TENAGA NASIONAL BHD

KLSE (MYR): TENAGA (5347)

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Last Price

9.57

Today's Change

+0.04 (0.42%)

Day's Change

9.47 - 9.58

Trading Volume

2,304,200


17 people like this.

12,143 comment(s). Last comment by TreeTopView 2 days ago

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Good. Thanks


Posted by prudentinvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Looks like investors are shying away from the stock market. Maybe people are worried about an impending recession.

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Window dressing time....

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Deekay, it has a long wait. Last minute surge for the last 3 days. See if it can break 9.50 for the year end rally. Looking good. Happy New year to all traders

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Aiyo last day also want to close in red. Happy New Year

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@furball: "is getting 8% return on consistent basis from self investing in the stock market possible or a reasonable expectation?"

Investing is fun. If you do not find it so, better leave it to professionals. As to returns, what you get, ultimately, depends on how the benchmark like FBMKLCI performs over a long-period. And, the index unfortunately has not done well for a while. We achieved our highest point eight years ago, in 2014, and we have been going downhill ever since.

So, could you achieve an 8% annualised return by investing in KLSE? Yes, provided you have the ability to 1) identify (through fundamental analysis) a bunch of reasonably well-run companies that potentially could give consistent performance over a long period of time, say, the next 10 years; and 2) be patient and wait for an opportune time -- i.e. when the price of a stock is well below your estimate of its value -- to invest. Easily said than done.

Let's take Tenaga, as an example. I believe most of us here invested in the stock because it is a monopoly, and we cannot imagine a future where Tenaga doesn't exist. So, in that sense, it is a company with a wide moat. Its management, however, is questionable. (I am damn happy that it got rid of its dimwitted Chairman recently. Hopefully, the new guy, whoever he or she is, would hold the SLT's feet to the fire.) If you had invested in the stock in May 2018, you'd have seen the stock literally halving in value (not inclusive of dividends) over the next four years. But, if you had confidence in the stock, you'd have invested in it every time it hits a new bottom, like earlier in the year, when it tested the RM8 mark twice.

This is the question I ask before I take any position in a stock: "Would I be happy if the price of the stock takes a 20% dip in the next month?" If my answer is a firm YES, then I go ahead and commit my funds to it. If NO, I stay away. Simple.

pang72

45,412 posts

Posted by pang72 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Only AW can rescue the market like this. TQ!

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Hahaha..yes, Kimsua. A long wait indeed.

BLee

663 posts

Posted by BLee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

My investment in 2022 turn negative to positive due to last minute surge of Tenaga. Manage to offload some at RM9.63, TQ Tenaga for the year end bonus..

firehawk

4,600 posts

Posted by firehawk > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Window dressing or reversal of trend? :-)

Ken Chung

66 posts

Posted by Ken Chung > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

there is heavy local fund buying at auction. also heavy selling by small investor after reaching this level 9.63.expect correction then can buy back at lower level. this stock is on uptrend

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I haven't had much of an opportunity to monitor the market or individual stocks over the past two or three weeks but I was able to watch the last couple of hours on Friday before the New Year break. True to form, the Instos were having their own bit of end of year fun with Tenaga.

Mid afternoon when the price was floating around the 9.40 to 9.45 area, along "they" came and sold it down to 9.31, then within minutes it was back up to 9.45 on heavy volume.

Then we had the close at 9.63, with 12 million shares going through in the closing auction!!

If you want to suffer with paranoia and bi polar disorder, then Tenaga is the stock for you....lol!

I tend to agree with @Ken Chung, when he said that he thinks Tenaga is in an uptrend, however if you are thinking of investing it might be prudent to be prepared for endless Fund and Insto games throughout your journey :)
The price will go wherever the major Funds want it to go, with us mere pawns watching and hoping.

I still hold Tenaga as a long term investment and have no plans to sell in the foreseeable future. I have similar thoughts with the bank stocks I currently own and expect to see them and Tenaga slowly progress throughout 2023, as long as there are no serious global financial downturns. Hold and closely monitor are my thoughts for these blue chips throughout 2023.

Happy New Year to all who participate in this thread........and let's hope there are no major calamities throughout the year.

BLee

663 posts

Posted by BLee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Happy New Year 2023 to all who participated in this thread, Tenaga will survive, Calamities or not...Happy Trading

BLee

663 posts

Posted by BLee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Unlike Telephone line, there will be only one power grid in Peninsula, all others need to connect to this Tenaga Grid. Due to this Advantage, Tenaga will survive although with further development of RE...

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Haiz dropped 33cents yesterday. Today up 7 cents

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Just a bit over 1.1 million shorts recorded covered yesterday.
EPF finally back in buying mode for Tenaga.

Who knows, it might actually start to go up in price one day....lol

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

EPF went on a Tenaga spending spree in the last three trading days of 2022.

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 15,745,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 171,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022.
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 3,370,400 shares on 29-Dec-202
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 2,693,600 shares on 28-Dec-2022.

Around 22 million bought in three days, with a value approx. Rm206 million+.

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Good sign, EPF is not here to lose money. I think will test the recent meaningful high of 9.50 for the third time before it can go up any further. Retailers don't have the funds to do it. Only EPF/KWAP or other Inst Buyers. Accumulation phase and bit of shake out before it can go further.

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Agree, KImSua.

The price will always be at the mercy of the big Funds so no point in fighting that. Hopefully they see Tenaga as I do in 2023, with a RM10.xx handle.

Ken Chung

66 posts

Posted by Ken Chung > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

not a bad finishing price. don't think i can buy back to replenish my stock. tenaga still going strong.

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Slowly creeping up

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

3rd time testing the 1 year high of 9.5. Not significant volume but a very good sign IB is slowly accumulating. If buying competition comes expect some quick spike but currently looks like KWAP and EPF is doing the major buying and in control. Very good start of the year.

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Support comes during auction to close at yesterday's closing....looks like 9.50 support level is slowly building up strength. Hopefully.

hunterz86

115 posts

Posted by hunterz86 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

RM10 before cny

troy88

1,677 posts

Posted by troy88 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Slowly climbing back up. Should eventually be back to RM10+ and above..

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No Tenaga liao?

Income

3,951 posts

Posted by Income > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This is for dividenddddd

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hi KimSua, you said....."3rd time testing the 1 year high of 9.5."

It could be possible sometime this upcoming week, particularly if the KLCI can finally break the 1,500 level. I'm slightly positive for the upcoming week for the KLCI to move above 1,500 but less positive about it taking on break points of 1,515 and 1,530.

If the overall market does try to make a marginal forward move this week, then I'd be looking for Tenaga to take on the top B Band of 9.62.

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

We use to have the CNY rally when retailers were a major force in KLSE. Might not happen this year and potential break can only happen during the Q4 earnings report end of Feb. Slow and steady is better compare to the sell down we see during the KWSP withdrawal 1.0/2,0 ....I think too it should break 1500 this week.

James Ng

2,623 posts

Posted by James Ng > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

[转贴] [Video:浅谈TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD, TENAGA, 5347] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/general/2023-01-16-story-h-300999148

Posted by Mr NoNeedToStudy > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

today i bought in so sure continue up to rm12 then sell

M55555

531 posts

Posted by M55555 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No up to RM12 also you sure make from DIV payout.

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

DOSM IPI reported in Jan 11"The Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose by 4.8 per cent in November 2022 after recording an increase of 4.6 per cent last month. The growth was further augmented by Mining and Manufacturing indices which expanded by 6.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively. In the meantime, the Electricity index turned around to record a positive growth of 1.2 per cent during the month."
TNB revenue should be flat , ~19.1-19.2 Bil range . Operation expense will not be any surprise, all depends on the Q4 taxation. Also the receivables numbers depends on how much TNB has receive so far form the gomen commitment, should be positive based on the media reports. Happy Chinese Newy Year

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

KimSua, have you taken a look at the chart over the past week or so?............or are you still boozed up or hungover from CNY festivities? :)

Posted by prudentinvestor > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Tenaga has made really impressive gains over the past 6 months, rising over RM1.50 a share or almost 20% from its lows in July last year. Naysayers who had predicted that it would drop to RM4.50 a share are now keeping their mouth shut.

speakup

19,552 posts

Posted by speakup > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Hmmm not yet recovered to pre COVID pandemic levels. Maybe time to buy

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

TTV, no hungover but not enough sleep :) . Yes the charts looks like a long end of the flag pole. By right if it is an uptrend should break the resistance soon , however volume is really too insignificant. The lower low is getting lower meaning less retailer willing to sell . However if you look at MACD /RSI does not look too promising. Cannot really get a confirmation. Better to wait and see and go fundamentals especially the Q4 results. What say you?

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

I just look at the flag pattern cheat sheet :) , it could a non-directional or a rising wedge (potential drop pattern if cannot break the resistance . However if you look at economics and where is the money going to flow. Things like china reopening , inflation rate is under control(interest rate hike to be dovish), oil price benefiting M'sia economy. I still think is on an uptrend and major analyst are advising to look at recession proof stocks. I am choosing utility, OnG and Telco (for the fact that 5G is only happening this year if gomen don't screw it up again !). Good luck to all , nothing is certain , all boils down to your risk appetite.

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hi KimSua, I'll give an opinion, for what it's worth......rarely any guarantees with Tenaga especially in the past 12 months or so :)

With the steadily increasing tightening of the Bollis, we should be expecting something to give reasonably soon. With the recent slow upward movement since early December, on low volume, my bias is towards an upward move to break the top Bolli Band.

With the quarterly due in about a month's time this may help with the possible move. Along with the quarterly will be the mention of what the Final Dividend will be, I'm not expecting any major surprises there with a guesstimate of around 20 to 22 cents. The ex date for the dividend will probably be March 30, so with that in mind it may also assist with a gradual move upwards in the week's leading up to March 30.

As for the immediate short term, I'd like to see a break upwards of low 9.60's.......a convincing break of 1,500 on the KLCI may help there IF/ WHEN it does eventually break that 1,500 resistance. it's been very stubborn as I thought it would have broke last week but onlu managed to tickle 1,500.

Bottom line, I am slightly hawkish over the next 2 months for Tenaga with an upward bias..... BUT I'd like to see a lot more volume entering the stock if it can break the low 9.60's area.

All the best, KimSua.

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

By the way, did you see the 26% drop in coal overnight? Not too sure what's going on there and if it can be sustained.

speakup

19,552 posts

Posted by speakup > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

wahhhhh! like dat tnb can go rm12

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Thanks KimSua and TTV for insights....

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Looks like it..we have to think where is the IB going to park their money? I think coal price drop is gradual with the mild winter in Europe as they have over hedge causing it to rise unrealistical last qtrly. Dirty energy needs to go and coal is the first to go... They are even bringing back nuclear ...anyway Green energy stuff will continue to confuse me.

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

For the DV, i was hoping it to be on the higher end of the 20s like what this analysis is indicating.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/pricetarget/research/65943

"4QFY22 – Good dividend. Management has guided the earnings for 4QFY22 to be seasonally lower QoQ due to accelerating opex as well as lower contributions from own hydropower generation. We expect core earnings for 4QFY22 to sustain above the RM1bn level, resulting FY22 to achieve RM5.0-5.2bn. Management is confident of concluding at higher end of its dividend payout policy of 30-60% on adjusted net profit for FY22. Back of envelop calculations indicate an attractive 28-30 sen/share for 2HFY22 (vs. 20 sen/share in 1HFY22 and 18 sen/share in 2HFY21)."

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hi Deekay, I take your point from the report you posted, however I'd rather lean towards the conservative side for now when it comes to the upcoming dividend as there are so many moving parts with Tenaga. I'd be very pleasantly surprised with a 30 cent payout but I won't be banking on it yet.

Had it been the end of FY23 and not FY22 I'd have been more confident due to the effects of the the industrial and commercial subsidies being lifted, therefore less reliance on the government mechanisms of timing of the cash replenishments.

But hey, if they want to give me 30 cents then I'll gladly take it :)

Deekay

93 posts

Posted by Deekay > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hahahaha....yup, i'll take it too :D

KimSua

214 posts

Posted by KimSua > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

No worries the funds are playing to move it up slowly. Shake out slowly to get the weak holders to sell. Similar patterns seen in many key counter. Can only hope the no other major events to break this. Minor resistance at 9.50....more consistence volume at least today. Hopefully we see a solid breakout soon.

cwc1981

528 posts

Posted by cwc1981 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Good QR coming?

TreeTopView

1,244 posts

Posted by TreeTopView > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

The low 9.60's area keeps coming up as a breakout point on any Fib. calcs that I do, more specifically 9.62. That has been the case for more than a month now.
With the ever tightening Bollinger Bands, surely something has to break...........and hopefully that will be to the upside.

We continue to sit and wait for a beak of 1,500 on the KLCI, which should provide an updraught for some blue chips like Tenaga and the banks. I certainly hope so, anyway, as the waiting is becoming very tedious!! :)

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