For those who hold airasia shares and not sure to add more - watch this.
For those who are not buying airasia please do not watch (though i bet you will still watch it quietly).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfNlOe90xFs

Gong xi fatt chai.

SSY3 - TF gave hints in Bloomberg interview in Jan that most proceeds will go to dividend and set the expectation. Based on that will be at least 50% payout which translate to 67 sen. Why would a CEO want to tell the whole world about low gearing, he would like to have more cash although then push it to the board? His underlying intention is to say AA does not need the cash and the legitimately lets return most proceed back to shareholders. i would imagine at least 70%-80% (meaning of most) will be payout so to offset his early private placement.. as for us we get 90 sen to RM1. In fact CIMB estimate RM1 payout.

TF proposed private placement in Apr 16 and voluntarily inject huge money into AA @ market price. 2-3 months later he proposed to unlock AAC value. Why would someone do the private placement when he already has plan to sell AAC? The only answer is he already know he will get his cash back from AAC sale though dividend. Will you put $1B to your company without getting anything back? This is all planned and he end up with higher shareholding in AA without need to come up any money. If you agree there will be a big payout of dividend, then buy, if you do not think big dividend is real, don't buy. More unlocking of AA value is coming, IPOs, sale of non core assets. I suspect float in the market is probably only 300m-400m share as 90% are hold by foreign fund + TF + EFP + local funds - check the annual report shareholding. My 2 cents thought.

Coldinvestor - Like the way you do the comparison. I see VS as a better counter because it is growing and in fact growing big and actively looking for grow. RM33m last quarter is due to high initial setup cost - and i anticipated lots of this setup cost is in the "provision" and will get reverse in coming quarter - for example with the removal of foreign levy. The big increase in trade creditors and other creditors are mostly due to "provision" eg not trade creditors. Why would they buy so much from trade creditors when the orders only come in later quarters? Another reason could be they get prepayment from the customer for setting up the new operation/hire 1000 people... all smell good to me. The real profit will come soon. I have faith in the management, they pay 40% dividend each quarter, they look after small investor like us. Just my 2cents.

In this article, TF merely said that December (not Q4) load factor is 90% that means Oct and Nov has a lower load factor <87%. 90% load factor x highest fare (December) x highest KM travelled x More Spend on Food. Do you see Q416 will surpass Q415?
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/09/fernandes-airasia-thrives-on-competition/

I think you should look at Malaysia load factor and not "Group" load factor. Load factor is not best indicator for 4th quarter. In 4th quarter, fare is higher, rpk is higher. Look at Q42015 how much $revenue they have compare to other quarters. RPK is a better indicator compare to load factor as it takes into account number of passenger x KM travelled. The more people it carries and longer distance they travel will translate to higher revenue + higher spend (food and others) x higher fare in Q4.

$54m net profit for Q2 is possible

559m private placement finally completed. http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5324321

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-17/airasia-ceo-on-leasing-unit-sale-china-expansion

The directors and employees exercising ESOS and in large quantity tan before. This is a good sign. Consolidation if any will be short.

upcoming sizable order starting in second financial quarter and not second half. Clearly the analyst was not diligent in reading the announcement.

The current total workforce is about 10000. Malaysia operation is probably 60% of that. Excluding administration, sales and back office worker said 30%, the manufacturing workforce would be around 4000+. Adding 1000+ is a big move and decision which I believe the management know what they are doing. Revenue from Dyson current contract is about 500-600m and with the anticipated incremental orders from Dyson could be around 400-500m, hence total for FY17 (31/7/17) will be 900m - 1000m - the revenue number from goreng_kaki make a lot of sense. I think 5% net margin is a bit low for incremental sales. I am expecting it to be 7-8% i.e. the mid points between the net margin and gross margin.

http://www.waysion.com/blogs/view/automotive-industry-s-demand-for-chip-show-the-strongest-growth/

Automotive demand for semiconductors will jump 50 percent to $15 billion a year by 2020, Chief Executive Officer Simon Segars said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/smartphone-chip-designer-arm-looks-to-car-computing-for-growth