Haha chill Harold. You're inviting others to make stupid comments on this page

What you reckon will be the cause of that correction,? N to where do u expect it to correct?

Balls of steel looyee. Next move is up

Blacksnake these are semantics. Palm prices will push tdm up further yes or yes

If you refer to my older post about 1-2 months ago.. Safe to use that and revise by 3-5 sen average

You have a point. But don't forget the mid east demand will come in soon. The Indonesian biodiesel is a big big game changer. That eats up 2.5m MT of palm oil which our Malaysian plantations benefit. . With current prices I may have to revise my earlier projections by 3 cents at least.

No brainer looyee. Have you seen where palm prices are now?

Not a new story. And tdm does not export CPO so the impact to their revenues is like ....a fart in the wind

I err to cuties target. I bought at 67.5 avr and going for the full monty. But no harm trading range between 0.7-0.8 either. That said its a matter of time it breaks out. Palm prices too resilient.

Mr puncture ?

Would you short at current levels, hypothetically speaking?

Too many traders have a hit and run mentality , and loose sight of true value. Hence you get such comments.

To me,factors that may cause further selloffs

I) macro panic.
Ii) devastating q1 results (which is a possibility) as we were hit with shit production and prices.

However if ii) happens i would load up big time as production turns around quick march onwards. Q2 prices shall be supported as ramadhan demand comes in a month early. Worldwide stocks are are drawing down. Did I also mention China and India have yet to buy?

Feels like the weak holders are mostly out IMO. Cant imagine it dropping to 60c. But let's see.

Dont be bothered looyee.diff ppl have different trading mindsets /timeframes when trading

Let's see in 5-6 months time once q2 is announced

Gents,

Why are we talking about 1-2 cents movement?

I just did a simple analysis on tdms fair value by comparing their expected revenue streams versus where they were trading in 2014.

I basically took the palm oil prices x the production volume out of terengganu (published in Malaysian palm oil website) for 2014.

To gauge this years earnings , i take a conservative approach and assume prices will be lower than current by 3% and production lower by 5% versus 2014.

If you ask the big players, they will tell you instead prices will be higher and production unchanged from 2014 (rightfully so).

I indexed the delta between where tdm was trading in 2014.
Below are the concluded fair values (using conservative assimptjons and taking current macros into consideration)

Q1- 73 cents
Q2 - 86 cents
Q3 - 96 cents
Q4 - 85 cents

We are not far away from my assumption values for Q1 so it makes sense that tdm stays lacklustre at 70c.

However Q2 onwards is where the action is. In Q2, production rebounds by 15-20% and prices are higher by 4% vs Q1.
These info is easily available. I invite you to do your homework and challenge my assumptions.

This (and other palm oil counters) could be the trade of the year. U heard it here first.

2640 as we speak

We are at 2625 today only going to go up

1) The biggest consumers, india pakistan, middle east and china are late for coverage and has yet to buy
2) Indonesia has $400M of cash reserves to use local palm into biodiesel
3) Ramadhan comes earlier this year (may-june)
4) weaker ringgit will only be supportive palm oil
5) BMD just had a technical breakout. OI dropped, indicating it was more to shortcovering i/o new longs getting in

Most importantly, in 2014 when TDM hit RM 1 when CPO was at 2600-2800.
Today we are at 0.70/ 2550.

Potential downsides compared to 2014: Macros, and production may be lower by 10%(meaning lower revenues)

In lieu of macros, a more realistic TP should fall within 80-90cent

Gramesquires85, what are your reasons that it would not go higher?

We are at 2580-2600 on the Apr/May contracts. Why can palm oil prices be higher?