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Steel future drop to 3500. Beaware of trade WARRRR... STEEL PRICE will dump 99 li.

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Steel price future drop to 3500 yuan. POWER OF TRADE WAR

Steel price future drop to 3500 yuan. POWER OF TRADE WAR

Posted by Masteel Feb 28, 2018 06:02 PM | Report Abuse


This year full year Masteel realised a gain of exchange 14 million (due to strengthening in ringgit from RM4.4 to RM4.) and write off inventory of 2 million

Both of this item will not be repeated in 2018.

Scenario 1

PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =

Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048

PE 8 =RM0.84
PE 10 =RM1.04

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6

EPS = RM0.1138

PE 8 = 0.91
PE 10 = 1.13

It is deemed fully valued.

I cannot understand why overall payable/borrowing was reduced but having higher finance cost than previous year

Debts to Cash ratio : 20m vs 600m (20 times) - as their trade bill involve late interest payment.

Please bear in mind, it is on optimum capacity now.

Favour/Unfavour Risk
1.Steel price increased further.
2.Volatility of RM/USD

I shared my view and calculation.

I believe in OTB. He did nothing wrong.

Scenario 1
PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =
Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048
PE 8 =RM0.84

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6
EPS = RM0.1138
PE 8 = 0.91

I REPEAT. MASTEEL ONLY WORTH 0.84 - 0.91.

How much do you know about masteel ? Back to your tek seng please. dont be sumseng.

Posted by stockwiser Mar 5, 2018 03:51 PM | Report Abuse

Do you think share price can determine in this way ? Dun act like exert la.

Scenario 1
PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =
Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048
PE 8 =RM0.84

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6
EPS = RM0.1138
PE 8 = 0.91

I REPEAT. MASTEEL ONLY WORTH 0.84 - 0.91.

Because of fear and MASTEEL was fully valued.

Posted by curious2 Mar 5, 2018 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

Why drop 7 sen today?

Alliance Steel (M) Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary from of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Iron and Steel Co Ltd from China, has invested RM4.2 billion to build a modern integrated plant on 710-acre site in Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park. Scheduled to commence it operation in 2017, this plant will produce high carbon steel and H-shaped steel with and annual production capacity of 3.5million tonnes.

Not really. The main reason why Masteel drop becoz the it was fully valued. Fair value RM0.84 - 0.91.

Posted by 4444 Mar 5, 2018 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Got Alliance Steel means bad for Masteel?

Posted by Masteel > Mar 5, 2018 11:42 AM | Report Abuse
Please do not forget about Alliance Steel (M) Sdn Bhd. the biggest producer have yet in full operation. One of the China big investment in Malaysia.

Please do not forget about Alliance Steel (M) Sdn Bhd. the biggest producer have yet in full operation. One of the China big investment in Malaysia.

the reduction in import steel will result over supply in World. Its a big gluttttt coming soon. Overdone.

I repeat 1 more round. Please do not play against the market. Masteel is only worth 0.84 - 0.91. This is the fair value without considering TRUMP effect.

Wanted to know how it was counted. Please refer to my comments earlier. Game over for Masteel.

I have no doubt on Masteel fundamental. It drop basically it was overvalued. Simple is that.

Scenario 1

PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =

Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048

PE 8 =RM0.84
PE 10 =RM1.04

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6

EPS = RM0.1138

PE 8 = 0.91
PE 10 = 1.13

I REPEAT. MASTEEL ONLY WORTH 0.84 - 0.91.

Feb 28, 2018 06:02 PM | Report Abuse

This year full year Masteel realised a gain of exchange 14 million (due to strengthening in ringgit from RM4.4 to RM4.) and write off inventory of 2 million

Both of this item will not be repeated in 2018.

Scenario 1

PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =

Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048

PE 8 =RM0.84
PE 10 =RM1.04

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6

EPS = RM0.1138

PE 8 = 0.91
PE 10 = 1.13

It is deemed fully valued.

I cannot understand why overall payable/borrowing was reduced but having higher finance cost than previous year

Debts to Cash ratio : 20m vs 600m (20 times) - as their trade bill involve late interest payment.

Please bear in mind, it is on optimum capacity now.

Favour/Unfavour Risk
1.Steel price increased further.
2.Volatility of RM/USD

I shared my view and calculation.

LEt me correct you a little bit.

This year full year Masteel realised a gain of exchange 14 million (due to strengthening in ringgit from RM4.4 to RM4.) and write off inventory of 2 million

Both of this item will not be repeated in 2018.

Scenario 1

PBT 70.9m minus 12m (net of gain and write off) =

Adjusted PBT 58.90m
Less 24% Tax = 14.13m
PAT = 44.76m
EPS = RM0.1048

PE 8 =RM0.84
PE 10 =RM1.04

Scenario 2
PAT Q4'18 12.15m x 4 = RM48.6

EPS = RM0.1138

PE 8 = 0.91
PE 10 = 1.13

It is deemed fully valued.

I cannot understand why overall payable/borrowing was reduced but having higher finance cost than previous year

Debts to Cash ratio : 20m vs 600m (20 times) - as their trade bill involve late interest payment.

Please bear in mind, it is on optimum capacity now.

Favour/Unfavour Risk
1.Steel price increased further.
2.Volatility of RM/USD

I shared my view and calculation.

Feb 28, 2018 04:09 PM | Report Abuse

ming Total 4 qr pbt = 70.882m
Assuming tax rate 25%, pat = 53.16m

Eps = 0.124 (base on 427.24m)

Pe8=0.995
Pe9=1.12
Pe10=1.24
28/02/2018 16:09

masteel on

Full capacity now.
Rebar price at 2600-2700


PBT 70mil

one off item.
inventory write off 2mil
forex gain - 14mil

PAT 44mil......

divide 400++ mil shares

if any reversal in USD/ rebar price will have adverse affect.

Why not move to other 3 steel which better ?

Over this 3 quarter... debts didnt reduced.............

cksam :Why am i saying stock price discovery is not the same as 1 + 1 = 2? If it is this simple then all analyst and Investment Banker will come to the same conclusion when calculating a stock's worth. Why every analyst and investment bankers come up with different numbers? Even though most of them use the popular Discounted Cash Flow model?

Satu Horse:Investment bank have their own SOP to perform valuation, cannot simply cakap cakap like you n me. You wrote too much to create trouble yourself.

Let me share with you, keep thing simple with reasonable sense.

I'm wondering whether you really started to invest in 2015.

Well said. Panda.

Just wanted to add some note over here to my dearest CKsam


Cksam: If share price movement is determined by calculating the PE and EPS then there will be no poor investors in Bursa. Who don't know 1 + 1 - 2 ? The problem is price discovery of share price is not that straight forward. There are a lot of factors determine the movement of share price namely earnings, growth prospect and so on.

Satu Horse : Siapa tak tahu u cakap apa o. How to win big and become rich investor depend on how many factors you can see in this particular industry. If you cannot see, then u loss money lo.
If you see dou jo, the congratz lo.

Cksam: The current share price of Masteel is a reflection of previous earnings. Hence the future price of Masteel will be determined by future earnings which we do not know.

Satu Horse :The current share price are reflecting a combination of past and future earnings, shareholder confidence and etc The share price doesn't move far above due uncertainty in financials going to be reported by Management as Financials can always be manipulated.

The rest. I lazy to write.

32M PAT.

TP 2.3 NO CHANGE :O

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THOSE TIGER WHO BOUGHT ON 24 JAN WAITING TO SELL THEIR TICKET . WAHAHA

FYI. SABAH IS SELLING AT 3k per tonne now.

price between between 2.8 - 3.1 is good and healthy

80-90% of seats occupied

THE EXDATE IS VERY INTERESTING. WAHAAHAHHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAH....

VALUABLE INFO OBTAINED. THIS EGM REALLY WORTH TO ATTEND

SABAH STEEL GONE UP TO RM3000 per tonne.

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WAIT TO RECEIVE ANG PAO FROM MASTEEL. HAPPY CNY!

BUY BEFORE TOO LATE. THOSE ATTENDED EMG WILL KNOW.

HOPE TO RECEIVE BIG ANG PAO FROM MASTEEL BEFORE NEW YEAR

Aslm.well done. Here a little bit to add-on,you have omitted the tax expenditure.

look properly the chart among all four KING KONG steel co. U will know the market confident on which counter more and which to enter.

Sell and stay away from steel if you feel fear. Buy if confident. Dont waste your valuable time here and as other for advise.

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passby.

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DUN SPREAD THE NEWS SO FAST LA. NANTI I CANNOT COLLECT HOW O. I HAVENT PLY ALL IN GEH LEH.

Any price below RM1.38 is good to collect. Once again thanks for Mr.OTB valuable comments. Make our trading world different and happier.

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GAS HIKE will not have significant impact bro. The news talking 14% increase = 200million. How much is 200m to the steel industry.

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