wao, hibiscus volume is so so low today.

QR will only come out end of of august la....

Ok, hibiscus just back to his old self again. Green on opening, red on closing. Haha

It is related to oil price...Yemen wanna resume oil export about 2 weeks ago, causing oil price plunged like crazy.
Now yemen got internal problem, then means cupply is short again.

Oil price might rally again, perhaps.

So many news on O&G industry recently (Dayang, Velesto, Barakah awarded new contracts, Singapore offshore & marine seeing recovery).
O&G start getting into publics' eyes.
Hibiscus, time to show her proxy on O&G industry recovery.

Not bad, thought it will only close at 97.5 today. Slow and steady is fine.

Haha, true. suddenly a lot people comments. But the volume of hibiscus not yet recover though

haha, as long as it close higher then happy enough already.
Plus steady upwards is much better and preferable.

by the way, with low volume and price is up steadily.
Looks like a pretty good trend

Almost can reach RM 1, but dragged back so fast. haha
Ordinary hibiscus style, morning geng geng then afterwards dragged back.

Ok, so i just go and check hibiscus's investors' slides again.
Drilling start early of june and entire campaign will last for 2 months (guess they are assuming smooth butter operation here).
So the campaign will only finish in Aug provided no hiccups during drilling.
And to bring the well onto production, guess it will only start on around sep-oct.

Lol, why will u care when the well is spudded?
What we care is what is the result after the well drilled (how many oil per day, water cut % etc)
Imagine if other international oil company (Shell, Exxon) announce when well spudded, how many announcement they made per month just to inform that.

The capital paid for North Sabah is paid in few tranches....So how come the rate is still below 4 at 90mil.....
Moneymore, new well drilled need few months to allowed it to get into production.....Not just drilled then minyak come out, need hook up to production line etc, etc.
And it never mention when it start drill, Can be early june or can be end of june. Spend a month to drill a well, normal what....

Profitgrow, already with this stock one year plus.
Just simply assume everybody is short sighted is not a good practice

By the way, surprise hibiscus closing green despite bad market sentiment. Keep on going slowly is much much better

Qwertyuiop, we didnt say bad about him and yes, impressed by his buy call at 20c. But his estimation is often too good to be true.

Paperplane sifu, just take a pinch of salt on donovan's analysis.
All too rosy and flowery for all his analysis.

https://donovan-ang.blogspot.com/2018/07/light-crude-oil-26-july-2018-thursday.html

Donovan's prediction on crude oil.
Hmm, not a really a fans of TA/MA, but well just for sharing

zulkefli is some investment guys i guess coz not much info can get. But for sure his is not one of the BOD.
ceased to be substantial shareholder on around april (<5%).

So is he selling or is he still holing hibiscus shares, we dont know as he no longer need to filed in bursa

Hmm, looks like will be another quiet day for hibiscus. The main market theme is kyy today.

WC volume is almost same as mother, so it is not that high. Usually it is almost double the volume of mother

nowadays, sector goreng just last a day or tow. Furniture also kena, construction also kena and o&g stock even obvious.

Dont forget foreign funds still selling

By the way, O&G sector play really short.
All other o&g stock also start dragged back already

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/teoct_blog/166815.jsp

Good article on hibiscus which worth your time to read and study.

Great article, really in depth analysis to hibiscus and its' potential earning.

Something to highlight is oil from north sabah is traded at a premium price than brent.

Seems like it is o&g sector play today.
And hibiscus is kind of lagging behind...sigh

hibiscus is operator, not supplier or service provider.....So no contract la.
They mainly give contracts to others : rig, vessel, maintenance, FPSO etc etc

haha, what to do. People is still not confidence in rising in crude oil price (and recently so many story again between trump and iran and opec).
By the way, maybe they know the earning potential but dont wan to give high PE perhaps.

I still saw a lot of post on O&G malaysia bad because no contract blah blah. So it is just goreng-goreng for the temporarily upswing
But hibiscus dont need contract...but being dragged into the bad perception, lol.

haha, we are not trying to choose a winner here but to share our opinions and also views on hibiscus' potential.

Anyway, we dont need to be exact (we wont know till we have coming QR out), we need a range. And majority talking about 250 mil at least, and giving PE of single digit 5-7 perhaps?

By the way, aint sure if someone from hibiscus internal will see this. Coz they did closely monitor this I3 forum, where they issue a notice of claiming that the "Pereira" in I3 is not real one.

@Newbie8080, 100 mil is way too low. Wonder how you extract that as anasuria alone can contribute close to that.
75 mil seems high but i still expect that as i dont think the cost for coming quarter will be high unless some one off/ surprise expenses popped out again.

Thanks for sharing JayC, your calculation is more from macro/gross calculation side.
Cost for both anasuria and north hibiscus being clouded by the recent QR due to a lot of one off matter, some due to north sabah acquisition and also some portion come from recent side track on anasuria.

So cost wise, anasuria suppose to be leaner than recent quarters. and from that it could actually boost the core profit even better.
And yes, north sabah is even lower cost and can expect hibiscus can make it even leaner compare to shell.

So it is increasing production and one side and reducing cost the other side.

no choice, no volume. It has been some time didnt see hibiscus appear on top active stocks

JayC, fair enough for your calculation.
NP 260m is conservative but always good with more margin of safety.

Well, how many PE market want to give is hard to tell.
But with single digit PE is really a undervalue stock for me.

OrlandoOIL, from what i understand is cost recovery + profit oil for hibiscus portion (5500bbl).
That is the reason why i deduct out the opex cost for it from the oil sold profits.
Anyway, do correct me if i am wrong.

Ya, i do saw most of the people here get PE in single digit with current price.
So i wonder on how newbie8080 get PE 15 with current price.
Maybe my calculation has flaws and would like to know where and which

Newbie, not sure how u get to the PE of of 15. Please show us how, so we could learn and share.

If calculated based on JayC's susggestion of using 0.28 profit margin as used by DBS.
Entire year of profit will be 300 million. PE showing a single digit from 5 to 6.

And some point that could cause the calculation vary:
1. DBS margin is based on oil price range of 60~65 usd/bbl. (But still i use it so to act as safety margin)
2. Oil obtained from north sabah lower than originally predicted of 7000bbl.
3. The cost for entire quarter 135million is actually including a lot of one off item (Admin fees for acquisition, rig write off, some amortization etc)
4. Hibiscus cost saving is actually really good, and shell is actually one of the high OPEX oil company due to its higher standard. Hence cost saving on north sabah is definitely will be happening.

PE for exxon, shell etc are all around PE 15 to 20.
Of course we dont try to compare here. But with single digit PE, it is still attractive for me, especially O&G recovery is happening and malaysia O&G is still lagging much behind

nope, looks like just knee jerk effect after other O&G stock up.
Look at the volume, so low compare to others. Hibiscus macam forgotten by public. hahaha

woods and furniture is the recent theme. O&G theme seems not so fast happening yet.
But most people forgot, increase in USD rate will be beneficial to crude oil as well

Tax, is the one that i not particularly familiar with. So, i just stop at PBT. Anyway, if disagree please point out as well.

For cost and expenditure as below: 

1. Cost of sales for North Sabah = 12.47USD/bbl x 5674bbl/day x 92 day x 4 USD/MYR = 26 million 
(Assuming same opex like Q1, same production uptime) 

2. Assuming worst case where all the cost and expenditure are same like Q1 = 109 million 
(Where it should not be the case as we see a lot of one of expenses like acquisition admin fees 22.8 mil, rig impairment written down of 6.7mil, amortisation of equipment of 11.5 mil, and all other stuff of unwinding discount etc of around 6.7 mil, but we are assuming the worst case to be on safe side) 

So with PBT summarize as below: 

Profit before tax = 269 million - 26 million - 109 million = 134 million 
(excluding -ve write off and other operating income)

Newbie, dont really agree with your calculation.

Calculation for revenue as below: 
1. Anasuria : 271047 bbl x 75 Usd/bbl x 4 USD/MYR = 81 million 
(Assuming oil tanker offload volume same as Q1, Brent price can maintained as it is now , and roughly 4 USD/MYR as approximate current rate now, and excluding gas sales revenue as too small) 

2. North Sabah : 586,658 bbl x 80 usd/bbl x 4 Usd/Myr = 188 million 
(North sabah been producing at really good uptime, hence this quarter should will unload twice as like in Q4 2017, Assuming labuan crude trading at premium price of 5 dollar) 

https://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-oil-prices/malaysian-jan-crud... 

So total revenue are around 269 million Myr.

means petronas have to pay extra 20% of tax to each states?
Or the tax that pay to gov, 20% of it will goes into the state?

By the way, @JayC thanks a lot for the tax explanation.
will need to look in and understand further once i got some time.

lol, everyday having the same show. Early morning gap up, then quickly dragged down to red. By the way, volume is really low. Guess everybody just focus on KLCI stocks and ex-gov linked stocks recently.

Agree with JayC and OrlandoOil, it wont affect the individual PSC contract.
If it affects their contract, then all PSC will have to reconsider it is a good busines anymore. Imagine a big retreat of PSC will do what kind of damages to entire O&G industry.
By the way, PSC in malaysia actually not just hibiscus. They are a bunch more, it is just that hibiscus is the only listed company in malaysia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-18/why-investors-in-oil-companies-don-t-care-about-crude-s-collapse

haha, i have been thinking about that as well.
I dont have a firm answer on that, the best guess i can give is based on OPEX/bbl.

Yes, from cost wise, it is easier to include all north sabah production in one single account book.

But, from what i understand on petronas, they keep their revenue,oil selling price and buyer's detail highly confidential.
So, the only way to keep it secret is only allocate certain percentage of oil (37%) to hibiscus, and the remaining recorded in their own account book. Then only they could keep this with them, and hibiscus doing whatever they want to with their allocation.

OrlandoOIL, it should be 5,500 bbl. Please correct me if i was wrong.

From what i understand, the crude oil is allocated at LCOT (around 5500bbl), then only Hibiscus could sold their portion to Trafigura.
Hence they report it as average net oil production and total oil sold is based on the crude oil allocated to Hibiscus.

The oil portion belongs to petronas usually is confidential and will not expose to any partner. Hence what hibiscus will get is about 37% of the total north sabah production (After reduction of loyalty etc).

Which easily 40% of its gross profit goes to petronas/gov

Jayc, hibiscua is entitled for around 5,500bbl as answered in the faq. Anyway, revenue we can estimate easily based on the neet oil barrel allocated to hibiscus, more focus is on the tax part

Anyone have read the recent presentation slides? And on page 43, it explains on the fiscal system on north sabah.
So any tax expert can explain a bit more on it?

Kind of confusing to me though, please correct me if i am wrong:
1. Revenue
Revenue of oil - operating cost (Capex, Opex and abandonment Cess) = Gross profit
Gross profit - 10% of loyalty = remaining 90% of gross profit for hibiscus and petronas
Remaining 90% of gross profit divide by 2 (50% interest) = 45% gross profit left for hibiscus

2. Taxes
Earning before tax - 38% of PITA = 62% of earning before tax left
62% of earning before tax left - supplementary payment (unknown amount or base price) - export duty = nett profit for hibiscus

I am surprise on the tax is actually quite high. and so the tax might actually close to the UK tax percentage actually.