KLSE (MYR): YINSON (7293)
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Last Price
2.37
Today's Change
-0.02 (0.84%)
Day's Change
2.36 - 2.43
Trading Volume
3,964,800
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 18 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 18 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse
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apple4ver
27 posts
Posted by apple4ver > 19 hours ago | Report Abuse
One of the investment thesis in Yinson is that it is one of the beneficiary of global interest rate decline. With the major capex behind and consistent cash flow moving forward, it should be able to refinance its outstanding loans at a much lower rate. However, Yinson has basically locked-in the rate with RCPS paying 12.95%-14.95%. It would be imprudent for Yinson to justify the rate by comparing it with FPSO mezzanie financing in 2023 during which the rate peaked. Also, Yinson is now re-exposed to risks related to securing new FPSO projects and construction executions. An investor should fervently hope Yinson would not take-on too risky projects in search of higher IRR.
Some back of the paper calculation
Total amount allocated for new FPSO = $784.5m
At 30%/70% equity/debt ratio, new project value = $2,600m ($1.3b per project)
(Number of FPSO limited to 2 due to redemption clause)
Total undiscounted cash flow pa* (assume $180m per $1b cost) = $468m
Operating cash flow, assuming operating margin of 50% = $234m
(Ignore any additional income from $80m new energy projects)
Dividend paid on US$1b RCPS = $139.5m
Additional interest on project loans ($1.8b @9%) = $162m
Total dividend + interest expenses = $301.5m
Net operating cash flow less dividend+interest expenses = -$67.5m
There are plenty of assumption used, so expect a high range of possible outcome. But even then it is clear the project margin is very very tight. All above exclude potential depreciation expenses of $173m (15 years, straight line method). And it is super expensive to spend 14.95% RCPS on new energy project ($80m) or buyback/dividend ($30)or even working capital ($70m).
At RM21.4b in total loans (inclusive perpetual securities), it is RM214m additional income per 1% reduction in interest rate. Paying down another RM1-2b in debt (7% average interest rate) per year will give additional RM100m in profit. That's the benefit of simply doing nothing.