「洗盤」這是很多人常聽到的名詞。那麼，到底什麼是洗盤？主力又為什麼要洗盤？對於主力來說，在市場對特定股吸收到有一定掌控能力的籌碼後，必然會有低檔散戶跟單及原有高位套牢的籌碼。對主力而言，這些就是「浮額」，在未來拉升的過程裡，會阻礙未來股價的掌控與推動，所以必須做打壓這些浮額的動作。總結洗盤有3個目的：1.清洗底部跟單的籌碼；2.前波高位套牢的籌碼；3.主力在洗盤時，利用高出低進手法，拉大散戶與主力的持股成本。

所以洗盤，就是主力為了將未來不安定的籌碼清洗出來，讓這些浮額提前下車，但是要怎麼讓這些浮額願意退出呢？主力的一般手法便是製造出貨的假象，利用誤以為出貨的黑K線與大量的恐慌型態，讓散戶認為主力是出貨的行為，看見股價爆量大跌，散戶因為害怕獲利萎縮或虧損，自然在震盪行情中將手上持股賣出，如此主力便達到清洗浮額的目的。

The clock is ticking with ten days count down to PADU deadline as the economy minister said those who "refused" to PADU will be instantly kicked out of the petrol subsidy program or something like that. So far around 6m (I think mostly public servants forced by big brother to do so) have PADU out of 33m population so if this is a Brexit Referendum this economy minister should be kicked out of office immediate as only around 18% (6/33) of the population "voted" for his pet project. Those who "refused" to PADU are mostly humble Chinese working class family who fear that once they PADU it will impact their CTOS credit score and affect their ability to get bank loans in future time as the economy minister somehow amusingly "linked" PADU to poor income and also some may worry that it will invite income tax troubles and so on. It is almost certain that 90% who "refused" to PADU are mostly the vote bank of PH government so just let the deadline expire so that economy minister will learn a lesson this kind of big brother monitoring system is total unwelcomed as we are living in a free country with free will and what he is trying to do may not be permitted under Constitution of Malaysia as it is a form of invasion of personal freedom to against our own will to do or not to do something so just let the PADU deadline expire and see whether PH gov will walk its talks to remove our petrol subsidy.

A responsible government will not "force" rakyat to PADU and "threaten" with hostile action to take away their subsidy entitlement if they don't follow what the heck the economy minister instructed them to do so. A caring government will give rakyat the choice if we wanted a more speedy online bank-in option then you PADU your bank info (with the high risk hacker will hack your PADU info as the whole project looks like hobby class and not backed by big IT budget unlike income tax department or EPF or maybe even CTOS have bigger IT budget than this economy minister) otherwise those who are not in the mood to PADU the citizen welfare office still can continue to send them the physical cheque to their home address. Most rakyat will be very worry once they PADU their personal info as they will be digitally tag and very hard to get motorcycle loan to do foodpanda etc. The government should give reward to rakyat who has PADU and give free TouchGO e-wallet cash RM1500 so that our society will be filled with love and positive ambient. I am not aware of any advanced country using this kind of drastic action to penalize their citizen who don't prefer to digitalize their personal info. Most countries will do it via Tax Return and some countries like Canada when they move from one place to another place, the government will subsidy them the moving cost or when a mother gave birth to a baby the government will subsidy them some money as well. This PADU will be a total failure just like the petrol or diesel subsidy (around RM56bn every year) to create a black market and smuggling activities or in economic term called risk-free forex arbitrage. The toy idea of target petrol subsidy played by economy minister using PADU has the same loophole as those who not qualify can still "ask" someone to PADU and claim the target petrol subsidy. If the economy minister walks his talk and really take away the subsidy entitlement for those who failed to PADU he will help to collapse the PH government immediately as the vote bank of PH government are mostly those left-wing unions or socialist and this PADU target petrol will head-on hit them 😁

PADU actually just waste of time and public resources. The government can just request the help of income tax department to produce a list of those who earned min wage and just send a cash cheque to them or also can request the help of EPF to produce a list of those will balance less than RM10,000 just deposit cash to their EPF accounts 😁

When the government runs out of options to arrest the sharp fall of MYR they will defy the invisible hands to impose capital control and foreign capitals will be trapped so the more MYR falls the more foreign funds selling and repatriate the hot money back to their origin country. The reason Japanese Central Bank suddenly exit zero interest rate is due to the sharp increase of USD/YEN as Japan was just hit by economic recession and no sign their economy is improving especially the EV made in China has totally killed the automobile industry in Japan which was the backbone of their economy.

Those who think it looks familiar it is actually not an illusion as most of us have seen it before and that time our number one man said nothing to worry about and the number two man also said no worry as Malaysia is different from Thailand or South Korea but when George Soros hit the panic button most of the Asian Dragons crashed like paper tiger and to add salt to the wound the number one man was fighting with number two man that time and this time the same history still repeated itself so those foreign hedge funds must be amazed by the fighting spirit of our senior ministers 😁

https://i.postimg.cc/x1h96bth/USDYEN.jpg

Last week (15 Mar 2024) foreign fund managers sold quite a lot of PBBank (RM128) and bought some Maybank (RM85m) in order to mask their net selling activities. The more local funds push up the market the more foreign funds selling because our economy minister too obsessed with his database pet project and the job being a minister in charge of economy should be to formulate economic policy to contain the debt bubble as the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has turned from bad to worse due to USD/YEN/MYR parity as the math just don't add up when Japanese Central Bank giving up their ZERO interest rate policy and Federal Funds Rate is around 5.33%. History is a back mirror so see the chart below for more evidence why foreign fund managers so nervous and speed up the selling pace as our economy has reached the speed limit with private debt of 116.07% of GDP (should be around USD432b or RM2 trillion) trailing behind China (185.92% of GDP). Yes, the banks’ balance sheets are expected to remain solid this year (provided the property bubble don't crash...) but what what about next year or next next year as during Covid most people already dig out most of their EPF money (as the handout from government only can buy some popcorn and peanut unlike other countries which give out a lot of cash to help their people to overcome the pandemic) so the balance sheets of the private households are really in bad shape and not to mention we still need to bailout so many GLC as their balance sheets also in really really really bad shape.

https://i.postimg.cc/x1h96bth/USDYEN.jpg

ICAP fund (2.96 MYR) was listed on YR2005 just in time to catch the KLCI high-speed-rail took off from around 900 (YR2005) to 1800 (YR2014) or a return of 100% due to our boss's (YR2009–2018) pump priming economic model. Warren Buffet said "only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked" so the impressive return of the ICAP fund during the period from YR2005-2014 was statistically speaking fueled by the tidal wave effect so we zoom in further to most recent ten years (YR2013-2023) we will see more evidence that when the high tide receded ICAP fund actually will only give you around 2.5% return per year which statistically speaking underperformed EPF but of course this is not a red flag but just that those who enter at this level should not have too high expectation especially TTB is waiting for KLCI to hit 3000 level due to China's recovery but using Japan as a guide it will take around 20-30 years to clean up the twin bubbles of property crash and debt crash. If we see ICAP fund's YR2023 audited portfolio the result actually is not that impressive especially those investments losses associated with BIOHLDG (-RM7.8m) and Parkson (-RM20m). It is not easy to duplicate Warren Buffet's value investing in Bursa as most of Warren Buffet's stock picks are actually those market leaders with the ability to "control" the global markets and enormous capability to generate free cashflow for Warren Buffer to reinvest and grow his portfolio at 20% per year.

For the past ten years the tiger bank will give you around 6% investment return per year on average as this 6% actually is the mirror image of our GDP growth and the tiger bank happened to be the best proxy to our economy but anyone who think our country can continue to expand at 6% per year will be shocked as our economy has reached the speed limit with private debt of 116.07% of GDP (should be around USD432b or RM2 trillion) trailing behind China (185.92% of GDP). The debt bubble in China already pop with Evergrande (恒大集团) debt USD300b alone already almost the size of Malaysia GDP and followed by Country Garden (碧桂园) debt USD194 billion. The more local institional funds (may be ordered by the highest order) to push up the market the more foreign fund managers selling and that's the reason why we see the market went up 15pts one day and next day drop back 15pts. Basically these foreign fund managers are having popcorn party to enjoy the show seeing Malaysia moving closer and closer to the total collapse of debt bubble. Due to USD carry trade and USD/MYR parity, Malaysia will eventually has no choice but to increase the interest rate to arrest the sharp fall of MYR and that will effectively pop the debt bubble. Some people mistaken random luck with proven investment skill but EPF's track records actually can be considered world class especially their shariah fund managers with their excellent picks on Magnificent Seven (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) to boost the return from 4.75% to 5.40% which is exceptionally good compared to the conventional fund managers from 5.35% to 5.5% 😁

Sarawak has better conditions to become next silicon valley of Malaysia with their RE and stable political environment but the news that China tech companies trying to use Penang as back door entry to US market actually will attract the attention of US commerce department for wrong reason and banned all tech products originated or imported from Penang. Last time Malaysian glove sectors were hit by similar import ban so never underestimate the wisdom of US commerce department 😁

Just a friendly reminder. Do read those analyst reports just for fun as those research analysts were never hired to protect the interest of you and me at the first place. Some retired uncles may have sleepless night this few days as they keep worrying that this falling stock price maybe the life time opportunity to double their EPF money so tomorrow they will go EPF office and withdraw all their EPF saving and bet on this so called undervalued company as claimed by most research reports with some even pegged the target price at RM1.8 but the rubber glove fiasco and vaccine drama reminded us that most of the time those analysts were as good as monkey throw dart as during covid time when the glove company hit RM9 they said target price RM20 when the price crashed to RM5 they said target price RM10 and when the price hit RM0.65 they said no hope already so they issued SELL CALL and then the share price spring back to RM0.9 and some more the vaccine company even more funny with STRONG BUY CALL during covid time and now become a PN17 company.

Following is public info produced by a well respected multi-billion fund management company with high paid and highly trained fund managers but when the tsunami hit the shore they also cannot escape as they bought Hartalega at the cost of RM22m vs market value RM2m and TopGlove RM9m vs market value RM3m so the folk tales of fund managers can outperform the market is totally an unanswered question.

https://i.postimg.cc/4nRT7ggX/funds.jpg

In the scale of 0-10 with zero being no risk and 10 being super high risk I would give them risk score report of 9.99 as the court case will put a question mark on their business model with an unanswered question of the integrity of their database being tainted with outdated info so this will organically make their business model obsolete. It is like Lotus123 vs MSOffice or Yahoo's search engine vs Google's search engine. Most banks will question what will be the legal consequence if they continue to use the tainted database (at least from the point of view of legal judgment) to do credit evaluation. Imaging you spent the whole night writing a spreadsheet software trying to replace Lotus123 but someone found out it has programming bug when you key in 1+1 the software will produce 2.000111 which for some this error looks insignificant but when you use it to launch a space shuttle you will know this kind of programming bug is no joke and may endanger the life of the astronauts onboard. A pretty lady armed with her women intuition that she has been treated unfairly by a multi-billion company and won RM200,000 you think the Wolf of Wallstreet will not do the same but in largest scale as the pandora box has opened. Actually with or without this court case, modern mobile banking app will make their business model obsolete as those high-end banking app like ant finance will keep track of more than few thousand variables including your batt level and the financial news said if the banking app detected that you always have low batt the banking app will assign you lower rating so Jack Ma knows you better than you know you 😁

p/s: don't take excessive risks with this counter as the share price can open gap down next day anytime as a lot of big funds trapped inside and this news are totally unexpected to them so if the fund managers choose to do noting the boss sure will fire him just like last time glove stocks dropping but most local fund managers were like the deer caught in headlights.

Better wait for Hong Leong IB's research report and see how they see this fintech company as the legal case may have set a legal precedent to unlock the floodgate. We are small traders without legal knowledge and no idea how to evaluate the impact of a court decision and keep in mind that we are not supposed to openly discuss the court decision or else we will be sued by the AG as the court has made it pretty clear that " The High Court today ruled that CTOS Data Systems Sdn Bhd (CTOS) does not have the power to formulate its own credit score." so it really sounds like a serious matter. CTOS should release a public statement and explain to everyone how the credit data is collected and how to ensure the accuracy of the data collected and also whether it complied with privacy laws and so on. To be fair to CTOS, without this kind of rating services, the bank officers will have hard time to evaluate bank loans so eventually the profitability of major banks will be affected. This kind of credit evaluation services were created with good intention and in certain way helped the banking sectors to grow their loan business but just that it must be fair to all customer so hopefully CTOS can project a more user friendly image from now on.

"CTOS NTA 0.26 MYR, above 1.62 MYR is bullish, below RM1.62 MYR is bearish. The forecasted trajectory is heading south unless the price action can penetrate 1.62 MYR comfortably. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of CTOS Digital Bhd (CTOS.KL) is 0.72 MYR. With the latest stock price at 1.41 MYR, the upside of CTOS Digital Bhd based on DCF is -48.6%."

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CTOS/z4xHKd7C-Time-Cycle-Analysis-CTOS/


Above message was posted around 2 Feb and most IB analysts during this time gave CTOS the strongest buy call but the technical analysis puzzled me as it seems to me the price actions not in tandem with these Buy Calls. Unless you are the rank of Warren Buffet and know how to calculate their intrinsic value or you are a well trained legal experts and know how to interpret the legal implication of the court decision otherwise better wait for the opinion of Hong Leong IB and see how they see this case as their latest analysis on Ambank is top notch.

Not sure what's deal but if the block is placed to local fund managers it will create a lot of overhang shares as local fund managers normally quick to take profit and also unlikely this block of shares has lockup period. Hong Long IB said the share overhang will take at least six months for the market to digest with target price RM4.20

Beside Japan Inc, another possibility is Dubai Corp as the name of Ambank already hinted it is Arab Malaysian Bank. Highly unlikely Temasek as recently there were hit badly by the FTX crypto drama. Brunei King is another possibility but Your Highness is more interested in business ventures linked to Singapore so this possibility also ruled out.

This is twin story of Affin Bank. When the identity of the buyer is announced the market mood will swing to positive territory and the headline news will read like some international institutional investors are bullish on Malaysia's banking sector which is similar to the story of Abang Jo's entry to Affin Bank. The reason ANZ is cashing out from Ambank may be related to equity accounting and forex translation loss and most of the liability related to 1MBD's already cleared so again just like Affin Bank, the new major shareholder will hit the RESET BUTTON and push the bank forwards. Ambank's NTA is around RM5.9 so the new buyers just like Abang Jo will be laughing to the bank.

Today's low 3.95 should be near basement level as 3.85 is considered as the wholesale price with wholesale discount of RM0.10. Just a wild guess the new buyer could be linked to Japanese Bank as their stock market is doing extremely well recently.

春水船如天上坐，老年花似雾中看，雾里看花，终隔一层。AAX's creditors were forced to take a steep haircut to rescue the company. Once bitten twice shy. Capitala's creditors should be in battle mode by now as the whole proposal failed to protect their rights. The cash cow Air Asia will be transferred to AAX and 0.5%-1% of the sales will be transferred to Nasdaq listed CAPI in the form of something like Master Franchisor Agreement. Normally under this kind of situation, the bankers will seek court order to prevent the company to move out anything from the company as they have the first claim on the company's assets.

06 Oct 2020: Besides a steep haircut for creditors, the long-haul low-cost carrier also proposed a capital reduction of 90% of its issued share capital in order to offset its accumulated losses. This means a reduction of RM1.38 billion from its share capital.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/airasia-x-creditors-take-steep-haircut-debt-restructuring-scheme

note: this is old news but still relevant to those investors who see light as the debt restructuring scheme should be similar in nature but Capitala will involve some kind of reserve takeover by US entity so the question is after all this haircut and that haircut and eventually how much hairs will remain for existing investors is an unsolved mystery.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CAPITALA/ePs1hSm4-Time-Cycle-Analysis-CapitlaA/

13 Jul 2015: Industry sources who have seen the report say it makes some serious allegations about the company’s financial health.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/airasia-fends-short-selling

22 Dec 2023: Capital A triggered Practice Note 17 (PN17) criteria in July 2020 after external auditors EY issued an unqualified audit opinion with material uncertainty regarding on-going concern.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/695050

note: both are old news but still relevant for investors who think they see the light. With NTA minus 2 MYR it is quite difficult to do right issue as SC will not allow a company to do right issue below par value (or something like that) unless they do something like capital reduction. Airline is a complicated business as they have high fixed costs and huge exposure to international oil prices. The last day to submit the PN17 restructure plan is June 30, 2024 and according to chart analysis it has entered structural bear market unless ringgit fiasco will end soon but quite unlikely as the politicians who know nothing about Economics 101 failed to understand what is USD carry trade and our interest rate cycle is lagged behind the curve. If ringgit keep falling down, BNM will have no choice but to raise the interest rate and that also will kill those company flooded with heavy debt and also the private homeowners loaded with heavy property loans.

Time Cycle Analysis: Capitala

Capital A, above 0.88 is bullish, below 0.88 is bearish. Key date to watch, total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024 will cross North America, passing over Mexico, the United States, and Canada.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CAPITALA/ePs1hSm4-Time-Cycle-Analysis-CapitlaA/

Those who bet on Affin are banking on the mega projects in Sarawak (which is also trying to invite the Harvard of China not sure is Tsinghua University or Fudan University to open up a branch in Sarawak). Those with basic economic knowledge will know that weakening ringgit is a dangerous sign for economic crisis as the main problem is the US carry trade and local interest rate has lagged behind the curve which caused the hot money reverted back to US shore. Instead of collecting data for PADU, the minister of economy should collect data to determine which companies are exposed to high debts and whether or not these companies will cause systematic risks to our banking system. It seemed that our minister of economy was not trained in Economics 101 as he kind of saying that falling ringgit is good for the economy as it will attract more foreign investors to invest in Malaysia but this argument made no sense at all as foreign investors will not come to Malaysia for cheap ringgit (the yield of ringgit is too low) as foreign investors only interested to know whether our high school students are well educated and our labor are competitive enough to produce good quality products for them to sell at international marketplace but first of all we need to well verse in international language or else how can we write Python programming to control an automated machines invented by these foreign investors. Why is falling ringgit bad for local company? AirAsia's cost structure was 40% jet fuel and jet fuel is traded in USD but AirAsia's air tickets are priced in ringgit so last time they can collect RM3.8 to pay for USD1 of jet fuel and now they have to collect RM4.8 to pay for USD1 of jet fuel and that will reduce their capacity to serve their loans so the minister of economy must collect data and do simulation to see the falling effect of ringgit to the household sectors as they are highly exposed to loans and may cause systematic risk to banking sectors just like last time 97 Asian Crisis was caused by the nonperforming corporate loans.

United States elections, Tuesday, 5 November 2024

What Is the Presidential Election Cycle Theory? The theory suggests that markets perform best in the second half of a presidential term when the sitting president tries to boost the economy to get re-elected.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presidentialelectioncycle.asp


ERDOGAN’S ECONOMIC POLICIES
Turkey has been plagued by a currency crisis and skyrocketing inflation since 2021, which economists say are the result of Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that raising interest rates will increase inflation. Simsek said Turkey had no other option but to return to “rational ground.” In a sign that Erdogan’s new administration might pursue more conventional economic policies, Simsek also said there were no “shortcuts or quick fixes” but vowed to oversee Turkey’s finances with “transparency, consistency, accountability and predictability.”

https://apnews.com/article/why-is-turkeys-currency-falling-erdogan-1faf7d58144fc84479c251c3fdeabe2a

ERDOGAN’S ECONOMIC POLICIES
Turkey has been plagued by a currency crisis and skyrocketing inflation since 2021, which economists say are the result of Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that raising interest rates will increase inflation.

Simsek said Turkey had no other option but to return to “rational ground.” In a sign that Erdogan’s new administration might pursue more conventional economic policies, Simsek also said there were no “shortcuts or quick fixes” but vowed to oversee Turkey’s finances with “transparency, consistency, accountability and predictability.”

https://apnews.com/article/why-is-turkeys-currency-falling-erdogan-1faf7d58144fc84479c251c3fdeabe2a

United States elections, Tuesday, 5 November 2024

What Is the Presidential Election Cycle Theory? The theory suggests that markets perform best in the second half of a presidential term when the sitting president tries to boost the economy to get re-elected.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presidentialelectioncycle.asp

Wednesday, September 25th, 2019

Kenanga: Tough operating environment for AirAsia: jet fuel costs accounted for 40% of the total group cost...

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/09/25/kenanga-tough-operating-environment-for-airasia-over-medium-term/

note: this is old news but still relevant as AA's fuel costs are priced in USD and air tickets are priced in MYR. It is a simple math logic. Last time they collected RM3.8 to pay for USD1 fuel costs and now they have to collect RM4.8 to pay for USD1 of fuel costs. Our minister of economy has underestimated the devastating impact of weakening ringgit as our household debt has reached the alarming level.

Big data firms need to use a lot of cold water to cool down their servers and due to the pressure from environmental group those big data firms have no choice but to avoid dirty energy and use clean energy. So for that matters, most of the high tech firms will eventually relocate to Sarawak as Sarawak have the longest Kajang River with plenty of fresh water and Sarawak is also a top player in RE. As far as the problem of skilled engineers is concerned, due to the Sarawak's natural beauty (to attract international top notch digital nomads) and their world's class education system with the ability to speak international languages fluently this well protected region will become the next economic superpower.

Fast forward to year 2030, due to political issue, most high tech companies in Kulim High Tech Park faced no choice but to relocate to Bintulu to take advantages of Bintulu's port facility and clean energy such as hydrogen. Due to constant water issue, most high tech companies in Penang also pulling out and move their operation next to WD's mega factory in Sarawak. Due to energy crisis in Sabah because Sabah Energy SB is buying 0.4 from KL's IPP and selling 0.3 to Sabah's consumer so those small factories in Sabah also faced no choice but relocate to Sarawak and Abang Jo said in order to create a self-contained economy to decouple from West Malaysia's collapsing economy all companies doing business in Sarawak is "encouraged" to use only the banking services provided by Sarawak bank. Also in year 2030, the price of oil is as low as can water as no one will use dirty fuel anymore 😁

Or another word Redtone is more likely a hostile takeover target and maybe related to internet banking...

Just a wile guess. Maybe due to Affin's low rating on ESG as EPF is one of the top 20 largesnt pension funds in the world so when they have to benchmark each other how they are ranked in ESG.

Top 20 largest pension funds in the world:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb5HSj8p/top-pension-fund.jpg

https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20240223/yl/5411308

泰益功过历史自有定谳
在维持砂拉越现有的和谐与多元基础上，泰益的贡献不可抹杀，而砂拉越在联邦政治版图中所拥有的政治地位，尽管是已故首长阿德南沙登的政治遗产，但这也是泰益的保护主义所奠基而来的。

Redtone (around PE20x) on its own will not be able to survive so eventually they will either merge with CelcomDigi (around PE40x) or takeover by TM (around PE15x) so looks for foreign partner with cutting edge technology such as SingTel (around PE13x) so those who bet on Redtone can forget about their annual report but look closely on the development of big telco how they will eat out niche telco like Redtone and how big Telco consortium like Axiata+RHB ventured into Internet Banking 😁

Yes, confirmed beluga is a full time US fund manager. Small traders like us don't have this kind of financial knowledge to understand why Abang Jo has underpaid Affin. I am totally surprised Quek Leng Chan failed to put up a good show as this kind of half-baked takeover deal is his expertise to squeeze his opponent so in a way he thinks to have a business partner like Abang Jo will add lubricant to his HL group because down the road Sarawak will be flooded with mega projects. PMX dare not to mess with Abang Jo, DAP has to fly to Sarawak and said sorry to them and even with an ACE card on hand, QLC also keep quiet and let Abang Jo show hand as if he is holding the best card on the table 😁

The business model of AA is proven so why should we kill the golden goose and opt for the high speed black swan which made no sense at all as far as game theory is concerned.

The minister who always talk about BMW really made Malaysia an an international laughing matter. Who in the world will make their dark history linked to "war camp" a UNESCO World Heritage? Heritage sites are something that give our nation an unique identity and something that we all should be proud of.

The reason Hiroshima is declared UNESCO sites is because Japan is trying to make US and the whole world look really bad (so something like that) for political reason as if the whole world owed them.

In absolute figure GDP Indonesia is not a small country but an economic giant. Malaysia government is loaded with heavy debt and the minister of economy still cannot find a sensible solution to normalize the petrol subsidy (RM50b).

As a minister of economy it is his duty to collect big data to predict the direction of oil price, gold price, USD/Yen, US interest rate and so on but somehow he spends so much time to reinvent the wheel and collect PADU statistic (which is already captured in DOS or MOF's database) to see how to allocate the petrol subsidy which is more of welfare matter rather than an economic issues.

As a minister of economy, he should release a public statement and inform public what is the economic impact of weakening ringgit so the business sectors can plan ahead and see how to hedge their foreign currency contracts. This is what I call a minister of economy.

Come back to the HSR issue. Most people from Singapore will take it to eat BKT in Klang and most people from KL will take it to eat Hainan Chicken Rice in Singapore as most business transactions are done thru internet so do we need HSR for that matter?

Economically there is no reason for Malaysia to build high speed train as we are not yet a high income country. Totally agreed with both Tony (Tony Fernandes and Tony Pua) flying with AA is better option as everyone can fly. If the government go ahead with the high speed train it will kill two birds with one stone as both AA and HSR will be competing with each other and both will fail to achieve the economies of scales. It is sad that DAP is trying to sideline Tony Pua and Kian Ming as both really talking with logical sense.

See Indonesia's GDP and it will shock you :)

https://i.postimg.cc/VkYFp7vx/Indonesia-GDP.jpg

Abang Jo is a humble person and always walk his talk but in corporate takeover deal this will back fire as you never tip off the wolf of wall street to plan ahead so both sides are trying to buildup war chest and what we see here is only the smoke and yet to see the real fire. So those who are late to the party the night is still young.

Quek Leng Chan is holding the ace card via BEA and the wind is so cold that he is really quiet about this deal and GO is out of the equation as BNM will not approve the talk if the deal involved privatization (just my wild guess) as BNM is trying to institutionalize our banking landscape to avoid the soup opera drama likes Silicon Valley Bank.

Knowing QLC's style on hostile takeover, he will squeeze the last drop of juice out of his opponent's pocket in order to cease fire and call it a day or meaning to say "2011 EON Capital Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad 1.42"

祸兮福所倚，福兮祸所伏。I think not many people in Sarawak especially Chinese communities like baimao beside few super rich billionaires timber tycoons as baimao was Sarawak King in olden time and treated Sarawak as his private kingdom. Due to his selfishness which disallowed no one to touch his private kingdom including those corrupted leaders from West Malaysia so until now Sarawak remains a well protected area and on the way to become the economic powerhouse in Malaysia.

Economically there is no reason for Malaysia to build high speed train as we are not yet a high income country. Totally agreed with both Tony (Tony Fernandes and Tony Pua) flying with AA is better option as everyone can fly. If the government go ahead with the high speed train it will kill two birds with one stone as both AA and HSR will be competing with each other and both will fail to achieve the economies of scales. It is sad that DAP is trying to sideline Tony Pua and Kian Ming as both really talking with logical sense.

Dialog, above 2.85 is bullish, below 2.85 is bearish. Key date is 24 Mar 2025

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DIALOG/IaE6FIqO-Time-Cycle-Analysis-Dialog/

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/02/20/sarawak-set-to-become-a-powerhouse

Another senior member of LTAT leadership resigns

KUALA LUMPUR: Another member of the Armed Forces Fund Board's (LTAT) leadership has resigned, making it three resignations over the past one month at the pension fund for 120,000 serving members of the Malaysian Armed Forces.

The head of strategic asset allocation for LTAT, or senior director of strategy, Dayana Rogayah Omar, 39, has tendered her resignation.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/02/1015046/another-senior-member-ltat-leadership-resigns

Malaysia’s Southern Bank rejects hostile offer

The robust defence from the country’s second-smallest bank sets the scene for a highly charged takeover battle, the largest in Malaysia’s financial sector to date and one that could result in one of the biggest deals in south-east Asia this year.

Southern Bank’s blunt statement to the stock exchange did not identify its potential alternative partner. But it said it had asked the central bank for permission to enter into negotiations, a local requirement.

“The board believes an alternative takeover partner will be available that will maximise value to our shareholders,” Southern said, describing the would-be partner as a “major local financial institution”.

Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank have been widely touted as possible partners for Southern, which said last week it was looking for a “white knight” suitor after months of talks with BCH failed to yield a friendly deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b07fc0-9d4a-11da-b1c6-0000779e2340

Redtone double bottom pattern with neckline at 0.90 indicates bullish formation.

https://i.postimg.cc/8PJZBFLN/redtone.jpg

PE analysis: Tesla 46x, CelcomDigi 45x, Astro 43x, Redtone PE 16.7x

Teacher in rural Sarawak purchases own Starlink kit to give students internet access

It is understood that the teacher acquired the Starlink kit in the hope of enhancing his students’ learning experience.

In many remote and rural areas across Sarawak, reliable Internet access is hard to come by.

In another Tik Tok video, the teacher said he purchased the Starlink kit without help from others.

“We bought it ourselves. Even so, the credit should go to the officials that brought Starlink into Malaysia. This device can help enhance our Internet access,” said the teacher.

Last month, Minister of Utility and Telecommunication Datuk Julaihi Narawi said the Sarawak government will evaluate the coverage and commercial aspects of Starlink’s satellite broadband service for possible use in the state.

https://www.theborneopost.com/2023/08/17/teacher-in-rural-sarawak-purchases-own-starlink-kit-to-give-students-internet-access/

The Role of Starlink in the Future of Autonomous Vehicles

Starlink aims to provide global broadband coverage by deploying thousands of small satellites into low Earth orbit. With its ambitious goal of creating a constellation of nearly 12,000 satellites, Starlink has the potential to offer high-speed internet access to even the most remote corners of the world. This could be a game-changer for autonomous vehicles, as they heavily rely on a constant and robust internet connection to function effectively.

One of the main advantages of Starlink for autonomous vehicles is its low latency. Latency refers to the time it takes for data to travel from the vehicle to the server and back. With traditional internet connections, latency can be a significant issue, causing delays in data transmission and potentially compromising the safety of autonomous vehicles.

https://ts2.com.pl/en/the-role-of-starlink-in-the-future-of-autonomous-vehicles/

REDtone, SpaceX ink deal to offer Starlink satellite broadband services across Malaysia

REDtone chief executive officer Lau Bik Soon said the company’s strength as a network integrator will enable them to offer seamless satellite-based services to government and enterprise customers.

“We are targeting sectors which are showing an increasing reliance on satellite services such as oil and gas, telecommunications, shipping and maritime, financial services and plantations.

According to the statement, the satellite market is estimated to be worth RM19.7 billion by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10.9 per cent.

It also said there are currently 5,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and the company has started launching the Gen 2 satellites which enables them to provide digital support to every corner, connecting the unconnected and bridging the digital divide in the country.

As of September 2023, Starlink has connected more than two million active customers in over 60 countries.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2023/11/27/redtone-spacex-ink-deal-to-offer-starlink-satellite-broadband-services-across-malaysia/104508

Redtone, above 1.05 is bullish, below 1.05 is bearish. Key dates to watch are 22 Feb 2024 and 19 Mar 2024.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/REDTONE/BjwvGTkz-Time-Cycle-Analysis-Redtone/

S'pore the 4th largest buyer of Nvidia chips, accounts for 15% of company's revenue

This volume placed Singapore as the fourth largest purchaser of Nvidia's chips behind the U.S. (34.77 per cent), Taiwan (23.91 per cent), and China (22.24 per cent) for the third quarter of 2023. The company's revenue derived from Singapore was also larger than the rest of the world combined, excluding the top three purchasers. There are more than 70 operational data centres in Singapore, accounting for 60 per cent of Southeast Asia's total data centre capacity.

https://mothership.sg/2023/12/singapore-nvidia-buyer/

Singapore's power supply deal with Sarawak basically will put Sarawak directly on the map of the global AI value chain just like last time PDC established by Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu with HP moved in to Penang and then a chip cluster was developed and create more downstream industries and created Unisem and MPI and so on.

KUCHING - Malaysia’s Sarawak state aims to provide up to one gigawatt (GW) of renewable energy to Singapore by 2032, with negotiations to supply the electricity via submarine cables now at an advanced stage, according to Sarawak state energy unit Sarawak Energy Berhad (SEB).

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sarawak-in-talks-to-supply-1-gw-renewable-energy-to-s-pore-by-2032-sarawak-energy

If I read the news correctly, Sarawak will incur zero cost in this power supply to Singapore as the undersea cable will be built by Singapore at their own cost. The big question is why don't Singapore buy from Peninsular Malaysia with cheaper startup cost? Yes, the answer maybe related to RE to comply with the world's highest standard of ESG but those who have high tech knowledge must know this kind of undersea cable can be used to transmit high-speed data (Broadband over Power Lines) and all these developments are pointing to one direction that is AI technology and maybe in future the plan is to link up to Indonesia Nusantara and then all the way to Australia. Never underestimate the imagination of our small neighbor as they always think ahead of time and always several decades ahead of us in economic planning.

When you need to buy water from JB you have to integrate your economy with JB so that the water will keep flowing and for the same reason if you need to rely on Sarawak's RE you have to integrate your economy with Sarawak so that the RE will keep flowing. Affin Bank is in the forefront of all these exciting economic developments and those who are late to the party the night is still young...

https://www.theborneopost.com/2023/08/14/abg-jo-swak-sovereign-wealth-future-fund-to-start-operation-on-jan-1-2024-with-initial-appropriation-of-rm8-bln-from-state/

https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2023/brunei-darussalam-central-bank-and-mas-deepen-cooperation-in-financial-supervision