@Lanmum

I think, I better do not give comment and sharing here anymore. If not later, there are people like Gardener come and attack me for no reason.

Sometime, very TL you know right.

Because my good intention to help everyone huat chai has been deemed as a bad thing.

@Pinky,

Accurate or not? Come, we learn together. Do not use "AUDIT". This sounds too serious man.

No kidding kidding one. Based on my investment experience and experience dealing with Syndicates, I could expect the patterns or behaviours of Fund Houses.

Good closing price at RM2.65.

Tomorrow, more and more drama will be performed by Sharks.

Let's aim for RM2.80 by end of this Friday if possible. If not, RM2.70 and slightly above is okay.



Pinky @auditorandconsultant

"There is a big road block at RM2.64 which has been set purposely by the Syndicates to trigger anxiety.

By end of today, the block or hindrance will be missing automatically."

At 4.50PM I will audit this statement of yours hehehehehe
27/04/2021 3:23 PM

I believe now Syndicates must be hating me very much.

I could see through their behaviour and tactics because of my working experience with Syndicates and Private Fund Houses last time with HK, SG and Cayman Island Fund Managers.

More and more tricks will come to trigger anxiety.

Come on Syndicates, I love Sharks, I love Sharks.

Use to make porridge is awesome.

Hahahahah

Stay calm and watch the movie or drama later.

More drama from today onwards, because the share price is going to skyrocket soon due to

1) potential good QR next month (May 2021)'
2) Potential good Dividend to be announced next month (May 2021)
3) potential marathon for Dividend Declaration (same like last year 2020)
4) potential good news to be made known due to the slow restoration of peace in Myanmar
5) higher demand in the usage of plastic packaging and stretch film due to covid-19

So many positive sentiments, I really find no reason on

1) why thong guan price cannot fly beyond RM3
2) why thong guan cannot be a choice of multibagger
3) why thong guan growth cannot be exponential
4) why thong guan cannot undergo internal reorganisation to enable the spin off of F&B from plastic manufacturing division

Stay tuned. I am very optimistic.

I hope everyone is blessed and HUAT CHAI.

Disclaimer: Buy or Hold or Sell at your own discretion. This is not an advice but just a sharing of my idea.

@Pinky,

Look as at 3.44 PM, the share price breaks through RM2.64 and now at RM2.65.

My experience tells me that whenever a stock is going to fly, there is always an illusion to trick retail investors.

FYI, I worked as a consultant for big syndicates based in Cayman Islands and Singapore before. I could read their mindsets.

So my expectation will not go wrong very much

@Pinky,

Hahaha, this is what I am guessing or expecting based on my experience.

Please do not scold me yeah if not as per my expectation.

Hopefully, TG will fly and close at least at the range of RM3.63 - RM3.65

There is a big road block at RM2.64 which has been set purposely by the Syndicates to trigger anxiety.

By end of today, the block or hindrance will be missing automatically.

The ultimate goal for syndicates is to push the price of share to RM3.00 and above. Let's observe and HUAT CHAI together.

见山不是山，见水不是水。

真真假假。记得，慢慢起价，就是快。

大家顶峰相见。

This morning, Syndicates were trying to trigger negative sentiments and anxiety among new retail investors by purposely pushing the price of Thong Guan up to RM2.64 in early morning and within 5-10 minutes, purposely pushed the price down to RM2.55.

Right before Lunch time, the price went up again to RM2.61.

If you observed the buying and selling behaviour, you will note that the movements (the sales) downwards to RM2.55 is actually the tactic of Syndicates.

In my opinion, I will be holding the shares till RM3.00 and above. It is very possible. Please note that at thus juncture (2.30 PM on 27 April 2021), the overall bursa market is not very healthy as indicated by the reducing KLCI.

Although the market is not good today, the negative sentiments do not affect Thong Guan at all.

My gang and I will hold till RM3 and above, we may hold for Mid or Long Term as Thong Guan is a choice that will become a multibagger.

My prophecy is that Thong Guan will close at around +- RM2.65

Disclaimer: Buy or Hold or Sell at your own discretion. This is not an advice but just a sharing of my idea.

@Lanmum,

Thank you for your positive response to my sharing here.

I am not asking or promoting people to Die Die must hold long term.

For those who aim to do short or mid term trading, Thong Guan is a good counter also.

For those who aim for long term investment to aim for capital gain due to growth in the Company or for those who aim for arbitrage trading when there is a potential spin off of the F&B division from the Group in foreseeable future can also do investment so as to wait for opportunity.

Of course, in share market, there is no certainty, we need to humbly admit that we are not shark or syndicates, as such there is still some degree of risk that we need to bear.

In share market, we need to adopt Value Investment PLUS Fundamental Analysis to reduce our risk with possible safeguards, at the same time, to try our best effort to earn the best possible return of investment.

There is not perfect or idealistic scenario what we could do is that we take all necessary steps to ensure risk is managed to a level that match our risk appetite.

My humble two cents.

Disclaimer: Buy or Sell or Hold at your own discretion. The above is only my personal thought process and opinion.

@The Gardener,

I am not worried at all. I just love to share good stocks to ppl. If you are worried and pessimistic, why you keep on appearing in this forum to express your negative thought or sentiments to influence others.

Huat Chai everyone.

@The Gardener,

I am not promoting for the sake of promoting. As I said, my gang is optimistic towards the future of Thong Guan.

I may plan to hold for long term like 2-5 years.

Thong Guan can be a multibagger.

Thong Guan counter might be planned for Internal Reorganisation to unlock value and enhance efficiency in resource allocation if the F&B division is to be spinned off and listed separately.

This is possible.

early of March 2021 when the price was somewhere 1.95 and 1.97.

hahahahaha

For those who bought slightly above 2.00 is also okay as long as they are willing to hold for long term

Thong Guan is projected to be a multibagger. Hahahaha

Hahahaha. only those who did not buy below RM2.00 are thinking that Grapes are always sour. Hahahahaha

My gang bought Tguan at very low price and now we let the profit runs!

If dropped significantly, we will collect on dip.

Although, it is a fact that the ESOS is a bit too low the price, the positive sentiments and the potential growth in Thong Guan should never be undermined or under estimated!

Look for 1-2 years down the road, we still believe that Thong Guan is a Multibagger.

Potential good Quarter Result which will be released next month PLUS potential dividends PLUS the increasing demand for stretch film and plastic packaging will be adding Positive Sentiments.

We believe Thong Guan will be flying to RM3.00 and above.

Cost benefit analysis. You yourself should be very smart to evaluate this counter. Hahahaha.

Disclaimer: Buy or Sell or Hold at your discretion.

@LossAversion,

I hope that everyone can differentiate between a Good Share and a share worth to be invested.

A good share might not be necessarily worth to be invested due to limited room for growth and tiny opportunity to be a multibagger because the company has become matured.

A share worth to be invested is definitely a good share and sometime beyond good because of the bigger room for growth and higher opportunity to be a multibagger because the company is still growing.

Remember, need to know how to differentiate so that your fund is invested for a purpose!

We are very optimistic and believe that the price will go up to RM3.00 and above very soon.

Hopefully QR is good to bring positive sentiment.

Looking forward to seeing the price skyrocketing to RM3.00 and above.

I aim at RM3.50. I even believe that the price will go beyond RM3.50.

Have faith in Thong Guan and will hold for sure. Thong Guan has high potential to be a multibagger.

@LossAversion

Definitely, Thong Guan is better than PBB

Need to look at Growth

PBB is matured already and there is little room for improvement or enhancement.

Let's us hold our tickets tightly.

My prophecy is that Thong Guan share price will hit and close price around RM2.60.

I hope that everyone will be holding tightly the tickets and for those who want to buy can buy if their risk appetites allow so.

Pray for the closure of share price at RM2.60

Huat Ar

@Pinky, good choice. Let's us wait till RM3.50 and huat chai together

@Lanmum, to be honest, I am not a GOD but I can foresee that there will be a strong Positive Sentiment to trigger positive market response due to the announcement of Quarter Result in May 2021, potential dividend declaration in May 2021 and subsequent months (refer to last year)

RM3.50 can reach or not before or after, I could not tell. But I can assure you that our gang will not sell below RM3.00 at this juncture. We will observe the economic condition everyday to make decision.

@Maxpowar, you are right Thong Guan is definitely a Multibagger. Please take note on the potential listing of Thong Guan's F&B line of business. To achieve synergy and to obtain efficiency in resource allocation, I do not think it is impossible for Thong Guan to undergo Internal Reorganisation (IR). If IR happens, existing shareholder of Thong Guan will be rewarded accordingly, such as redemption of shares of Thong Guan at higher price to complete the IR.

@Pinky,

Are you joining us to hold till RM3.50 around?

We are very optimistic because we know TG for many years already.

The top management in Thong Guan is very very capable.

No doubt one. By 2026, the share price would be even multiplied.

I believe Thong Guan is a multi baggar. 开番的日子快到了，期待。

Regarding the exposure or risk to Myanmar’s Expansion project, please do not worry as we have not heard of any negative news and we believe the plan will resume to normal once the political stability is attained soon in Myanmar.

From economy point of view, no country leader would want only power at the long term expense of its country’s productivity. As such, once Myanmar’s peace is restored, Thong Guan’s plan will be carried out accordingly.

Thong Guan has earmarked RM150mil as capital expenditure (capex) for year 2021 and 2022 to expand its business in Malaysia and overseas. Of the planned capex, the packaging firm said it would invest about RM30mil to RM40mil to build a new plant in Myanmar. The remainder would be used for its Malaysian factory lines to produce stretch films and specialty mailer bags, as well as to install machinery for the manufacturing of food and beverage packaging products.

Do not worry as the exposure to the failure in Myanmar’s plant expansion is only up to around RM40 million. The risk of the plan being abandoned is nearly zero as explained in the above 2nd paragraph.

Instead of worrying about the abandonment of Myanmar’s plant expansion, why not we think of the good consequences from economic perspective plus expansion plan in Malaysia?

The main lure of Myanmar is the country’s status as a developing country, which would allow Thong Guan to enjoy zero-tariff privileges for its exports. Importers don’t need to pay any duty for the goods they buy from Myanmar; whereas if the goods are produced in Malaysia and they are heading to the United States, the importers over there would need to pay a 4.9% tariff. European importers, on the other hand, would need to pay a 6.5% tariff for Malaysian-made plastic packaging products. In addition, he said, setting up a production plant in Myanmar would result in cost-savings for the company.

According to Datuk Ang, the group would save approximately RM1,000 per month for an average production worker, by citing the average monthly wage, including overtime pay, for a worker in Malaysia was around RM1,800, while in Myanmar, it was only around RM800.

With the group’s expansion plan, the group is confident of increasing its yearly output to 175,000 tonnes in 2021, up from over 150,000 tonnes in year 2020.

We believe Thong Guan is on track to achieve RM1bil in revenue in year 2021, as the two lines in which Thong Guan has invested earlier have started to make contributions. Earlier, the group had spent RM30mil for a stretch film production line and a blown film production line to manufacture laminated films that could improve its 2020 revenue by about 10% from the RM935mil revenue achieved in 2019.

Furthermore, the demand for food and beverage (F&B) products in Europe has increased. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, more people are buying from supermarkets to eat at home. This has resulted in the rise in demand for stretch films used for wrapping pallets of F&B goods heading to Europe. In the domestic market, we also see an increase in the use of laminated packaging materials for wrapping F&B products. The European market has contributed about 10% of the group’s 2020 revenue. The market in Japan also showed no signs of slowing down and showed around 20% of 2020 revenue.

According to a Research and Markets report, the global stretch and shrink film market size is expected to reach US$21.72bil by 2027, exhibiting a 5.5% compounded annual growth rate for the 2020-2027 period. Rising demand for lightweight material for industrial packaging is expected to drive the growth. Factors such as superior packaging properties, improved printability, easier application and robust package sealing capabilities of the films are anticipated to further fuel the growth. The introduction of superior shrink and stretch film materials, such as linear low-density polyethylene, extended polyethylene and high-density polyethylene is expected to strengthen the pallet further holding abilities of the films.

We are very optimistic about performance of Thong Guan in this upcoming quarter result due to
1) more premium product mix,
2) favourable exchange rate for its export sales
3) lower raw material cost due to the use of Nanotechnology and willingness of customer to absorb the cost partially

We are also optimistic about the restoration of political stability in Myanmar which is expected to happen very soon. We also trust in Thong Guan’s ability to turn their CAPEX for expansion in Malaysia’s plan into revenue. Do not forget about the plant in Sungai Petani which is expected to be completed and in full force operation by year 2026.

Due to so many good factors above, we have no doubt to hold Thong Guan shares and we believe the share price should be able to go up to around RM3.50.

Disclaimer: Buy or Hold or Sell at your own discretion.

Hoping for the best outcome in May 2021.

Everything is possible. Look at how Kossan rewards its shareholders.

My gang will continue to collect on dip and continue to hold Thong Guan.

Remember QR result will be released in May 2021. We are very optimistic.

We do believe that Thong Guan share price should be able to fly above RM3.00 very soon.

Hope that everyone is positive and waiting for good returns ahead.

If you checked the movement and volume of the transactions yesterday, the movements seemed to indicate that the sales and purchases were done deliberately by the Syndicates.

Stay positive and hold and do not get affected. We will see everyone at price above RM3.00 hopefully.

HUAT CHAI.

After 2-3 days of creating negative market sentiments or triggering anxiety among the retail investors, Syndicates have finally decided to push up slightly.

For those whose entry price is low, congratulations because you are going to earn big money from Thong Guan soon. Remember, look at last year Dividend Declaration plus its positive sentiments.

For those whose entry price is not too low or for new joiners, do not worry and be more confident in Thong Guan. With Thong Guan's future development plan and potential declaration of dividends in the next few months (like marathon or same like last year), the positive effect will be eventually reflected in the share price which will spike non stop from month to month.

I strongly believe and hope that Thong Guan will make surmountable returns to investors because Mr. Ang See Ming is someone who is forward looking and taking care of minority shareholders based on my understanding and trust built since many years ago.

Continue to hold till May and let's witness the victorious moment together.

Next week, the momentum of the increasing trend for Thong Guan's share price will be even more and more obvious.

Remember, when you are worried, stay away from the computer and stop looking at the screen. Keep on monitoring price with weak perseverance will result in you, selling your shares too early.

HUAT CHAI everyone. Let's us HUAT CHAI from next week onwards. The increasing trend is believed to be continued till September 2021 but I am not advising you to hold till that time.

Make your own judgement and make money together...OKAY...

FYI, Thong Guan is my only portfolio, my fund is 100% in Thong Guan.

I have already identified a good stock and will GO FULL LOAD once the price hit my Targeted Entry Price. This stock is very very much undervalued and has the potential to grow exponentially in 2-3 years and could result in substantial return even for a short term investment.

Stay Tuned. 基本面价值投资是王道。重仓是我的投资路线。我全部钱都往通源投资了。富贵稳中求。稳坐钓鱼台。

以上是我的观点，若有得罪之处或不对，请多多指教，感恩。By the way, I am still learning. If I have spoken anything wrongly, do let me know, correct me, educate me and enlighten me. I will be pleased to know more

BAsed on the records above,

I only advised you in respect of Scientix and PBB. That's all.

I am confused.

"This Uncle" is referring to you? Is it?

@LossAversion,

I do not understand why you are quoting my name above but I am not the one who posted :this "Uncle is very DIVERSIFIED"

Based on my preliminary assessment, I will never touch WTK nor Ta Ann.

Both of their performances could not meet my assessment criteria.

I would rather invest else where.

@LossAversion,

MY advice to you is:

1) to avoid buying Scientix as it is very overvalued. Not worth to put your money there. There are other better options and choices.

2) to avoid buying PBB as it is overvalued also. PBB is undoubtedly a good stock but it is not a stock potentially will be growing over the years anymore. Study Life Cycle for Stocks and Products, then you will understand what I meant.

Remember, there are many good counters undetected. Go and do some research.

@Pinky


Do not laugh at Uncle Aunties la,

We help to educate more ppl and we help one another to earn money.

HAhaha

When ppl keep telling me Technical Analysis and TA chart, I am also laughing out loud non stop.

It is like "Ma Hou Pao".....hahahhahahaha

But thank to those TA Expert, because of them many go to HOLLAND, then we can harvest them easily

@Pinky,


Get a CA is useful.

I am a CA doing Audit, Advisory, Consulting and now even doing brokerage business in gloves.

By the way, Bursa Malaysia is good place to earn money...

My next counter, I will HOOT9E and ALL FULL LOAN again

I love the illogical manner.

I love the irrational behaviour of the market player..

Hahaha, You know what I am trying to say ....LOLX

Pinky, are you also a Chartered Accountant. You seem like knowing a lot in this industry.

Remember, all.

Dividend in Cash Term is KING

DRIP - I will not opt for it because normally it is higher price when you opt for it and not worth it.

Bonus Issue is LPPL because the number of shares increases with the value of the Company remains unchanged.

Bonus Issue is good for the Company and not for investors like us

Of course, the Bonus Issue is only to enhance the liquidity so that fund raising exercise for the Company via share investment by investors is easier.

What I meant is that we need positive sentiments, but we do not chase for higher Thong Guan.

Just let the profit running and let the market sentiment helps us to push higher for the price

Definitely, I will not be happy to see Bonus Issue because it is LPPL

I will be happy to see the Company declaring lucrative Dividends. Cash is King.

Based on my analysis, it is unlikely for TG to issue Bonus Issue because last year TG already did so.

Dividend is highly possible. Stay tuned.

The tactic of Syndicates to trigger anxiety and cause panic selling among retail investors for the past few days was a big failure.

5 April till 7 April 2021 = RM2.39
8 April - 9 April and 12 April = RM2.45

My gang and I will still follow our analysis to collect on dip and to hold till May 2021 and probably till June 2021 due to the potential upcoming good news and positive sentiments.

Remember to look at the past, last year, how were Dividends declared and what were the responses to market?

Remember to look at Positive Sentiments in Cocoaland due to declaration of Bonus Issue in which the ex-Date will be announced later.

Remember to look at Tongher, its share price increased due to positive sentiments also in steel related industry.

I do not need to boost too much. My hypothesis had been proven correct or approximate actual conditions if you read through all my comments posted in KLSE i3 and KLSE Screener.

Good luck all and my gang is positive that the price could go beyond RM3 and potentially RM3.50 given the potential multiplying effects due to continuous announcement of Dividends. Now still not materialised, but I hope those positive news will come in May 2021.

我的推算，加上我的组合的看法不会错到哪里。万事具备，只欠东风。五月的风会很大，期待通源再次给股息，把股价弄高，万众期待。

My gang and I are very optimistic towards good news and upcoming announcement of Quarter result somewhere in May 2021.

Remember and recall what had happened in last year despite Covid-19:-

18/05/20 - Announced Div RM0.02 per share
29/06/20 - Announced Div RM0.09 per share
19/08/20 - Announced Div RM0.02 per share
02/10/20 - Announced Bonus Issue of 1:1
18/11/20 - Announced Div RM0.01 per share

May 2021 is coming soon. I am very optimistic and I hope that Thong Guan will give everyone surprised gift.

My gang and I will hold while waiting for Good News patiently which is expected to be in the mid of May 2021.

Hope that every TG shareholder will be HUAT CHAI.

Investing in a single stock does not mean I am gambling. As I said, at this juncture, I do not see any stocks that are suitable for me to split and diversify my portfolios. At this right timing, I have seen Thong Guan share price plummeted from RM3.20 to RM2.50 and to RM1.95. So, I know this is a right timing for me because if I go for FULL LOAD, I will be earning substantially.

Remember, 重仓 is a secret weapon or skill set that an Advocate of Fundamental Analysis and Value Investment should use when the opportunity arises.

Of course, different person will have different risk appetite. I understand how you perceived my investing method.

If I gambled, I would have gone to Penny Stocks such as DATAPRP, LAMBO and etc.

To me, my golden rules are:-

1) Investing in a stock is like "Buying a business"

2) "Circle of Competence" - investors should make sure they fully understand how a business operates, how it makes money, and the future sustainability of its business model and profits before buying its stock.

3) "Never Look at a Headline" - Do not chase high and fall intro trap like I have seen many of my friends who went to buy Digi or Axiata just because of news on 8 April 2021.

I 100% invested in Thong Guan using all my free cash flows because I have more than 10 years knowledge in Thong Guan.

My next Stock is still KIV because I need to study more and prepare more funds for another FULL LOAD to another 5 star Share.

Stay tuned and I will disclose accordingly.

Sharing is caring.

Yoyo, thank you for your feedback. FYI, I invested 100% of my free cash flow. Of course, I still reserve Emergency Fund and I will not be using borrowings or contra account.

Hi Pinky,


To me maximum portfolio is up to 5 counters. But at this juncture, I could not locate any other stocks that enable me to split my fund.

Again, I get to know Thong Guan since year 2010. I knew this Company for many years ago.

I only do what I am confident in.

My next target and portfolio will be disclosed accordingly. Stay tuned.

I will sell ThongGuan when the return hit around 40% of Return on Investment (ROI). If at the time I am planning to sell, there is a critical event happen in TG to make me believe that I could hold for a mid term to make TG a multi bagger, I will hold then. Otherwise, I will sell.

My next target is XXXXXX. Stay tuned. My gang and I will again ALL FULL LOAD. 重仓是我的投资路线。

By the way, I am still learning.

If I have spoken anything wrongly, do let me know, correct me, educate me and enlighten me.

I will be pleased to know more

@Bizfuneng,

Yeap, I did.

The last valuation I had done was back in Jan 2021 when the IV was only RM1.75. Again, my team and I acknowledged that the share market is not going to be in perfect or idealistic condition.

To cater for the market sentiment in Bursa Malaysia, my team and I decide the followings:-

1) not to strictly adhere to Margin for Price of Safety at price below IV in accordance with the concept founded by Benjamin Graham; and

2) to adopt a risk based assessment and to make judgment call for investment with entry price IV+10%, IV+20% or etc. so as to understand where our risk will come from and importantly our decision must reflect our risk appetite.

@rabbitseductive,

I follow Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger way of making investment. My gang and I only focus on stocks that we are familiar with and have strong confidence in.

FYI, Thong Guan is my only portfolio, my fund is 100% in Thong Guan.

重仓是我的投资路线。随着价值基本投资路线，我瞄准这个通源在我可以接受承担风险的价格内，重仓。原因这是五星级钻石股票，我没有借口不重仓，价位适合我的风险接受程度。我意识了接受了市场的不完美，为自己找到属于自己的风险接受的来的价位，重仓。才投资少过两个月目前已经赚了20%

@LossAversion,

Please do not chase higher price

@Lanmum,

As advocates of Fundamental Analysis and Value Investment and As a devotee of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger,

My advice is that do not chase for higher priced shares, wait for the price to decrease and collect on dip even though this is a good counter

@Lanmum,

No worry, Not gostan, it is a normal tactic that Syndicates used to LURE naive retail investors to sell (this morning purposely pull down the price) and to trigger market anxiety.

Ignore this, continue to hold and defend. I used defensive method and contrarian strategy. If drop more, my gang will Sapu more.

Thong Guan is my 100% portfolio and all my comrades in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

I knew Thong Guan for more than 10 years already. I am a CA and an auditor cum consultant for several companies (SME and Listed Co).

To me, there is no issue at all from its FA. I totally disagree with TA because TA has nothing to do because Syndicates decide the trend. What I will say is those advocates of TA who invested based on TA is no different from gambling.

重仓是我投资的路线。通源是我唯一的投资项目，100%。

Hi Pinky,

I am also an advocate of Fundamental Analysis. I do not trust Technical Analysis at all because I worked for syndicates before and basically know the TA is just a chart intended by Syndicates.

In layman term, Syndicates used money to make the drawing. LOLX

Nevertheless, I will respect those who are advocates of TA.

My whole gang will continue to BUY and HOLD. We will not be selling at all.

Hi Derrick.

You are right. Why I am of the opinion that RM3.50 is attainable because I have factored in the projection of profit and revenue in next quarter.

Hopefully, you are making big money as well. Let's make big money together.

My gang will keep on buying and holding. No selling from my gang at this juncture.

Disclaimer: Buy or Sell or Hold at your own risk and at your discretion.

My gang from Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will continue to buy and hold because the future of Tguan is undoubtedly bright.

If you think the current price is high, please consider to rethink because after April, you will regret for sure.

TP = 3.50

We believe the market is overly bearish on TGUAN. Its ASPs have matched and even exceeded hikes in resin prices which are seen to be flattening soon. Nevertheless, ASPs are expected to remain elevated with continued growth in Nano- films and courier bags to sustain gross margins. Furthermore, share buy-backs indicate management’s confidence of its prospects. Reiterate OUTPERFORM with unchanged TP of RM3.00 @ 13x PER on FY21E EPS of 23.1 sen.

Passing on costs. YTD, TGUAN has been able to raise ASPs across its products, namely c.20% for conventional stretch film (c.20% of revenue), and c.30% for Nano-stretch film (c.30% of revenue). The sharp rise in resin costs (15-20% YTD) has allowed TGUAN to raise ASPs accordingly, allowing them to comfortably pass on any higher costs. More importantly, customers are accepting the higher ASPs, especially for TGUAN’s proprietary Nano-stretch films, which we deem as more price inelastic.

Signs of flattening resin prices. In our view, resin prices could peak some time in 2QCY21. Our channel checks indicate that resin suppliers are guiding flat prices for April, as US petrochemical plants are ramping up production post-deep freeze. That said, resin prices are likely to remain elevated for some time as the months-long disruption has left deep deficits throughout the global supply chain. For TGUAN, we maintain our CY21 average resin cost assumption of USD1,100/MT.

What if resin prices fall? As (i) TGUAN has always been able to secure resins at below-market prices (e.g. LLDPE @ USD1,100/MT vs. market’s USD1,300/MT), and (ii) TGUAN only procures sufficient resins to fulfil demand, we don’t think TGUAN will be stuck with higher-than-market resin costs. In fact, as ASPs lag resin costs, we see TGUAN benefiting from higher ASPs by being able to source resins at lower prices. A gradual decline (vs. sharp decline) in resin prices will be beneficial for TGUAN as they are better able to maintain their high ASPs. We take comfort that c.30% of revenue is composed of relatively more price-inelastic proprietary Nano-stretch films, where demand exceeds supply.

Margins to at least sustain. Since 2018, its gross margins have risen from 12% to 16% on the back of growth of higher-margin products, such as the Nano-stretch film and courier bags. We conservatively estimate TGUAN’s gross margins to be at least 16% moving forward as they focus on value- added products and continue to expand their high margin products.

Maintain FY21/FY22 estimates. Assuming 8% CNP margin, we maintain our FY21E revenue/CNP of RM1.08b/RM87.4m, conservative relative to management’s targets. We also maintain our FY22E revenue/CNP of RM1.2b/RM95m. FY21E/FY22E DPS of 4.6 sen/5.0 sen yield 2.1%/2.3%.

Reiterate OUTPERFORM with unchanged TP of RM3.00 on an ascribed Fwd. PER of 13x on our conservative FY21E EPS of 23.1 sen. The ascribed 13x PER is +1SD of its 5-year mean of 9.5x. We believe that TGUAN deserves the valuation premium for: (i) its growth prospects in the coming years and (ii) its ability to pass on costs and sustain margins. The current price implies Fwd. PER of 9.6x, similar to its 5-year mean, which we believe is unfair given its margin growth and commendable capacity expansion. TGUAN remains our top pick in the sector and we believe that the market is overly bearish on the stock. Hence, we recommend accumulating on the weakness.

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Mar 2021

Will definitely hold Thong Guan till at least RM3.00

Very positive.

My gang will definitely buy and collect on dip.

Top Glove cannot be compared directly with Thong Guan.

Two of them are of different industries.

Top Glove share has been over valued significantly. Please look at their dividends and bonus issue. It is too much.

Thong Guan is prudently valued. Going up to RM3.00 is not impossible. The most can go up to RM3.50 with the current performance and macro-economy.

You will no longer think that the current price is high anymore after April 2021. You go and figure our yourself.

For weak players, you are welcome to sell because my gang has been waiting for cheap tickets.

Dear all,


Tomorrow my gang in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will be buying more and holding them until price hit RM3.00 and above.

For weak players, please sell please sell, we are waiting to collect Thong Guan Shares at lower price. Mega sales, promotion.

22/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.29 and Lowest: RM2.16
23/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.30 and Lowest: RM2.24
24/3/2021: Closed: RM2.29, Highest: RM2.29 and Lowest: RM2.23
25/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.30 and Lowest: RM2.22
26/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.28 and Lowest: RM2.23
29/3/2021: My gang aims to collect more shares and probably will push to RM2.30 at least.

29/3/2021 till 2/4/2021: The share price is expected to hit RM2.40 or above.

If you think the current price of RM2.27 is too high, then you will regret because the price will be somehow between RM2.50 and RM3.00 within April 2021.

We will buy more and more now before it is too late.

Let the financial figures tell you how strong is Thong Guan. Please see https://www.thongguan.com/financial-highlights/

We are advocates of Fundamental Analysis and Value Investment. Come come, we need more weak players to sell and leave this counter because we need more.

Disclaimer: This is only for sharing of information. Buy or Hold or Sell at your own risk and discretion.

Dear all,


Today my gang in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will be waiting for the price to plummet again as expected.

For weak players, please sell please sell, we are waiting to collect Thong Guan Shares at lower price. Mega sales, promotion.

22/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.29 and Lowest: RM2.16
23/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.30 and Lowest: RM2.24
24/3/2021: Closed: RM2.29, Highest: RM2.29 and Lowest: RM2.23
25/3/2021: Closed: RM2.27, Highest: RM2.30 and Lowest: RM2.22

26/3/2021: Drop Drop Drop to RM2.20 and below (Expected)

Today, my gang has higher expectation and we will work closely with "them" to enjoy the moment where the shares will plummet to RM2.20 and below.

Please sell please sell. We need them eagerly.

We are advocates of Fundamental Analysis and Value Investment. Come come, we need more weak players to sell and leave this counter because we need more.

Hahahahaha

Reminder, do not anyhow follow Technical Analysis ("TA") next time if you are one of the supporters or advocates of TA. Most of the retail investors are trapped at higher price due to they thought they are experts of Technical Chart. This is really a trick that most people are not aware of. I have seen many victims since I was young. Until now, there are still many naive retail investors want to follow TA and follow graph or charts.

我从小看到麻木了。怎么那么多人还是要相信技术面。投资很简单，但是给一些江湖的课程老教导用技术面来进入市场，我看到的是多数去荷兰的。有些高估的股票，但是技术面说可以去，他们就投资了，买在高价的投资注定是失败的投资。纵使最后没有输钱，但是不能利益最大化就是个不争的事实，是个失败的投资。我只能继续看看多少人在高价，继续慢慢等咯，后果就是必须承受机会成本

My gang of investors can follow the fluctuation everyday to shake shake shake because we have wider gap to earn profits and we are not afraid of daily fluctuation as we would like to collect more. If can tomorrow go down more. We enjoy collecting non stop. All of us, buy and hold only. We will not sell.

It is so fun that the market has been shaken for these few days. If Syndicates did not collect sufficient shares, this will persist and continue till end of April 2021. Shake shake and to those weak players and those who rely on Technical Analysis, let's see what can you do and how can you respond. Those weak players, contra players and those advocates of TA, will be eliminated in this kind of shaking game. I could not disclose further already. You are smart enough to understand what I said. Any buy or sell or hold decision is at your discretion. HAHAHAHAHA

Those who bought at higher price, please slowly wait because of TA and you people bought at higher price. Those who follow Fundamental Analysis and Value Investment, congratulation, because you can have bigger room for price fluctuation. Those who bought at higher price, please be careful next time because buying and entering at higher price even though following TA is definitely a failure in my opinion. Good luck. Shake Shake Shake, let continue with the music of shake shake shake. I am excited and my gang are enjoying as well. You are smart to know why we are enjoying.