Equity and Debt Components of WACC Formula
It's a common misconception that equity capital has no concrete cost that the company must pay after it has listed its shares on the exchange. In reality, there is a cost of equity.

The shareholders' expected rate of return is considered a cost from the company's perspective. That's because if the company fails to deliver this expected return, shareholders will simply sell off their shares, which will lead to a decrease in share price and the company’s overall valuation. The cost of equity is essentially the amount that a company must spend in order to maintain a share price that will keep its investors satisfied and invested.

If that is the case, wouldnt you need to offset the Debt (NPV) to get the Equity portion value first - before multiplying 30% stakes of JAKS on the Equity to obtain the share price?

It need for WACC, we want to find it for calculate DCF with WACC.

WACC  =  (E/V x Re)  +  ((D/V x Rd)  x  (1 – T))

E = IPP EQUITY
D = IPP DEBT
V = total value of capital (equity plus debt)
E/V = percentage of capital that is equity
D/V = percentage of capital that is debt
Re = cost of equity (required rate of return)
Rd = cost of debt (yield to maturity on existing debt)
T = tax rate

DCF valuations method not a total asset value, it is a power plant business value of NPV. Why use NPV? hai duong power plant’s present value worth RM4.53, so we can compare it’s value to share price.

FCF = Net income + (non-cash expenses）- increasing in working capital - capital expenditure

Probability, this is a FCF Method calculation of accounting, it is a mathematical. We want calculate net income , so we just adjust the method.

Net income = FCF - (non-cash expenses）+ increasing in working capital + capital expenditure

Why set 0 to increasing in working capital and capital expenditure? The reason is we don’t know how much of them, but we can confirm these two item will increase profit . 0 will not make higher profit was predicted, it will be safety in our calculation.

Probability
Wouldnt it be more accurate using the expected outflow & inflow of cash as per the predicted timelines of the project?

Don sahong IPP and Hai duong IPP can predicted well than Malaysia power plant, because of PPA. Laos and Vietnam government will guarantee purchase 80%- 100% power and give a stable coal price, Malaysia don’t have this guarantee.

Stable revenue and stable cost, so their most important work is confirmed power generation in predicted. This model is more easily predicted than other business, so they can predict IRR rate 12%.

First, some IB report are posting in our report , all IB report about power plant company like Malakoff and ytl etc. When you to read all this IB report, you will discovered DCF and WACC. Why they must use DCF with WACC? The reason is inflation and power plant is a long run project for 25year. After 10 year, same money but value must less than today, so purpose of DCF method is consider Value preservation. The other reason is revaluation, when power plant run 5 year from cod, BOT just left 20 year life so calculate DCF just can count 20 year only, decrease value as the life of the power plant decreases.

Invite me pls

THX VIN3133
The best way is to refer to the SOTP valuation method of mfcb.

Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) valuation is an approach to valuing a firm by separately assessing the value of each business segment or subsidiary and adding them up to get the total value of the firm. It can be used in conjunction with various valuation techniques such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling and comparable company analysis.

What is RNAV?

This method is conducted after each property projects’ market value has been determined. The RNAV method is more complex as it requires using the net asset value (NAV), deducting the liabilities to find the Revalued Net Asset Value of the real estate developer.

别吵了！这定义来看，PBB是对的，PBB使用RNAV来计算电厂，其中一定要扣除liabilities，也就是不看hai duong ipp的未来价值，只计算账面价值，就是以hai duong ipp的net asset 来计算。就是不看未来赚多少，也不计算pe和dcf，非常适用于产业重估，感觉这计算好坑，但是不得不承认PBB没错。对就是对，错就是错，但是请以后各位把认为是对的答案找出来，或者是证明那答案是错的方法找出来，不是一味地争论，谢谢。

另外，PBB对MFCB使用的估值法是SOTP，就是活用法，例如don sahong适合用discounted cash flow method就用DCF，而resource（石灰石行业）适合使用PE就使用PE，按照适合的方法来计算。

RNAV是全部都以net asset来算。如果有什么错，可以告诉我，谢谢！如果要反应给PBB，可以告诉他们，不适合使用RNAV估值法，可以改回SOTP

通常电厂正式售电前都有一段试用期，6月是1号机组开始发电，9月才是commercial operation date（COD），9月1号机组才算正式加入国家电网。9月后2号机组才可以开始试营运发电，要12月才正式加入。不知道有没有改，因为我看到的报导有3个月试用期和6个月试用期，不懂哪个正确。最后会不会延迟不知道，因为covid的关系。由于越南疫情不严重，我觉得应该是延后2星期隔离期，真正就不得而知，只是猜想。

https://bnews.vn/quy-hoach-dien-vii-dieu-chinh-dong-dien-192-cong-trinh-luoi-dien-tu-110-500-kv/148573.html

In which, it has completed important works such as synchronous power grid projects of two power centers, Vinh Tan and Long Phu, Vinh Tan and Long Phu; To complete phase 1 of power grid works connecting Hai Duong, Song Hau 1 Thermal Power Plant; Projects to relieve the capacity of Lai Chau hydroelectricity source such as raising the capacity of the 500 kV Lai Chau and 220 kV Than Uyen stations; Works to release the capacity of renewable energy sources in Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan and nearby areas ...

这新闻中找出来的，由于Google translate，我不敢保证准不准确

大家好像搞错了一点，ehome有提到他计算出来的1020m FCF和 pbb给的valuation 1096m接近，猜想如下：会不会原本pbb用DCF算出来后的是1096m FCF然后弄错而当作valuation也不是无不可能。也就是说pbb的计算是正确的，只是定义上出现小差错，才会造成那么大的差价。分析员也是人，不是特意责怪他，而是希望他能看到这问题再重新检查一遍。分析员也是我们这些普通人去pbb interview成功后的成功者，也不能说DK66没资格评论pbb分析员的资格，请问你们有谁知道他的来历吗？他DK66可能以前就是某家大行的首席分析员呢？或者他现在还是某家大行的会计师？你们有谁能肯定他们没这种实力？只会一味地用自己的想象来决定别人是什么背景好像这逻辑思维有点问题。

Aseng
你问12%IRR是怎么找来的？其实是算出来的，就是用DCF找出来的，DCF公式里有3个未知数，那就是NPV，CF和rate。他们确定了NPV（8.04b）和每年CF（1020m），之后再计算出12% IRR。如果我有一片地，用来种植水果，那么我肯定知道收成，成本，总投资额，然后就可以计算出我一年收入和大概能拿到多少现金，这一切只要是你熟悉的都能知道如何计算，发电厂如何运作如何收成的这方面就不是我们的能力范围了，何况合同中的价码都清楚，所以他们肯定能计算出，加上cpecc有vinh tan 1这家电厂的前例。而我们只借助jaks给的8.04b和12% IRR来反推算出公司预期的现金收入是多少。我们只要清楚知道DK66送给我们的最有价值资料（Jaks Resources - Risk assessment by CPECC），这资料中显示几个特点，就是越南政府给出极好的条件，例如煤炭价格涨，电费也会随之而涨；煤炭厂供应不了煤炭，从国外进口煤炭与合同中差距的额外溢价和成本将由煤炭厂承担，一切都由越南政府担保，还有好多这类的不平等条约。大家可以自己去读。为什么会造成这种局面，我想可能是2011年的越南很穷，急需外资注入资金建厂，因此才有那么多的优厚条件。

其实DCF这部分计算的是公司CF就是现金流不是profit。
很简单，你买车头期加贷款100k（RM8.04b），头期20k（RM2b)，分期付款5年还清80k（RM6b/还贷n期），但是车可以用10年，每年折旧10k，但是为什么不以分期付款来计算费用，原因就是因为车可以用10年，总不能前5年供完车而后五年就没折旧费用，相对地前5年盈利都被折旧盖过了，而后5年才大赚钱，你们会这么计算盈利吗？你做运输的，一年现金收入50k，扣除车油费等费用车贷利息等大概15k，剩35k（RM1.02b)，但是要记得扣除10k（321.6m）折旧，盈利是25k（698.4m），现金收入扣除15k剩35k，但是10k折旧是无形费用（不是贷款），所以现金收入35k（25k盈利+10k折旧）。最后再从35k中要还的车贷拿去还（只是这笔帐不是营业计算，而是融资计算），由于这关于到cash flow，所以大家容易困乱。

huahtai98
ehome009计算是对，我说的1020m是现金流不是profit，profit是1020m-（8.04b/25）= RM698,400,00
投资进去的8.04b要分25年来分摊，因为折旧的关系。8.04b就像买车先投入钱买全款，然后再每年平摊来计算，平均每年321.6m，你付全款了，所以第二年平摊费用321.6m你不用再付钱，但是总现金收入1020m有一部分是折旧费用和剩下的一部分是盈利，所以321.6m是现金可以拿去还车的贷款。

DK66
不用客气，有人误导就要用人引导，不好看到有心的人被误入歧途

谢谢！我觉得不了解最好的方式就是问，不想问就去查，现今已经是网络时代，大概什么东西都能Google search到。

DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

没办法！因为一口咬定pbb是绝对正确的人很多，pbb的这份research影响很大，但是他们没人想到分析员也是人，也有犯错的一天。中国三大银行能贷出RM 6倍，就证明这间发电厂的价值绝对在RM 6b以上

同样是pbb，但是分析mfcb的chong hoe leong pbb分析师就厉害。当时我买mfcb RM3.30，他就给出RM4.80的TP，因为他很清楚电厂的价值必须提早显现，越近完成就越高，等到收成再买是不可能的，所以提早给出正确的TP引导投资人去买，像DK66和EHOME009这样的分析师我给个赞

在线的朋友，谁有办法让pbb看到这问题的，就把文章发给pbb的人看

重点是pbb的估价有很大的问题

我在想这分析员被高层知道不知道会不会把他炒了？笑死我了！

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ytl-power-subsidiary-acquiring-singapore-power-plant-rm1b

ytl最近拿到的小小发电厂（396mw）都要 RM 1b，发电厂的费用是规模越大越贵，这1200mw发电厂 pbb只给值 RM1b？

dk66
应该是pbb要吃鸵鸟吧！

应该是其他三家银行不会算数，共同借贷60亿给jaks和cpeec建电厂。如果是ppb只要贷款10亿给jaks他们，应该就足够他们建一间1200mw的电厂了

嘻嘻！pbb是对的？整间hai duong power plant投资高达80亿，而pbb只给10.96亿，然后大家认同他是对的？这数学我都有点不会算了。只是贷款额就高达60亿，电厂真的只值10亿？换言之，大家去pbb贷款6万和给头期钱2万才能买到价值1万的车…还是说80万的房子，pbb只估价一万？我想问问大家看到问题所在吗？谢谢Ehome009提供的资料

dk66
他们没那么坏，不要那么说他们，他们是来拯救世界的，防止新手被你和我这类价值主题的人骗。也应该谢谢他们心地那么善良，但是我谢谢你那么坏的把资料找齐分享给我，因为我是坏人。

我一点都不明白他们的想法？我来这个jaks的i3是为了找看有没有更多关于jaks的资料好让自己决定买不买，如果没兴趣就不会特意到这个forum来，如果我的嘴巴那么厉害，我都不用来喷跌而是用来喊涨，我买什么股就去什么股的i3 forum里喊涨，干嘛在这里和大家浪费时间？也谢谢DK66提供许多有价值的资料，接下来jaks是涨是亏都是我的事，好像轮不到别人来替我们担心。我觉得他们大概是想在这里拯救世界，提防大家受骗，成为大家心目中的英雄吧！

DK66
genting，tenaga，pbb，klk等大公司能有今天你以为都是这些喷子的功劳吗？我说是他们觉得能涨然后他们喊涨之所以涨，他们的嘴巴非常厉害这种话，请问你们有谁会相信吗？我自己都不相信，这些能有今天，哪间不是因为生意越做越大，盈利越来越高。最近手套股口罩股能涨都是因为他们眼光准？肯定不是，是因为大家都知道covid 19需要大量的手套和口罩，当然是因为他们看到这类公司会大赚瘟疫财然后股票随着大涨的关系。何为炒股？那就是小公司才容易被炒，只有这类公司才容易被嘴巴喊起就起，他们的嘴巴有没有那么厉害，我不知道，但我知道公司的价值取决于公司的生意，不然云顶这类博弈酒等的公司早30年都被回教党喊倒了。我觉得没必要去理会他们，你只要专心研究就好，他们爱怎么说就让他们怎么说，心情愉快最重要，你越高兴他们越伤心

dk66
无论在Google用英文和中文都找不到真正的新闻，你可以用这个Dự án Nhiệt điện Hải Dương 去Google找更多的资料

Regarding the project of 500 kV transmission line of Nam Dinh 1 Thermal Power Plant - Pho Noi (synchronous Thermal Power Plant BOT Nam Dinh 1), the Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Planning and Investment to guide Vietnam Electricity (EVN) to complete improve documents to submit for appraisal and decision on investment policy. As for the 500 kV transmission line project connecting the Nghi Son 2 BOT Thermal Power Plant, EVN / EVNNPT has studied and reported to the Ministry of Industry and Trade the plan to accelerate the 500 kV TBA project, with the capacity of 900 MVA Nghi Son.

At the same time, he actively urged ministries, branches and localities on the policy of changing purposes and planting alternative forests to ensure the progress of the 500 kV line connected in June 2020. Particularly, the 220 kV transmission line project connected to Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has completed section 4 circuits (about 1 km) to synchronize unit 1 of Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant.

身在马来西亚是不可能了解当地的近况，只有身在当地的人才能清楚了解，越南语的新闻是给越南人看的，只有这新闻才是最真实的。

https://bnews.vn/quy-hoach-dien-vii-dieu-chinh-dong-dien-192-cong-trinh-luoi-dien-tu-110-500-kv/148573.html?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

这报道中看得出海阳发电厂的重要性，越南总理亲自督促必须完工

https://m.baohaiduong.vn/doanh-nghiep/nha-may-dien-ty-do-truoc-gio-g-124692?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

越南海阳报的探访海阳发电厂的新闻，看来6月就是jaks的新开始，差不多等于越南的实况预告。由于是越南语，想读懂的自己google translation吧！

其实你是属于长期投资的，你放这些我觉得也没人会理你，因为好像多数都是股价主义者，我也是长期投资者，只是进来逛逛。看你那么积极，给你个赞

也谢谢你的分享！其实你写blog就好了，干嘛来这里分享

但是多估算50k-100k桶也很吓人

erkongseng 你那个north sabah623544桶的数目不是真实数目，因为当时hibiscus接手的时候就包含shell还没出售的油（计算在9000多万的inventories里），所以应该没那么多桶，500多k桶还是有的。怕你计算太乐观

I know is sold in dollars, just somebody tell me intangible assets(RM, cost of purchase)= Revenue(oil sold price), so I think Hibiscus’s oil is sold in RM and get a huge discount price(RM 21.025).

I am sorry about that. I think you know it, oil field purchase price include drilling assets like drilling assets(tangible assets) and oil field(intangible assets). If somebody selling the oil field to me with the current oil price and just a measurement of barrels, how can I make profit from this acquisition? You count the intangible assets is REVENUE, so the intangible assets=total barrels(hibiscus own) x oil price? Hibiscus’s two oil field have a total measurement of 63,600,000 barrels, RM1,337,252,000/63,600,000barrels= RM21.025 per barrel oil, I don’t know Hibiscus sell oil is count for ringgit Malaysia, I will update my information,that is my wrong. Thank for your sharing. Sorry about that. I am just a cheater. I will keep my talk, thx

Nobody will known up or down tomorrow, regardless of up or down and just keep your heart in peace

Yes! OrlandoOIL, don’t trust me, my sharing just a reference for you, you just to prove my information cause misleading news or sharing are too many, that is right attitude. You have a good learning ability, congratulations! Haha

My suggestion is find and prove the truth by yourself, cause I just trust the truth and myself. Somebody’s shares just a reference, you can use google find your information efficiently and use the information logically. Just my nonsense talk, hope my sharing will give you a little bit of helpful

When paid the part of purchase north Sabah price, they will make the part of negative goodwill. If every company can make revaluation easily , the government will sakit kepala. The revaluation must real, Hibiscus find professional make valuation.

I think the reason is the large investor(you call big shark)do a massive selling and make you shock then sell your stock. I remember a huge number of transactions on 0.95 more than 90m ringgit last prior. They sell the price more than they buy will profit, they aren’t greedy so higher than cost also can sold, the main purpose is buy cheap share when you shock selling. Just my nonsense opinion

I want added that, amortisation of intangible assets revaluation (negative goodwill) is cashless and just a new number. 38% tax of negative goodwill we save is cash.

I think everybody was confusion of negative goodwill and why nobody confuse the purpose of creating negative goodwill? I think don’t have any creation is useless and you must thinking about the purpose.Do you know amortisation of intangible assets? Do you know why Hibiscus have a huge number of intangible assets? First, we can’t know correctly how many barrel of oil in the oil field and just a measurement of experience, so use intangible assets. Oil’s barrel measurement is intangible assets so Hibiscus have a huge number of intangible assets. Second, negative goodwill just like gain on revaluation of vehicles, when revaluation was happened and assets will increasing. The important point is negative goodwill no need cash buy and just add a new number into assets account, although negative goodwill is a profit but no need pay tax(Q318 pg18). Third, intangible assets and tangible assets also have consumption. Example: vehicle will be old so the value will reduce and the reduction of vehicle value, we call depreciation of vehicle and that is a cost for production. Hibiscus produce oil from oil field ,the number barrel of oil in oil field will reduce so we call amortisation of intangible assets(Q418 pg6) and it also a expenses. Why Hibiscus create negative goodwill? The purpose is Tax avoidance. Amortisation of intangible assets will reduce profit, profit cut back will reduce tax pay. I willing company save 38% tax and just a reasonable profit, and then not like a stupid pay 38% tax for government and get a beautiful result. This decision can save RM76,000,000(two quarters negative goodwill) in Hibiscus bank for development or pay dividend. I am happy to see the smart decisions of management. Just my opinion, thx

Thx for your discussion

anyone can analysis the advantage of negative goodwill? Cause I discover gain on goodwill wont pay tax, If impairment the negative goodwill is like a cost? After profit deduct the impairment loss can help to tax less?

Three reason for hold HIBISCUS. First ,trade war and US will increasing interest , I think US dollar must be the strongest currency, so oil sold count for US dollar is a competitive advantage. Second, US sanctions against Iran will decreasing oil supply and make oil price increase or maintain on current oil price. Third, crude oil is necessity energy for any country, no crude oil no traffic and a country will paralysis. Q418 us to ringgit currency below 4 and Q119 higher than 4. Just my opinion, if got any wrong and correct me please.thx