So far I've been looking but not pressing any buttons.

What a ride it has been.

Can't imagine it actually hit RM7++ yesterday when everyone was talking about RM4 not too long ago.

Well sadly it is now almost RM6.

If I had a time machine, I would hv been out of the mess, doubling up at RM5 and then exiting at RM7, with the dividends earned this year as my profit.

The past yew days, gloves looked like a meme stock.

Well lets hope it stays above RM6.00 for now.

Looks like another 10% increase again today.

Unfortunately I hesitated last week when it went below RM5.00.

My average price is therefore still at RM9.00 and I am not planning to add anymore at these levels.

Anyway, I'll sit back and watch.

Wonder how high it will go. I'm thinking it will go back to 7 ish....

What do you guys think?

Sooner or later, I was expecting a major correction in the US markets. Ridding high for too long.

If this really is a new virus, the economies of the world won't be able to take another 1.5 years of this. It's nuts....

Crazy day, totally unexpected.

Hopefully not pandemic 2.0.

Posted by SWT1988 > Nov 26, 2021 1:15 PM

Good to play ding dong. For holding, l prefer to buy below 4.50


I think you are absolutely right SWT1988. I am not much of ding dong person , so will be happy to hold at these levels, consider adding if goes below RM5.00

Finally something to smile about after weeks of despair. Will enjoy it while it last . Too bad I didn't pick up anything at RM5.00 but no regrets if it stays above RM5.00

Interesting to see how the SP moves from here.

If it stays between RM5.00 to RM6.00 range until year end, that would be a relief.

Next year is another story. Hopefully RM4.97 becomes the 52 week low for the next year and we don't retest it.

Maybe wishful thinking but who knows.

Hartalega attempting to stage a technical rebound, says RHB Retail Research

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 26): RHB Retail Research said Hartalega Holdings Bhd is attempting to stage a technical rebound.

In a trading stocks note today, the research house said the trading volume has been decreasing, which suggest that selling pressure is tapering down.

“If the stock climbs above the immediate resistance of RM5.20, a bullish bias could emerge. It may climb higher towards the next resistance of RM5.40, followed by RM5.60.

“Meanwhile, breaching below the RM4.97 support may see the correction resuming,” it said.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hartalega-attempting-stage-technical-rebound-says-rhb-retail-research

Finally, EPF acquired some Harta shares....

22 Nov 2021 Acquired
201,200 EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD

Tenaga is at 5 year low. Quarterly results due soon, may go down some more. Dividend only due next year after next Q results in February. So between now and then may go down more. Will be watching it.

Jolynce, I made a little with Tenanga this year too but only bought 1000 shares. Earned RM580 dividend and recently sold at RM10.50 and made RM650. Not bad, that like 12.5% return in less than a year.

Only if I didnt get hit with Harta, I could continue to dabble and enjoy lettle gains here and there. Just got too greedy with Harta, now lost confidence in the game....

Bang Miskin, What do you think about Tenanga?

It hit 52 week low today at RM9.40.

I think Quarterly results out soon.

Plus news they took a 3 billion loan. Heavy in borrowing.

EarnAmeal, you are absolutely right.

I have decided to stop looking at this counter.

Not even considering averaging down for the moment.

Will try to forget about it for now.

Bang Miskin, is the worse over?

Or is this just a technical rebound or dead cat bounce?

Bang Miskin, you are right , RM5 is definitely a good buy even if it could go down further to RM4.00 to RM3.50.

It surely can't go to Zero as the the company is not going bust.

I am now thinking of averaging down just to be able to break even in a few years.

Anyone averaging now without the baggage that we have will surely stand to make some money over the next few years.

Well...thats the way the cookie crumbles I guess.

The hardest decision now for me is when to start averaging down.

I thought I had a plan in place but now having second thoughts about it.

Selling now is not an option. It's only whether to buy some more to average down and if so when?

RM9 + RM5 divide by 2 = RM7.00
RM9 + RM4 divide by 2 = RM6.50

RM9 + RM4.60 divide by 2 = RM6.80
( start averaging at RM5 , intervals of 20 sen thereafter)

RM9 + RM4.40 divide by 2 = RM6.70
( start averaging at RM4.80 , intervals of 20 sen thereafter)

Looks like not much difference between starting at RM4.80 or RM5.00.

So the question for me is RM4.00 vs RM5.00?

I wish I had a crystal ball.

RM3.50 should be the absolute bottom, if the market crashes we could see that. Otherwise it would probably slide down to RM4.00 as JP Morgan has set that price in everyone's mind.

I have decided to wait till RM4.80 before deciding on whether to buy the next batch.....

Even if it goes down to RM3.50 after that, should rebound back at least to current levels eventually....

For now, the knife continues to fall

Was waiting for RM5.00. Now that it is RM5.00, I may wait a little longer, maybe RM4.80 to start accumulating. Thinking of picking up slowly in 5 batchesshould it continue to drop,

RM4.80
RM4.60
RM4.40
RM4.20
RM4.00

Then forget it for 5 years.....

Hit new 52 week low today at RM5.05, probably will breach RM5.00 tommorow.

No one knows how low it will go. Falling knife...it continues to fall.

JP Morgan says RM4.00. Simply Wall Street says RM3.57.

My last chance of getting out was RM6.00. Missed that. Just couldn't pull the trigger although I knew RM5.00 would come.

Now I'm in for the long haul.

If I start averaging down at RM5.00 or RM4.80 until I double my position, I should have an average price of under RM7.00.

In 4 to 5 years time, I may get my capital back and maybe get to a little more than FD rates.

With modest expectations, anything more will be a bonus.

Still very low volume. I am waiting for RM5.00 to pick up 1st batch of top up.

I feel the timing of JP Morgan's note and its reporting by the Edge somewhat accelerated the drop in Harta's price, ex dividend.

Why wait until ex dividend?

Whilst Bang Miskin had predicted that the price may drop to RM5.00 ex dividend, nobody expected it to be this fast.

Thats a 10% drop, for a company that just paid out its best dividend in history by far.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like a novice.

@Jolynce: Kossan's ex price was RM2.30. Lowest price reached after ex (to date) was RM1.95 --> 15% drop. I'm using this as a guide for buying back the Harta shares that I sold on ex date.

Harta's ex price was RM5.53 , so 15% off is RM4.70.

I'll be happy to pick up some at RM4.80.

@ YourQuirkyWays29, the money I invested in Harta is long term savings which was sitting in FD. Whilst I dont need it anytime soon, it just means I'll miss out on other investment opportunities if it's stuck in Harta for too long.

No one really knows what will happen, "c'est la vie".

I said I will buy at RM5.00 and I will. If it goes down to RM4.00,I may buy some more. Now just fed up lah. Had so many ideas on how I was going to invest my money after I turn 50. Now a lot stuck in Harta....

Only after 1 year of investing, I am already tired.

I am just going to invest what I have left in my trading account plus the dividends I have earned this year in either 1 or 2 more batches of Harta and then forget about it for a long long time.

Going to treat it as my FD. Hopefully it continues to give me better returns than FD.

Just renewed one of my FDs at 2.45% per annum.

Thats Pathetic but probably better than losing 40% of the capital in 1 year.

Over the years many of my friends got burnt in the stock market and never went back. Maybe I'll be one of them too. Who knows.

For now, I just want to finish topping up Harta, and forget about it

I've lower my TP for next batch at RM4.80 to bring down my average price to RM7.80.

This is in view of its rapid fall over the past few days and JP Morgan's recent downgrade to RM4.00.

Jolynce, I'm thinking of reinvesting my all my dividends from Harta this year into Harta for my 2nd batch, got enough for my 1st batch in my trading account. Just waiting for my price....

As for me, I am quite sure I'll pick up 2 batches ie at RM5.00 and RM4.80. Beyond that I dont know. I really hope it doesnt go lower than that.

FYI Harta's trailing dividend yield is now above 15%!

Just hit my 100 posts in this forum after 1.5 months. All in Harta discussion.

In a way its therapeutic.

When I started posting here, the SP was already RM6.00.

In hindsight I probably should have got out when it hit above RM6.20 mid October but was holding for RM6.50.

Then before Ex date, holding on for RM6.05.

Well that is all academic now. Im truly stuck at point of no return.

Whatever happens now, I probably will loose less than I have already lost so no point bailing out now.

Hopefully things look better before I hit 200 posts. Probably slow down posting here.

Thanks for reading and responding guys.

@QuirkyWays, mine is the highest amongst the 3 of us , RM9.00 and I'm now down more than 40%.

Therefore my only hope is to average down and pray but I'll have to wait until it goes below RM5.00 to start, then I think I'll pick up slowly every 20 sen drop form RM5.00 until I double my current holdings:-

5.00,4.80,4.60,4.40,4.20.

I cant imagine it going under RM4.00 but who knows.

Then I'll just forget about it until the next pandemic.

I wonder why didnt they sell it late last year?earlier this year when they started to predict its drop in share price?

Jolynce and Bang Miskin, I was seriously considering exiting my entire position at RM6.05 prior to ex date as I really had a feeling that it would drop below RM5.00 after ex date.

But it didnt go up to that price.

I now have to learn to stop looking at the price as its only going to upset me as it continues to slide.

I didnt expect another downgrade from JPMorgan. Not until next quarter.

Sometimes you really wonder.

JP Morgan Malaysia fund still holding Harta shares:-


Public Bank Bhd.
Malaysia - Finance
9.50%

Malayan Banking Bhd.
Malaysia - Financials
7.00%

CIMB Group Holdings Bhd.
Malaysia - Finance
5.50%

Tenaga Nasional Bhd.
Malaysia - Utilities
5.10%

PETRONAS Chemicals Group Bhd.
Malaysia - Materials
4.70%

Hong Leong Bank Bhd.
Malaysia - Finance
4.30%

MR. D.I.Y. Group (M) Bhd.
Malaysia - Consumer Discretionary
3.20%

Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd.
Malaysia - Consumer Staples
3.10%

Hartalega Holdings Bhd.
Malaysia - Health Care
3.10%

DiGi.Com Bhd
Malaysia - Communication Services
2.90%


see http://www.aastocks.com/en/funds/quote/quote.aspx?funds=1127

Looks like EPF not buying anymore. Keeps selling Harta:-

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 12-Nov-2021 Disposed 688,600
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 11-Nov-2021 Disposed 351,600
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 10-Nov-2021 Disposed 11,600
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 09-Nov-2021 Disposed 398,800
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 03-Nov-2021 Disposed 25,800

Natsuko's comments Google translate

"@Gloves demand will continue to rise, but more orders will be transferred to cheaper Chinese products! Can't beat the Chinese, they can even sell at a loss, no problem! Jpm warned you very early, but I didn’t believe it last year. Believe it now, jpm has certain strength!"

Yes, thats the biggest challenge facing Msian gloves stocks.

Its not demand but supply.

I have learnt to be much more patient at this game and not pull the trigger that fast.

What a roller coaster it has been.

Sorry about being "anxious".

I only started investing last year although I turned 50 this year.

So very much a novice at it. Learning to control my emotions.

Prior to this, I have been very risk adverse and either saved in FD or Amanah Saham.

So the seed money for my investment came from my FD as I was feed up with the measly 2% ++ interest being offered by the banks.

Had a good run until after March or so when Harta started going down.

Being down almost 40% is very painful experience.

Could even be 50% or more if JPM is right.

So only option is the average down and WAIT!

Look at the timing of the JPM's note or the article by the Edge yesterday evening regarding the same. After ex dividend date. Maximum impact.

Looks like below RM5.00 is inevitable now , no thanks to JPM.

All other IBs will surely follow suit and downgrade their TPs.

Last chance to exit was when it was above RM6.00. Now totally stuck.

No choice. I will add slowly at RM5.00 and below.

Hope I am right but already in too deep now.

Hope it finds the bottom sooner than later and rebounds.

We all now live on hope.

Based on last quarters results Harta's dividend next quarter will probably drop by 60% from 35.2 sen to say 14 sen.

Based on today's closing price of 5.45, its about 2.5% return in a quarter which is very good.

So a lot rides in the next quarters results. Hopefully ASPs stabilize by then.

In the next 3 months, the biggest challenge for Harta will probably come from overall market sentiment.

Glove sentiment itself is so beaten down, the most it can go down based on glove sentiment or further drop in ASPs is probably another 10% before the next set of quarterly results.

However if we see a 10% to 20% drop in Wall Street, we may see a similar drop to the Bursa shares including Harta.

Although as we approach window dressing season at year end, that's probably unlikely?

The hardest thing is to do nothing but just wait but I really have no choice.

Unless its really attractive, not worth buying some more as I am already so exposed and have little bullets left.

The dividend payment on Dec 2 will add some bullets, plus the other dividend I've earned this year since owning Harta.

If i didn't have so much Harta shares in my portfolio (45%), the contrarian in my will certainly start picking up at current prices.

Last year I did so buying both Royal Dutch Shell and HSBC as it was falling to 25 year lows.

So now lets all see what happens in the next 3 months.

Should close today at 5.45.

Looks like it needs to drop another 10% before I start buying again.

As with Bang Miskin, I've reached my limit with 45% of my portfolio in Harta but if it goes below RM5.00, I will dive in because I believe that it's worth much more than that.

If I double down on Harta at below RM5.00, 70% of my portfolio will be riding on it.

It's a difficult decision , so I won't be rushing in. Just not yet.

The fun begins tmrow. How low will it go?

I shall be waiting to pick up if it goes under RM5.00.

Otherwise, just sit back

I think that's 50:50.

The next 2 weeks will be crucial.

Jolynce,

"Hold or average up if you are optimistic about the upward trend, sell on strength if you're pessimistic, or do nothing at all if you're unsure."

Excellent, couldn't have put it better.

I am unsure, so I guess do nothing and enjoy dividends.

Definitely will be buying at RM5.00 and below if it gets there. Too good a deal to resists.

But no one knows for sure where the price will go. We are all just betting I guess.

I think the biggest challenge facing Msian glove companies is China and the increased supply from them.

I dont understand Chinese, so I cant make out this video posted by Whocare1982:-

https://youtu.be/IJ4gcspKvTw

But I think it seems to suggest Chinese companies gaining more and more market share in the coming years?

What do you guys think of the projections there?

Foreign labour abuse is probably widespread throughout Malaysia with unscrupulous employers taking advantage of lax enforcement.

It is not limited to the glove industry alone.

Hopefully all this publicity will force the glove industry to buck up on this issue. I believe they can't ignore it anymore.

The positive side is that it will force the Msian glove companies to automate quicker. With the cash they care sitting on , the can afford to do it.

In the long term their reliance of foreign labor will reduce and efficiency improve.

So foreign labor problem may not be an issue for the long term.

I know what you mean, even if I bought at RM5.50, my average would be RM7.25, so not much difference. Agreed.

Jolynce, RM9 + RM5 divide 2 = RM7

So if say I have 30 lots now @ RM9 , I double up another 30 lots @ RM5,
my average for 60 lots becomes RM7.

On Nov 3, Harta reached a high for Nov of 5.97.

It goes ex dividend on Nov 17 (Wed).

So Monday and Tuesday trading will be interesting.

A 5% jump from Fridays closing price could bump up the price to above RM6.00.

That's within range.

However, it's definitely not retail players calling the shots. We are all burnt already.

Well be an interesting next 2 trading days.

11.11 is when it dips to RM5.00. I have my mind set on this number.