Just keep your wits about you and don’t worry about the share price too much. Market is just there to set prices, we should take advantage of it rather than let the market influence our emotion. Evaluate on demonstrated facts rather than rumors.

Jaya I’m not sure if the LRT will be counted in their order book as the JV is just a project manager, and equity accounting dictates that it will be just a one line entry in their income statement to reflect their management fees.

The latest qr they had was 15 dec. I think they delay probably because they want to include the Finalised LRT contract details in their report to us shareholder, which they said will be finalized on the 12 December 2018. So just wait. And I read somewhere that the LRT contract Will only start contribute to the earnings by FY 2019. So just have patience. We shareholders don’t just buy the company for the sake of one quarter only right. It’s the weight of the company that matters.

I think it is just the December effect, as indicated by management, the sell out probably by US hedge fund for window dressing and taking tax shield from the loss. Real investor should have a time horizon of more than a year. Luck plays a significant role in short term period, business performance will be the ultimate decider.

It is not enough to be contrarian, one had to be right base on facts, not merely to act in opposite of the popular.

I think as investors we need to consider further than 1 quarter. If you have a business yourself, you don't judge it base on just 3 months of results isn't it?

Just an advice: Don't let the market price instruct you what to do, or even what to think of the business. Look at the business; good players focus on the field rather than the scoreboard.

Well I should hope more that the company buys because it increases our holdings without us putting in a dime. There is a ton of reason why people sell; short term trading, uncertainty about the future, industry not in vogue, etc.

Mathematically, calculating instrinsic value is fairly simple, just take the individual net cash flow from now till kingdom come and discount at an appropriate rate. Selecting the right numbers to pluck in requires more thinking in terms of competitive strength and understanding the numbers. But you don't buy when the gap between what you calculate and the price is small. I think Malaysia stock market is still fairly inefficient, which is a fertile hunting ground for us.

For those who are waiting for the "right time" to buy, i quote this from one of the articles by Buffett that is aptly titled: You pay a very high price for a cheery consensus

A second argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn't it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: "Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved," etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.

It just goes to show that alot of participants like to wait for the stock to bottom out, but if one can succesfully time a stock with consistent results over a long time, he will have no need to study the company. I have not heard of such person that can perform in this manner for a long time.

There is no right nor wrong in each person's views on the stock, it just depends on your holding horizon. I just prefer to buy very good business at sensible price, and yet this company has very good ROE and selling at bargain level. This is just the best of both worlds

I think the hurdle that many value investor faced is the psychological factor that caught most offguard. But once you have established that the company you haven chosen has very good prospects and selling at a very attractive price, you just have to wait. I think most people here in BURSA expect to make money instantly, but it does not work that way. Buffett bought The Washington Post in 1970s for what he thinks is a 400M company at 100M, after 1.5 years, the stock continue to drop another 50%. I think at this point most people would comment that he got trapped and value investing don't work. I mean 1.5 years is not a short period to wait and to see a 50% drop in value of your portfolio will make you even more impatient. But shortly after that drop of 50%, the stock went up more than 10x the value he bought. Buffett once said in his annual meeting that the valuation method is not that important as the attitude you have towards the stock market. I still think it is relevant today.

If the naysayers are confident of their thinking, why not profit by shorting this stock?

You are welcome! Actually how this LRT3 project is going to play out can’t be judged on the next quarter, because the revenue recognition I believe is progressive instead of lump sum at the front. I could be wrong because I don’t know how the contract is spelled out. The biggest risk I foresee is the boss, which is 70 years old this year I think. I’m worried if he is to retire, it would deal a big blow to the company because I think the greatest asset of GKent is him.

An interesting side story. Warren Buffett bought The Washington Post stocks in 1970s and he believes the company is selling for 30 cents to the dollar. After 1.5 years, the stock dropped another 25%, seems to be telling him he is wrong. But in the next 10 years, the stock went up 10 times. It just goes to show if you bought a good business, and people around you disagree with you, ignore them. People pay a lot to get a cheery consensus in the stock market.

Btw I can hardly forecast PAT for any company next year or the next quarter for that matter. The price now precludes me from needing to do very detailed analysis. Even if the company stagnates, I think it is still good value.

hi Commonsense, I think either model of the PDP works fine for GKent. I have no idea of the details of the contract so what I say is just speculation. But overall, I think the fixed price model will probably contribute more towards PAT than revenue, and I’m a big fan of profit than revenue. In terms of delaying the project delivery, it could reduce the PAT till 2024, but meanwhile the company could have clinched other projects that would more than compensate the lost of profit from this project alone. Fixed price model could also mean the PDP will need to bear cost overruns, but GKent has a good track record in good budgeting so I will assume it will exercise prudence in this regard. Meanwhile, the PH government just need some time to settle the gov debt. Once it is done, I think malaysia will get more infrastructure projects in the future. Just go and look at population distribution of Malaysia, we will need a lot more rail and houses in the next 5-10 years, and the time to plan for these infrastructure is now.

My car example needs abit more explanation. The assumption is the investor must know the real value of the car. The reason seller that is selling so low may be due to distressed situation, maybe he needs cash urgently, or suddenly did not like Merc and like BMW better, whatever his reason that is not tied with the rational value of the car. But the real investor knows the Merc is worth at least 200k a piece, and now he can buy so much cheaper, why wouldn't he be happy? How to assess a company value is up to the skill of the investor and how much he is willing to put in effort to find out the correct method and research the data. Once the homework is done and you found a stock so undervalued and you are confident on your analysis, then just buy and wait for durian to drop. lol

But if those who can wait short term only and like the thrill of losing money, casino has better entertainment value.

When the business results is good, automatically will have people start noticing and start to chase the price up. Then those shareholders who bought cheap can start to unload. That's why investor should focus on the business result and not the share price. Isn't that simple?

share buy back is not only for supporting the price. actually the more it drop, the better for the company because it can buy back even cheaper. It is as though you are buying a car, last time you can buy 1 Merc for 250k, now got offer 10 same Merc for 50k, you cry or you laugh? If you buy for long term, why do you care downtrend or uptrend. Look at the business. It is like playing football, players look at the field, not the scoreboard.

haha you flatter me, I only know how to be investor, don't know how to run construction business. GKENT management knows how much the company is worth, and is buying back a significant sum of shares. It is like paying 50 cents and get 1 dollar. I like to be associated with this kind of smart management. Remember, short term, market is a voting machine, long term, market is a weighing machine.

I think the management is very wise to buy back shares when price is below intrinsic value. It is very good for those staying shareholder. For those selling, good luck on your next share lol.

Yep, actually it’s better to not even give dividend. Instead use the excess cash to buy back shares or invest in the high return business. How many business in BURSA can earn high ROE and net profit growing at more than 10% CAGR over 9 years? I don’t think business value can change so much in just 1 day after election. Clearly there is a manic depressive Mr market that is looking at short term outlook. Malaysia in 3 years time will still need even more rail transport, more water meters for new homes, more water infrastructure to feed more citizens and business, more hospital to cure the sick, and I think GKent stand to benefit from all these.

Why want to have bonus issue and warrant? you just cut the same cake into more pieces only.

And share buy-back have a more profound effect than the confessed reason of sustaining the price. Share buy back below business value will enhance staying shareholder value in the longer horizon. Actually depressed price is helping the staying shareholder as it gives the company opportunity to buy back shares that is worth 1 dollar by paying 30 cents, and I very much concur with managements that is intelligent enough to manage the capital so effectively.

My thoughts are that the company is still going to do well going forward, since the world trend is to have more interaction between government and its citizen to facilitate economic growth, and MYEG is the pioneer in this frontier, and is doing very well with consistent high ROE from the start. I don't believe the business value, which is fair before GE14 to change so dramatically in so short a period. The manic depressive market will continue to have its mood swing, be it depress or euphoric.

And all the while Malton hold some of the most sought after location in Malaysia. I think that is the moat of this company.

My thoughts are that Real Estate developer companies valuation is abit different from other types of companies. In the manufacturing companies, the book values is usually useless, but in real estate companies, I think it has some value. Afterall, they are representative of buildings. The book value of Malton is what the company has put in to build all these buildings, and base on current price, it is selling at a huge discount. I mean you don't sell your 500k house if you are offered 100k, and all the while we don't see property prices get 80% discount in just few months. But you get these crazy discount at the stock market. Malton right now is about 70% discount. The safety of margin in my view is adequate.

I wonder where are all those doomsayer in the morning? After the clarification hahahahah

lol why the charges in the edge news never mention mastoro consulting company? Misleading. Anyway gov project only consist of 30-40 % of MYEG business. Be greedy when others are fearful

Lol who’s still holding at sub 70 cents? Damn the profits percentage is just out of this world. Haha