I saw somewhere the PBIT contribute by china has reduced to 10-15% while malaysia contribution close to 50% (after umw acquisition)? Meaning china impact is lesser now?

As of 17/1/2025, the total n of sbb or held as treasury against total n of issued shares = 9%

"A listed corporation must not purchase its own shares or hold any of its own shares as treasury
shares if this results in the aggregate of the shares purchased or held exceeding 10% of its total
number of issued shares." - Bursa Maximum limit rule

What would happen after the company hits 10% sbb?

Just to confirm: Yinson need to pay 12.95% to 13.50% annual dividend to RCPS holder from now onwards?
If count as 1B USD, then need to pay dividend of 0.1BUSD/ year or RM450m/ year?
Source: page 11 of 69 of the announcement.

@Bursavulture

Ya, everyone is discussing non Yinson related

Why company dont wait n pare down debt?
I think maybe they have issue paying short term debt?
Btw, the investor values yinson production at RM11b+ (can see at the announcement pg 6)

Yeah, follow investment bank's target price to buy stock.

i wonder if these banks buy their own 'targeted stock'. So many "RECOMMENDED buy" with so many upsides for Yinson. Yet Yinson need to SBB. How ironic

Let YHB = YPOHL
YHB = 8b market cap
Investor inject RM6b
%money injected = 6b/(8b+6b)
= 42.86%
which is almost similar as the % of share sold ~45%
If this 2 figure is so near, can we say the 8b market cap is a fair value?
Cuz the company said they want to unlock values, it implies that the current 8b market cap is undervalue and have more room to grow. But now company decide to sell at the values not unlocked yet.

if there are few to none FPSO project in 1-2 year, we can conclude the invitation of new investor is to solve their near term financial challenge.

YHB market cap: 7.8b
we assume YHB = YPOHL (because majority of co's profit)
Of the 6b from investors, 3.5b is used for "General corporate purposes of the YPOPL Group"
the money given to us YHB holder = 6b-(3.5billion X 45%) = 4.425b (i ignore other small expenses)
Selling 45% of YPOHL for 4.425b
If 100% of YPOHL = 4.425b divide by 45% = 9.83b
comparing to current market cap of 7.8b
There is a difference in 2b = 9.83-7.8b

Previously, they said EBITDA can reach 4.5b in 2026. assuming PAT is 1.5b.
The company just need 2 year profit, then can grow the company equity by 3b (8b current + 3b) = 11b, higher than the current 9.83b

Previously promise EBITDA = 4.6b by 2026
Previously promise no more big investment until cash flow is seen
Now promise will win more FPSO after getting new investors on board>>> so we shall see if they really win many FPSO projects in the coming 1-2 years. FPSO project like Maria, Anna nery, Agogo level

“The strong focus on deliveries will also mean giving big investments a break until ... cash flows are seen,” previously said.

And now... big investment again?

Latest quarter, they shuffle offshore segment to icon and incur a profit>>> 160m one off profit, so this quarter income statement still looks not bad (around 200m profit). exluding forex loss

Issit possible that they face near term financial challenge so in need of cash from investors? why does it seems like some insider leak the news and they are force to suspend the share before coming out with an announcement?

If yinson production were to delist from bursa and list in the US. It will worth 6.75b divide 55% =0.55 12.22b. Assuming no increase in value. Mother conpany will gain appx rm5.5b during the listing. + currently 6.75b myr cash gain from investor. The debt will be gone with yinson production.

Fpso basically = yinson major income. The dilution will leave mother company hold appx 55% of yinson production. So it is like selling 45% of co to investors at 1.5billion usd/rm6.75b. Current yinson as a whole market value is rm7.8b.

if it is a good news, why would the company request to suspend its stock trading?

what is the implication of this news?

Aiya bursa announcement not important lah. EVERY single investor will check advanced info every single day

Ady announce in Bursa today. If it is not necessary, then no need post at all in Bursa.

Thanks Jjohn, at least that is a guess explanation. Appreciate it

It is a good news, why the co didnt announce. I just hope someone here knows. Its fine

Just look at the announcement from their stock brokerage app everyday. Im just curious why the co announce in their homepage but not bursa. Its fine, i cant get any answer i guess.

I said ‘more investor’. Some may invest many stocks and dont have the time to check each stock’s info from time to time.

Bullrun

I mean if post in Bursa, more investor will see. Not everyone camp here or visit Yinson homepage everyday.

Last time fpso maria, they st8 announce on bursa. This time/ atlanta, didnt

Bullrun

I mean bursa announcement.

Jjohnchew, u must be large shareholder of Yinson. U want to push down the price for your own to collect. I know i know

Bursa announcement

I mean post to Bursa.

Wonder why Yinson didnt announce FPSO atlanta first oil

Becuz of fpso atlanta delay, Q32025 will have bad result if nt becuz of one off disposal of Icon. Excluding forex too

With fpso atlanta first oil, 2025 will have steady income stream. Next risk if fpso agogo. If no delay then all is good

Next quarter (Q42025): probably PAT = 150 - 200m/quarter.
increase contribution from Maria (3 months vs 1 month last qtr)
increase contribution from Atlanta
decrease contribution from Anna (reduce stake)
decrease 150m one off disposal to Icon

PAT has deduct finance cost & other cost. the profit is not cash immediately but in the form of receivables (receive in the future, interest rate discounted)

John:

Question: Where is this Loans n Borrowings RM 3.75 billion is b/f From ????
from bonds listed on London stock exchange
source: https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=230076&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

Company borrow money to build. Total borrowing n loan incur.
Finance cost incur
Co use the money to build fpso.
Fpso = finance lease receivable
Finance lease receivable gives finance lease payment.
Finance lease payment is the same as finance cost currently.
U can see it is a circle.

When finance lease payment > finance cost, this is when cash flow is seen.

Yes John, lots of debt u have been showing. But so does the financial lease receivable.

Yes negative free cash flow. Because contract asset, financial lease receiable are not cash yet

What do u mean?

Hoho after financial assets minus financial liabilities recorded at that QR ..then is on the interest rate / interest expenses for simplified …

Simplified:

Company borrow money to build, the finance lease payment is enuf to pay the finance cost. The company able to borrow more to build more. More finance lease receivable to cover the increasing finance cost.

What we need to worry is if the finance cost> finance lease payment. Which isnt now. The cost comes before the income (ie need money to build first). Finance cost will peak first before finance lease payment. When the former decline and the latter peak, that is when cash flow is seen

The finance cost and financial lease payment are the same n have been the same since Q1 2023 (i check till here only).

Even though high loan n borrowing, finance lease receivable also very high. Same pace also. So is fine

What is left = 1367 mil (excess frm atlanta over charter period) + fpso agogo contribution - cost to build (remaining as of current)/operate/ administrative of fpso agogo contribution - loan borrowing related to agogo

Because all loans n borrowing, we contra using all financial asset + opersting fpso

John:

When u calculate the total financial asset + fpso contribution - total loan borrowing = +1367mil (excess)

If u contra these, then they would be no payment of loan (which u deduct using fpso agogo contribution) because u ady paid using the financial asset.

The loss of net investment hedge, sbb are not recurrent/ annually.

Jjohn u refer start 2014.

But significant contribution will be from Agogo/ Maria/ Anna, follow by Atlanta.

Maria n Anna just recently start first oil. Atlanta latest.

So the profit just start very recently to pay back the loan n borrowing.

The financial lease receivable is thr ssme as total loan n borrowing. So we safe to say that company has thr capability to payback all loans?

Cancel off lease receivable w total loan n borrowing. Company still has 3 bil cash now

A = noncurrent (finance lease receivable+contract assets) + current (finance lease receivable+trade,other receivable+current contract)
B (debt) = noncurrent loan & borrowing + current loan & borrowing + current trade n payable

Quarter of year = A vs B
Q42022 (ending Jan2023): 11240m vs 10874m
Q12023: 13003m vs 12591m
Q22023: 14859m vs 13756m
Q32023: 17194m vs 17550m
Q42023: 18992m vs 19228m
Q12024: 20291m vs 19063m
Q22024: 21082m vs 21726m
Q32024: 20978m vs 21007m

Can see that the total (current/non current financial lease receiveable + contract asset) is increasing as the same pace as the total (current & non-current liability)


The cost to build is incurred first. the amount loan n borrowing should peak first before the payment catch up, and eventually outrun.

Waiting for the financial lease payment to outrun the finance cost in the future when FPSO Atlanta contribute + FPSO Agogo contribution. and decreasing loan & borrowing

the finance payment received has been steadily rising at the same time as finance cost

04/2022: finance lease payment 107mil vs finance cost 111mil
07/2022: 134mil vs 133mil
10/2022: 101m vs 161m
01/2023: 151m vs 172m
04/2023: 95m vs 201m (Anna Nery first oil May)
07/2023: 218m vs 202m
10/2023: 318m vs 244m
01/2024: 295m vs 316m
04/2024: 355m vs 372m
07/2024: 319m vs 445m
10/2023: 316m vs 443m (Maria Q first oil early Oct)

The pace of (contract assets + financial lease receivable) (current and non-current) are currently increasing at the same rate as increasing of total loan/borrowing.

The management has been saying multiple times "The strong focus on deliveries will also mean giving big investments a break until these deliverables are met and the start of the cash flows are seen."

in the near future when total contract asset convert to financial lease receivable convert to finance lease payment. Plus, the slow down of loan borrowing and finance lease payment >>> finance cost paid. this will be the start of free cash flow

Yeah, it is a rhetorical question.

John, are u currently shorting Yinson? or u holding Yinson?

will the OMV excise tax come into effect? wouldnt affect perodua, our national car, as well?

@sslee

Where do u get the info yinson EBITDA will reach 1 billion by 2026? Thx

Bullrun18

Yeah, but ytd the dip was sxary though. I top up at 2.46 and it continue to dropped. If it definitely will back to 2.60 (straight forward) ytd drop shud nt be so significant, as many will buy

Bursa vulture:
Today v-shaped ady. I had the same thought as u ytd.

Counters like pchem has great forex loss cuz they report till 30september, time when usd is the strongest. Yinson report till 31st oct, right? Will be less affected?

Would the forex loss great? Reporting period is till 31oct right? The myr has weakened from 1-31oct. The sales of small stake in anna nery will be counted this qr?

fair2play, how does the "married deals" hurt the stock price. is it not done off the market? if it transfer from indirect interest to direct interest. isnt it a sign that the shareholder has confident in the stock?