Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR moved in a range of 4.028-4.043 last week before closing lower at 4.042 on Friday. The local note briefly traded below the 4.030 level, supported by the easing of Movement Control Order and firmer Brent crude oil price which rose to a 13-month high of USD64.3/bbl. However, profit taking activities and a reversal in the Brent crude oil price has chipped away ringgit earlier gains.

▪ MYR is expected to strengthen this week, due to increasing risk appetite on optimism over Malaysia's vaccination drive, global economic recovery, a weaker USD and a relatively stable crude oil prices. However, any major speed bumps in Malaysia's first vaccine rollout effort may weigh on the local note.

Technical Analysis

▪ According to our 5-day EMA indicator, MYR is projected to reverse its weakness spell last week with a slight gain of 0.05% against the greenback to 4.040 this week.

▪ This suggest a bearish bias for the USDMYR pair this week. From here, the weak USD trend could push the pair towards the (S2) 4.023 level if the (S1) 4.033 support level is breached. Conversely, a rally towards the (R1) 4.047 level will invalidate the bearish pattern.

Source: Kenanga Research - 22 Feb 2021