● Exports continued its third straight month of expansion (12.2%; consensus: 13.6%; Dec: 14.6%) albeit at a slower pace

- MoM: fell sharply (-7.5%; Dec: 8.4%) to USD15.3b, the first contraction since August last year.

● Slower exports attributable to lower shipment of non-oil & gas-based products, but partiallymitigatedby a growth rebound in oil & gas

- Non-O&G (12.5%; Dec: 16.7%): growth moderated mainly due to slower exports of manufacturing (13.9%; Dec: 18.9%) and agriculture (14.2%; Dec: 17.4%), but partially capped by a sharp expansion in mining (16.9%; Dec: 4.5%) products. By destination, exports of non-O&G to top trading partners charted a continued expansion, led by China (44.5%; Dec: 43.4%) and Japan (9.6%; Dec: 7.3%). However, export to the US moderated sharply (2.7%; Dec: 11.9%).

- O&G (8.3%; Dec: -10.1%): rebounded sharply and for the first time in two years mainly due to a sharp rebound in O&G mining (19.3%; Dec: -5.7%) products.

● Importsfell sharply in January(-6.5%; consensus:-2.8%;Dec:-0.5%)on weaknon-O&G (-4.0%; Dec:4.7%) andO&G product (- 21.9%; Dec: -30.5%)

- By segment, broad based slowdown was observed led by raw materials (-6.1%; Dec: -2.0%), followed by capital goods (-10.7%; Dec: 3.2%) and consumer goods (-2.9%; Dec: 3.9%).

- MoM: fell sharply (-7.6%; Dec: 14.0%) to USD13.3b.

● Trade surplus narrowed slightly to USD2.0b(consensus: USD1.7b; Dec: USD2.1b) and remaining in a surplus for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, total trade expanded for the second straight month (2.7% YoY; Dec: 7.1%) albeit at a slower pace.

● 2021 exports forecast retain at 3.4% (2020: -2.6%)

- Exports are expected to rebound moderately this year on continued economic recovery expectation and a wider vaccine rollout among key trading partners, as well as higher commodity prices

Source: Kenanga Research - 16 Feb 2021