• Exports registereditsfourthstraightmonth of expansion in February (8.6%; consensus: 8.7%; Jan: 12.2%) albeit at a slower pace
  • MoM: fell marginally (-0.2%; Jan: -7.5%) to USD15.27b.
• The slower exportsgrowth was dueto lower shipment of non-oil & gas and oil &gas-basedproducts, but exportstoChina and the US remain strong
  • Non-O&G (8.7%; Jan: 12.4%): fourth straight month of expansion albeit at a slower rate due to slower exports of manufacturing (7.0%; Jan: 13.9%), mining (7.5%; Jan: 16.9%) and agriculture (2.9%; Jan: 14.8%) products. By destination, exports of non-O&G to top trading partners charted a continued expansion, led by China (57.3%; Jan: 44.4%), followed by the US (14.0%; Jan: 2.6%). Meanwhile, export to Japan moderated (5.3%; Jan: 9.6%).
  • O&G (6.9%; Jan: 8.3%): second month of expansion albeit at a slower pace attributable to growth in O&G mining (10.2%; Jan: 19.3%) products and a smaller contraction in O&G manufacturing (-9.8%; Jan: -33.4%) products.
• Imports rebounded for the first time in 20 months (14.9%; consensus: 12.6%; Jan:-6.6%), a 28-month high on higher non-O&G (22.0%; Jan: -4.1%)
  • By segment, the uptick was attributable to a broad-based improvement led by capital goods (17.7%; Jan: -11.6%), followed by raw materials (11.5%; Jan: -6.2%) and consumer goods (43.6%; Jan: -1.5%).
  • MoM: fell marginally (-0.5%; Jan: -7.7%) to USD13.26b.
• Trade surplus expandedslightly to USD2.01b (consensus: USD2.21b; Jan: USD1.96b) and remained in a surplus for the tenth straight month. Meanwhile, total trade rose to a 28-month high (11.4% YoY; Jan: 2.6%).
• 2021 exports forecast retained at 3.4% (2020: -2.6%) with a high probability for further upside
  • The bounce in February's imports as reflect in higher imports of capital goods and raw materials may suggest an economic recovery prospect in the coming months. Likewise, exports are expected to chart a positive growth in line with the expected global economic recovery driven by the progress of COVID-19 vaccination.

Source: Kenanga Research - 16 Mar 2021