CH­I­NA WO­R­K­I­NG ON A PL­AN TO SC­R­AP CO­V­ID FL­I­G­HT SU­S­P­E­N­S­I­O­NS. FL­I­G­HT BAN MO­VE PA­RT OF CH­I­NA PL­AN TO NO­R­M­A­L­I­ZE AIR TR­A­V­EL.

Sifu said

Opec and russia if in their right mind will not allowed us to replenish their reserve below their selling price. Sell high buy low is not an option.

Sifu said

There are 3 big event in 2023 which is very bullish for commodity especially cpo.

In 2023 cpi will 100% drop because 2022 base data is very high.
So comparative figure wil show big drop in inflation.
So did the real price come down.The answer is no.
Your Roti canai seller doesnt know who is fed.When they raise price they never come down.
In other words we get used to the price already.
If fed follow cpi they will be hard to continue qt.

2. B40 implementation.
History states thats b20 base is 2k never broke even when oil went negative.
b30 base is 3k.
b40 base will be 4k.
Plantation stock valuation is still at 2k to 2.5k.

3.China reopening.
100% will reopen in 2023.China is already preparing for their nasal vaccine for mass use by training their grassroot community.With 3 layers protection the ccp is ready to reopen gradually. Ccp is actually helping to control the hike of commodity price by closing borders and zero covid policy.
Once they open up. All plan by us and fed will be ineffective.
They can jack up to 5 to 6% rate but oil still high price. Probably they can try up to 20% like in 70s.

Sifu said

Get ready for oil above 100 and cpo above 5k by end of year.

Sifu said

Fed keep raise rate.
Oil and vegetable oil not dropping and gaining strength.

Smell of stagflation like 70s. Commodity like palm oil is king in stagflation. Fund already positioning for stagflation as they know rate hike in current scenario wont bring down inflation but only worsen it eventually leading to stagflation.

Smell of bond bursting. Usd is going down even a rate hike cannot save.

Sifu said

Once b40 launch.no more supply glut in any event of recession, depression or watever in the newr future.Unless indonesia ban export for 2 mths which is unlikely. The target is b100 for indonesia very ambitious. Basically limited palm oil for export in future unless production x 2.

https://en.tempo.co/read/1652143/esdm-ministry-upbeat-b40-can-be-implemented-in-early-2023

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Energy, Resources, and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif shared optimism that the use of 40 percent biodiesel (B40) fuel can be implemented in early 2023. B40 means it contains a 40% blend of palm oil-derived biofuel and 60% diesel.

“B40 is ready to be launched in January, inshallah, depending on the test results. We’re optimistic,” said Arifin on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. He said the road test has been carried out since the end of July 2022 and is targeted to end this month.

Based on the results of current monitoring and evaluation, he continued, B40 is believed to answer energy needs and support efforts to reduce vehicle emissions. From the series of trials carried out, the government hoped that the B100 target can be achieved in the future.

Sifu said

You can shout whatever you want.
But you cannot change mthly trend reversal since 2008.Its a mega trend that all fund must obey.

Sifu said

Long term elliot wave wont go wrong.

The monthly chart above shows the five waves advance from 3.1.2008 and the different degrees within the cycle. The idea is overall bullish for the USDX. However, there are two possibilities for the Dollar Index. It can make a significant correction soon and drop hard to correct the whole cycle. Alternatively, it will just correct the cycle since the lows at 02.01.2018 and continue higher.


https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/usdx-the-index-structure-showing-an-opportunity-to-buy-commodities/

The $USDX Monthly charts overlay with $XAGUSD (Silver); as we can see, the metal should not be trading below zero and has been holding the lows, while the USDX is close to a peak. Understanding and reading the market makes a huge difference in being on the right side and knowing which instruments to trade.

In Conclusion: 2023 might provide a pullback in the USDX, which means higher $EURUSD, $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD, $GBPUSD, and higher commodities. Commodities should hold stronger against the $USDX, and provide a better buying into 2023.

Sifu said

Meanwhile bloomberg agriculture index had breakout from 14 yrs secular bear trend since 2008. Reversal of tech to tradtional is in progress.

In the past two weeks, U.S. stocks have told two stories, one is the bull market joy story of the rising valuation of traditional blue-chip stocks led by the Dow; the other is the continuous decline of growth stocks represented by big technology, and the decline is enough to wake up the market veterans about 2000 Memories of the 2019 tech stock crash. The "scissors difference" between blue-chip and technology indicates that when the new cycle starts, everything will be different.

Art Hogan further explained: "Looking back, this market, and the broader economy, is starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 pattern, when extreme tech weakness impacted the major indices, but the performance of more traditional parts of the market and economy was better."

Dan Suzuki said investors should keep in mind that "a bear market always heralds a change in the industry leading the next cycle". That means tech won't be the leader when the next bull market begins.

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

“If the green corridor is closed big and small farms alike will go bankrupt, everyone understands that," says Viktor Bykov, CEO of Tecom Agro Group Ltd, an agricultural company that leases 26,000 hectares of farmland in and around the Odesa region. 

Still, in a war Putin has pitched to the developing world as a struggle against Western domination, he could settle for the disruption caused even with the grain deal in place; ending it would risk turning more nations against him, driving global prices for wheat, sunflower oil and other food staples back to the stratospheric levels seen in May.  

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63439760

https://gapki.id/en/news/22172/ri-to-start-commercial-production-of-palm-oil-gasoline-in-2024

Beside palm oil bio diesel.
Palm oil Bio gasoline on the way.

Sifu is correct again

Usd dxy double top going to 108 soon.
Vegetable oil is rallying and cpo is going to 5k.

Sifu is correct again.
Fed is softening on rate and yellen want buy bond to boost liquidity.

Sifu said

Big fund will be convinced of long term profitability on new range of cpo price above 4k.
Plantation new bull trend will commence after retracing from break out on 7 years down trend .

Cautious to tech sector as long term interest will be higher which means tech high valuation high pe will not be seen in next 7 years.
Fed will not be able to give ultra low rate to zero again in future as usd will be ditched by many countries as it progresses to lose its major reserve currency st
To maintain usd strength long term  higher rate in average is expected.

China is plotting a big digital shift to eyuan which will float its renminbi  along its belt and road countries,brics and allies based on major payment platform using wechat,alipay etc on a flip of button once it is ready.That will pose a very big challenge and a deathblow to dollar hedgemony.

Expecting Us to duplicate a ukraine war in taiwan in 1 to 3 years. Avoid tech stock it will be a poison to hold in future just like glove in the past 2 years.

As usual from covid to financial crisis to  war (nuclear even).
Palm oil will be resilient and profitable.

Sifu said

If you looked back in 2014 jun, Tech index breakout and started a  7 years bull run until  2021 Dec.
Coincidentally plantation index peaked and  started bear trend on 2014 jun for 7 yrs as well.
Fund switch from plantation to tech during this past 7 years?
Expecting Tech to be on bear trend going forward as fund continue to unwind into other sector especially plantation.

Plantation index will officially end its 8yrs downtrend on mthly chart since 2014 Jun.The index started its break out in feb 2022 marking the darkhorse rising .
After its 6 mths retracement ended within this 2 mths above macd 0 axis.
1st bull run cycle since 2014 for the next 10 yrs will commence in 2023.

Sifu said

Dxy going 108 by end of mth.
Oil in reverse head and shoulder.
Commodity is rebounding.
End of mth will show reverse bullish engulfing in mthly candle.
All the fake q blocking.

Sifu said

You must know palm oil and other vegetable oil is so strong because it is the renewable source of replacement for fossil fuel in both fuel consumption and industrial application.
In future more and more bio plastic will be in the market.
Probably one day glove will be produced from palm oil or other plant based oil.
Usa is even using soybean oil to repair road now in latest development.
The market not even knew that and not pricing in the future.

Sifu said

Most likely Tsh will have a bullish engulfing candle on mthly chart.
Very strong reversal signal.

Sifu said
If fed continue to raise rate.Bond will explode.
If it happen all fund in banking and insurance will run to plantation.
As plantation is oversold,resilient in all crisis,high dividend yield like bank,cheap,huge in capital size which is enough to hold the bucket from escaping fund.

IF FED CUT OR STOP RATE. FUNDS FROM BANKING WILL RUN TOO AS VALUATION PEAK.
SO WHAT DO YOU THINK.

Sifu said

In palm oil stock history.
After mthly chart breakout ,it will have a huge retrracement of 6 mths.
After that it will resume its testing of previous high in 6 mths time.
It will hover there band trading for 6 mths.
After that it will break all time high. 2023 probably will see break all time high.

Sifu said.

During war and financial crisis.
Energy ,food and necessity metals and commodities are real money.

Sifu is correct again.

Usd is crashing.Bond is crashing.
Financial crisis is coming.
Commodity is spiking again.
Cpo above 4k again as predicted by sifu.
Fed would be nuts to keep on rate hike.
They will be dead before other countries explode this time if they keep on rate hike.
Their inflation excuse is just a smokescreen.
Now if they continue rate hike.
Commodity will rise because of bond explode.
If they discontinue rate hike.
Commodity will rise due to QE.
So either way commodity will rise.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesias-august-palm-oil-exports-433-million-tonnes-association-3001626

Meanwhile in August, the world's biggest palm oil exporter produced 4.31 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, up from 3.8 million tonnes in July.

The jump in exports, however, has helped cut stocks to 4.04 million tonnes by the end of August, compared to 5.91 million tonnes a month earlier.

By now in Oct. Indonesia stockpile would have already dropped below 4 tons.
There is no more stockpile glut anymore and back to normal.
Indonesia will soon give huge discount no more since no more glut.
No reason for the wide discount with other vegetable oil.

Sifu said.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/13/plantations-defensive-amid-uncertainty

When you see these news, you smell where the big fund is going.
Why is kyy suddenly shouting bearish on palm oil now.

Palm oil is the only sector that thrive amid covid,ukraine war and fed crazy rate hike and coming financial crisis while had not been bought up by big fund.

Global finance vs global energy: who will come out on top?
https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/16825

Long term case for usd is bearish as deglobalisation and dedollarisation speeds up.
Long term bull case for commodity as western colonial ways of sourcing cheap commodity using usd hegemony is over.
Now is commodity producing country against western power.
Even indonesia a major commodity country is ditching usd now.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/economics/bank-indonesia-calls-against-payments-in-us-dollars

You can suppress demand for a while but not forever.
When demand rebound the price is going higher then before just like post covid.

Sifu said every palm oil importer are busy stocking up before indonesia implement b40.
According to history,price rose 20 to 30% before b20 and b30.

Sifu is correct.
Usd double topping signal appear.
Commodity double bottom signal appear.

Sifu is correct again.
Interest rate hike cant solve inflation.
But will prolong inflation by destroying supply chain further with tight liquidity.

Very soon fed will come out with excusses again to reduce reliance on interest rate .Biden will come out other pattern to reduce inflation.

The retire sifu got no student or followers.
He said he doesnt need them.

A quick guide.

When indonesia implement B20 bio diesel
cpo shoot past 2k
When implement b30
Cpo shoot past 3k
B40 implementing in dec
Cpo will maintain above 4k
If indonesia implement b50 in a few yrs
Indonesia stockpile will fall below 1 million ton
And not enough for export unless production is increase.

PALM OIL'S WIDENING DISCOUNT TO SOYOIL TO BOOST FOURTH QUARTER DEMAND

10/11/2022

MUMBAI, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global palm oil purchases are rising this quarter as buyers take advantage of the tropical oil's widening discount to rival soyoil which should entice price sensitive consumers and boost biofuel usage, according to senior industry officials.

The highest discount in a decade would divert demand towards palm oil from soyoil and sunflower oil and help top producer Indonesia and Malaysia bring down stockpiles that were weighing on the benchmark futures..

Palm oil for shipment to India in November is being offered at $941 a tonne including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), compared with $1,364 for crude soyoil, according to six palm oil traders that participate in the market. That $423 discount is the most in 10 years, the dealers said.

Sunflower oil is being offered at $1,400 a tonne, the dealers said. A year ago, palm oil's discount to soyoil was around $100 per tonne.

"Palm oil demand has been rising from almost every country. Traders are buying more either for food purpose or for biofuels," said Pradeep Chowdhry, managing director of Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt Ltd, a leading Indian importer.

Top palm oil producer Indonesia's efforts to bring down stockpile by increasing exports are keeping the prices under pressure for the time being even as rival oils are moving higher, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Indonesia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of July rose to 5.91 million tonnes from around 4 million tonnes at the end of 2021 as Jakarta imposed restrictions on exports in the first half of 2022.

Palm oil's hefty discount is now prompting key buyers such as India, Pakistan, the European Union and Bangladesh to increase purchases for shipments for the quarter ending in December, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

India's palm oil imports in September jumped to 1.2 million tonnes, the highest in a year, and the country could import 3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, the dealer said.

BIOFUEL DEMAND

The rebound in global energy prices, which rose further after a decision by major oil producers to cut output, has also increased palm oil consumption for biofuels.

"Lots of palm oil is getting consumed for energy purpose since there is tight supply of heating oil and diesel in Europe," said Chowdhry of Gemini.

European buyers are making palm oil purchases for November and December shipments as blending palm oil has become profitable because of the rally in energy prices, said a senior official with a Malaysian palm oil producer.

Soyoil prices have been supported by high consumption in the United States for biodiesel and that is keeping soyoil's premium intact, the official said.

Soybean oil is used as a feed stock to produce biodiesel.

In the past few months China's palm oil buying was lower than the last year, but this could jump in coming months as stocks are running low, said a Kuala Lumpur-based palm oil trader.

"Chinese buyers have started making inquiries. They are interested in palm oil since other oils are very expensive," the dealer said.

Robust shipments in the fourth quarter will bring down stocks in producing countries and that will eventually move palm oil prices higher, said Chowdhry of Gemini.

"The current discount would go with falling stocks and we could see a normal discount of around $200,"

When fed increase rate. Usd cant break new high while palm oil cant break new low. Divergent.
Theres not much room for fed.
What will happen if fed stop increase rate and start decrease rate.

Time will tell.
Lets see in 2023.

As predicted by sifu.

TECH IS GLOVE 2.0. Tech pe shld be 7 to 10.
Any above are bubble.
A 5 yrs downtrend is coming for tech.
Next to crash is banking as financial crisis is coming.

Plantation is the only safe haven and defensive investment.
2023 onward is the year for food and agriculture.
5 yrs bull trend is coming

JAKARTA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia has raised its 2022 biodiesel allocation to 11.03 million kilolitres amid expectations of rising demand in the fourth quarter while it extends an export levy waiver to maintain price stability, a senior minister said on Monday.

The allocation of biodiesel, which is made from palm oil in Indonesia, will be increased from 10.15 million kilolitres, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said in a statement.

Indonesia has a mandatory B30 programme, where 30% of the fuel is palm-oil based, and post-pandemic economic recovery is boosting demand for the fuel, he said.

The world's top palm oil producer has also decided to extend its export levy waiver until Oct. 31, Airlangga added.

"The extension of $0 levy is intended to maintain the current momentum, where the price of crude palm oil is starting to stabilise, the price of cooking oil starts to fall, and the price of fresh fruit bunches begins to rise," he said.

The world's top palm oil exporter has waived palm oil export levy since mid-July to encourage export of the edible oil amid a build-up of domestic stock caused by an export ban in May that was imposed to control cooking oil prices. The finance ministry regulation detailing the levy waiver extension has not yet been made public.

Sifu said

2030 ,100 billion yuan biodiesel market .

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, China's diesel consumption in the transportation sector was 98.67 million tons. According to the EU region's 10% biodiesel addition ratio, China's biodiesel demand space can reach 9.867 million tons. According to the 5% addition ratio of B5 biodiesel piloted in Shanghai, there is also nearly 5 million tons of increase in China's biodiesel demand. According to the current price, the domestic demand + export potential market size of China's biodiesel industry in 2030 is close to 100 billion yuan. If China's biodiesel addition policy is successfully implemented, China will turn from an exporter of biodiesel to a huge demand market and importer.

生物柴油出口创新高

一、出口生物柴油创历史新高：据中国海关数据,7月中国生物柴油出口金额3.69亿美元，同比增117%，创历史单月最高。也使得1-7月出口金额达16.4亿美元(2021年全年为17.99亿美元)，，全年历史新高已成定局。

1）欧洲能源危机不断发酵，根据媒体报道以德国为例，目前柴油取暖为大众较为接受的方式之一，其拥有对基础设施要求较低同时具备价格优势，但缺点为需要额外的储藏柴油的空间且味道较重。

二、什么是生物柴油：目前主流的生物柴油主要有：第一代生物柴油是动植物油脂（脂肪酸甘油三酯）与醇类在酸（硫酸）、碱（氢氧化钠，固体碱）、生物酶等物理化学催化作用下发生酯化反应得到脂肪酸甲酯。第二代生物柴油就是通过加氢工艺脱除油脂中的氧和部分碳生成的烃类，其组成和结构与石化柴油类似，但对工艺水平和设备的先进性要求较高。

1）性能上可对石化柴油形成替代：历经多年发展，现阶段生物柴油的燃料特性已与石油基柴油接近，且具备部分备传统石化柴油不具备的优点。其闪点比石化柴油高，更加安全可靠；含硫量低，使得燃烧时SO2和硫化物的排放可减少约30%。不仅可作燃料又可作为添加剂促进燃烧效果，同时更加节能降耗。除了做公交车等柴油机的替代燃料之外，还可以作为海洋运输、燃料发电厂等非道路用柴油机的替代燃料。 



三、欧盟政策加码需求大涨：每使用1吨生物柴油，大约可以减排2-2.5吨二氧化碳。目前，欧盟是全球最大的生物柴油消费市场。由于其在碳减排和环保方面表现优异，欧盟已经把生物燃料作为主要替代能源，相关政策法规陆续出台，鼓励生物柴油市场的发展。

截至2021年欧盟生物柴油行业支持政策

1）值得一提的是由于激进的气候政策，欧盟既目前每年约从外进口生物柴油300 万吨，其中约有30%来自中国，据测算，2030年欧盟生物柴油市场需求有望达到 2200 万吨，其中或将从我国进口300万吨。

2）2021年全球生物柴油消费量为4223.46万吨，过去10年复合增长率 6.14%。欧盟2020年的消费量占全球的35%，美国、印尼分别以19%和16%分列二、三位。 券商预计，至2025年，全球生物柴油产量及消费量将达近5850吨/年和5570吨/年。



2）自2020年年中以来，生物柴油价格上涨明显。2017-2020 年一代生物柴油价格稳定在 900-1000 美元/吨，自2020年5月后迅速上涨，2022年6月9日一代生物柴油（FA­ME）的价格已达到1810美元/吨，较2017年同期价格（882 美元/吨）涨幅超100%。



四、国内市场存巨大潜在需求：2022年出台的《十四五生物经济规划》和《“十四五” 可再生能源发展规划》均提出要鼓励生物柴油行业的发展。目前，上海已经率先试点生物柴油添加政策，2018年开始向社会车辆销售B5生物柴油，截至2020年底，上海已经形成了3个生物柴油调配中心，每年供应40万-60万吨B5柴油，覆盖了市区二百多个加油站，可供应约1400万辆车次。

1）据国家统计局统计，2019年，中国交通运输领域柴油消费量为9867万吨， 按照欧盟地区对柴油中生物柴油10%的添加比例测算，中国生物柴油需求量空间可 达 986.7 万吨。按上海试行的B5生物柴油5%的添加比例测算，中国生物柴油需求量增量空间亦有近 500 万吨，按照现价计算，2030年中国生物柴油行业内需+出口潜在市场规模接近千亿人民币。若中国生物柴油添加政策顺利落地，中国将从生物油脂出口国转而成为巨大的需求市场和进口国。

Sifu said.

Fed hawkish remark slam the stock market but commodity like grains food and energy rally.

Shortsighted policy

The short-term case against commodities playing out in these corrections is the decision by central banks, most notably the Federal Reserve, to prioritise inflation-fighting over growth. Just as Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s, Fed chairman Jay Powell has decided that maximum sustainable employment must for now play second fiddle to the war on prices.

Panadol solution

But there is a longer term case for commodities, made by resources bulls like Goldman Sachs’s Jeff Currie. It pre-dates and will outlast current recession fears.

He argues that Fed-induced slowdowns can only ever tame the symptom — inflation.

They are INCAPABLE of addressing the underlying driver of sustainably higher commodity prices, which is underinvestment in the production of sufficient energy and other resources. The imbalances causing the cost of living crisis are physical and supply-driven. They cannot be resolved by destroying demand.

The world is anyway very different from that of 40 years ago. When Volcker jacked interest rates up to choke off the inflation which had scarred the previous decade, he did so after years of rising capital investment. 

The fall in demand that he engineered combined with adequate supply to quickly bring the market back into balance. That is not the case today after years in which capital has for too long been directed away from real physical assets. We are reaping the harvest of that misallocation.

Higher rate lower Capex. Prolonged supply driven inflation.

A key risk facing policy makers now is that the higher interest rates required to stifle demand will at the same time prevent the investment in new capacity that might solve the supply shortage.

This is a recipe for stagflation — persistently higher prices caused by inadequate supply and flagging demand as central banks double down on their attempt to tame inflation.


Populist policy

And it is not just monetary policy that risks worsening the supply-demand balance and stoking persistent inflation. Fiscal policy, driven as it is by political rather than economic imperatives, is pushing governments to simultaneously support the hardest hit consumers (thus slowing or preventing the required demand destruction) and to impose politically palatable but blunt windfall taxes that reduce the incentive for companies to solve the supply side of the equation.

Greenflation and clmate change

Another reason to expect commodity prices to remain elevated for the foreseeable future is that demand will stay high for reasons that have nothing to do with the economic cycle but instead reflect the unstoppable clean energy transition.

One of the ironies of the move to a more sustainable energy framework is that in the short to medium term it will be extremely resource intensive. Demand for both hydrocarbons (in the form of plastics and other refined products) and for many metals — principally but not exclusively copper — will remain high for many years to come. Unless there is a meaningful supply-side response, the impact on prices is just Economics 101.

Post qe in 2008, between 2010 to 2014 crude oil maintained average around 100 for 5 years.
Probably this time will last 7 years. 2021 to 2027.
High Crude oil  lasted 5 years while high palm oil (2k to 4k) lasted 12 years before broke new high again in 2022.
Crude oil went to negative in 2020(worst in history) but palm oil remain in 2k region never went back to 800.

This is just the beginning of the revenge of old economy.
And all the big fund are gradually moving out from new economy where they had been for the past 15 years.

Vice Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) Togar Sitanggang said Indonesia needs to increase palm oil production in order to implement B100 mandatory program. The program is estimated to absorb at least 60 million tons palm oil per year. Currently, total production of palm oil, including palm kernel oil,  in Indonesia reached 42 million tons per year from about 15 million hectares plantation. “We produce 42 million tons per year. Whether the number is enough or not, it depends on how we use it. If we use in processed food only, I think it might be enough.
But if we use as source of energy, the number is not enough. If we adopt B100, we need more production.


“At present, we have reached 6.01 million kiloliters B20. Later on, for B30, let’s say it could reach 13 million kiloliters. Then with B100, maybe we will also reduce CPO exports overseas to fulfill domestic needs. We just have to see which countries need Indonesian palm oil,” he said.

During the soft launch and first trial of B100, the minister filled up a four-wheeler tractor with B100 while demonstrating its eco-friendly advantages, such as not producing smoke, to the media.

B100 products are one of the innovations introduced by the Ministry of Agriculture through the Agricultural Research and Development Agency (Balitbangtan). The agency’s researchers developed a multifunctional biodiesel reactor that had reached its 7th generation.

No short q at 1.08 either..likely close above 1.10 today

If you notice no rss idss or pdt today for tsh. Very abnormal.
Probably all short would be covered soon or already covered.

Sifu swid.

Bill gates,Bezo ,Warren etc are investing heavily in old economy like agriculture and oil and gas.Funds are flowings from new economy to old economy gradually in the coming years. Funds of such great magnitude will usually take 3 yrs.

Sifu said.

Us agriculture commodity will break ath in 2023 due to drought climate change and biden clean energy act.
Thqts why bill gates and bezo are largest farmer now in us.

USDA Begins Accepting Applications for $100 Million in Biofuel Infrastructure Grants

Funding Will Increase Availability of Clean Fuels Across the Nation

Release & Contact Info

Press Release

Release No. 0184.22

Contact: USDA Press
Email: press@usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23, 2022 – U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced that USDA is accepting applications for $100 million in grants to increase the sale and use of biofuels derived from U.S. agricultural products.

USDA is making the funding available through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP). This program seeks to market higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel by sharing the costs to build and retrofit biofuel-related infrastructure such as pumps, dispensers and storage tanks.

“The Biden-Harris Administration recognizes that rural America is the key to reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and giving Americans cleaner, more affordable options at the pump,” Vilsack said. “Biofuels are homegrown fuels. Expanding the availability of higher-blend fuels is a win for American farmers, the rural economy and hardworking Americans who pay the price here at home when we depend on volatile fuel sources overseas.”

This additional funding follows an April investment of $5.6 million through HBIIP that is expected to increase the availability of biofuels by 59.5 million gallons per year in California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and South Dakota.

In June, USDA also announced that it had provided $700 million in relief funding to more than 100 biofuel producers in 25 states who experienced market losses due to the pandemic.

These investments reflect the goals of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which addresses immediate economic needs and includes the largest ever federal investment in clean energy for the future. The law includes another $500 million aimed at increasing the sale and use of agricultural commodity-based fuels. This funding will allow USDA to provide additional grants for infrastructure improvements related to blending, storing, supplying and distributing biofuels.

Gas prices continue to fall, at the fastest pace in over a decade. Biofuels are an important part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to lowering gas prices for the American people.

Background

Under HBIIP, USDA provides grants to transportation fueling and distribution facilities. These grants lower the out-of-pocket costs for businesses to install and upgrade infrastructure and related equipment.

The $100 million available now will support a variety of fueling operations, including filling stations, convenience stores and larger retail stores that also sell fuel. The funds will also support fleet facilities including rail and marine, and fuel distribution facilities, such as fuel terminal operations, midstream operations, distribution facilities as well as home heating oil distribution centers.

The grants will cover up to 50% of total eligible project costs – but not more than $5 million – to help owners of transportation fueling and fuel distribution facilities convert to higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel. These higher-blend fuels must be greater than 10% for ethanol and greater than 5% for biodiesel.

sifu said

Commodity bull run is starting again.

This time lead by
1. OPEC disatisfied with US shorting the oil future and decide to defend by planning to cut production.
2. China aggressive cut interest rate to spur economy activity will spur demand in mid to long term.

If add back 1 time impairment profit is still 100 million.
Core operation profit improved. Nothing wrong.

Sifu said .

For the past 100 yrs of cpo history.
When price broke 800, many will say will drop back below 400.
When price broke 1800, many will say will drop back tbelow 800
When price broke 4000 resistance ,many still say will drop back below1800.


Every time it broke the resistance.
Palm oil stock will also break resistance in 1 to 2 yrs time.
Why so long,because big fund will only buy for long term when got consistent profit.
They as well will dump during initial break out.
Look at klk in 2008.
Broke 5 to 12 drop back to 5 go back to 12 and broke the resitance 2 yrs later and never went back down below 12 until now.Those bought klk at 12 before it went back to 5 were profitable 2 yrs later in 2010 when it broke the resistance at 12.

Palm oil company must have patience. Because big fund are all very patient.
Of course if want quick profit then dont  invest palm oil.

Do you know all efb stock in malaysia are all sold out at very good pricing because many company are investing in bio product to move away from fossil fuel.This is the future.
Imagine all fossil product are made from plant based in future. Just like ev investor imagine all old car convert into ev car.They are both future trend.

Sifu said.

Many people thought tsh  land sale is  nothing just a simple business disposal for profit.
But sifu said on superficial level its so.
But he said there are  more to ponder.
So many palm oil company in indonesia .Why tsh.
So many plot of land in tsh.Why pick a non productive land?

Sifu personally felt that everyone knows why tsh is picked.
The non productive piece of land was picked because location is best and non productive so the cost of land  wont be too  high for acquisition. If its a highly productive land probably might fetch a much higher price.

Then there are proximity value advantage to other tsh land nearby.
The Bulungan Regency land sale was obviously picked with strategic advantage to tsh.
The plot of land will be the seeding land for nusantara heart.
It will house nusantara green power generation industrial park in future where international company like tesla will set up their plant here or nearby to tap on green energy in future .

So you can see whoever got to contribute this initial seeding land got huge advantage.
Of course tsh and indonesia bosses will pick a seeding land which is nearby to own land.Do u think they will pick a land near to klk or competitor ? If there is.

And coincidentally. Boss up his daily acquisition to 500k when the nusantara masterplan  and the acquisition of seeding land is confirmed.

Sifu said.

Those anti palm oil are all brainwashed by western media. At least palm tree absorb more co2 then soybean and sunflower. Birds and wild boar can be found. Look at sunflower and soybean crop. Not even insect as too much pesticide .

Sifu said.

Thats why plantation company buy land when qe start with ultra low interest and sell some to cover most of their land purchases profit when land price jacked up due to qe.

Like tsh sell 1 non productive land to cover 10 borrowed productive land is super smart.

Sifu said.
Simple logic.
Cheap land cheap palm oil.
When land become super expensive due to qe,it warrant a high oil price.
At 2k palm oil is making loss if u buy a piece of land to grow now.
So u need 4k and above to expand.
But now problem is even with 4 k cannot expand much.
So the price will bounce around 4 to 5 k to find equilibrium and to firm within new box.
By that time after few yrs.Consumer already used to rm2.00 roti canait.And fed will start qe again. History repeat.

Thats what happen to palm oil over the past 100 yrs.