Weekly Economic Review

Last week’s highlights

• Ministry of Finance Malaysia (MOF) had released its 69th LAKSANA report
• Malaysia’s inbound tourists in 2020 plummeted by 83.4% yoy
• The FBM KLCI fell by 1.06% or 16.45 points for the week to settle at 1,532.06 points
• IHS Markit Flash US Manufacturing posted 60.5 in September
• Japan's headline inflation dropped by 0.4% yoy in August
• Singapore's headline CPI increased 2.4% yoy in August 2021
• Fed, PBoC, BOE, BOJ, SNB, BI, and BSP kept the policy rate unchanged, while BCB hike and CBRT cut
• Week Ahead Economic Review

MALAYSIA ECONOMY

According to the Ministry of Finance Malaysia (MOF) 69th LAKSANA report, under BNM-SMEs soft loans funds, a total of RM12.43bn was approved to the 26,154 applicants. For the SME digitalisation grant, a total of RM96.46m has been disbursed to 34,761 SMEs. Under technical and digital adoption for SMEs and mid-tier companies (MTC) programs, a total of RM83.1m has been distributed to 13,884 recipients. Under the Danajamin Prihatin Guarantee Scheme (DPGS), the total guarantees approved were RM1.715bn for 52 companies. As of 31 August 2021, a total of 47,672 persons have secured job placements through the MySTEP programme.

Leading Index (LI) for July 2021 slipped to -4.0% yoy following a 0.5% rise in June. The contraction in LI was mainly due to a higher base effect and reduction in the number of new companies registered. The LI declined by 0.6% mom, moderating the declining trend of a 2.8% drop in June, primarily caused by weaker real imports of other basic precious & other non-ferrous metals. The Coincident Index (CI), which measures the overall current economic performance, fell slower to 2.5% mom than a 6.3% drop in June. Meanwhile, the CI registered a negative growth of 5.2% yoy, extending a 3.1% contraction in June.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic had wrecked the domestic tourism sector in 2020, falling into the worst ever recorded in the country's tourism history. The inbound tourists in 2020 plummeted by 83.4% to 4.3 million people compared to 26.1 million people in the previous year. Gross Value Added of Tourism Industries (GVATI), which contributing 14.1% to GDP (2019: 15.9%), dropped by 17.1% to RM199.4 bn in 2020. All industries have decreased doubledigit growth, mainly in travel agencies (-66.7%) and accommodation services (- 54.6%). Internal tourism consumption in 2020 dipped by 71.2% compared to a growth of 6.8% in 2019. A total of RM52.4bn of internal tourism consumption was generated in 2020 (2019: RM182.1bn). Inbound tourism expenditure was hit hard by recording a plunge of 84.6%. Domestic tourism dropped by 58.3% in 2020, contributing 73.8% to internal tourism consumption during the year. Sector employment fell by 2.9% yoy to 3.5 million employed, which contributed 23.1% to the total employment in Malaysia. Closing borders, prolonged lockdowns, and broad income deterioration had caused the downfall for the industry. Malaysia's tourism sector may take some time to revive, as reopening is gradual, and inbound tourism is fairly limited with stringent SOP.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 27 Sept 2021