Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR rose against most major currencies last week as Brent crude oil price breached USD69.0/bbl for the first time since Sep 2019 due to the OPEC+ supply cut decision. However, the local note weakened to its lowest in over three months against the USD as the greenback was lifted by an increase in US bond yields due to Powell's dovish comments.

▪ Despite elevated Brent crude oil price, MYR is seen to remain under pressure if the 10-year Treasury yield continue to rise beyond 1.5% given that US treasury play a more dominant role in price determination compared to oil prices. However, encouraging domestic economic data and improving local COVID-19 situation may help limit MYR depreciation.

Technical Analysis

▪ Despite USD buying pressure, EMA technical indicator signals a reversal in the USDMYR trend, with the ringgit expected to appreciate against the greenback by 0.35% to 4.060 this week.

▪ The pair faces an initial support at (S1) 4.059, followed by (S2) 4.043. Conversely, a sustained rise above the (R1) 4.083 level may suggest an extension of the bullish USD trend.

Source: Kenanga Research - 8 Mar 2021