Beijing: China will continue to remain a top contributor to global economic growth in 2024 on the back of its robust economic recovery, according to participants attending the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2024.

The forum, which is being held in Boao, Hainan province, started on Tuesday and runs through today.

Dismissing speculation that China’s economy is peaking, the participants said the country is on track to achieve steady and sustainable growth in the next few years, fuelled by its accelerated pace of economic transformation as well as intensified efforts to develop new quality productive forces and expand economic openess.

Justin Yifu Lin, dean of Peking University’s Institute of New Structural Economics, said the Chinese economy will expand by over 5% this year if the government steps up policy support and deepens reforms to foster new growth drivers and upgrade traditional industries.

Primary driver

“China will remain the primary driver of global economic growth,” he added.

Huang Yiping, dean of Peking University’s National School of Development, said China’s 2024 annual growth target of around 5% “is achievable”.

“China’s key economic indicators in the first two months were probably slightly better than expected,” he said.

“The economy is relatively stable. We might see some support for economic growth going forward with some hope of further improvement.”

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the country’s industrial output in January and February grew 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) after a 6.8% rise in December, and fixed-asset investment increased 4.2% y-o-y during the January-February period.

Despite downward pressures and challenges such as issues surrounding the real estate sector and local-government debt, Huang said the Chinese economy may continue to improve this year as the country is set to expand its fiscal spending, and a soft landing of the US economy will also be positive for the external environment and exports.

Denis Depoux, global managing director of consultancy Roland Berger, expressed strong optimism about China’s economic prospects, stating that the “fundamentals of the Chinese economy are very strong”.

Dismissing speculation that the Chinese economy is showing signs of peaking, he said the Chinese economy is expanding at a steady pace.

New stories

“The old China stories of the past - low labour costs, relatively few added-value products, massive exports and massive fixed-asset investments in infrastructure building fuelling the economy - are gone,” he said.

“The new China story relies on advanced manufacturing, decarbonisation, increasing consumption and the services economy.”

Looking into the longer term, he said he sees huge growth potential in the Chinese economy given its large middle-income segment and its steady economic transformation process.

“I think China plays a very important role in the world economy. Last year, China contributed about 30% of economic growth globally,” said Carl Fey, professor of strategy at BI Norwegian Business School.

Fey highlighted the marked shift in China’s exports of the high-tech “new three” products - photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles - saying that the country has made considerable progress in terms of boosting innovation and high-tech sectors.

High-tech goods

Official data reflects the marked shift with exports of the high-tech “new three” products witnessing substantial growth. Exports of the “new three” grew by nearly 30% last year, according to the General Administration of Customs.

Fey praised the country’s intensified efforts to foster the development of new quality productive forces, saying that those moves will help promote sustainability and high quality in the long run.

When it comes to concerns about the stability of the Chinese economy, he said the government has adopted very good policies to deal with issues that may hinder development.

“I think China will probably meet its (around) 5% growth target this year,” he added.

 - China Daily