nikicheong

It appears that there are the following one-off to consider. The Q3 results are actually much better once you factor these in.

1) Net allowance for impairment: RM4.5m
2) Reduction in residual vessels (fully owned): RM25.9m
3) Reduction in residual vessels (JV and associates): RM45.1m

2 weeks ago

nikicheong

Net Profit to Shareholders: RMRM149.7m

Adjustments:
Net allowance for impairment: +RM4.5m
Reduction in residual vessels (fully owned): +RM25.9m
Reduction in residual vessels (JV and associates): +RM45.1m
Unrealised FX Gain: -RM8.2m

Adjusted Core Net Profit: RM217.0m

2 weeks ago

kahfui1221

Announcing Bumi Armada Bhd's third quarter financial performance, CEO Gary Christensen says the group will continue to pursue new projects amid the higher energy prices.

"It was pleasing that during the quarter we successfully conducted the planned process shutdowns of two of our vessels in a safe and efficient manner and restarted ahead of plan.

2 weeks ago

kahfui1221

It said cash generation remained strong with net operating cash flow of RM512.2mil, which enabled it to repay almost US$74.8mil of debt during the quarter.

It added that the future firm orderbook as at end-September 2022 stood at RM13bil with additional optional extensions of up to RM9.9bil.

Year-to-date, Bumi Armada recorded a net profit of RM521.73mil, up from RM456.07mil in 3Q21 while revenue rose to RM1.8bil from RM1.65bil.

2 weeks ago

ITreeinvestor

Dun forget that no more Kraken & TGT shutdown for maintenance in next quarters.

Adjustments:
Net allowance for impairment: +RM4.5m
Reduction in residual vessels (fully owned): +RM25.9m
Reduction in residual vessels (JV and associates): +RM45.1m
Unrealised FX Gain: -RM8.2m

Adjusted Core Net Profit: RM217.0m

2 weeks ago

zonefinder

Lets see how the market will react towards this set of solid results. Of importance is the continual reduction in net borrowings and future earning potential.

2 weeks ago

hng33

sold armanda at 43.5sen, took profit first

2 weeks ago

hng33

sold off balance armanda at 44sen

2 weeks ago

nikicheong

Guys, please share the PDFs of research reports as you have them.

2 weeks ago

Macgyver111

Malaysian offshore vessel provider Bumi Armada has selected OPEX artificial intelligence technology to reduce carbon emissions on an FPSO facility located in the North Sea.


Source: Bumi Armada
OPEX Group’s emissions.AI software will be deployed on the Armada Kraken FPSO facility, which serves the EnQuest-operated Kraken Field located in the northern North Sea.

According to Bumi Armada, the technology will deliver real-time emissions data, insights and intelligence, identifying key opportunities to reduce emissions from the facility, and will also support with implementing solutions and cost-saving strategies.

“While we have already successfully achieved continued emissions reduction, we are dedicated to evolving our operations globally to ensure we integrate sustainability into daily operations,” said David Clark, SVP of Operations from Bumi Armada.

“Adopting this technology is a big step towards utilising the power of data to better understand how our plant is being operated and where there are opportunities for improvement across our projects and operations.”

The Armada Kraken FPSO is a converted Suezmax tanker and has a nameplate production capacity of 80,000b per day, a storage capacity of more than 600,000 barrels, and is able to handle 460,000 barrels per day of fluids.

2 weeks ago

Macgyver111

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 25): CGS-CIMB Securities has maintained its “Add” rating on Bumi Armada Bhd (BAB) at 44 sen with a higher target price (TP) of 57 sen and said BAB’s 9M22 core net profit outperformed at 92% of house previous FY22F forecast (79% of consensus), due to pre-FEED profits in 2Q22 and 3Q22.

In a note on Thursday (Nov 24), the research house said that next year, BAB can also look forward to being potentially awarded TotalEnergies’ FPSO Cameia EPCC project, as BAB is in pole position to win the contract, citing industry newspaper Upstream.

CGS-CIMB said this is a potential rerating catalyst.

“BAB will not own the asset, hence the risk of a rights issue is minimal, in our view.

“Downside risks include a potential rights issue should BAB win a separate large FPSO project on a build-own-lease basis.

“Reiterate Add with higher SOP-based TP of 57 sen by rolling forward to end-CY23F, partially offset by a higher risk-free rate of 4.5% (from 4% previously),” it said.

2 weeks ago

ITreeinvestor

Y23Q1 another additional profit coming in.

30%-owned Armada Sterling V (the remaining 70% owned by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) has sailed away in early November this year and is expected to arrive in the east coast of Kakinada, offshore India by the end of 2022. This paves the path for maiden earnings contributions from the vessel from 1QFY23 onwards.

2 weeks ago

nikicheong

Anybody got the updates from UOB, RHB etc?

2 weeks ago

nikicheong

CIMB: https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=3cd671d1-499e-403c-94d2-9d385eec5d0e

2 weeks ago

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

Reduction in residual vessels (fully owned): RM25.9m


Reduction in residual vessels (JV and associates): RM45.1m

Where do these come from?

After so many rounds...

Anymore in the closet?



Making people uneasy... reasons for low PE

2 weeks ago

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

Tot market conditions have since improved a lot?

High inflation not pushing up cost of new vessels?

2 weeks ago

Robert Waters

From RHB

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/view-file/hash/9176018973516544637f9b1f23d9f?NO_CACHE=fbdbc7150cfe2ecbc71c62ed0e9c7182

25 November 2022 Energy & Petrochemicals | Offshore & Marine
Bumi Armada (BAB MK) Another Solid Quarter; Keep BUY
Buy (Maintained)
Target Price (Return): MYR0.61 (+39%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR0.44 (USD579m) ESG score: 2.90 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 4.81m/1.05m
Analyst Sean Lim, CFA +603 9280 8867 sean.lim@rhbgroup.com
Share Performance (%)

Keep BUY, with new SOP-based MYR0.61 TP from MYR0.59, 39% upside. Bumi Armada’s 9M22 results surpassed our expectations, with core profit surging 16% YoY on better Kraken availability, lower depreciation and finance costs. The group is still actively bidding for new
projects while Armada Sterling V has sailed away from the yard. BAB remains our sector Top Pick for its undemanding valuation (3.5x FY23F P/E) and strengthening balance sheet, led by stable FPSO operations and continuous asset monetisation.

1 week ago

success2628

Follow hng33 to sold armanda at 45.5sen, also took profit first…

1 week ago

success2628

Will follow hng33 to buy back Armada shares later…

1 week ago

zonefinder

Counter is gathering strength...

1 week ago

MoneyMakers

Ding3 46.5sen (Jun high) unlocked

Nxt target 50sen..never doubt Armada/oil this yr end

1 week ago

zonefinder

Might break 50sen today...

1 week ago

nikicheong

Wonder if the movement today is:

1) Speculative play - trading driven
2) Fund accumulation - value driven
3) Insider play - inside information driven

1 week ago

zonefinder

Its fundamentals point towards it being grossly undervalued.

1 week ago

MM78

Time for market to realize Armada is a steal at such low PE with strong cash flow cutting down its debt so swiftly under its new leadership?

1 week ago

MM78

Any risk of Ananda may take it private one day if the big sharks continue to press it down to accumulate for a long time ?

1 week ago

zonefinder

Waiting for the TotalENergies FPSO catalyst to bring this over 60sen

1 week ago

Macgyver111

Despite concerns over China's zero-COVID policy and global recession fears, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to hit $110 a barrel next year.

Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at the investment bank, said Tuesday that the oil outlook in 2023 remains "very positive."

He told CNBC in an interview that Goldman plans to "stick to our guns" with a forecast for $110-a-barrel Brent. That represents more than 30% upside from the current level of around $83.

Still, there's "a lot of uncertainty" ahead, Currie noted, including the potential for lower demand in China, recession fears, and the European Union's embargo next week on seaborne imports of Russian oil.

"Demand is probably heading south again in China given what's going on," he said. "I think the key point with China right now is the risk that you get a forced reopening. That means it'll be self-imposed lockdowns where people don't want to get on trains, don't want to get to work and demand goes further south."

Meanwhile, OPEC+ will convene in Vienna on Sunday, and Currie said there is a high probability that the cartel will further reduce its oil production quotas, putting upward pressure on prices.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-2023-goldman-sachs-crude-110-opec-china-2022-11

1 week ago

TeamRocket

miss the boat, nvm, wait for nxt round at 0.35, selling at 0.55

1 week ago

Macgyver11

Boleh dapat 0.60c kah next week?

1 week ago

HuatlaiOnglai

Solid fundamental with potential securing new projects. Anything higher is possible.

1 week ago

goldmans

Collect now n keep until dis 2022.......2023 boommmmmnnnn....

5 days ago

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

If still in doubt.....

Take Armada winning new FPSO contract as it has built up its financial muscles that can impress

Vote of confidence from demanding 3rd parties

5 days ago

Zkhan86

@nikicheong..you didnt share your debt table and time series analysis for this quarter..that has helped alot previously to observe the debt pattern.. hope you can share for this quarter as well..Thanks!!

5 days ago

Macgyver11

Very long time never see comments from Mabel the cat...very busy ka dia di blog sapura...kikiki

5 days ago

Macgyver11

Oil prices may hit $110 a barrel in 2023 but Russia risk could 'turbocharge' them even higher, BofA says
Brian Evans
Oil tanker
Suriyapong Thongsawang
Brent crude could climb as high as $110 per barrel in 2023, according to Bank of America.
Analysts wrote in a note on Thursday that a price cap on Russian oil remains an upside risk.
The note outlines other key risks, including OPEC members like Iraq and Libya.
Brent crude oil could climb as high as $110 per barrel in 2023, though there are several risks that could add more more pressure on prices, according to a note from Bank of America.

Prices for the international oil benchmark averaged around $101 per barrel this year, and BofA sees more of the same next year, predicting an average of $100 and a peak of $110 at the height of the driving season. Brent will generally be lower in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the rest of the year, analysts added.

Brent currently trades around $86 per barrel, meaning the high end of BofA's forecast represents an increase of 28%.

But BofA analysts also noted several upside risk factors for oil prices next year, namely a price cap on Russian crude.

On Friday, European Union officials agreed to set the cap at $60 per barrel. That will take effect on Monday, alongside a ban on Russian oil imports into the EU and related services for cargoes worldwide. Russia has said it won't sell oil to any price-cap participants, and analysts have estimated its oil exports could fall by up to 1 million barrels per day.

"At present, we embed Russian total oil production levels of 10 mn b/d in our assumptions for 2023 compared to the 9.59 mn b/d figure provided by the IEA. Any meaningful downward deviation from these figures could turbocharge oil prices higher," the BofA note said.

Russia presents the largest upside risk to oil prices, but there are other risks lurking as well, analysts said. In particular, further supply disruptions from OPEC producers like Libya, Nigeria, Iraq or others could "put the oil market on notice."

A shortfall of 1 million barrels a day or more could come from a number of producers, especially from OPEC, with BofA estimating that every unexpected swing in supply or demand of 1 million barrels tends to move Brent oil prices by $20-$25 per barrel.

5 days ago

MoneyMakers

Welcome to Dec 5 - EU oil ban!!!

Congrats to all Armada believers..keep the faith

P/s: ding3 50sen range unlocked..final resistance @ 52sen

5 days ago

KimSua

Oil price lowest this year. Below 80 for brent and 75 for WTI. US will starts release 15 million in Dec from their strategic reserves. The plan is to refill the reserves around USD 70 price for WTI. This was the midterm reelection plan for democrats to ease the inflation. Since winning midterm, still control the senate , democrats expected worst results. Moving forward they have to ensure the reserve has to be replenish at a consistent rate in 2023. WTI should go above USD 70. Mixed reaction from oil analyst. I still think it will be bullish in 2023 once China really reopens. Expect some profit taking on BAB , short term.

3 days ago

nikicheong

Feels like the buying to this level is supported by fundamentals (either due to insider information, or due to value plays by local/foreign funds).

2 days ago

value_seeker

I think the upside is big for Armada. Going for bull phase and good return coming soon.

2 days ago

pang72

Oil n gas counter starts crashing like Brent oil toward usd60 because Russia oil cap.

2 days ago

pang72

No more upside...
Everything is done...

2 days ago

Bon888

10 consecutive profit record and all positive cash flow. Share price just can't break 0.60. People doesn't care about financial performance ?

2 days ago

MrKhan

The company needs to reintroduce dividends once the gearing ratio is below 1.0..Only then share price will truly reflect the actual value

1 day ago

Macgyver11

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 8): Local oil and gas (O&G) players are expected to benefit from the rise in domestic capital expenditure (capex) by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), said analysts.

Maybank IB Research, citing a 34% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in Petronas' domestic capex, said its top picks in the sector include Yinson Holdings Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd and Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd.

"Meanwhile Bumi Armada Bhd, Velesto Energy Bhd, Wah Seong Corp Bhd and Malaysian Marine & Heavy Engineering [Holdings Bhd] are our small and mid caps 'buy'," it said.

It said Petronas is on track to meet its RM100 billion earnings target for FY2022 after the national oil company posted strong nine-month financial results with core net profit of RM72 billion, up 173% y-o-y.

“We expect oil price to remain elevated, as the winter period approaches and geopolitical risk remains high,” it said, adding that crude oil average estimate for FY2022 is unchanged, at US$100 per barrel (Brent).

“We do not rule out a higher oil price outlook in FY2023 considering the continued tightness in the global supply market, due to the prolonged structural under-investment since 2015,” it added.

Maybank also noted Petronas’ efforts in carbon emissions abatement and scaling up investment allocation on carbon neutral projects.

“With its NZCE 2050 pathway announced on Nov 1, 2022, Petronas has set a near-term target to cap operational emission to 49.5 million tonnes of CO2e by 2024 in Malaysia and achieve 25% absolute emissions reduction groupwide by 2030 (based on 2019’s baseline),” it said.

It said for this, Petronas will allocate 20% of its capex for decarbonisation projects and expansion into cleaner energy solutions over the next five years (2023 to 2026). Petronas targets 50% improvement in cashflows from operations by 2025 and 30% growth in revenue from new non-traditional business by 2030.

1 day ago

KimSua

Be patient my friend, Oil will not stay long at this price, remember US oil reserves will buy back nearly 200 million barrels from the current strategic reserves of <400million barrel. Normal reserves is >600million. That's their plan to buy back around 70usd/barrel WTI. It has reach its bottom, bare in mind China is buying at a huge discount >60 USD/B brent and Energy is the key margin for manufacturing of goods. With cheaper energy you control the global manufacturing economics. It will not stay at this low level for long. FSPO will still be profitable for many years to come.

1 day ago

Bon888

For thus holding since many years, don't give up for just 20% or 30% profit. We should target for a solid one fold or two folds of profit when the market price reflected the actual value of Armada. Current price is undervalued.

1 day ago

Macgyver11

(Kuala Lumpur, 9th) Given that the current macroeconomic and local political situation has reached a turning point, analysts believe that investors now have more reasons to be less pessimistic, suggesting that they continue to deploy investment strategies for next year and absorb valuable small capital stocks .

RHB Research analysts pointed out that the recent local political uncertainties have settled, the inflation rate and the interest rate hike cycle may have peaked, and China's further unblocking has revived the Malaysian stock market. The FTSE KLCI has rebounded 6.7 percent from its October lows, with the FTSE MidCap 70 (FMB70) and FTSE SmallCap (FBM SCap) also recovering some losses.

So far this year, the KLCI has fallen 6.4%; the FTSE Small Cap Index has fallen 3.8%, supported by chemical, consumer and oil and gas stocks, outperforming the market. However, the FTSE 70 MidCap index fell 9.2 percent, dragged down by technology and glove stocks.

The analyst said that while the FTSE 70 MidCap and FTSE SmallCap indices are currently trading below their five-year averages at 13.5 times and 10.7 times respectively, among the stocks the bank looks at, the small and mid caps are tied with the large caps. The valuation gap narrowed to 1.2 times, showing that investors have a strong appetite for small and medium-sized stocks with unique conditions and growth.

18 hours ago

Macgyver11

20 legacy stocks outperformed the market
In the current environment, investors generally prefer large-cap stocks. However, the performance of the 20 small-cap bead stocks researched by RHB still outperformed the market.

In May of this year, since the bank launched the "20 Small Capital Beads of 2022", although the external market is uncertain and the market is extremely volatile, the value-weighted return of the 20 small capital beads exceeds 20%. During the same period, the FTSE 70 The MidCap index fell 2.7 percent and the FTSE SmallCap index lost 5.9 percent.

Among the 20 small-cap legacy stocks, losers and winners were divided equally; the winners were oil and gas, healthcare, consumer and industrial stocks.

Analysts also pointed out that what is more interesting is that the MSCI Malaysia Small Cap Index is at the same level as the MSCI benchmark index. In Japan, Singapore and Thailand, the MSCI Small and Mid Cap Index has also seen a similar upward trend in valuation.

With that in mind, analysts say investors should continue to pick stocks for the next year on the alpha factor, a measure of investment risk, deployed based on current below-average valuations.

“We recommend an evergreen strategy, that is, building a portfolio that is strong over the long term and that returns after incorporating risk.”

Analysts believe that in the quantitative tightening cycle, although the rotation play will continue, and any excessive valuation will attract arbitrage activities, valuable stocks should take center stage.

He added that assuming that U.S. inflationary pressures ease further, allowing the Fed to ease its rate hike cycle, and China gradually unblocks, the market may be more optimistic. It is a positive factor other than local political stability and strong consumption that can support the local economy.

In addition, as the ringgit regained momentum, foreign capital flows into Malaysian stocks resumed.

Optimistic about consumer healthcare, medical logistics, oil and gas
Analysts recommend that investors focus on stocks with solid cash flows and dividends, attractive valuations, and growth in the current environment. Prefer small and mid-cap stocks in consumer staples, discretionary, healthcare, logistics, and oil and gas.

The bank's top picks include Heineken Malaysia (HEIM, 3255, Main Board Consumer Products Services Group), CTOS Digital (CTOS, 5301, Main Board Technology Group) and Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy Group).

Investors can focus on stocks with local market-based businesses, unique businesses, catalysts, and low valuations but constant demand.

He explained that loose fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support private consumption and non-essential consumption. With capital spending and high demand for floating production storage and offloading vessels (FPSO), the upcycle in the oil and gas sector is expected to continue, which in turn translates into a positive profit cycle.

In addition, in the field of technology, selective buying of stocks that are not sensitive to demand based on valuation is expected to perform well. The logistics sector will also benefit from rising freight rates, increased third-party demand, and government tax incentives.

18 hours ago

Macgyver11

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-may-cut-oil-output-134709319.html

Putin says will cut oil production and won't sell oil to G7 countries that imposed price cap over Russia. This could easily drive the oil price to upwards...let see

17 hours ago