Posted by stockwin > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

@ probability
"Expect the net change in Asset (asset - liabilities) to balloon to: RM 2,300,000,000

OCI net asset will be: (1.5 Billion) + 2.3 Billion
= 800 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum :

can you elightened this part of your posting? TQVM

Posted by probability > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

@stockwin,

when you hedge crack spread of gasoline say 12 million barrels in Q1, it means you buy 12 million barrels of crude oil at say 100 USD/brl and sell Gasoline 12 million barrels at 110 USD/brl in futures...with staggered maturity periods...say 2 million barrels per qtr

Now say after Q2 at end of 30th June, if your crack spread for gasoline is closed at 30 USD/brl with crude price 88 USD/brl and gasoline at 118 USD/brl, the OCI will report as per below:

For crude oil bought left at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 88 - 100 USD/brl
= (120 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you sell back the crude bought in futures if the price maintains going forward

For gasoline you sold at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 110 - 118 USD/brl
= (80 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you buy back the gasoline you sold earlier in futures if the price maintains going forward

The net change derivatives in OCI will be:

= (120) + (80)
= (200 million USD)....(1)

The above figure is exactly the same by just seeing the change in crack spread of gasoline as per below:

= 10 million barrels left to mature x (spot crack spread at end of reporting period - hedged crack spread)
= 10 million x ( 30 - 10 )
= (200 million USD)....(2)

........

(1) and (2) shows just by looking at the change in crack spread compared to hedged values, you can determine the change in liabilities...or net asset..

Posted by probability > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

i meant: as it was reported in Q1

Posted by probability > Oct 1, 2022 4:18 PM | Report Abuse X

at least 90% of the hedging instruments has to be gasoline, else OCI figures cannot be as it was reported in Q2 as the diesel and jet fuel crack had exploded by then...

Posted by UlarSawa > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Rm 6 plus referee not at here how to ask. You pun never ask mah. Siapa ada asked. Ingat pun dunno what to ask lah. You only know rm3.00 in the making after QR keluar also lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Aiyoo only now supporter want question probability BS calculation

Should’ve question when price still high rm6++..now too late alrdy leh

1 minute ago

Posted by probability > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

To simplify, HY had hedged 16 million barrels of Gasoline with staggered maturity up till 2024 at USD 10/brl avg

as of Q2 closing 30/06/2022, the crack spread for gasoline had exploded to 31 USD/brl

the loss in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 31 - 10) USD/brl
= 336 million USD ( MYR 1.5 billion at exch 4.5) net Liability!


as of Q3 closing 30/09/2022, the crack spread had collapsed to 1.65 USD/brl

the gain in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 10 - 1.65) USD/brl
= 134 million USD ( MYR 614 billion at exch 4.6) net Asset!


So the change in net asset between Q2 and Q3 is 2.1 billion rise!
...........................................................

estimated higher as in Q2 itself they would have hedged the gasoline at higher margin than 10 USD/brl possibly raising the avg to 14USD/brl from market opportunity of 31 USD/brl during Q2

Posted by UlarSawa > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Sifu ada cakap Q2 ada alot of hedging loss pun kena kutuk and many sinkalan cakap sifu dunno anything about HY at all. After QR out semua pun sinkalan at here lah. Sifu pun malas mau come here pasal Sifu pun know you all sure cakap Sifu sinkakan lah. Now proven you all sinkalan more than Sifu lah. Siapa dulu cakap Sifu sinkalan one you know who you are lah. Siapa ada kutuk Sifu one boleh raise your hand kah. Ular want to know lah. Siapa kutuk sifu before one. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by probability > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

let us wait for the crack spread to collapse and russian sanction to begin in 2 months..

while that happens, lets admire the below...

....

Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 43.6/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 995 million MYR ....


PBT = 915 million
PAT = 695 million
EPS = 2.32

Posted by probability > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Other comprehensive income (OCI) for Q3 results:
.........................................

31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/06/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

.....................

As of yesterday's closing:

30/09/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 43.661
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 26.560

Expect the net change in Asset (asset - liabilities) to balloon to: RM 2,300,000,000

OCI net asset will be: (1.5 Billion) + 2.3 Billion
= 800 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum
(before even considering earnings for Q3)

Posted by qqq3333 > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

don't delete this.....will need this in 2 months

Posted by probability > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

noted sir

Posted by qqq3333 > Oct 1, 2022 5:41 PM | Report Abuse

don't delete this.....will need this in 2 months

Posted by qqq3333 > 2 hours ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Posted by kingoftradings > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse
Otb, study tahi pampers john, probability zero gang all holland
-----------
gemfinder, why someone attacks you and calls you whole family harm Kar charn in every posting you posted ?
Because of your bad mouth.
Continue to attack everyone here until your account is suspended.
This person will continue to attack you and you feel very proud.
That is the reason you are a failure in share investment.

I can afford to lose all money in Hengyuan, continue to attack me, I will never reply you because the worst I treat it as a write off only.

Did I attack you ?
Please be more gentleman, you will feel better.
You will continue to get curse if you do not stop your attack on everyone in I3.

Posted by OTB > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > 13 minutes ago | Report Abuse
I do apologise for my bad jokes in poor taste
:)

OTB

Posted by i3lurker > 50 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Best to get 1,000 OTB Wotai Macai to curse Hibiscus everyday
-------------
Answer :
I will not allow my subscribers to do it because there are many innocent or poor investors bought this share.
I do not want to cause any damage to all innocent investors.
To me it is a sin, all hard work and effort also cannot wash away this sin.
I have my co
de of ethic and I strictly adhere to it.
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
Thank you.
---------------
Posted by i3lurker > 13 minutes ago | Report Abuse
24/7 Cursing HRC just stopped today
still got trillions of accumulated curses against HRC in bank balance
now all old curses against HRC must be used up and worked off while HRC drops
-------------
Please stop your attack if you do not want to buy Hengyuan.
No point to talk bad about Hengyuan.
I have my high regards on you, I hope you do not join the shameless liar group.
Thank you.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2 hours ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2 hours ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2 hours ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

MM... and you shouting is actually sharing idea or opinion. you have never set foot in a refinery and want to project as if you are pro in refinery business? Haiya.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Ular was wondering why sifu said MM is not a refinery man. Only baca buku oil man kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

probability, may I add one more thing for your info. HY don't use Brent crude which are selling at a premium. Hope that would give you some idea of whatever spread some people are calculating. That's it and will no longer comment on this. Best of luck. cheers.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hahaha... whatever lah MM. let the reader gauge. not for me to judge who has better understanding of oil business. I not sonego want to judge myself. anyway, I am no expert even having involve in oil business for 3 decades Nia. Wakaka.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

One last statement... refiner process more, what happen? surplus in product which will make the product cheaper and thus contribute to even less spread. lagi cepat chap lap. Wakaka.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

you can go and ask any friend in refinery lah. if the spread become too thin, will the refinery still be processing at maximum capacity or not. that... my friend... is the real scenario.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

now, we come back to the original topic. hengyuan... I would say they are not the best but there is an opportunity for trading. see... I say trading and not investing Hor. so be careful with that. if one want to invest, I would believe Petron would be a better choice. at least they don't need to send money back to their motherland. ada faham BOH? Haiya.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

Precisely. and what is the cost of producing the oil? free meh? you think producer can survive if the oil is selling around USD13/bbls? they will close their tap. same as refineries. low spread, they do maintenance, shutdown or better known as turnaround. Haiya.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

I have mentioned before... on this planet earth, the processing capacity or license to refine oil is around 88m barrels per day. you think this planet earth need 88m bbls per day or not? the refineries also can influence the oil price by processing more or less lah wei. not just the producer. sigh.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

That is why I said, you don't have any real idea of oil business lah. just because you read the book titled Oil business for dummies, does not make you an expert loh. Haiya.

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

2 months ago | Report Abuse

talk to you also sai hei. just because you read some book titled Oil Business for Dummies, you can claim yourself as expert. you ask any oilman that has 40 years experience also dare not claim themselves as expert lah wei. Haiya.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Ular wondering siapa kutuk Sifu until he gave up want to come here again leh. Must be someone selalu claimed he is an eggspurt in oil lah. Siapa tu. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by stockwin > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

@ probability

TQ for the explaination.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Stock market is a money game.
The whole world stock markets are in bear markets now.
You can continue to attack the share price of Hengyuan to drop, the price of Hengyuan may drop because overall market sentiments in the world are bad.
It does not mean that you are very good and accurate in your prediction.

Very important at the end of the day, are you the winner in this stock market ?
Do not make any money in this bear market ?

Do you have a lot of money to buy and hold the stock to win when the stock market is bullish again ?
Always remember, a bear market may be an opportunity to buy the shares cheap.
If you can afford to buy and hold, nothing to worry.
But you must buy good fundamental stocks. The chance for the share price to rebound is very high if the stock is a good fundamental stock.
You will win when the stock market is bullish again.

We have the same experience in the US stock markets in 2008 due to high inflation.
The share price dropped for 14 months from 2008 until early 2009.
You might remember the Great Recession which bottomed in early 2009.

One year later the S&P was up more than +70%. Within 2 years it was up nearly +100%. And in little more than 12 years it boomed more than +500%.

Bear markets average only 9.6 months. Bulls average more than 3X as long.
Thank you.

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Ppl nowadays dont hold stock long term leh. All want fast money leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Ular dunno sifu talking to who leh. Thats why repost sifu post at here lah. Siapa sifu talking to. Ular want to know only. Haiyoh. Boleh?

probability

@ular, what happened to you? all this postings like no meaning...

what u are trying to convey...?

6 minutes ago

Posted by sharemarket21 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

It's 4.21 and factual. Bash all you want especially those who made strong comments repeatedly about the share price performance from 7 to 4. If you cannot accept the backfire then dont comment garbage in public. Do private room or PM and keep all your nonsense there. The same to the other side, get lost if this thing back to 6 or 7 above one day. That's how it works here. Play by the rules. It doesn't matter whether it's through yelling, nice and gentle scamming, nonsense figures or spitting out the next day. The current share price determine who is the biggest fool in stock investment and this room. It's rather too late now. Chances are quite slim. Must cash out every quick spike. Gloves and steel sector are not a good lesson for all ? Massive paper losses and no signs of making back.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Reveal your ID and only we can communicate properly. You are one of the highly educated commenter here but flopped big time. That's all you can do for now. Ghost spamming.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

And dont stop the cussing postings. I Iook up highly on your determination. Stop being lazy and do your work now.

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Haiyoh. Post removed why again. Siapa punya kerja ni. Is this the only way to silent orang kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Post removed.Why?

1 hour ago


MoneyMakers

Post removed.Why?

1 hour ago


MoneyMakers

Post removed.Why?

1 hour ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Even youself also not reveal your own name leh. Uncle Koon Sifu OTB only so far reveal real name leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


sharemarket21

Reveal your ID and only we can communicate properly. You are one of the highly educated commenter here but flopped big time. That's all you can do for now. Ghost spamming.

16 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Ular try very long already lah. No point begging them lah. Even I3 also cant do anything also lah. Kpkb also no use mah. Haiyoh. Correct?


sharemarket21

And dont stop the cussing postings. I Iook up highly on your determination. Stop being lazy and do your work now.

15 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

You mean those TP wrongly cannot appear at here anymore kah. Mana punya rules and regulations leh. Referee pun never set such rules leh. When you become referee one. Ada lesen one kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


sharemarket21

It's 4.21 and factual. Bash all you want especially those who made strong comments repeatedly about the share price performance from 7 to 4. If you cannot accept the backfire then dont comment garbage in public. Do private room or PM and keep all your nonsense there. The same to the other side, get lost if this thing back to 6 or 7 above one day. That's how it works here. Play by the rules. It doesn't matter whether it's through yelling, nice and gentle scamming, nonsense figures or spitting out the next day. The current share price determine who is the biggest fool in stock investment and this room. It's rather too late now. Chances are quite slim. Must cash out every quick spike. Gloves and steel sector are not a good lesson for all ? Massive paper losses and no signs of making back.

40 minutes ago

Posted by qqq7777 > 54 minutes ago | Report Abuse

money game? what is a money game? u have this thing at 10 from 2017 see got money game or not.

Posted by qqq7777 > 52 minutes ago | Report Abuse

the cafe boss don't like penkritic

Posted by qqq7777 > 50 minutes ago | Report Abuse

money game.....this thing go to 6 u break even if u got at 6................what money game? guarantee cannot go to 3 meh?

Posted by sharemarket21 > 49 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Understand and read properly. Own regular ID is good enough already. Wrong must be bashed. Why defend? Dont do two head things dude.

Posted by qqq7777 > 48 minutes ago | Report Abuse

money game......... when u got lots of money and wrong from 7 to 4, a lot of money become small money.

Posted by UlarSawa > 47 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Not say cannot go to rm3. If more are selling then can lah. But ada orang collecting then not easy lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq7777

money game.....this thing go to 6 u break even if u got at 6................what money game? guarantee cannot go to 3 meh?

1 minute ago

Posted by qqq7777 > 46 minutes ago | Report Abuse

u mean otb is cafe boss ?

Posted by UlarSawa > 35 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Sifu OTB takda own cafe internet lah. Maybe his subscriber lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq7777

u mean otb is cafe boss ?

10 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 34 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Regular ID also not real ID lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

sharemarket21

Understand and read properly. Own regular ID is good enough already. Wrong must be bashed. Why defend? Dont do two head things dude.

14 minutes ago

Posted by qqq7777 > 25 minutes ago | Report Abuse

remember PSA? when PSA writes convincing stuffs, immediately banned.................... when I abandon lepak mode and write serious stuffs, I immediately banned.

Posted by qqq7777FcuKownMother > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

qqq7777 = qqq3333 = qqq2222 or other similar names. qqq is a macai of KOON CHOY YIN @ KYY. Better watch out when cycling.Easier to knock down a cyclist via an accident and get away lightly rather than pay 15 k to send qqq3333 to hospital

Posted by UlarSawa > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

You kena marked mah. PSA also say something too harsh kah. Thats why kena post removed why kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq7777

remember PSA? when PSA writes convincing stuffs, immediately banned.................... when I abandon lepak mode and write serious stuffs, I immediately banned.

17 minutes ago