Most of the local plantation writers & analysis covering the sector are key board writers repeating past statistical models. You can see all this people{s} attending palm oil conference on the side lines asking planter's tips and waiting for experienced overseas speakers giving their views on our palm oil outlook. Thomas Mielke, James Fry, Dorab Mistry are some of the more prominent overseas based speaker's which our analysts looked in awe for their views. USDA agricultural report is a respectable & comprehensive report and analysis on current weather, planting trends, expected yields and demand & consumption. Overseas based analyst on soft commodities have already revised upwards their price projection of CPO to between 6,000 {FH 22} and 5,000 {LH 22}. Citing SBO premium of USD 200 per tonne over palm oil { meaning CPO is cheapest available alternative} Yet our local analyst is still netrual on the palm oil sector. I guess they have missed out the palm oil rally and continue sit it out again. PIVB is overweight and their price forecast is at $4.300. Cimb is netrual on the sector and their price forecast is at 4,100. Look at how the 2 differ in their recommendations. First one overweight at $4,300.Second one neutral at 4,100. First 4 mths { Jan - Apr} average recorded CPO
Jan 5,354 per tonne
Feb 5,930 per tonne
Mar 6,867per tonne
Apr 6,900 per tonne

Hypothetically IOI have the means, recourses and financial means to acquire BPlant. IOI have disposed of their stalk in Bunge and have the war chest for any new acquisition. We must remember Glic link funds { eg EPF, PNB, KWAP, TabHaji } hold substantial stake in IOI Corp. Epf {12%},PNB {8%},KWAP {3%} and others {2%} Foreign registered shareholder's hold around {10%} Local funds holds another {5%}. Lee family interest another 50%.

Those IDSS sellers who short BP in the morning needs to cover back their position before 430. Intra day contra

We won't know how the funds trade. But hypothetically what will happens if LTAT later turn buyer before BPlant declared a special dividend plus interim dividend paid out after the Hari Raya break? Boustead holdings hold 57 % & LTAT holds another 12% of Bplant

Price up or high/low from a bar chart, technical or statistics is a very intristic case. SBO year low { Year 2020} fell to 25 cents per IB and close the year at 42 cents per IB. Slowly ascending to the next gap or uptrend at 55 - 70 cents { 2021} SBO is now trading at betw 70 cents to a high of 84 cents recently. CPO fell to a new low of MYR 1,800 per tonne { in 2018 commodity slump} before slowly inching up to 2,800 per tonne. Later climbing back 3,500 - 3,800 price mark when soft oils & other commodity prices gap up. CPO is not a price marker but follows the trend of other soft oils. Of late CPO price has sustain its uptrend online with prices trading between MYR 5,500 - 6,500 and hit a high of 8,000 per tonne following the Ukraine crisis. We are not alone. Look at Mineral oil from a low of USD 20 per barrel. Brent crude oil has rocket up to a year high of USD 135 per barrel. Now holding at betw USD 105-110 mark. Jim Rodgers said nobody can predict the future. But in commodities trade there is no high or low. only how high the price can gap up or down

Sri Mulyani Indonesia Finance Minister at IMF G20 meeting said the ban on export's is necessary. The ban will hurt other countries. Read her words carefully. Indonesia since 2018 has stopped issued new permits for oil palm plantings {Indonesia has limited abilities to increase palm oil production} we are often blamed for deforestation & destroying natural habitats of endangered animals such as orang utans} often portrayed by the Western NGO

Plantations { CPO } was our country key industry & mainstay in Malaysia when the 97-98 Asian Financial crisis hit our shores. It was a valuable history lesson where most industries e.g. electronics, banks, manufacturing all badly hit. The windfall tax was introduced during this time and the word `golden crop`was conined for oil palm

SBO hit a new record high of 83.21 cents per IB in the US after Jokowi news announcement. Adverse drought has hit the prime growing areas in Argentina, Brazil and Canada respectively. Argentina in March has briefly stopped their soy export sales before upping the tax rate to 33% from 30%. US Biofuel producers are ramping up thier production to cater the upsurge in demand for the peak summer travel season. Veg oils are now in a very very tight spot with no other large alternatives supplies in sight. Please do your own research {Not a buy call} but food inflation is here to stay

UP oil palm estates are located around Teluk Intan app 37,800 hectares with an integrated rail system linking their estates and Oil Mills. The fruits are harvested and deliver to the Mills efficiently. Their rail system is unique due to geographical nature of the planted areas. Higher extraction rates are achieved using this particular mode of transportation. Their rail model is special and very unique. A good learning experience to visit their estates

Do your homework & try not to over speculate beyond your means. Warren Buffet said invest in what you know and what you have

GLNT my apology. SWK plant trading at betw $3.15-3.30 in Feb - Mar 2022

The CPO price discount is now much higher. Higher freight & ship transport cost will worsened the gap between SBO vs palm oil. In Rotterdam. SBO is offer around USD 2.000 per tonne vs 1,700 Malaysia CPO

HS plantation is one of the biggest oil palm grower in Sabah. Total oil palm planted areages app 35,435 hectares {87,560 acres} out of total land bank area measuring app 39,727 hectares. The estates and factories are not fragmented or located in different regions unlike most others planters. The close proximity and geographical of their Mils and estates gave HSP an added advantage on cost savings. In fact HSP is one of the biggest supplier of sustainable certified palm producer. Figs are extracted from the Annual Report

Sunflower is a spring crop { planted between April - May} where the most ideal or optimum window period for the farmers to work the fields. Eastern part of Ukraine produces about 52%-55% of their sunflower yearly production { near access to the Blacksea Ports} With the war & ongoing military attrition at the Eastern Front Region { where the Russian presence are focusing on the Eastern side and the Blacksea ports} Hard for the farmers to get access to the fields. Not to mention scarcity of diesel fuel needed to run the machinery and tractors. Disruption in manpower, supply of seeds and access to the ports are all at risks. Just to share my 2 sen worth

Indirectly giving Malaysian companies an edge in the exports market { sales of palm related products }

Indonesia CPO export's may be impacted & lower in the coming days following irregularities on export permits. President Jokowi announced special investigation by AG on allegations on Wilmar, Muslim Mas and Permata Hijau { Indonesia biggest palm conglomerate} on their export permit licensing

Careful guys. new id calviniswrong {2post} not the calvintaneng

SWK was trading at around $3.20 - $ 3.40 when CPO was trading at a high high betw $4,000 - 4,300 in early Feb 2021. SWK is still trading at $2.90+ with CPO prices at a new high of between $6,500 - 6,700. sounds illogical?

Always good to lock in part of your profit. Everybody have their own investment criteria. It's all depends on your outlook and your entrypoint.

Jan - Mar { 1st Qtr production } in line with trade forecast
March. 66,856 Mt FFB
T/Date. 195,882 Mt FFB
CPO. 39,176 Mt {Est}

Palm olein is the cheapest & most ideal for deep frying vs Soybean oil, canola oil, corn oil. Asian diet, Indian & sub continent, middle East and western diet all are different and varied. Fast food chain use palm olein for their deep fried properties. Other palm related products are used in biscuits, noodles, butter, cosmetics etc. Over a period of 30-40,years starting from 70's palm has overtaken SBO as the leading edible oil in the soft oil market. With the increasing usage of bio fuel ethanol. Palm has evolved as an alternative bio fuel. The price of Rotterdam Malaysia CPO is around USD 1730 {FOB} per tonne. Indonesia CPO is at USD 1750 {FOB} per tonne vs Rotterdam SBO price at USD1,950 per tonne. Kernel oil is more expensive due to the limited production. Rape seed oil, coconut oil or other nuts seed have limited access & exports in the world edible oil market

Just be patient. Wait for further new announcements

Gloves manufacturing machinery can be install in a short period of time { start up } The dipping plants & glove processor are produced and manufactured in China. All they need & required is the rubber materials and nitrate to manufacture the non surgical gloves. It's estimated the start up time or turn around time for a rubber glove manufacturing plant can be as fast between 5 - 8 months. Whereas for oil palm planting { green field or brown field} large tract of land is needed. Not to mention the Oil Mills, plant nursery, storage, installation facilities at the ports need to be up and running. It's take between 4 - 5 years between planting the oil palm seedlings before harvesting the young palm after 36 months. Plantation requires a long gestation period and a large capital outlay { buying the land} vs a gloves factory that can be on a rented piece of factory land. The tropical weather { in Indonesia and Malaysia} is the prefer choice.

Ahmad Nazim prior to his LTAT appointment was working in Singapore {since 2018} after leaving MARA in the island highly and competitive investment banking field. He was a Fulbright US scholar and comes with the right experience & International exposure. LTAT Board biggest single investment is the Boustead Group. Pressure & expectations is on him to deliver result { after LTAT /Boustead} dismal result for the past 3-4 years

US { Biden} extended the use of E15 { Biofuel } from June till September { Peak Summer } for ethanol blended bio fuel previously prohibited during the summer season. This was announced by Biden to lower the driving cost { fuel charges} corn farmers are the main beneficiary in the ethanol biofuel industry { indirectly driving additional demand for grains} this is positive for palm oil

Recent changes made at the Board & management level can revitalise the Bstead group. This giant congolemerate is like a sleeping giant { that holds deep value & valuables } that need to be unlocked.

Not really advisable to use only the recent qtr result earnings. It can be one off extra ordinary gains. Better used the company past dividend ratio vs management guidance or dividend policy. Last but not the least the company planted acreage and the location of their estates. Plantation land in the right growth area is a golden source of opportunity.

Bplant price trend has just started the uptrend. No sound minded fund's manager would sell short based on current pricing. Recent coverage of EPF selling in MARCH on certain KLSE counters was explained by their CEO. That EPF was mindful of the fund's net cash position { due to PM announcement on allowing members to withdraw additional $10,000 from their accounts} EPF investment board {CIO } and Treasury had to sell off certain local stocks and overseas holdings to standby for the members making additional withdrawal. They are not short selling. EPF has explained in details certain counters are hold for their dividend{s} pay out, certain counters as future growth stock and last but not the least certain counter are for trading. Their investment portfolio approach is govern by the Board internal SOP. External fund houses are also appointed by EPF to manage certain percentage of the shares local and foreign portfolio. EPF is the biggest institution fund in our local market. Their investment is for long term. Looking at growth, dividend and capital appreciation.

Tough question on B20 usage vs impact on palm oil stock ratio. Prior to 2018-2019. { Indonesia started the ball rolling on blended fuel} Dorab Mistry and James Fry call it the game changer. James Fry estimated Indonesia supply of cpo will be curtail by 500,000 tonnes { est } Malaysia was a non starter in the blended bio fuel game { due to our government fuel subsidy} Indonesia has progress to B30 from the intial B10 program. The Indonesia Estate fund initiated was to subside & expedite the blended fuel program. The aim is to stabilise cpo prices and earmark part of the oil production as a alternate fuel instead solely 100% as a food crop. Indonesia { Jokowi} also emphasise the need to preserve Indonesia foreign outflow of the country foreign exchange reserve. Indonesia is a net importer of mineral oil

Teck guan is not a pure plantation play. More on cocoa plus fertiliser trading.

Always good to lock in profitable trades. Paper gains vs actual realized gain is entirely different. Your risk appetite is the key

Digital bank seen as an alternative to the traditional brick & motar banking to the public. Maybe not able to accept or offer term FD, BA, LC, Guarantee or cheque writing facilities

It's going to be a long drawn out war between Ukraine and Russia unless one party accepts defeat or agreed to the Russia demands.

Rubber glove producers and plantations is completely different and operate in different segments. To start up a Plantation Operations you need to have a large reserve of greenfield or brownfield land. The gestation period for oil palm plants to mature and harvested { excluding building housing, irrigation, water reserve ponds, nursery and millings facilities} needs a period of 4 years. Whereas for a glove factory { all you need is to rent a piece of factory land, buy the dipping glove & packaging machinery} In China they can start up a glove factory within a 4-6 months time frame. China is one of the rubber glove line producer and machinery manufacturer. Whereas for Oil palm estates they can't start and replicate the exact operating & weather enviroment. 85%of the global palm oil production comes from Indonesia and Malaysia region. TG, Harta, Supermax & Kossan was the leading glove manufacturer prior to pandemic outbreak. The past 2 years we have seen the numbers of manufacturers quadraple 4times riding on the glove waves. Against palm oil limited growth in new plantings. China, US, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore have seen witness a big increase in glove capacity and players { leading to sharp drop in average selling price and new players undercutting prices} For palm oil and other soft oils { eg SBO, rapeseed oil, canola, corn} the spike in demand and generated a boom in commodities due to adverse weather, war, disruption in supply and plantings. Most critical & important palm oil is a food crop and also can be used a blended biofuel { B20 or B30}.

KYY is a shrewd investor. What he said may not necessarily reflect his own true investment portfolio. Why must he reveal his actual interest to you?

What Calvin mentioned is surprising true. Nobody wants to talk about rival SBO price is now trading at a premium betw USD 260-300 per tonne over Malaysia/Indonesia CPO. Instead certain parties citing high palm oil prices may.... and cause demand destruction. They have not cited other soft oils eg. Rapeseed oil, sunflower, canola oils & SBO is now all at high prices. Adverse weather has disrupted the plantngs of canola & soya bean crops. US farmers in the mid west have switch from soybean to wheat. Our media is biased in their palm oil reports { eg US seizing the 2 cargoes of shipped palm products} even now the US have not named or mentioned the company that shipped the cargo. Hopefully the new Plantation Minister can do more to address the one side reporting used by the western media. It's trade, economic & political interest to run down palm and maintain the eroding influence of soya. Unfortunately our media is siding with the Western backed NGO. Not a single NGO has blamed US cattle farming for its contribution on the green House effects instead blaming on palm.

MQ technical showing positive buy signals

March physical at MYR 6,700 per tonne. May FCPO position at MYR 6,300 per tonne. Brent Crude at USD 119 per barrel. Rival SBO oil at USD 1,985 per tonne {Rotterdam price} premium app at USD 260 - 280 over Malaysia /Indonesia CPO.

SWK plantations was incorporated in 1997 to take over the assets of SLDB { a Sarawak state govt initiative to spearhead the development of NCR lands and transformation of agricultural policy. The Sarawak State Financial Office holds app 35% with Ta Ann holding 30% and other state link corporations 5%. The BOD {consist of 7 members } which is quite small compared to other listed PLC. With the State government backing and the private initiative driven by Datuk Wong {Ta Ann} performance is at par with other listed plantation arms. Not a buy call but just sharing

Political parties are gearing up for a snap GE 15 election {dissolution of Parliament announcement} BN - UMNO win can be a feel good factor for the stock market. MOU signed between PH and ISMAIL end in June

KNM need to announce something substantial to move. A few million project will not have any impact for a PLC { my personal view }

After recent market correction. Palm is now trading at a discount vs SBO price { Rotterdam} SBO is price at US 1,990 vs US 1850 { Indonesia CPO} and US 1815 { Malaysia CPO} as at yesterday evening. Prices quoted CPO FOB Indonesia & Malaysia. Rotterdam SBO is on Ex mill basis

IPO staff{s} portion finance by the bankers. Very common for the IPO listings. Upon listing either you sell part of your entitlement allotment. Or continued paying the share financing. With Raya round the corner it makes sense for the factory hands to cash out part of the IPO profit

Part of the sold volume & quantity sold in the past 2 to 3 days {I believed} is the staff{s} IPO share allocations.

Bplant is a good dividend stock { good or bad times} their parent holdings Bstead { LTAT} needs the cash flow for their member's funds

PNB is a core investor. Next on board will be strings of institutional investor

Asked and learn what's the company product line. Technology stocks can be split into products upstream and downstream { same as plantations and O&G} counters} is it a niche player or just a plain HDD manufacturing plant

Yes. Health is also parameter for wealth. As we aged we need to Stay healthy & safe. Cheers friends

Syed Zainal is building a Dnex conglomerate for the past 2 years since his Dne
appointment to the Board.
congolemerate. He rope in CGP fund to facilitate the Silterra take-over. Next he convince Foxconn to take up a stake in DNex. Stopped the sale of Ping petroleum at the most appropriate time and indirectly enhanced DNex valuation. He is building big plans for DNex. Just wait for the forthcoming news announcement.

Fertilisers cannot be applied during the rainy period { planter's avoid & prefer not to waste the applications } Inddition fertiliser program can be halted temp for 10 - 12 months { due to unavoidable issue} without any significant impact on the trees. Smallholders are known to withhold their fertilisers for a period of more than 12- 18 months on their palms periodically { palm trees are hardly} they need only watering and sunlight { of course the fruits may be smaller} resulting in lower extractions. I have know smaller estates using loca chicken manure to replace straight fertilisers. Chicken manure is rich in NPK. Nitrogen, Phosphorus & Potassium. This is what the oil palm requires. Only drawback is workers manuring and smelly applications. Just to share my 2 sen view