* Brent almost back to Nov levels before first Omicron reports OPEC+ decision reflects easing concern of oil surplus * U.S. State Department says Iran talks show modest progress * POLL-U.S. crude stockpiles seen lower for sixth straight week * Coming Up: Weekly API inventory data due at 2130 GMT
Jan 4 (Reuters) - Global benchmark Brent crudejumped on Tuesday to $80 a barrel, its highest since November, as OPEC+ agreed to stick with its planned increase for February based on indications that the Omicron coronavirus variant would have only a mild impact on demand.
Brent futures settled up $1.02, or 1.3%, at $80 a barrel, almost back to the level they were at on Nov. 26 when reports of the new variant first appeared, sparking a more than 10% decline in prices on that day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $76.99.
"The oil market is bullish today as a result of optimism sourced from today's monthly OPEC+ meeting, which is helping oil prices trade higher," said Rystad Energy's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen. OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed to stick to its planned increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil output in February. Its decision reflects easing concerns over a big surplus in the first quarter, as well as a wish to provide consistent guidance to the market. Crude stockpiles in the United States, the world's top consumer, were forecast to have dropped for a sixth consecutive week, analysts polled by Reuters estimated ahead of weekly industry data due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT), followed by the government's report on Wednesday. The White House welcomed the decision by OPEC+ to continue increases in production which will help facilitate economic recovery, a spokesperson said. "It appears that the market is making the bet that Omicron is the beginning of the end of COVID-19," said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at United ICAP. In Britain, people being hospitalised with COVID-19 were generally showing less severe symptoms than previously. While in France, the finance minister said some sectors were being disrupted by the surge of the fast-spreading Omicron variant, but there was no risk of it "paralysing" the economy and stuck to a forecast of 4% GDP growth in 2022. Global manufacturing activity remained strong in December, suggesting Omicron's impact on output had been subdued. However, analysts warned OPEC+ may have to change tack if tension between the West and Russia over Ukraine flares up and hits fuel supplies, or if Iran's nuclear talks with major powers make progress, which would lead to an end to oil sanctions on Tehran. "We think these two events represent major wildcards that could quickly alter the price trajectory and test OPEC's rapid response mechanism," RBC analysts said in a note. The U.S. State Department said talks with Iran have shown modest progress and that United States hopes to build on that this week. Libyan output is likely to be about 500,000-600,000 bpd lower in the coming weeks, more than offseting the planned monthly increase in OPEC+ production, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics Caroline Bain said.
Libya's state oil firm said on Saturday oil output would be reduced by 200,000 bpd for a week due to maintenance on a main pipeline, adding to disruptions two weeks ago after militia blocked operations at the Sharara and Wafa oilfields. However, Bain said Capital Economics remained of the view that as OPEC+ continues to raise production in the coming months and demand growth normalises, oil prices will come under downward pressure. Capital Economics' year end-2022 forecast for Brent crude is just $60 per barrel.
NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, extending their new year's rally, on escalating unrest in OPEC+ oil producer Kazakhstan and supply outages in Libya. Brent crude futures rose $1.19 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $81.99 a barrel, after hitting their highest since late November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.61, or 2.1%, to $79.46. The contract touched a session high of $80.24.
Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan to help quell a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state. There were no indications that oil production in Kazakhstan has been affected so far. The country produces about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile in Libya, oil output was at 729,000 barrels per day, the National Oil Corp said, down from a high of more than 1.3 million bpd last year, owing to maintenance and oilfield shutdowns. Global benchmark Brent's six-month backwardation stood at about $4 a barrel, its widest since late November. Backwardation is a market structure where current prices trade at a premium to future prices and is usually a sign of a bullish market. Prices have rallied since the start of the year despite OPEC+ sticking to an agreed output target rise and a surge in U.S. fuel stockpiles. "OPEC production, while it did increase, disappointed the market - it is not going to be enough to keep up with demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. OPEC+, a group that includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, agreed on Tuesday to add another 400,000 bpd of supply in February, as it has done each month since August as it gradually relaxes 2020's cuts as demand recovers from the pandemic. However, the increase in OPEC's output in December has again undershot the rise planned under the OPEC+ deal, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, highlighting capacity constraints. JP Morgan forecast Brent to average at $88 a barrel in 2022, up from $70 last year. "Our reference case now assumes the alliance will fully phase out the remaining 2.96 million bpd of oil production cuts by September 2022," the bank's analysts said in a note. Government data on Wednesday showed that U.S. gasoline inventories surged by more than 10 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly build since April 2020, as supplies backed up at refineries because of reduced fuel demand. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's top consumer, have fallen for six consecutive weeks by the end of the year to 417.9 million barrels, their lowest since September, the data showed. U.S. crude futures suggest supplies will remain tight early in the new year. A barrel of oil for delivery in June is selling at a $4.10 premium to a barrel for delivery in December, the highest since Nov. 2, a signal of near-term rising demand. Meanwhile, the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, cut the official selling price for all grades of crude it sells to Asia in February by at least $1 a barrel, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bigman888
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Posted by bigman888 > 2021-10-24 11:23 | Report Abuse
the oil price rally will last until next year...but this counter seems no hope