thx logitrader :-)

so is the privatisation news confirmed? AK will probably buy it cheap at average 2 weeks price.... still does not compensate those who have held armada for longer periods. So do one invest here or pick up other more fundamentally sound companies that are undervalued?

in economics.... recession and inflation is easily explained, as in decrease in aggregate demand and increase in aggregate demand... but when aggregate supply changes (supply shocks), thats when havoc happens.... as in now, an decrease in aggregate supply (ie. increase in wages, or sharp increase in input prices) this we call as stagflation.... but today we have decrease in energy price, therefore aggregate supply curve shifts right.... for this there is little remedy, but for aggregate demand to retreat in order to reduce prices further, and bring market to equilibrium... but will the world leaders see this and make the right adjustments is yet to be seen

Hi @eastlands... the day you posted asking for advise at 16c today its 23c... i think that answers your question. Warrants thrive in this type of topsy turvy market... at 23c, the breakeven KLCI is 1,726; and index now at 1,750 so punters are speculating index will further retreat...

amazing counter .... umwog, trading at 21x P/E when its peers have gone down to 10x... downside is not over yet the way i see it

we shd move towards singapore structure..... for analysts where they are incentivised by commissions from positive gains from their recommendation... especially on the short calls

Hi calvintaneng.... you are rite, ttm past earnings, therefore assuming the price stays the same, and future earnings are lower than ttm... the P/E can go even lower :-(

i guess this oil wave has sort off normalised the o&g P/Es. From an economics perspective, drop if fuel/energy prices are actually good... as it will spur economy, just need to counter think and act accordingly. Nothing's lost if we can balance our investments ... just like life :-)

flashback.... 15 May 2012, sk petro the merged entity was listed at RM2 along with cash back to shareholders... that does not seem too far away, nor is the share price. I guess the fate of local o&g counters will rely on petronas' next steps on what specific budgets will be cut

at RM1.15.... the PE ratio is at equilibrium 10.5x... similar to skpetro

finally skpetro has reached to a PE ratio of 10.9x (ttm) .... what it shd have been from start - rather than the 27, 28x

funny company..... as of June 2014, company has 868K in cash balance, over 200 million in borrowings, out of which 135 million is listed under current liabilities !!!! meaning payable within a year...... and making losses since 2008..... apa cerita here?

how can dialog be at 1.53 just beside its year low of 1.48... when its signing pengerang contracts with petronas.... am i missing something here? or is it riding the O&G downside wave...?

the only profits that I have from genting is the warrant which I think i (force to ... of course) buy at RM1.50 other than that mother share is stagnant.... somehow, i think genting mngt has a strategy to reward shareholders not thru capital gain in mother share but thru "side-door" warrants appreciation.... which they issue now then then, to "loyal" long term shareholders....

iv been holding genting since.... only god knows when, i realise the way to make money is from the warrants etc that is attached with their share restructuring.... just on the mother share alone there is little capital gain to me made from simple buy hold sell.... but rather got to look out for their free warrants that goes along with their periodic restructuring... just my 2 cents opinion

support level.... NTA at 43.5c

shocking to see the june 2014 financials. cumulative period revenue is 206m while trade receivable is 315m. Looks like all the sales in sitting unpaid under debtors... not a good sign (write-offs ...possible?), and its inevitable that the year will report a loss....

Forecast (Kenanga) : Given the short-term bearish outlook, we opt to be more conservative on ALAM’s FY15E prospects, especially in regards to the pipelay-barge prospects, where we now forecast a slight loss of RM2.0m (from a profit of RM4.8m previously). This reduces our FY15 net estimates by 5% to RM95.8m (from RM100.8m).... projecting a loss !!! whats the probability of this being true?

ah the middle class....so little have been written about this class... alas there is one and a cheerful one at that :-)

alpha... how about writing up on some blue-chips, companies like ifca within the ace market .... send me the chills :-)

hi davidtkt ... if you think the index will go up further (breakeven 1883 at your purchase cost) then based on this assumption you may want to hold on to the warrant... otherwise at current index level, the wa is worth RM0... but thats what warrant is all about.... its about future expectation rather than current level...

hi bombastic.... the breakeven formula for put; strike price - purchase price X conversion rate = 1880 - 0.16 x 667 = 1,773; at current index of 1841 the put-wa is valued at 6c (currently trading at 14.5c, premium of 141%)...

davidtkt ... index now at 1841, your fbmklci-ci strike price is 1850, so (1841-1850)/667 = -0.01.... meaning "out of money" ... your breakeven index is 1883; in order for you to be "in the money" at your purchase price of $0.05 the index need to be at 1883 and above.... cheers

does anyone know where i can get more info on this ETF?

this is a put warrant (short).... if u buy at 15 cents say, only at index price of 1,780 and below you make money ... not otherwise

wow AhMoi sir.... i stand corrected, I did not know you can easily go and get the old threads... you must teach me how.... yes im still learning, lot more to go actually... and im no expert, im even below novice ... :-)

... there is more downfall to come from the oil and gas sector, do not for one think that a bear can come and leave in a matter of couple of weeks... and beware of the "teasers" which will make it look market is on the rebound... caution : dont be fooled by the fools... :-)

Another way is to calculate the BE (breakeven) point rather than the discount/premium as one will not realise the magnitude of the discount/premium.... going back to myoswee's case (good job :-) the breakeven is

= Exercise Price - (Purchase Price x Exercise Ratio) = 1880 - (0.155 x 667) = 1,777; which means if u buy the put warrant at $0.155 your breakeven point is KLCI at 1,777 (any value below this level - at maturity - you are positive).

This is european style, so only settled at expiry and not earlier... so tough. Few days back the wa was trading at 8.5c, it had a breakeven of 1,823.

beware of the time lag that the warrant carries.... sometimes there may be a sudden increase in KLCI, but the wa will not move much and then next day ....drops

in a bear market... all benchmarks and target price go out the window... whats left is NTA, hope and pray price does not dip this floor... :-(

conversion price is 51cents. Today warrant is down 4.5c closing price 10.5cents, and mother share at 53.5cents. If mother share move up 1oc to 63.5cents, then about 100% gain on warrants.... oh wow

everyday.... is a good day to buy :-( wish can short....

tan kw.... u shd consider options. I dont deal in options and futures... but i have to read about them in order to pass my CFA exams this Dec .. errrrgh. But in options, one does not need to tie down capital like what is done in shares.... and you can punt either ways, call - up or put - down... so in any market condition is a good time to buy and sell. The best part about options are .... the most you can lose is how much? well... zero... because you choose NOT to exercise the option, and your loss is purely limited to the option cost.... transaction cost. Just a thot....

the last recession in 2008/9 was due to crude oil shooting up the roof... today crude brent is on its way south.... with US potentially turning into a net exporter by 2017... the world economy shd see it as a sign of good times.... to prosper with low energy cost.... but the market is made up of whom? People like us..... who are equally lost.... so there u go :-)

since u guys punt sumatec.... you shd perhaps consider futures and options. All have similar criteria..... gambling :-)

Options are the best..... the most you can lose is guess what.... zero. Yup... zero... coz u have the option NOT to exercise, and you only lose the call option price.... or if you feel price will go down, put option price. Minimum upfront..... and unlimited upside (for call). Whereas for sumatec.... you have to sink in the whole capital (worse if you borrow part and sink in as well).... and then wait and wait.... sometimes to kingdom come ....

no mudslinging in futures/options... as its purely technical; only draw back is it has expiry date (which is also good as you don need to sink capital and wait till kingdom come :-)

I dont mean to say anything negative here.... but just considering the alternatives.... any comments?

Hi @maggiel.... thanks for the guidance, I didn't know the calculation is that easy :-) yes makes sense.... so breakeven price ex-both rights and bonus is RM1.8575, and current loss will be RM0.35/share.
The report mentions that the rights were issued at 32% discount to the trading prices then, so where did this discount vanish off to? :-O Is it included in the RM0.35/share? Does it mean that assuming the rights were issued originally at no discount, then the loss today will be more than RM0.35/share?

Rights issue at 32% discount = RM1.32; assuming there were no discount, rights would have been RM1.94/share? right

can someone help calculate the theoretical ex-rights ex-bonus shs price of armada? Which were each one-for-two basis. Assuming that we start off with a price of RM3.04 closing on the day the announcement was made. Rights price was placed at RM1.32/share.

Reports state that the TERP (theoretical ex-right price) for the rights at RM1.32 is RM1.98 (don know how they calculated this), but is this before or after the bonus issue?

If I include bonus issue, can I assume the ex-all price to be at RM1.32 (1.98x3/2)...

If the above is correct, does it mean those who bought the shs at RM3.04 are "in the money"?

brent has direct impact on upstream O&G, indirect impact on all O&G companies... and further impact on macroeconomics of the world economies.... does anyone here know whats brent at now? It hit all 3 year low just last week.... and this i say are early tell-tale signs...

as for armada, they keep showing healthy quarter profits.... so I dont see the project failures?

solid counter..... qtr in qtr out profit..... current P/E at 12 times, down from high of 30 times in 2012.... sooo itching to go in at 1.52.... errrrgh (will brent go further down.... thats the big Q?)

OMG.... what happen to skpetro? was there any negative news or sentiment? all analyst value this counter at RM5 minimum...

the "koay" connections.... I like ur enthusiasm... so whats the game here, is there a specific news we waiting for? sp div, takeover? i feel itchy to get back to my beloved skpetro... :-)

im just worried.... company will depress any news forthcoming, and after 3 working days.... contra players will dump... and back to square 1 :(

guys... i work in the oil and gas sector in Qatar. Our concentration here is mainly on exploration & production company rather than oil and gas services companies, who skims margin. But is skpetro into upstream production as well? This seems to be 1 counter where all analysts have TP well well above what it has traded for over a year. Why so bullish on valuation, I dont know? Where I am at..... PE ratio's of 15 is already respectable and if it goes up to 18-19... institutional players will bring it down to reality... malaysia i think is lain cerita... so shd I go in NOW to beli beli... :-)

i just bot at 86.5c lots and lots and hope that this forex loss issue - which shd be temporary - will boil over, my target is only RM1.00 which I feel is not too difficult looking at the revenue growth..... but I cud be wrong though :)

...end the road for Lion Cor :( regularization or de-listing

new way for politicians to make some money....buy using govt money (or govt guaranteed bonds) and then list... simple mathematics

guru... KC Loh, do u think its ripe time to pick up sapura kencana? i think 3.69 sounds kinda right.... don u think? Or are there any other "beaten-up" stocks to also consider? cheers ...

thx KC... so biggest cost is fuel, and it has a RM17K return per plane per transit... and with brent targeted to go lower so there is an upside then... i guess, how about AAX?

hey KC & the sunshine band.... :) and people, this is an interesting read... SEA is really the growth area if you ask me, 11 countries with combined population of over 650m, so Tony is spot on on his target market... but AA's debt is going to surely pose an uphill task ... assuming a simple 7% interest charge on 10b debt is already 700m outflow on financing charges alone...

http://www.qe.com.qa/pps/qe/qe%20english%20portal/Pages/Home/

anyone interested can chk this site out....

kc loh.... if im senator then you must be dewan negara speaker ...heeee, still gpiong strong I see... and fending off violent criticisms along the way... keep it up buddy :-)