Distributive trade sales contracted for the third straight month, but at a slower pace in December (-0.3% YoY; Nov: - 1.2%) as some of the COVID-19 restrictions have been loosened in December
MoM (4.6%; Nov: -0.1%): best monthly gain in five months as demand recovery gains some momentum following the government’s decision to lift the Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) on 7th Dec.
4Q20 (-0.7%; 3Q20: -1.8%): contraction moderated, attributable to higher December sales (RM115.5b; November: 110.4b) which recorded second-highest ever.
2020 (-5.9%; 2019: 5.9%): biggest annual contraction on record.
The improved performance was broad-based, driven by the sales of motor vehicles, retail and wholesale trade
Motor vehicles (7.8%; Nov: 1.2%): rose to a three-month high on better growth in sales of motor vehicles (15.3%; Nov: 7.1%) due to the anticipated end to the SST exemption, which was eventually extended until June 2021.
Wholesale trade (-0.6%; Nov: -0.7%): marked a marginally softer fall due to a lesser decline in sales of other specialised items (-6.4%; Nov: -6.8%).
Retail trade (-2.0%; Nov: -2.3%): smaller drop on narrowed contraction in sales of household (-4.1%; Nov: -4.4%) equipment.
Weaker retail trade performance across advanced and developing economies
SG: contraction worsened to -3.6% (Nov: -1.7%), a two-month low due to lower sales in cosmetics, toiletries and medical goods.
CN: slowed (Dec: 4.6%; Nov: 5.0%) for the first time since steadily recovering from March’s meltdown, partly due to a slow recovery in the catering and restaurant industries.
2021 distributive trade sales will likely rebound to 8.0-10.0% due to the expectation of a return to partial normalcy in 2H21, unleashing some pent-up demand
The implementation of MCO 2.0 from 13th Jan until 18th Feb 2021 is expected to drag retail sales down in the 1Q21. However, Malaysia’s COVID-19 immunisation programme which is expected to begin at the end of February may unleash some pent-up demand and kick start the economy as we gradually return to a semblance of normalcy in the 2H21.
Against this backdrop, private consumption is expected to weaken to -1.1% in 1Q21 (4Q20F: 1.5%) before rebounding to 9.9% in the 2Q21. Consequently, 2021 GDP growth is expected to settle at 3.9% (2020F: -5.3%).
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 5201 views | 5 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....