Posted by wongck > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Penang's water consumption had reached 927 million liters per day (MLD) on Sunday (March 17) compared to last year's average total of 877 MLD. “This shows an increase as high as 50 MLD from year to year.

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Based on PBA latest annual report, PBA bear subsidy RM 115.2m for Penang domestic water user. Management expect to decrease these subsidy significantly following 1 Feb water traffic hike.

There are total 593,255 domestic account and 461,350 consume < 35m3, while balance 131,905 consume > 35m3
Based on new water traffic,
1. domestic account water consumption < 35m3 charge 86sen, is 50sen hike per m3
Water bill increase 50sen x 35m3 = hike RM 17.5/account
Total domestic account 461,350 x RM 17.5 = RM 8.07 million/month

2. domestic account water consumption > 35m3 charge RM 2.07, is RM 1.39 hike per m3
Water bill increase 50sen x first 35m3 = hike RM 17.5/account
Water bill increase RM 1.39 x (35m3 - 45m3)= hike RM 13.9/account
Total domestic account 131,905 x (RM 17.6 + RM 13.9) = RM 4.15 million/month

In total water traffic hike impact RM 8.07 + RM 4.15 = RM 12.22 million per month or Quarterly hike RM 36.7 million or Hike RM 146.8m pa

Remark: To arrive above calculation，
1. assumption is make for maximum consumption up to 35m3 for those consume categori <35m3, by assume all consume 35m3
2. assumption is made for minimum consumption above 35m3 for those consume categori > 35m3 by assume all consume additional 10m3
3. assumption is made to exclude domestic bulk meter whom stay in high rise apartment in which bulk meter water traffic hike flat rate at 35sen m3 have increase significantly to charge flat rate RM 1.73 m3 (its massive hike RM 1.38 per m3)

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

These additional RM 146.8 m pa due to domestic water traffic is to

1. Decrease water subsidy significantly
2. Opex - To cope higher operation cost such as pipe replacement
3. Capex - To fund expansion capacity on exiting water treatment capacity and to built new water treatment plant

Remark: The amount spend on Capex will NOT affect PBA profit margin, therefore, all water traffic hike will direct positive to bottom-line, increase profit margin directly. The profit earn then channel to fund capacity assets and built additional water treatment plant which will record as additional new assets to PBA.

Only amount spend on opex such as pipe replacement will affect PBA profit margin, the higher rate of old pipe replacement to new pipe translate directly to increase operation cost, therefore decrease profit margin from above water traffic hike

Posted by goldenhope > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Capex will increase depreciation and reduce cash flow hence reduce the ability to pay higher dividend

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Increase revenue through traffic hike is direct increase profit earning. The surge in profit allow higher capital to fund capex such as increase water treatment capacity, built new water treatment plant to meet increase water demand which is expect to leap up by another 30% by 2030. The surge in water demand in turn increase higher revenue to PBA. It's win win cycle to generate additional positive cash flow. Of course new and additional water treatment assets subject to annual depreciation review

Posted by dragon328 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@hng33, that's right. The increase in water tariffs will raise PBA's revenue by over RM100m a year, the bulk of which will flow to the bottom line.

The increased operating cashflows from the water tariff hike are to fund the capex for next few years, estimated at over RM300m for next 5 years. Hence PBA needs the additional operating cashflows of at least RM100m a year to cater for such capex and slightly increased opex.

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Dragon328
I expect much higher revenue increase than RM 100m as Penang water consumption just surge new high recently, and higher water consumption is at higher traffic band category at RM 2.07 per m3 which is increase RM1.37 per m3 hike compared to lower band category 50sen per m3 hike.

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Compared between PBA and RANHILL, PBA strategy is more focus on capex increase water treatment plant capacity to increase treated water supply to meet ever increasing Penang water consumption. Many penang land are consider heritage area, therefore, limit opex on pipe replacement effort.

On the other hand, RANHILL strategy is more focus on opex to aggressively pipe replacement, incur very high cost to meet targeted non revenue water%.

Posted by ValueInv888 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/05/05/perak-agrees-to-supply-water-to-penang-says-pm-anwar

Posted by MrFox > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

the REAL is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
what a feeling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by troy88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Back to uptrend bullish mode!

Posted by MrFox > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

OMG!!!!!!!!!! wwss!!!!!

haha

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Good move of PBA today.

Looks like insiders are buying ahead of quarterly result announcement end of this month.

Posted by MrFox > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

certainly QR will be par excellence!!!!
whispering words of wisdom!!!

haha

Posted by MrFox > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The REAL is coming!!!!!!!!!!!
All eyes shall SEE !!!!!!!

haha

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Penang has unveiled several crucial initiatives focused on strengthening the state's position as a global economic leader in three key sectors: trade, technology, and tourism.... More water needed....

Chow also revealed that the federal government has given the greenlight for the Kerian Integrated Green Industrial Park to supply surplus water from the park to Penang - - - - > source treated water fom Perak - - ->
higher Penang water traffic rate in next 3 year review

Posted by MrFox > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The REAL is coming!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Perak penang water transfer have change from raw water to treated water. Therefore, PBA needless to built new water treatment plant to process raw water. These massive capex will alleviate PBA cash hoard forward. PBA only need to lay new pipeline to connect Perak water treatment plant to Penang mainland seberang prai, which free up existing PBA own water capacity to focus supply water to its island Penang.

With direct transfer treated water fro Perak instead of raw water, Penang water traffic will hike much more higher forward.

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

With less capex forward, PBA afford to opt much more higher cash dividend payout forward

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

It will be interesting to see how much profit PBA can achieve after the water tariff hike.

If there is no more provision for deferred tax charges, my estimation is for RM15m (normal quarterly profit before tariff hike) + RM60m/4 *2/3 = RM25 million net profit for this coming Q1 FY2024

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

If the revenue increase is as high as RM146m as hng33 stated above, and most of the topline increase flows through to the bottom line, then net profit could increase by RM110 million a year and this upcoming Q1 FY24 may see net profit jump to:
RM15m + RM110m/4 *2/3 = RM33 million

Posted by calvintaneng > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CALVIN TAN SAY, THANK YOU 9 MILLION TIMES FOR 9 MILLION PAGE VIEWS IN i3 INVESTORS' FORUM!"

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-05-10-story-h-181811054-CALVIN_TAN_SAY_THANK_YOU_9_MILLION_TIMES_FOR_9_MILLION_PAGE_VIEWS_IN_i3

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

dragon328
All state now operates under assets light business model. All state water assets now transfer to Federal PAAB which in turn leaseback these water assets to state water operator like PBA, Ranhill SAJ. These state water operator are task to focus on operating these water treatment assets, pipeline, maintain and collect water traffic fee from customer to repay back lease to PAAB under 45 year leaseback arrangement.

Under 45 leaseback arrangement, PAAB charge interest 6% and incur escalating 2.5% fees on outstanding on state operator. The repayment amount varies dependent amount of water assets acquire by PAAB. For Penang, PAAB acquire assets total RM 660m, and PBA repayment is about RM 14.5 m pa since 2009. These repayment amount will increase if PPAB fund to require to built additional new water assets for Penang. The principal amount repayment PBA pay lease to PAAB have since increase to RM 16.5m pa.

Under arrangement, state operator have first right option to use its own fund to built additional water asset or secure fund from banking if their interest cost is less than PAAB. Therefore, PAB need increase water traffic to increase its profitability and cash to fund new water asset instead of solely rely on PAAB funding.

While PBA gradually stand firm financially with net cash position, another water operator Ranhill SAJ have seek moratorium from PAAB since 2021. It have since continued opt only partial lease rental to PAAB in 2022 and 2023 till now.

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

In April 2023, PAAB has notified Ranhill SAJ on the rejection of Ranhill SAJ application for moratorium on partial lease rental for 2022-2023.

Beside, PAAB, via letter dated 15 May 2023 inform Ranhill SAJ it will charge late payment intereswt on outstanding lease payment begin from 1 June 2023 at rate 6.65% pa

On 25 oct 2023, Ranhill SAJ received demand letter from PAAB in relation to partial lease rental for 2022-2023amounting to RM 95.1 m (Source: Ranhill annual report 2023, page 147)

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Technology, Property, and Construction - Penang- Silicon Hub of ASEAN
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/rhbinvest/2024-05-09-story-h-181842088-Technology_Property_and_Construction_Penang_Silicon_Hub_of_ASEAN

Remark: Penang water consumption is expected to growth from 877MLD in 2023 to 1500MLD in 2030.

PBA revenue growth is compounded propel by both increase water sold + water traffic hike every 3 year review

Posted by MrFox > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

👍

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

PBA
a super A1 stock is making a comeback.
its on recovery.
its location is now at 2nd HL, higher-low.
let's expect, the ROCKET will provide the rocket trend again to PBA.
a nice QR PAT soon is the impetus to fly to a new ATH n everything's nice...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ER4EA7nh/

Posted by hng33 > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Coming Q result
1. Account 2 month domestic traffic hike

2. Continue full Q non domestic traffic hike

3. Account 2 month Electricity cost pass through 7sen/m3 water traffic hike to both domestic and non domestic water user.

4. Additional 50MLD Penang water consumption recorded

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

waaah.... just realised PBA so thinly traded, or is it seasonal? the buy and sell volumes are chump change only hahahaha.... :-) peace

Posted by hng33 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

PBA profitability and valuation is much more better than Ranhill

Posted by MrFox > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

good closing

Posted by goldenhope > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Users complained the water bill charges were extremely high.

Posted by MrFox > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

goldenhope

256 posts

Posted by goldenhope > 26 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Users complained the water bill charges were extremely high.

shreholders dun complaint!!

haha

Posted by hng33 > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Ranhill - new water rate structure is RM1.05 per cubic metre for those who use 20 per cubic metre, up from 80 sen, increase 20.5sen or 31%. For usage from 20 cubic metres to 35 cubic metres, the price has increased from RM2 to RM2.35 per cubic metre, increase 35sen or 17.5%. For water consumption exceeding 35 cubic metres, the new rate will change from RM3 to RM3.15 per cubic metre, increase 15sen or 5%.

PBA - new water rates for Penang to be 62sen per cubic metre for those who use 20 per cubic metre and below a month, increase significantly 40sen or 180% from old rate 22sen per cubic metre. Those who use 20 to 35 cubic metre will be charged RM1.17 per cubic metre, increase significantly 69sen or 143% from old rate 48sen per cubic metre. and those exceeding 35 cubic metres will be charged RM2.07 per cubic metres, increase significantly RM 1.39 or 200% from old rate 68sen per cubic metres.

Remark: New traffic rate impact on PBA profit margin is significantly much higher than Ranhill

Posted by hng33 > 22 hours ago | Report Abuse

On average, PBA absolute increament RM in water traffic hike is more than double than RANHILL

Posted by hng33 > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse

Under new traffic rate, PBA is expect to reduce subsidy fro. RM 116m pa to RM 78m pa for those use 20 per cubic metre and below a month

On the other hand, PBA is expect to boost up revenue and profit for those use water more than 20 cubic meter by additional RM 86m pa.

Remark: average cost production per cubic meter is around 86 per cubic meter. Therefore, increase traffic to RM 1.17 ( 20 - 35 cubic meter) and RM RM 2.07 ( more than 35 cubic meter) are all direct translate into profit margin for PBA. On the other hand, the first 20 cubic meter traffic rate at 62 per cubic meter continue enjoy subsidy from PBA as traffic is still lower than cost production. However, these subsidy still can reduce from RM 116m to RM 78m.

I short, through new water traffic rate, PBA overall net impact is decrease subsidy expenditure from RM 116 pa to RM 78, saving RM 38m pa for those first 20 cubic meter. Increase profit margin to collect additional RM 86m pa for those above 20 cubic meter.

The overall impact are saving RM 38m subsidy + increase profit RM 86m =RM 124m pa or EPS = 40 sen