By the way the amount due from CMC (arbitration) is RM176m (notes to the accounts Q9 financial results...not RM240m. Short term loans (due within 12 months) stands at RM370m of which MTN loans stand at RM240m (due soon). The rest of the RM370m short term loans are revolving credits and overdrafts which are usually not recalled even though listed as due within 12 mths.

I came back early from lunch just to get back into this forum...eat full nothing to do (chinese saying - I am not Chinese by the way)...

Before anyone buys some more...

The financial situation is not good with 3Q'16 losses from associates at RM40m and accumulated losses for the 9 mth period 2016 from associates at RM100m. The RM40m losses of associates was from the 2 units 1 & 2. Development/interest costs could no longer be capitalised resulting in RM 40m for 3 months. If all 4 plants completed interest cost would be at least RM80m for 3 mths = RM26m per month and RM320m per annum (just interest cost).

Also, currently the interest for the 3rd and 4th plant is still being capitalised and yet losses for the 3Q was RM67m from entire operations. Additionally, principal payments should start for plants 1 & 2 given that interest cannot be capitalised anymore (no more moratorium) and its anyone's guess what the amount is. Also I remember seeing in the balance sheet - investment in associates at RM 1 billion (RKM Powergen being the most significant associate) in the balance sheet a few years ago..as it was the largest single asset they had...now it stands at RM593m down RM100m just for the 9mths ended 30SEP16. Even if the 4 plants are running...the income of RM70 per annum from all 4 plants cannot ...in my opinion cover the interest let alone the principal.

Where RKM Powergen is getting its loans other than Indian Govenment assisted, how much borrowed in total and when they need to start repayment is crucial to deciding the whole group's fate in my opinion. Also, like I mentioned...its possible that Mudajaya has guaranteed the associates entire borrowings. Meaning 26% owned but 100% backing the borrowings of the associates!

Hope I am wrong guys.

Sorry don't ask me...I am a loser. Can provide info and my understanding of the financials...you guys make the decisions.

better get back to work before I get sacked...so kepochi...

I have just found some old info 2013 where the ministry of power India appears to have given loans to power producers to help in the construction..maybe good news... page 117 I believe. Website provided...maybe someone can get the latest..this 1 too old 2013. At least we know the govenment of India provides financial help. Sharing is caring!

7.0 CONSORTIUM LENDING GROUP CLG is primarily responsible for administrating loans for the private (Power) projects where PFC is the lead FI. The unit is also corresponding with developers of IPPs, corporate bodies, prospective lenders for identifying loan syndication proposals and coordinate with members of Power Lenders Club for providing single window facility to power project developers. The Consortium Lending Group (CLG) is thus, dedicated to the needs of those private sector borrowers who have reposed faith in the services of the Corporation. During the Financial Year 2011-12 and first two quarters of Financial Year 2012-13, the unit has managed to achieve disbursements of `4800 crore and `1300 crore respectively, despite the recent challenges faced by the sector with major setback to private players. The major projects which received disbursements were RKM Powergen Pvt. Ltd., Udupi Power Corp. Ltd., Vadinar Power Company Ltd., Lanco Amarkantak Power Ltd., KSK Mahanadi Power Company Ltd., KVK Nilanchal Power Pvt. Ltd., Ind-Barath Energy (Utkal) Ltd., IndiaBulls Power Ltd. and others. Further, in the current financial year to align with the government’s commitment to increase the share



http://powermin.nic.in/sites/default/files/uploads/Annual_Report_2012-13_English.pdf

If I am not mistaken... I also read that sometime in Oct'15 Mudajaya went to the arbitration court to fight against the cancellation of a coal supply contract due to time lapse and won an extension due to delay not being their fault. 10bagger10...hold no shares and have not much debts >30K...only.. living life simple and can sleep at night. No epf all lost in market ...but house almost fully paid. Still working in a small company. 2 kids graduated and working...i more to go. No money to buy any shares

Please remember I am not for or against...just sharing. Sharing is caring.

You must have some technical info on plant operations...let debate on the financial issue at hand...just to share..no offence. Share of losses of associates at about RM40m (mainly interest and amortisation) per quarter for just plant 1 completed plant (cannot capitalise the afforsaid due to completion - COD) ...RM13.3m per month..assuming no increase in losses for the single plant = RM160m p.a.

Since you are good at the technical side...what about the coal contracts...I read that the contracts had to be re-negotiated due to prolonged delay in firing...it had lapsed. At what cost? Coal is a vital comodity ...first of all..sourced locally or imported...

Just for knowledge la ok guys...I may be completely wrong ok guys...but I dig a lot.

If anyone of you investors want info into the financial strength of any public listed companies in the Bursa...I can give you 1 for a small fee. 1st analysis free of charge next RM50. Serious. Had some 34 yrs experience in a financial institution. Jokes aside.

Hope is there

Why I mentioned that Fairfax might buy over the power assets...old excerpt taken just to point out that sometimes they buy over companies...

"The purchase of TIG represents good value for Fairfax, said Mr. Ward. The price is $16.50 a share, higher than TIG's shares have recently been trading but far below its $22 book value.
Over the past few years Fairfax has bought several financially troubled companies. In 1997 it bought Sphere Drake Holdings Ltd., which had faced several financial difficulties since the early 1980s (BI, June 30, 1997)."

Anything else u want to know about this company...unqualifed info free of charge...just sharing

Oh by the way...CCM did not dispute the work done but refused to pay full amount due to counter claim for some complaint.

There is some RM200m due to Mudajaya in arbitration with CCM for work MRT done with decision by arbitrator due anytime now. That $$ can pay for the RM240m MTN due soon. Just sharing...i time used to sleep eat work...Mudajaya!

Maybe delays not Mudajaya's fault...perhaps purposely done by authorities so as not to aggravate power oversupply. Just a thought.

and lost that much too!

I doubt you can find an unqualified person who has that much knowledge about this company.

But at 0.77cts ...you might as well go for broke...unless its your life savings...like how I lost mine.

Distribution of excess power in Charttisgarh to energy deficient states hindered by the size of the huge country and not feasible

I am not running down Mudajaya just sharing my knowledge on the share

More info is to your benefit...collate all check and then decide. Not like me...damned loser!!

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/India%E2%80%99s-Questionable-Ultra-Mega-Power-Plans-Viability-Issues-Continue-to-Complicate-New-Coal-Fired-Projects-August-2016.pdf

2015 Sept Info
With deficit coming down, new capacity addition is causing a concern

NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 3:
The latest government data is an indicator of why the power situation improved this summer. The power deficit had come down to 2.2 per cent between April-July 2015 and electricity generation rose 3.5 per cent in July.

But developers fear that with 82,241 MW of thermal power generation capacity under various stages of construction as of July 2015, it could soon lead to a situation of oversupply.

In April-July alone, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority, electricity requirement grew 0.1 per cent to 369,253 million units, and availability rose almost 2 per cent to 361,299 million units.

With the financially stressed state distribution utilities opting for long power cuts in the hunt for power purchase agreements at cheaper tariffs, the growth in supply in the country is outstripping requirement.

The average power tariffs on the spot markets like Indian Energy Exchange during the period has been down by over ₹1 a unit as compared to the same months last year, while the volume of electricity traded on the exchanges has gone up by at least 400-500 million units every month apart from June.

In such a situation, generators are also not producing to their full capacity. Plant load factors of thermal power plants are down to 60.96 per cent so far in the current fiscal from 66.42 per cent in the previous year.

Experts differ on their views on the pace at which the country needs to add generation capacity.

A former NTPC Chairman and Managing Director recently said: “Provided you are not looking for windfall profits then investment in power generation is still viable. NTPC has been generating return on investment of 18-19 per cent quite comfortably. Higher than that may not be possible.”

“In a country like ours where the per capita consumption of electricity is still very low, it’s a question of whether to have the capacity in place for future demand or not. Five-six years down the line when the demand will eventually increase. At that point of time do you want to have the plants in place or do you want to start building the plants then?” he added.

However, private sector counterparts say with the low plant load factors of the existing installed capacity, the country can go slow on capacity addition. “The focus should be on fully utilising the existing capacity which can easily meet the demand for the next few years,” said a private sector power industry representative.

(This article was published on September 3, 2015)

Parting shot...538.4m shares in market @ 0.77 = RM414.6 million. Value of Mudajaya's total shares in market (market cap) compared to Net tangible assets value of RM969.12m (almost RM1 billion) as at 3rd quarter'16. What a discount...any takers...perhaps Fairfax? 50 % discount on its net asset value.

Good luck and bye as I realise that some of you might not want my comments and thoughts anymore.

So now shareholders have enough queries to ask the management come next AGM (if the banks don't trow in the spanner before that date - RM240m MTN due very soon). 1. Total Financial cost of the plants so far. 2. Overruns - Who bears the overruns does the Chartisgarh state (the contract issuer) support financially 3. Bank borrowings - in total and who guaranteed it. 4. Principal and interest repayment terms. 5. Coal supply - renegotiated at what price - sufficient to run the 4 plants? 7. Sale of Power tariff - income p.a. sufficient to cover interest and principal payments? 8. How much more funding to complete plants 3 & 4 and how to get the funds. In my opinion, only if there is sufficient financial backing from the Indian state authorities or if Fairfax decide to buy over cheap to protect its 15% ownership....the crocs (banks) will take over.

Just in case some of you did not read this. No more coverage from Public Research due to "limited management access"

Dumb analyst..cost me so much money! It is so easy to see that more than 65% of all Mudajaya's assets are screwed up in India and they talk about silver lining...with construction contract gains! penny wise pound foolish!

Moreover...we assume the approvals for the plants were held-up because of corruption in India...maybe it was a clear case of engineering errors that lead to the delays until now...who knows. After all, it is in India's favor if the power plants are approved for operation years ago when they needed power badly.

Losses on the India Power Plants are almost certain ..in my opinion...it is only the question of how much financial impact is there on Mudajaya. If they stand as guarantor for the JV..(.which is likely even though it is not stated in the notes to the audited accounts...in my opinion) it will be in dire straits to say the least. The power plant assets make up almost 67% of all assets of Mudajaya. Hope someone from the management team can correct me if I am wrong...please. On the hopeful side, maybe the banks or the state government can continue to fund the project until completion and in that case limit the losses to Mudajaya.

I agree the power plants are almost complete and will be used sooner or later. However, to exacerbate the situation, I believe there is currently, an oversupply of power in the state of Chartisgarh. To construct power lines to other states is unfeasible. Additionally, more funding is required to complete the plants. Approval to fire-up is another huge issue. The banks must be holding the trigger right now as they can't bear waiting anymore I believe. They have depositors rights to care for and are not businessmen. They might just go ahead with liquidation and leave it to the auctioneers as "business as usual". Mudajaya must be frantically looking for a buyer right now before the banks react. Liquidation will take many years....hope I am absolutely wrong! Only the state government of India can help in this situation because they are the ones who awarded this contract but it remains to be seen if the clauses in the contract were well thought of.

My 0 cents worth

If shareholders can get Mudapengsan to provide the terms of the joint venture (partnership agreement) and the contract by the India state government for the construction of the plants...then only can 1 get a clearer idea of the company's financial position. Things like profit sharing is known 26% to 74%...but this does not mean everything is at that %. The guarantors for loans granted by banks also could be given by any entity/entities and not necessary in that same percentage. Now the India state government must have also provided finance to build RM5 billion project (cost estimated at the beginning when contract awarded was announced)...but looking at the loss of the associate...the portion of loans by RKM Powergen must also be huge.

Disclosure is minimal

I have spent 7 years analysing this company and I still dono so many things!

Simple maths...RM40 million loss for last 3 months from 26% owned associate...does that mean the Indian counterpart's loss (74% ownership) would be in the region of RM120m for 3rd Q'16?..so the JV...RKM Powergen on the whole reported a loss of RM160m for the 3rd Q'16 quarter...assuming losses do not increase... x 4 quarters = Rm640m per annum from now going forward...if no income from plants???? remember the income estimation by analyst... income from plants max RM70m p.a.

That is not only the sad story...what about the borrowings?? Mudajaya has RM371m in its books...what about the JV's books? How much owing to Indian banks?...Guaranteed by whom? Payment terms? Since RKM Powergen is a private Ltd Co...it is not published...your guess on this RM8 billion spent so far (my crazy guess) is as good as mine. Just my worthless guess work to you guys...I know how u feel...I am 1 of the biggest loser with no comeback in plan.

Just find out who is the guarantor for the bank borrowings in the JV in India (RKM Powergen) and you will open the pandera's box...I believe.

Management must come out with the cards on the table....but if they do it could also mean penny stock future....so keep mouth shut?

Medium Term Notes (MTN) borrowings of RM240m due soon...

If not Mudapengsan

All above is my unprofessional opinions ok

Actually...strictly speaking...If Mudajaya did indeed guarantee the entire loan for the partnership...they should have reported it in the Contingent liabilities in their audited accounts...so maybe there is still hope that they are only liable for their 26% portion of the partnership liabilities

Sad another Malaysian company hit by the "Big Project" in India/China syndrome. Not enough thought put to the pitfalls that can happen...of course easy to say on hindsight...I lost a lot and am still very sad....

The groups outstanding order book and recent huge borrowings cannot make up for the losses incurred or to be incurred in the future as profit margin is presumably thin...and banks loans to this profitable sector are usually "ring fenced" meaning cannot be used for any other project.

Take a look at the ringgit. What the French bank means is that if anything, Malaysia’s central bank would be selling the dollar to rescue the slide of the ringgit. This month, the ringgit has moved well below its 50-day moving average.

So what happened? “One possibility is that the PBoC swap line was tapped for dollar liquidity purposes.” Ah, so the Chinese may be bailing Malaysia out again.

China bailing out the ringgit. PBOC swap line is suspected to be used to increase M'sian reserves by US500m - Societe Generale.

us dollar I mean

Maybank selling now 4.525! at 10.50

Short term there is danger of capital controls as the ringgit is under tremendous pressure and intervention by BNM is limited as reserves are at 80% of what the world bank considers safe. 4.98 to the US dollar (maybank). Political risks added and the prospect of the afforesaid is looking more inevitable...which might trigger another market crash.....hope I am very wrong as all m'sians will be losers. Only if the price of oil moves to 50 and above...can we be saved.

Dear heaven 123 I am no insider...lost count how much I lost...anybody don't believe I lost more than 100K place your bet and I will prove to u. Only Fairfax can save the Indian venture...and that also at a loss to Mudajaya because of the poor bargaining power at the present time...at least investors won't loose their pants and company wont go under liquidation...I believe. Power will be back in demand in India...but for now sadly it's not there now. So long term investors like Fairfax have the financial clout to wait but will buy over the plants only if can make a solid profit from Mudajaya. They own about 15% and will be in their interest to save the comapny. My 5cts worth. Even though I tot of buying 2 lots at 86 cts... just to try and get back a few ringgit...I changed my mind.

It was for work done and will boost cash flows but already accounted for in asset side as $$$ owing i guess.