no export market,no export levy charges.

flip flop policy

JAKARTA (April 27): Indonesia widened the scope of its export ban on raw materials for cooking oil to include crude and refined palm oil, among other products, its chief economic minister said on Wednesday, leaving markets in shock over the latest policy reversal.

The announcement flipped the Minister's statement a day earlier, in which he had said the export ban would only cover refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein.

think because of windfall tax plantation market digesting the affected UTD plantation

JAKARTA (April 26): Indonesia will only ban exports of refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein starting from Thursday (April 28), while the ban will not include crude palm oil or other forms of derivative products, senior government official Musdhalifah Machmud said on Tuesday.

most plantation stocks intraday profit taking

commodity multi year rally about to explode...

commodity multi year rally about to explode...

@GLNT ,if indon local cpo price with slight discount compared to international price think still ok la,as exporter can save from high transportation and high export levy charges.levy charges is usd675 (about rm2870).

@GLNT at what price those plantation companies going to sell CPalm oil to domestic market?

sooner indon will lift the export ban to cater the need for global demand .indon account for 60% export global,while Malaysia only 25% .demand from EU will be huge.

Baize calls Indonesia's restriction on palm oil exports a “big deal” but expects it won’t last long. He noted that Indonesia exported 26.87 million metric tons of palm oil in 2021, compared to consuming 15.28 million metric tons domestically.

* innoplant

plus point is TSh has 21% implant interest and With join venture Wilmer

TSh 3 Sabah mills enjoy high palm oil price ,while 4 indon mills will still enjoy profit with price cap without high export levy .

Still, “despite record prices overall, vegetable oil demand remains high because vegetable oils are an essential part of diets in all countries and particularly in countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh”, said John Baize, an independent analyst who also advises the US Soybean Export Council.

Baize calls Indonesia's restriction on palm oil exports a “big deal” but expects it won’t last long. He noted that Indonesia exported 26.87 million metric tons of palm oil in 2021, compared to consuming 15.28 million metric tons domestically.

Hi Calvintenang today Indonesia govern announced total ban on all export of palm oil.TSh has 7 mills,of which 3 mills are located in Sabah,an balance 4 mills are in indon,how would the ban affect the profit of TSH,hope the ban is temporary.

...but existing levy of usd 375 shall apply which my early calculation if rm6000 per tone already factor in .

cpo below 6200 not subject to max levy of usd675 per tone

if TSh fall below the Rm6200 ,profit would be huge

if average cpo is rm6400,tsh would bear additional levy of about rm352 ml for 2022.which would reduce net profit margin...rm4 still achieve by year end based 14x PE

the levy will apply when cpo price reach USD1,500 or about rm6300 to rm6400.,existing levy of rm1573 for cpo below rm6300 stll apply ,meaning reach 6300 coo,addition cost of about usd300 or rm1260 additional in top of usd 375 or rm1573.(already factor on the existing levy)

...above rm6000 per tone average if war prolong till next year which is likely as Russia would no intention to cease fire.

please correct me if my calculation/justification is wrong....

whole of 2021 revenue was rn1188.91ml with rm1.60.45ml net profit (14.25%net profit margin) with average cpo prices rm3570 per tonne.(production cost rm1800 per tonne.)
if average cpo price rm6000 per tone for whole of 2022 based on production 70000 tone quarterly.2022 revenue would be rm1,680 ml..last year rm3570 per tone against cost of production of rm1800 per tonne exactly 1 time the rm1800 per tone and earned a net profit margin 14.25%.this year rm6000 per tone would be 2.3 times the rm1800 cost per tonne.
which would be 32.8%net profit margin for 2022 from revenue rm1,680ml .EPS for 2022 would be rm39.88 plus rm0.0756 (sales of palm land)= rm0.474 EPs for 2022.basd of 14.77 x PE ,TSH price would be rm7 by year end..
sorry if I'm wrong .

qrts result should be out on the 3rd week or early 4th week of May

4th quarter 21 cpo for TSH is rm4345 per tonne. about 60000 tonne FFB net profit 20% from revenue.now 1st quarter 22 CPO above Rm6000 plus,based on RM6400 per tonne ,already surpassed last qrt21 cpo by about rm2000 per tonne.rm2000 is a pure profit

plantation palm oil stock profit easy to calculate as cpo price already there.unlike technology stock mostly base on anticipation.

sales of 2 palm land and one mill profit about RM107 mil.Based on RM6500 per tonne the 1st Quarter,TSH 1st qrt EPS should get RM0.224...TSh coming RM3 is not a dream forc1st art.

SOP,the big one is coming!

all plantation stock already in uptrend mode after broke up with huge volume last week,now just under going profit taking from the last week height.

coming qrts EPS explosive over RM1

tp range btw RM15 - 20

Chong Hoe Leong, a commodities analyst with PIVB, said EU members the Netherlands, Spain and Italy were expected to buy more palm oil as they were “normally the big palm oil countries”.
Brokerage firm UOB Kay Hian said in a note that alongside the EU, countries in Central Asia and the Middle East had also increased palm oil imports.

Malaysian palm oil exports could see a prolonged lift as the Russia-Ukraine war drags on indefinitely, observers say, as the likes of India and the European Union secure alternatives to sunflower and rapeseed oil no longer available from Ukraine.
A prominent geopolitical risk forecaster suggested the conflict – now in its second month – could drag on for 15 years, likening it to the civil strife in Syria.

global food crisis is coming

coming quarter results EPS more than RM1.

foreign fund buying up most of plantation stocks with huge volume today.power up from today onwards

buy SOP to hedge against inflation

buy TSh to hedge against inflation la

Many food producers are already doing this. But global vegetable oil prices were already at an all-time high before the war, and increased demand for other oils – the most common are rapeseed (canola), soybean and palm – is driving up their prices even further. Palm oil is likely to be the main substitute globally as it is the cheapest, says Thomas Alcock at the Technical University of Munich in Germany

all plantation stocks to go north within days!

Russia bans sunflower seed exports, imposes quota on sunoil

Time Engineering used to have a lot of announcements and expansion too.

expansion or capes have to take 2 to 3 years to realise profit.not immediate can lock in expansion of production line profit.

no panic selling

yea SOP is a blue chip stock

the profit of land and factory sales already RM0.075 EPS for coming quarter

this coming Quater result should be above 20 cents EPS,not taking in the profit from the sale of 2 palm land and 1 mill factory

I think all plantation stocks are temporary pull back,minor collection as cease fire stalled,war to resume with tight sunflowers and oil supply to continue

look at physical Palm Oil Price only.Not Cpo future