Posted by L. C. Chong on August 25, 2014
DIALOG Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1pwwlMP
My View:-
- Fair values:
– Absolute EY% valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide FY14 Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide R4Q Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Buy below 1.64, fair value 2.01 (MOS: 9.5%)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.069) – Buy below 2.01, fair value 2.47 (MOS: 26.3%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.82): 0.051
- Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. At this price, I have around 10% (FY15) – 26% (FY16) MOS.
- Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
- Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
- The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
– Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
- DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
- I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.
Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1717097
At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/dialog-fundamental-analysis-25-aug-2014/
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DIALOGCreated by Tan KW | Aug 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Aug 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Aug 26, 2024
destiney
thanks for sharing,,i hold dialog too..since 2008
2014-08-25 23:51