That means:

1. 3 weeks after shut-in, production was restored to 50%
2. 4 weeks after shut-in, production was restored to 60%
3. 9 weeks after shut-in, production is expected to be restored to 80%
4. xx weeks after shut-in, production is expected to be restored to 100%

It's not as bad as initially feared, with many analysts penciling in 6 months of zero production.

Question now is, what's the hold up to 100% production, and when will that happen?

The latest situation at Kraken is as follows:

- One of the original HSP transformer units has been refurbished and has arrived offshore at the FPSO
- We hope to install that unit and return it to service in the next 1-2 weeks, restoring production to c.80%
- Options enabling a return to full production are under evaluation and will be actioned as soon as possible

Thanks Gabriel. Based on the Youtube interview with Navigator CEO shared a couple weeks ago, we are still 9 mths to a year away from any definitive deal being signed with a customer, and then a further 3 years to operationalisation. Conservatively, this venture, if it does indeed materialise, will only see "first C02" in mid 2027, still a good 4 years away. Plus, I do not believe this will be a particularly highly profitable venture like FPSO given the smaller capex outlay. Where Naviagtor and Bumi will need to aim for, over the longer term, would be to have multiple clusters, as they'll have higher margins with a larger volume of said business. Still, a step in the right direction, but with limited near to medium term financial upside.

Robert is the technical guy, so there you go!

@Felix, in the AGM the CEO said the FPSO is ready for first oil, with the delay coming from the subsea contractors side. Quite certain there was no mention of a delay in onshore facilities.

@Felix888, I don't think so. Sapura's role is relating to the CPP (fixed platform), not FPSO (floating platform).

@jasongks

My friend, you are foolish to think this forum has even an iota of impact on the market direction (except maybe in rare circumstances when market-moving insider information is shared, such as the resumption of Kraken oil production more than a week before Bumi Armada announced it).

Pessimism is as much welcomed, if not more welcomed, than optimism. Especially if it is substantiated.

Please do not listen to unfounded rumours. As of this point in time, production remains at between 50% - 60% on a single train. The second train operation has yet to resume, it's expected to happen in the coming 2 to 4 weeks.

I've yet to watch it, if any interesting tidbit, please share!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWvLMp8W3RE

Navigator Holdings CEO, Mads Peter Zacho, Discusses the Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture - June 30, 2023

Anybody have the full article on Kraken from UpstreamOnline?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/enquest-and-bumi-armada-working-hard-to-return-to-normal-at-north-sea-oilfield/2-1-1475735

EnQuest and Bumi Armada working hard to return to normal at North Sea oilfield

UK operator EnQuest has acknowledged there was an operational fault that forced the shutdown of the Kraken offshore oilfield in the North Sea and that it is working to return to pre-shutdown levels of production.

The field was shut down in late May following a sudden failure of hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformers on the Armada Kraken floating production, storage and offloading vessel, as reported by the FPSO’s owner Bumi Armada on 2 June.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/enquest-and-bumi-armada-working-hard-to-return-to-normal-at-north-sea-oilfield/2-1-1475735

@Robert, to the best of my knowledge, it is imminent, by the end of July. As to when exactly, not even my source knows.

Then again Patrick is in KL for international conferences. Highly likely the contract would be signed in France or Angola instead.

TotalEnergies big boss is in town, wonder if they will sign anything with Bumi Armada

Have a great weekend all! Let's hope next week is a better week. Anticipating Cameia FPSO announcement anything within the next month now.

Questions regarding Bluestreaks JV:

1) Is this related to the recent licensing round in the UK, where 20 licenses were awarded to 12 companies?

The Bluestreak JV was formed to align with the licensing round of the storage licenses by NSTA.

2) Has the JV secured one of these licenses?

The JV is not a storage company and therefore did not apply for one of the licenses, but is rather a non-pipeline transportation and injection solution with the intention of engaging the awardees of the storage licenses.

3) Is my understanding correct that Navigator will be responsible for the shuttle tankers while the JV partner would be responsible for the floating carbon storage and injection unit?

Yes, Navigator would design, build, and operate the shuttle tankers while Bumi Armada Berhad would handle the floating carbon storage and injection unit.

4) When is / are commercial agreements expected to be signed?

Commercial discussions are still ongoing and involving several stakeholders in the CO2 emitting/capture, transportation, and storage infrastructure process. FID likely later this year/early 2024.

A positive update, the Armada Kraken FPSO is targeted to return to full production in the matter of weeks, not months. We're looking at between the next 2 to 4 weeks.

@MM78 just keep it simple, look at the cost of the 650k shares you're holding.

Realized profits/losses shouldn't be a part of the equation.

@MM78, never sold yet

After the recent purchases, my average is now RM0.295. Prior to that it was RM0.262. I have been forced to "average up" each time. My original buy back in October 2020 was 350k at 22.5 sen.

I personally have no issues with IBs, they are free to give their independent opinion and share sensible/non-sensible target prices. I hold them in low regard, but from time to time, they do have some decent analysis as they have access to senior management, which we minority shareholders obviously lack.

CyrusQ can you share the direct link

I'm interested in the research reports from RHB, CIMB and UOB, if anyone has access to these.

Any new research reports published today?

@alenac, obviously. A step in the right direction nonetheless, and far from the doom and gloom we once thought we were in when the field was fully shut-in.

They need to investigate and understand the root cause of multiple transformers failing, and they will also need to replace the failed transformers. Only then we can go back to 100%. After speaking with multiple people within the industry, I'm confident this can be achieved within the next 2 to 3 months.

All those who've bought in low at under RM0.45, rejoice. We're unlikely to came back down to these levels, perhaps ever.

Bursa Malaysia subsequently reverted and asked for documentary proof, which I duly provided and they acknowledged receipt of today morning.

My email:

Dear Sir/Madam,

I would like to lodge an official complaint against Bumi Armada Berhad for withholding material information from investors, particularly minority shareholders.

I make reference to the announcement titled "Unplanned Kraken Shut-in" dated 2 June 2023 made via Bursa Malaysia.

Here, the statement ended by saying "Further updates will be made from time to time when there are material developments".

I have it on good authority, from xxx, the xxx at Enquest, who operate the Kraken field, that the Armada Kraken FPSO resumed production last week Monday, 12th June 2023, and has been producing oil on a single train at roughly 50% capacity.

Is this not a Material development? Why has Bumi Armada Berhad not issued a further update on the same to Bursa Malaysia? Minority shareholders are disadvantaged, as insiders would have known well in advance that production had resumed in some capacity.

Appreciate if Bursa Malaysia investigates this matter further and enforce transparency in matters such as this.

Thank you!

3 more key announcements to be expected within the next 3-4 months:

1) Cameia FPSO ESPCC award (1 July - 31 July 2023)
2) Armada Kraken return to 100% production (1 July - 30 September 2023)
3) Armada Sterling V first oil (1 August - 31 October 2023)

Not sure if syok sendiri or not, but I sent an email to Bursa Malaysia on this matter yesterday.

Masukkk!!!

This JV might be related to the CCS licenses awarded recently in the UK. Either the JV has secured a license, or they will be servicing companies that have secured a license.

https://www.oedigital.com/news/505199-uk-offers-20-offshore-carbon-storage-licenses-to-12-companies

So this announcement actually has two positive news:

1) 50:50 JV to develop carbon capture, storage, transport and injection solution for clients.
2) Separately, Bumi Armada is engineering a carbon capture injection system for a gas field.

Woah, there is also this hidden nugget:

"The Company is also engineering a carbon capture injection system for a gas field incorporating its experience."

"By leveraging the expertise and experience of its principal shareholders, it is anticipated that the Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture will design and implement a value chain of shuttle tankers delivering to a floating carbon storage & injection unit."

My understanding of this (i.e. "leveraging the expertise and experience of its principal shareholders") is that Navigator will be responsible for the shuttle tankers and Bumi Armada will be responsible for the floating carbon storage and injection unit ("FCSIU").

The transaction is subject to the execution of a definitive joint venture agreement, approval by the boards of directors of both Bumi Armada and Navigator, regulatory approvals where applicable and other customary closing conditions. The parties anticipate entering into a definitive joint venture agreement by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. The commercialisation of the Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture is subject to sufficient long-term customer commitments.

The Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture, to be owned 50% by Bumi Armada and 50% by Navigator, aims to provide an end-to-end solution for carbon emitters to capture, transport, sequester and store their carbon dioxide emissions in line with the United Kingdom’s Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy.


By leveraging the expertise and experience of its principal shareholders, it is anticipated that the Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture will design and implement a value chain of shuttle tankers delivering to a floating carbon storage & injection unit. The complete value chain is expected to safely and reliably transport and provide buffer storage of liquid carbon dioxide. The CO2 is intended to be subsequently injected into offshore storage aquifers and/or depleted oil and gas reservoirs in a controlled manner with full surveillance and management of the permanent storage location. This approach is anticipated to allow the Bluestreak CO2 Joint Venture to serve emitters with no access to pipeline infrastructure, to effectively manage their CO2 emissions.


It is estimated that the potential market in the United Kingdom alone is over 30 million tonnes of CO2 per annum from emitters who are not proximate to existing awarded carbon capture, usage and storage clusters. Bumi Armada and Navigator are in initial discussions with a number of emitters and if successful, the first shipment of CO2 is anticipated by the parties to take place three years after taking final investment decision.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3363281

Nothing concrete yet, just a MOU for now. But a step in the right direction, could be very lucrative once a concrete FID is taken.

@sense maker you talk absolute nonsense. From a shut-in state to 50% production with a single train IS a material development that until now, Bumi Armada has failed to disclose to the market.

I will write a report to Bursa Malaysia later today, and urge all minority shareholders to do the same.

Any recent updated research reports? From CIMB, RHB, UOB etc?

Kudos Robert, you did correctly indicate in your writings that there are other pumps with transformers that can be used as a makeshift replacement / stand-in for the HSP transformers.

Are you an engineer? Have you worked on FPSOs? Any contacts within the industry that can reach someone in the Kraken crew?

Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts (updated 16 June 2023):

New wins:

1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from TotalEnergies - This is only an EPC contract and will only sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract
2) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia), Palok field (Mexico), Salam-Patawali (Malaysia)
3) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to be soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America
4) Finalization of the Mumbai Port FSRU project
5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels as flurry of work in the region due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as at 31 Dec 2022 are laid up
6) New contract award relating to a floating carbon storage and injection vessel

Green energy:
1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO)
2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO
3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures materialise

Business as usual:
1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
2) To repair the issues with the Kraken FPSO's HSP transformers so the FPSO can return to full operational capacity (Kraken FPSO presently only running at 50% capacity)

Contract extensions:
1) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being drilled in the aged TGT field

-----------------

Note: All the above comes from my own research. Let me know if I've missed out on anything. I maintain that the Q4 2022 results, while extremely solid, were wholly "unexciting". We need positive developments that would enhance the long-term wellbeing of the company, only this will ultimately push the share price to higher levels.

Update to my post dated 2023-02-27 11:51

Catalysts achieved:

- Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO (sold for USD20m)
- Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel (sold for ~USD15m)
- Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (1-year extension worth USD43m secured)

New catalyst:

- To repair the issues with the Kraken FPSO's HSP transformers so the FPSO can return to full operational capacity (Kraken FPSO presently only running at 50% capacity)

This is quite a minor "win", each one-year extension for the Armada Sterling II is worth roughly 0.5 - 0.6 sen / share. But I'll take this win, hopefully a smaller win leading to larger wins in the near future (wink offshore carbon storage and injection award, wink Cameia FPSO award)

@Felix, my bad and I have corrected my calculations.

"The contract is for a fixed period of nine years with an extension option of an additional seven years on yearly basis. The contract is valued at approximately USD 740 million with an additional USD 340 million for the optional extension period."

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/ongc-bumi-armada-in-740-mln-fpso-charter-deal/#:~:text=The%20contract%20is%20valued%20at,western%20coast%20of%20Mumbai%2C%20India.

The $43mil for one year extension is slightly lower than the original extension option of $340mil for 7 years (i.e. $48mil per year). Might be due to the exchange rate fluctuations since 2013, as the contract award by ONGC s usually based on Indian Rupees.

This is a mildly positive development. Question remains why just one year, why not 7 years. Perhaps it is risk management from ONGC to protect itself from low oil prices.

Regardless, anything above the firm charter period is usually a bonus. But at $43mil per annum, the effective apportionment to Bumi Armada will be around $21mil (49% stake in the JV) but there will be no impact to topline as JV revenue is not consolidated at the Group level.

Extensions usually have a profit margin >30% as the vessel would be almost fully depreciated and the financing fully paid off, so conservatively this would contribute around 1/3 * $21mil = $7mil to Bumi Armada's bottomline for that one year extension period (roughly RM32mil at today's exchange rate).

Also, Bumi Armada will get a better rate for yearly extensions. There is usually a discount provided for a multi-year extension. The latter however is "safer" as it provides a longer-term earnings visibility.

umi Armada Berhad (“Bumi Armada” or the “Company”) wishes to announce that its jointly controlled entity, SP Armada Oil Exploration Private Limited (“SPAOEPL”) recently received notification from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited ("ONGC") of India, about its intention to extend the charter hire of a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessel ("Armada Sterling II FPSO") for one year from the expiry of the present firm time-charter. The value of the contract extension is approximately US$43m.



Under the original contract signed between ONGC and SPAOEPL on 13 March 2013, Armada Sterling II FPSO was chartered by ONGC to operate in the ONGC Cluster-7 field located about 210km off the west coast of Mumbai, India under a nine-year firm time-charter, with seven annual extension options. The original nine-year firm time-charter will expire on 7 March 2024.



SPAOEPL is a 49% less 1 share: 51% plus 1 share joint venture between Bumi Armada and Shapoorji Pallonji Energy Private Limited (formerly known as Shapoorji Pallonji Oil and Gas Private Limited) of India. ONGC is India's state-owned oil company listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE).



Financial Effects



The contract extension is expected to contribute positively to the future earnings of Bumi Armada Group.



Risks Associated with the Contract



The risks associated with the contract extension are normal operational risks which can be mitigated through Bumi Armada's system of asset management and business controls.



Directors' and Major Shareholders' Interest



None of the Directors and/or major shareholders of the Company or persons connected with them have any interest, direct or indirect in the said contract extension.



This announcement is dated 16 June 2023.

Load up while the price permits.

Felix you are double counting what I've already done man. And I'm being more Conservative assuming a 50% haircut as opposed to your 30% haircut