13 Oct 2022 At 86c now, the PE based on forecasted FYE 2023 earnings is still above the industrial peer average of 17x need to come down to 70cs
14 Oct 2022 Sell down now, either expiry of contra period or margin calls.......always be guided by fundamentals. Herd mentality; chasing operators' manipulative moves will lead to disaster. No one stock leaps 100% over a short duration. LET THE BUYER BEWARE
15 October 2022 Dow (403.89) , Nasdaq 100 (341.52)
The Dow closed lower, driven by a wreck in tech following a jump in Treasury yields after data pointing to growing expectations for higher for longer inflation stoked investor jitters further about Federal Reserve rate hikes.
After the announcement of CNERGEN's FY 2022 Q2 results, the company's stock price was close to the daily limit; in addition to the company's good performance, they also gave relatively positive growth expectations, so they are interested in the company. Investors, you can refer to what we shared today before making a decision.
Until 30.06.2022, the company has won a total of RM 186.1 Million of orders; of which about RM 113.5 Million has been included in the turnover in FY 2022 6M, and the company currently has RM 72.6 Million of orders that have not been included in the business Among them, RM 61.2 Million will be settled in FY 2022 2HF, which means that the company's minimum turnover in FYE 2022F will have a minimum turnover of RM 174.7 Million.
The company's product delivery in FYE 2022F will be relatively strong, but it may be more "normalized" in FYE 2023F, that is, the turnover in a single quarter in Q1 and Q2 may return to around RM 40.0 Million to RM 50.0 Million.
In addition to the company's flagship EMS production line and equipment, the company will also set up its own Smart Factory in the future (refer to our previous #WD Lights Out concept) products; the company also announced the acquisition of new land last week, and it is expected that Partial production will begin in 2023 1H, and the net profit margin of these products is also expected to be above 12.0% to 14.0%.
Judging from the situation in Southeast Asia, in addition to being an important development area for EMS, LIDA used in autonomous vehicles is also expected to be produced in this region, so CNERGEN is also expected to benefit from it. However, the company's revenue still needs to look at the CAPEX cycle in the market. At present, the cycle has not experienced a slowdown (2023 is expected to slow down), so the company should be relatively strong in the next two quarters,
This stock had been steadily moving from 46c to 1.06; and now back to 80ct. It has literally frontloaded most of its 2023 earnings at these prices. Smarties hv pushed off the stock and left with a nice gain in hand. Currently its worth only 66 to 70c only, even after the 3rd q announcement 17 Nov
***With rising interest rates spurring an abrupt end to the leadership of Big Tech, the largest technology companies are wielding less and less power over broader indexes, as former high-fliers like Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. crash anew in the latest wave of selling. Reversing the extremes of the cheap-money years, the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 hit the lowest versus an equal-weighted version of the benchmark since 2019.
Actually most of the recent IPO launched companies are less affected by the politics, this stock is stable because the earning is still relatively good but recent QR not that really good.
Today the TA is good hopefully it will sustain and let's see tomorrow.
MYR1.09 FV based on 22x FY23F P/E. Cnergenz is riding on its proven track record, expansion of multinational corporation (MNC) manufacturers and growing surface mount technology (SMT) demand by electronics manufacturing services (EMS) players. This, on top of it being in a sweet spot of the US-China trade war and its effort in providing new innovative solutions in the next two financial years, lead us to project a 3-year earnings CAGR of 37.9% for the stock. We see it as a proxy to MNC manufacturers with its expansion plans.
Represents the top equipment brands. The group has established long business relationships with about 54 suppliers comprising reputable international brand owners and manufacturers of machinery, equipment and tools of particular SMT processes used for the electronics and semiconductor (E&S) industries. Its proven track record in meeting the stringent selection and quality requirements set by its customers makes its solutions greatly in demand by many EMS providers.
Beneficiary of US-China trade diversion. Vietnam has proven to be the biggest winner of the US-China trade war in the past years, followed by Malaysia and other South-East Asian countries (US Census Bureau, China General Administration of Customs and Nomura). Cnergenz should benefit from the trade diversion as its distribution territories including Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia – Penang, Klang Valley and Kedah. The EMS market is expected to witness significant growth from the rising demand for electric vehicles – management is targeting it next from its new solutions.
Moving up the manufacturing value chain. Management is in talks with a few new distributors (for different manufacturing process) to secure distributorship rights in FY23. In FY24, the group’s new facility is expected to commence operations, expanding its smart factory solutions business to encompass workshop and assembly area to design and develop its proprietary range of smart factory solutions. There will be no territory restrictions for its proprietary range of smart factory solutions. It also supports the nation’s sustainability goal of Industry 4.0 in manufacturing lines. The wider range of solutions will bode well for it in the years to come.
Earnings forecasts and valuation. Coupled with the expansion of MNC manufacturers and expected pipelines of new solutions offerings, we are projecting an earnings CAGR of 37.9% from FY22F-24F. We like Cnergenz for its diversified customer base and as a representative of top brands. We ascribe a 22x P/E on its FY23F earnings, which is c.25% discount from its peer average 2-year forward P/E due to its lower profit margin and market capitalisation.
Key risks. Loss of skilled engineers and technicians, failure to secure new projects and risk of termination, non-renewal and exclusivity of distributorships.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
xuxu
5,810 posts
Posted by xuxu > 2022-10-14 10:47 | Report Abuse
the goreng heat is gone~