I guess Bank will be next year's dominant theme as an upfront recovery beneficial and the possibility of NIM increase if interest hike. Technology tide will in moderate-high considered supplying shortage still haven't subsided. Consumers' and REITs plays are also worth noting if the Covid-19 situation does not deteriorate.
Up to 3Q 2021, EPS was 15.97 (FY 2020 was 19.94). 4Q 2020 EPS was 9.40, I expected 4Q performance this year will be better considered more project secured from bullish oil price. If there is the case, FY2021 EPS will be increased and we can expect better dividend yield.
Tenaga is for long-term investment and dividend yield stock. In the next 5 to 10 years (perhaps longer), the green revolution will gear up with reduced consumption of oil and gas and increasing dependence on electricity, especially the EV trends, which most of the countries, including Malaysian, have been given all kinds of incentives to achieve this goal. As the biggest player in this sector, Tenage stands in a very good position to benefit from this movement.
Famous international fund manager Credit Suisse says in its Investment Outlook 2022 report: "We foresee attractive returns from global equities in 2022, with earnings remaining the key driver. We expect equity segments that lagged the global recovery from the pandemic shock to emerge as bright spots alongside industries that benefit from secular growth trends" (STARBIZWEEK, Dec 18, 2021)
It seems like most US investors are not so panicked about inflation and its consequences of the interest rate increase. In the stock market, a lot of knee-jerks and emotional responses from negative news, and most of these are temporary. In the long run, the stock market is on an uptrend. Choose value companies to invest in when they are in discourse prices. Bank and consumer are two sectors direct beneficial from interest hike and inflation situation.
US CPI hit 6.8%, the highest reading in 39 years. But surprisingly 3 US major indexes (Dow, SP500 & Nasqad) are all up! The CEO of Horizon Investment Services Chuck Carlson said: "The markets are always looking forward and perhaps today's reading is indicative of a peak versus a sustained level"; "The markets are more comfortable with fed tightening if it reduces inflation expectations."(Reuters, December 11, 2021)
The White House’s chief medical advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Sunday that early data of Omicron was “encouraging,” but cautioned that more information was needed to fully understand the variant. (CNBC 6/12/21) His statement has been positive to US stock.
Last week, retailers were net buyers of RM395m, local institutions also were net buyers of RM156m. Amid this high volatility market, a lot of retailers and local institutions still have hope in local stock and keep on accumulating good companies at discourse prices. (Warren Buffet motto: greedy when others are fearful)
3/12/21 CPO stands at RM4650 per tonne. According to local famous senior investor Mr. Feng Shineng (Leng Yan), the cost per tonne is around RM1500, so if the CPO price is above 4000, it will be a huge earning for the plantation players.
Increase interest is good for the bank sector. It means their NIM will be up. I guess the Fed will increase the interest first and it will follow by other countries including Malaysia. I guess 2H 2022 most probably the interest rate will move up. Bank earning will increase and may offset the 9% extra prosperity tax.
9M earning shown in EPS is 52.42, an increase of 19% YOY compared to last year (43.98). Just short of 5 sen if compared to FY2020 of 57.66. 4Q sure can achieve EPS above 5 sen (my estimation is about 15-18 sen), if there is the case, this year's div shouldn't be lower than last year (Last year 52 sen). I guess the final div should be around 28-30 sen. Let's see.
When everything is good, where can you get the discount price? When a discount price appeared, are you dare to grab it little by little (after serious analysis in the particular counter), or do you still think that there will be a further discount? It depends on individual interpretation. That is why Warren Buffett says not everyone is suitable to be a stock investor.
Omicron stimulates glove mania (tremendous buy and sell) and contributes to the big earning of Bursa because of the higher high daily ADV. Today ADV shot to 7.97 bil(the best since 17 Nov 2020 which was 8.0 bil), just unbelievable, but in the stock market, there are always a lot of surprises as well as a lot of opportunities (if you are not so pessimistic and do your homework diligently). Today glove, tomorrow maybe tech., next day maybe plantation, and the next day maybe bank, or the whole broad market......
From my observation of the stock market for more than 20 years, one of the unique characters of this market is "CONSENSUS". If most of the investors have the consensus that the future market will be better (definitely many factors lead to this consensus), the market will be in the uptick, on the contrary, when most of the investors have a negative outlook, the market will go south. Whether positive or negative, this is just caused by short-term/current circumstances, but in the long run, the stock market is in an upward trend. in the 1997 crisis, KLCI used to fall into about 200, 25 years later, now it is 1510 (yesterday). Let's refer to the chart below: https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/articleFiles/webarticles/5422/MY/KLCI%20Chart%20v10.pdf
Today ADV shot up to 5.2 bil, the strongest since 27/5/21 (7.3 bil). This was the fourth consecutive day seeing the increase of ADV (24/11: 2.1; 25/11: 2.4; 26/11: 3.48; 29/11: 5.2). If this uptick trend continues, Bursa will more profitable and the share price will follow suit.
I don't think this round impact (because of SA variant Omicron )will be bigger than last year when the Covid-19 first spillover from Wuhan to the whole world. Now the scientists are more confident to cope with this pandemic and the vaccination rate is increasing day by day. Tomorrow and Tuesday may see the panic sell but will very fast reverse back in the coming days. Perhaps last year's pattern will be re-occurred again and most of the retailed investors made money in this situation (Warren Buffett: Be greedy when others are fearful). In my personal view, tech stocks still have the momentum at least until 2nd half of 2022 due to 5G, EV, and digitalization movement. Other recovery themes such as bank, consumer, REITs, etc are also worth noting.
@vcpmaster123 Hahaha, you are really a joker who knows deep in my heart!!! Frankly speaking, I do not know whether it will fall to RM6 or further. As a value investor, I always hope for the best and be prepared for the worst. What I know is now is a good price and I will little by little gather it. If the price goes north, thank God. If it further dips, I will keep on buying. In the end, my average price will be attractive.
Today volume (4.9 bil)and ADVT (3.48 bil) increased further. The best since 12 Oct (5.2/3.6). One good thing about Bursa is, whether people sell or buy, they also earn money. Dec window dressing will further stimulate the volume and ADVT, let's see.
If Bursa can continue to climb above 6.63 (10 SMA), it would be more certain in the upward beat and the next hurdle would be 6.82 (20 SMA). If crosses 6.82, it will challenge 7.00. By that time, it may be the turn of shorter to run away.
From 2006 to 2020 nearly 15 years range, Bursa experienced 5 times of sharp drop in share price due to various reasons (domestic and foreign factors) 1. on 27 Mar 2009: RM 2.29 2. on 24 Jul 2009: RM 3.34 3. on 10 Dec 2010: RM 3.56 4. on 10 Jun 2016: RM 3.91 5. on 20 Mar 2020: RM 4.70 There is a pattern of "Higher Low", meaning each later low was higher than the previous one. And each time after the sharp dip, it will rebound again strongly to the higher price. So this time (at present) if the price doesn't break 2020 lowest at RM4.70, it will rebound faster than last year underpinned by the opening from the lockdown, higher GDP in 2022(5.5-6.5%), and stronger KLCI companies earning from 4Q 2021 and thereafter.