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Japan PM Kishida's Cabinet approval in free fall over Abe's state funeral, church links

Tan KW
Publish date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022, 02:43 PM
Tan KW
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TOKYO : Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet is in free fall, jeopardising his promised "golden era" of policymaking although his tenure is in no immediate risk of a premature end.

Approval ratings plunged to new lows in a series of opinion surveys over the weekend, suggesting that he has all but failed in his attempts at quelling public discontent over a 1.66 billion yen ($16.4 million) state funeral for the slain former leader Shinzo Abe.

Kishida, who previously acknowledged that his government had not explained itself well enough, sought to stop the rot by convening a televised off-session Diet sitting on Sept 8.

Yet observers said he appeared to have borrowed the playbook of the late Abe in responding to controversy: offering little new and repeating what has already been said, dodging uncomfortable questions, and speaking in parallels of the opposition.

To make matters worse, the eye-popping price tag has been juxtaposed in media with reports of households hurting from inflation and the prospect of imminent tax hikes with Japan's fiscal health the worst among developed countries.

On Sept 8, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) released results of an internal probe of its enduring ties with the controversial Unification Church but these also failed to win over the public.

The church was once regarded as an "anti-social" group in Japan and is seen as a "cult" by some countries abroad.

While it admitted that 179 of its 379 lawmakers had ties with the church, this was followed by a cascade of revelations, such as how some who claimed to have no connections actually had links. This undermined the probe's credibility.

In a poll by the Mainichi newspaper, support plunged seven percentage points from last month to 29 per cent. This is below the 30 per cent that is regarded as a "danger zone", as it historically has meant that the government could face problems in carrying out its political agenda.

And as disapproval climbed by 10 percentage points to 64 per cent, the survey even included a question as to who should be Japan's next PM. Of the 508 responses, digital minister Taro Kono was top with 87 votes.

The poll also found that 62 per cent were against the state funeral, which will be held on Sept 27 at the Nippon Budokan arena and attended by world leaders.

Abe's state funeral is being held 81 days after he died at 67 on July 8.

While he was first seen as a martyr for Japanese democracy because he was gunned down at a campaign rally, it later emerged that the suspect's alleged motives were due to Mr Abe's supposed ties with the Unification Church.

The suspect Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, now under psychiatric evaluation, has blamed the church for bankrupting and breaking up his family. The ensuing scrutiny into the church and its ties with the LDP has corroded support.

Just 12 per cent in the Mainichi poll said they were convinced by Kishida's response to the church controversy.

The newspaper quoted an unnamed government official as saying: "The Unification Church and the state funeral are the only reasons behind the plunge in support. But now, whatever we do, we will be criticised."

The Mainichi poll's results echoed those by other media outlets over the weekend.

In a survey by the All Nippon News Network, approval was down 7.4 percentage points from last month to an all-time low of 36.3 per cent.

Some 54 per cent were against the state funeral, while 65 per cent were against Mr Kishida's handling of the Unification Church issue.

A Kyodo News poll had support plunging 13.9 percentage points from last month to 40.2 per cent. Just two months ago, approval stood at a lofty 63 per cent after the LDP swept to victory in an Upper House election. Eight in 10 felt the LDP's response to its links with the church was insufficient.

In another survey by the Nikkei and TV Tokyo, approval plummeted to a new low of 43 per cent, down 14 percentage points from last month's 57 per cent. Likewise, eight in 10 were unconvinced by the LDP probe into its ties with the Unification Church.

Six in 10 said they were against the state funeral for Abe, while just one in three supported the event.

The spate of surveys followed several others last week that showed similar results.

Support fell 12 percentage points from last month to a new low of 32.3 per cent in a poll by Jiji Press. Approval stood at 40 per cent (down six percentage points) in a poll by public broadcaster NHK and at 41 per cent (down six percentage points) in a poll by the Asahi newspaper.

Kishida's handling of economic issues has also been found wanting in some of the polls.

However, Kishida has the promise of what Japanese media termed as a "golden era" of policymaking after his LDP won handily at the Upper House poll in July. This was because his party leadership will not be challenged until 2024, while no national election must be held until 2025.

Political scientist Mikitaka Masuyama of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies told The Straits Times that he expects Kishida to ride out the controversy.

"The Cabinet approval rating usually declines anyway once the honeymoon period is over," he said. "It's been a heavy hit but I don't think it's an impossible crisis for him to overcome because he has time on his side."

Still, Dr Sota Kato, a research director at The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think tank, sees internal party politicking as weighing on Kishida's calculations.

Abe was an outsized figure within the LDP, having once led the largest faction within the party. Despite his death, the faction has chosen to retain the "Abe" name.

"Kishida's faction is the fourth-largest in the party and he cannot maintain power without support from the other factions," Dr Kato said.

"He may take a view that he should give priority to maintaining party relations as there are no elections for now. But if approval of an administration with a weak foundation within the party continues to decline, it will become difficult for him to be reappointed."

 

 - ANN

 

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