Martianl | Joined since 2016-01-12

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2022-06-22 13:28 | Report Abuse

I heard Mieco is going to close their gebeng plant


2022-06-15 09:31 | Report Abuse

if the company has solid fundamentals then when market is irrationally pricing it low, it will be a great time to buy cheap. that is how Warren buffet got rich. those who keep saying don't buy bcoz of operators, then pray tell what can you buy? according to your twisted logic, no counters can be bought so if you really believe ur own theory, don't bother to invest in listed cos and don't bother to comment here. whenever u comment, u debunk Ur own theories


2022-05-27 14:24 | Report Abuse

a company reporting consistent profit in a tough environment and outperforming its peers. and some ppl still call this a Holland counter. I think it is the commentator that is Holland


2022-04-14 13:06 | Report Abuse

wsrookie why do you say Meico better than hevea and evergreen?


2022-03-08 10:02 | Report Abuse

Overall weakness in world equity market, Msia included. Good chance to accumulate evergreen what's if you are a believer


2022-03-01 09:34 | Report Abuse

whether Jeremy's 80sen or HLIB's 94 sen, evergreen has a lot of upside potential. coupled with potential dividend of 2sen for 2022,that's a dividend yield of 4%. so not only capital appreciation but also dividend yield


2022-02-25 19:12 | Report Abuse

result is out! pretty good!


2021-08-17 16:08 | Report Abuse

you can see from result critical issue is their Thailand is profitable again. Malaysia not profitable now is expected as June totally shutdown


2019-09-01 22:11 | Report Abuse

Kasinathan, which Thailand competitor you say is more solid than evergreen?


2018-06-08 14:13 | Report Abuse

Ya, Hevea dropping selling price of particleboard in Q2. They were reluctant to drop price in Q1, that's why their Q1 particleboard sales was low. But if Q2 drop price also should mean bottomline impacted with margin being squeezed. By right their furniture segment should help in such situations as particleboards are more price sensitive. Hopefully they can resolve their labor issues in their furniture segment.


2018-06-08 13:33 | Report Abuse

Martin99 If you noticed, this qtr EVG has gain from disposal of PPE. From the 2017 annual report, there is asset held for sale which from description there, seems like the land in Masai which became vacant after they move the machines to their other plants. So while EVG has this extraordinary gain, they offset it with goodwill write off so the profit is not distorted by the big gain. Goodwill and deferred tax assets are ticking time bombs as you dont know when auditors will request for them to be written off. So it is a good move to get rid of these time bombs when there are extraordinary profits. After all, goodwill write off is non-cash but the disposal of asset is an incoming cash item. After this write off, you can see the goodwill is now much lower at RM9.6mil compared to RM19.6mil in 2015. Deferred tax asset on the balance sheet also shrunk a lot but if you read the notes in the 2017 annual report, there is actually a lot of deferred tax benefits not taken into the books. This means tax savings in future.

I've mentioned a couple times already but will repeat it again, EVG management is good at what they do compared to Hevea and Mieco.


2018-05-31 09:54 | Report Abuse

Anyone read Mieco's result? Big loss


2018-05-30 11:04 | Report Abuse

1Q result is a bit disappointing if you compare with 4Q17 but is to be expected if you consider the forex level. If you compare EVG result with Hevea, I would say that E's result is a lot more resilient. This I attribute to their better Mgmt. This is not the first time one can see how E's Mgmt can react and respond to unfavourable mrkt situation better than H. Once pb price drop you can see H performance drop like a rock. They still have yet to resolve labor issues even though it has been 3 qtrs since they admit to labor shortage. Do u really need so long a time to hire more workers? Why doesn't E have Labor issues even though E has a bigger operation?


2018-03-24 12:29 | Report Abuse

Mauxi, you are not doing yourself or anyone any favor by repeating baseless and obviously wrong info.I will summarize what I posted before on this same topic of audit committee and 'false accounting'.

Evergreen's group level accounts are audited by a reputable external auditor. Including the auditors of the subsidiaries, there are 3 firms looking at all/parts of the group's accounts. They also engage 3rd party reputable audit firm to be their internal auditor. You can say Evergreen engages 4 audit firms.

The audit comm composition has been changed to better comply with good corporate governance. Henry is founder's grandson (previously Mauxi referred to Henry as founder's son) so he is not an independent director. Hence he excused himself from the AC. Jonathan has been with the group for quite a number of years, hence he might be SEEN as not being independent enough. Hence, he excused himself. Bear in mind that he didnt have to resign and if Evergreen was really trying to be funny with their numbers, wouldnt they have retained a 'friendly' party in the AC? Note that both Henry and Jonathan still sits on the board, ie they did not abandon Evergreen. Jonathan is a lawyer. If there is something funny going on in Evergreen, dont you think he would have resigned from ALL posts? Why take the risk of remaining on the board? Nirmala was brought in to fill out the AC and also to comply with better international practice of having a more gender balanced board composition. The above are all done in accordance with (might even have exceeded) good corporate governance requirements.


2018-03-16 10:22 | Report Abuse

Mauxi...I just taking about facts here ya... first of all, Henry Kuo is not a founder son. He is described as the GRANDSON of the founder. His position is non executive, non independent director. So he is not involved in the day to day running of the company. Not sure how can label him as being incompetent when he is not involved in the operations, be it good or bad results. He resigned from audit committee and remained as a director. I think the reason for that is new corporate governance rules where only INDEPENDENT directors can be in the audit committee. As Henry is related to the Kuo family who runs the show, he is considered non independent so he voluntarily resign in compliance with good corporate governance rules. Lastly, Evergreen brought in Ms Nirmala as an independent director again in accordance with good corporate governance by having 50:50 ratio of independent vs non independent directors ratio PLUS boosting it's ratio of women directors. Again, to me, Evergreen mgmt is showing their integrity and transparency by following good corporate governance guidelines and being a good corporate citizen.


2018-03-07 20:48 | Report Abuse

Really amazed with this Mauxi. So thick skinned! Still dare to come here and claim insider information even though been proving wrong many times in the past.

Which major shareholders scold management? The major shareholders are the founding family members who are also holding the top mgmt positions. You mean they scold themselves ah? The fact that you have multiple personalities shown by your multiple avatars doesn't mean everyone else have split personalities as well.

Also the first time I hear that a profitable company is going bankrupt. I guess in mauxi's world nonsense is the norm.


2018-03-01 09:15 | Report Abuse

For supporters, can see facts & figures being used to justify the position. For haters, cant see much aside from childish words and crude insults.

Value depends on price. Is Evergreen worth RM1? At current market environment, probably not. Is it only worth RM0.5 making market cap of RM450mil? With earnings of RM60mil forecasted for 2018, ABSOLUTELY.

So pls dont bring up history of RM1. If you invested in RM1 and didnt sell off when market condition changed, that's your problem, not Evergreen's management's problem. Their management's job is to make the best of the situation so that the company survives until the cycle turns again and reap the benefit.


2018-02-28 13:23 | Report Abuse

How to say 4Q result is good compared to peer? Like what Henry Tang said, if take out write back of impairment, profit is only RM1.3mil!


2018-02-28 12:50 | Report Abuse

Malatlou..... which one time gain of RM8mil are you talking about? Is that the insurance compensation for their fire? If you take out compensation, you need to take out their losses due to a whole production line sitting there not producing but Evergreen still need to incur the fixed cost for the entire 3Q and 4Q. That big a line, I think just depreciation alone is probably like a RM1mil a month. If add in salary, add in general maintenance costs etc, how much fixed cost incurred every month? If talk about one time issues, then need to take out the deferred tax asset write off of RM7mil in 4Q alone. This is Evergreen mgmt being prudent in recognizing all potential losses first. So you can imagine if there was no fire and no deferred tax impact, Evergreen could easily announce a PAT of RM20mil this quarter! And this Q is where all the negative stuff like USD depreciate, particleboard price war, high log and glue costs all come in.

This shows how resilient Evergreen's earnings are and how their management is able to plan ahead and smooth out their earnings to avoid shocks to the investors.

If you compare with Hevea, sure they announced RM15mil PAT but RM5mil is from deferred tax ADDED IN! This is directly opposite from what Evergreen did by being conservative. If particleboard price war continues, Hevea may not be able to show high enough profit in 2018 and they might then need to write off their deferred tax assets in 2018. They also have additional OTHER INCOME of RM3mil which was not properly explained in the notes. What are these? one off items? More accounting magic like the deferred tax asset creation? Hevea explained away their bad result by focusing on the labor issue on the furniture segment. Ignoring the fact that Hevea's mgmt was not able to resolve the labor issues even after six months, Hevea's 3Q PARTICLEBOARD segment did not do well. Reason given was annual maintenance. In the past, their maintenance never had such a huge impact on their result where particleboard segment PBT dropped from RM11mil in 2Q to RM5mil in 3Q, a drop of more than 50%! In 4Q, we see the PBT is reported at RM8mil but if we take out the mysterious RM3mil in OTHER INCOME, we are left with RM5mil PBT, exactly similar PBT to 3Q. Cannot be due to 'annual maintenance' again right? I think their mgmt has been less than truthful on this because the market is rife with news of particleboard price wars but Hevea has told analysts that they are not affected since they do premium products. From the result, it is clear they are hit as well. I dont blame them for market vulgarities but they should have been honest to admit and come up with ways to smooth out their results like what Evergreen's mgmt did.


2018-02-27 19:32 | Report Abuse

I would say a pretty good 4Q result. Sure it is lower than last year's 4Q by about RM3mil but 4Q2016 benefited from forex gain of RM7mil whereas there is no such paper gain in 4Q2017. Interest expenses is also lower by half. This qtr saw RM strengthening against USD plus many comments about MDF and Particleboard prices falling off the cliff. But if after falling off the cliff Evergreen only suffered some scratches, this means Evergreen's earnings are resilient. They managed to find a way to sustain their profit in such tough times and at such short notice (remember the RM suddenly appreciated so much in so little time).

This result really give me confidence of Evergreen's resilience and show their management can respond to changing environment quickly. This is unlike say Heveaboard who kept bemoaning shortage of workers even though it has been more than 6 months that it happened.


2018-02-13 13:01 | Report Abuse

lizi just saw this in hevea forum. tough time ahead.
12/02/2018 10:41

Hevea has not been truthful about their labour issues. Last Qtr the analysts were caught by surprise as Hevea met them before they announced their 3Q results but mgmt didn't mention about their labour issues. After the analysts made noise, only then mgmt explained and promised it was short term issue and would be resolved soon, with little impact on 4Q. Now singing a different tune already. How to trust mgmt like this?


2018-02-01 11:11 | Report Abuse

To crash8593970308, your own comment a month ago: "conman counter burnt hand last time , unless you have the time to sit and watch the movement of price everyday stay clear there are more than 800 counter why bother with this"

So why ARE you bothering with Evergreen?

Seems like quite a number of commentators here are not taking their own advice but expect others to follow them when they say Evergreen is conman counter la, going to be red so stay far far away la bla bla bla when they themselves keep coming back here and spend time and effort to write multiple comments.


2018-01-20 18:25 | Report Abuse

At 60sen, Evergreen is valued at 500mil. Assuming fair PE of 10x, that means current price is fair if earnings sustained at 50mil or RM12.5m a quarter. In the 3Q evergreen reported 15mil. That's with one of it's MDF line out of action. That line probably still down in 4Q and with USD being even lower than 3Q and weather being worse as well, 4Q should be worse than 3Q. critical factor how much worse off. If can maintain above 10mil then it will mean Evergreen's result is resilient. When the mdf line comes back on line then result should be back to 3Q level. Don't think the high log price is sustainable in the long run as eventually, some users of log will go out of business and demand for log together with its price will drop.

Every business has a cycle. As long as Evergreen can pull through, it will reap the benefits during the up cycle. Those who thinks there are better opportunities or that the bottom is yet to come, just say your piece and then go to your better opportunities. Don't clutter up this forum with repetitive posts.


2017-12-28 17:25 | Report Abuse

It really is quite entertaining to see ppl keep claiming insider news to bash down the stock price. Before the 3Q result came out, one commentator claimed to be ex-staff and said 3Q to be in the red. 3Q turned out to be the best result announced in 2017 so far. Now another claiming insider news saying 4Q will be 'certainly in red'. Hopefully, history repeats itself so that 4Q become just the opposite to the 'insider' news and turn out to be the best Qtrly result in 2017.


2017-12-06 08:20 | Report Abuse

Kuttyravi, don't be too hard on superpanda. He is invested so he has passion for this counter, hence his language. But do consider his points.

Superpanda, regarding your reaction to my post, I never claimed to be an expert and I admit I'm not one. I also admit there is an error in my statement but in my defence, it's more form over matter. Let me explain a bit and also reference to your 6 points:

1. SYF not parent of Mieco.
A: Yes, you are right and I'm wrong. SYF is not parent. SYF and Mieco are however, controlled by the same party so Mieco buying into Great Platform is actually a related party transaction. That's why the owner cannot vote.
2. Mieco is buying Great Platform, subsidiary of SYF, it produce chipboard and medium density fibreboard.
A: I agree with your statement, adding my point above that SYF is a related party to Mieco.
3. The take over not done yet. Schedule on 1QFY18 thru internal fund and borrowings.
A: That's the target date and EGM will be held soon. We are now at end of 2017 so the completion date is not far away. If anyone thinks the acquisition is not a good idea, better vote at the egm.

Mieco's gearing level will go up significantly upon acquiring Great Platform.
4. The take over will enhance Mieco production capacity thus improve earnings.
A: Mieco's earnings likely to improve as Great Platform has been reporting increasing profits. The question is pricing, is the profit worth the price? While Great Platform is profitable, it is not cash generating. SYF is giving continued financial support, resulting in the present amount due to holding company in Great Platform of RM51m. it is likely Mieco will have to give support when it becomes the new parent.

Another point to consider is, what was the PE that Tan Sri paid for his stake in Mieco vs the PE that Mieco is now buying Great Platform from SYF?
5. Buying Great Platform is to enhance its core biz on boards.
A: Yes, a consolidation of all panel board biz controlled by Tan Sri under Mieco.
6. SYF in other hand, is focusing on its property biz, thats main reason for selling.
A: SYF is traditionally a saw mill company


2017-11-30 19:29 | Report Abuse

Look carefully before invest. SYF, the parent of Mieco who took over not too long ago, is injecting its MDF n PB lines into Mieco. The enlarged Mieco will take on a lot of debt post exercise.


2017-11-23 17:45 | Report Abuse

Someone mentioned Mieco here. On one hand, kudos to Mieco for successfully turning around their operation. But a straight comparison with Evergreen is unfair as Mieco is 100% about Particleboard and Evergreen is like 70-80% MDF. MDF and PB are cyclical, as with most other biz. There are good years and bad. Both Mieco and Hevea went through bad patches when PB was not doing well and during those times, MDF was the better industry to be in. Now MDF is in a down cycle so Evergreen is looking a little off.

We cant see exactly how well Evergreen's PB section is doing but we can guess. If you compare their 3Q17 result Malaysia segment with 2Q17 result Malaysia segment, the difference is mostly attributed to their PB coming online. Revenue in 3Q is around RM20mil higher than 2Q. But 3Q we saw USD weaken against RM. Assume MDF revenue decrease by RM5mil. So we can assume RM25mil is revenue from PB plant. Now the profit difference between 3Q and 2Q is huge, at RM10mil. We can see about RM3mil is due to lesser forex loss and and depreciation is RM1mil lower. So we can say RM4mil is not due to PB. That leaves us with RM6mil profit which may or may not be 100% due to PB. Even if I take half of that, say only RM3mil additional profit is from PB, I still get a PBT margin of 12%. If RM4mil is from PB then the PBT margin is 16%. Mieco's PBT margin is 15%. Even at 12%, Evergreen's PB is not too far off from Mieco which I consider exceptional performance as Evergreen's PB plant was just newly commissioned. They can only improve further with experience.

So yes, as a whole, Evergreen may not be at its best now, but I would say their mgmt is top notch based on how quickly they were able to generate profit from a newly start up PB plant. Their MDF mgmt should be equally good if not better. It's just that the external factors such as monsoon season resulting in lesser logs supply and higher log prices are really squeezing their MDF margins. Nonetheless, their MDF is still making a profit and generating a lot of cash.

When Warren Buffet invests in a company, his top criteria is mgmt performance. He understands a biz has its ups and downs but if mgmt is solid, then he will just invest and forget about it as he invests for the long run


2017-09-14 17:07 | Report Abuse

Giantman, are you really ex staff? July and Aug running red, really?? Aug accounts ended not 2 weeks ago, I am not even sure if the existing staff know of Aug results. You even know Sep results even though we are not even half way through Sept. BTW, I hear from EXISTING staff that their particleboard plant is churning out good output volume. I'll keep in mind your comment that Jul & Aug red but Sep will be black.


2017-08-25 08:52 | Report Abuse

Some one mentioned about Msia banning export of rubber wood will threaten Evergreen's production in Thai and Indon. To clarify, Msia ban export of rubberwood SAWNTIMBER. No MDF or PB plants use SAWNTIMBER as raw material. They use rubber wood LOGS, CHIPS or SLABS/OFFCUTS (for PB only). Thai and Indon has a lot more rubber wood than Msia. If anything, Msia would prefer if Indo and Thai can export their wood into Msia. By banning export of SAWNTIMBER, Msia hopes to increase supply of SAWNTIMBER to the domestic furniture makers. Indirectly, this step will reduce competition for rubber wood logs within Msia between sawmillers and MDF makers like EFB as sawmillers have less avenue to market their product. This will eventually benefit companies like Evergreen in terms of rubber wood log supply.

Evergreen has loans outstanding of RM210mil and about RM100mil in cash. So net gearing is RM110mil. If you look at its cashflow statement, it has negative cashflow from working cap of RM79mil but it was a positive working cap changes of RM19m in 2016. This working cap is a timing issue, as long as the general trend is positive and stable, it will come back. Hence, the need for cash buffer. So if you exclude this timing issue of RM79mil, Evergreen's net gearing could have dropped to RM30mil. It's 6-months EBITDA is easily RM50mil. CAPEX spending is drawing to a close so to me, cashflow is definitely not an issue with Evergreen. If working cap swings back in 2H2017, Evergreen might even be in small positive net cash balance. Dont forget it is selling some assets as well.


2016-07-05 17:23 | Report Abuse

About the inventory, Note 13 to the accounts, total inventory is RM218mil. RM81mil is spare parts. RM3mil is felled timber. So you only left with RM134mil of inventories of everything else ranging from raw material like log, methanol & urea (for glue), WIP, finished goods, packing material. RM134mil out of group revenue of RM1bil is under 50days worth of stock. 1.5 months worth of inventory is surely not high.


2016-05-30 12:43 | Report Abuse

Good 1Q result. well done to hevea.


2016-05-24 10:18 | Report Abuse

hissyu2 Why do say EVG increased its debt? Total bank debt in 1Q16 is lower than 4Q15. It has used some long term debt to refinance its short term debts. That's why long term debt increased. This is healthier as the short term debts were used to fund machine purchases earlier on. Machines should be financed by long term debts to better match the machine's cashflow generation ability.


2016-05-20 18:54 | Report Abuse

If one just looks at the result straight up, 1Q2016 IS quite disappointing. But if one looks deeper:

1. 1Q2016 PATAMI is RM20.6mil. That's already deduct out forex loss of RM5.9mil. If add it back, PATAMI before forex is RM26.5mil.
2. 1Q2015 PATAMI is RM20mil. It has forex GAIN of RM2.2mil. So PATAMI before forex is RM17.8mil. So 1Q2016 has seen an improvement of RM8.7mil, almost 50% improvement over 1Q2015.
3. 4Q2015 PATAMI is RM20mil. There is forex loss and impairment loss of RM3.5mil. So PATAMI before forex & impairment is RM23.5mil. I am not following their 4Q2015 announcement. Rather I'm taking their audited accounts for the year, deduct their 1Q to 3Q figures, balancing I assume is 4Q. But even if I use their 4Q2015 announcement figures, their PATAMI before forex & impairment is RM26mil.

No matter how you see it, 1Q2016 is BETTER than 1Q2015 and 4Q2015. It is in fact, better than any quarter of 2015. Bear in mind in 1Q2016, EVG is enjoying lower USD conversion to RM than when it was in 4Q2015 (around 4.3). 1Q2015 USD was around 3.6. In 1Q2016, it was around 4.1, an increase of 14%. But PATAMI before forex in 1Q2016 is 49% higher than 1Q2015.

So EVG has shown resilience in spite of falling USD. I think this quarter shows that EVG is not a pure USD play. Its projects to modernize/automate and reduce cost are bearing fruit. We are only seeing 1 project out of 4 having been completed. The other 3 will only bear fruit by 4thQ2016 and in FY2017.


2016-05-04 08:21 | Report Abuse

Based on their 2015 Annual Report, their cash balance alone is almost sufficient to cover ALL of their liabilities. By end of 1Q2016, their cash pile should exceed their liabilities. Mgmt should really consider committing to a dividend policy. They certainly have the cash. RM20mil capex is nothing, their depreciation is almost RM30mil p.a.


2016-04-27 08:41 | Report Abuse

1MDB stories always have happy ending for export counters like EvG hahahaha......

Hong Leong updated their market outlook due to 'Return of 1MDB Saga'. They have removed Maybank and AirAsia from Top Pick list and replaced them with Unisem and jeng jeng jeng.... Evergreen! Their view is that these two companies have resilience in earnings certainty while benefiting from near-term RM weakening bias.

2ndQ is when EvG's sales ramp up after the quiet that is the pre-furniture fair season in 1Q. If RM weakens now, it is perfect timing for EvG's export sales that is spilled over from March's hold out.


2016-04-15 14:34 | Report Abuse

today suddenly no volume....

News & Blogs

2016-04-14 08:04 | Report Abuse

Yes, export stock but that's not all it has going for it. Hevea is 100% export, EVG is 70%. Hevea is pretty much maxed out in terms of performance but EVG is unlocking earnings potential via 1) heavy capex investment in past bearing fruits now in terms of cost savings 2) restart of 2 plants previously shut down thereby creating a drag to its earnings 3) going downstream into furniture (similar to Hevea) which will create a new income stream and enhance its margins. CIMB is projected PATAMI of RM95m, RM120m and RM150m for FY15,, FY16 and FY17 respectively. EVG met earnings in FY15. Now awaiting 1Q2016 to see how they fare with lower forex compared to 4Q15.

Hevea is not committing to a dividend policy. EVG has committed to a min 25% payout from PAT. At current pricing, EVG is both a growth stock and a decent dividend yield stock. Using FY17 forecast, at 10x PE, EVG has TP of RM1.77 and dividend yield of 4.45%.


2016-04-12 11:05 | Report Abuse

today low volume. volume shifted to hevea?


2016-04-08 11:12 | Report Abuse

huh? Latitude takeover EVG?

They normally announce their 1Q result same day as their AGM. Last year their AGM and 1Q announcement was on 22 May. This year it might be 20 May if they follow pattern of holding it on a Friday.


2016-04-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

USD drop but EVG still up with big volume? Syndicate again? There is really nothing much that has changed aside from USD/RM. Unless like what junyew said, got insider leak....


2016-04-05 08:58 | Report Abuse

win2win, to me, those currency 'experts' hold no water. they are always wrong. When USD was strengthening, some of them predict RM will drop to 4.80. Now when RM strengthening, those same ppl predict RM will go all the way to RM3.50. Each day will have new prediction by a different firm. But these statements will sway traders/speculators. So they will have impact on your investment performance in the short term. EVG benefited earlier from being tagged as a USD beneficiary. So now it needs a strong set of 1Q and 2Q result to shed the perception that USD is all that it has going for it.


2016-04-05 08:44 | Report Abuse

The Arabs dont trust each other to keep their word. Why should the rest of the world think they will honor any commitment to non-opec members?


2016-04-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong Update:

Earnings Visibility Intact
We believe recent sell down in Evergreen’s shares is overdone. We still see earnings growth in Evergreen, underpinned by:
(1) The company’s ongoing cost rationalization exercise, which will result in overhead cost savings, reduced transportation cost, better production efficiency, as well as higher quality products; and
(2) An investment into a new fully-automated RTA furniture line, which will triple its existing production volume and reduce manpower, hence contributing to its earnings from 2H16 onwards.

Against its peers in the Southeast Asia region, Evergreen’s share price underperformed by 10.5-21%-pts YTD, indicating that recent sell down is overdone.

Our valuation has yet to reflect the value of its 4,410 acres of rubber plantation land in Kahang and the industrial land in Masai. We understand that combination of these two non-core assets could potentially fetch selling price of at least RM100m (or 11.6 sen).

 Escalating raw material and labour costs;
 Slower-than-expected demand for MDF;
 Fluctuating foreign currency movement (in particularly the US$); and
 Slower-than-expected turnaround at the particleboard operations.

Forecasts  Maintained.

Rating BUY ()

 Positives –
(1) Attractive valuations with good earnings visibility;
(2) Healthy balance sheet; and
(3) Rubber plantation land bank value has yet to be reflected in current share price valuation.

 Negative – Perceived US$ play.

 Maintain BUY recommendation with unchanged TP or RM1.60 (based on unchanged 11x FY17 core EPS of 14.6 sen).
 Our forecast has already factored in a ringgit forecast of RM4.00/US$ and RM3.80/US$ for FY16 and FY17 respectively.
 We continue to like Evergreen for its strong earnings visibility (underpinned by low key input prices and management’s ongoing efforts to further improve operational efficiencies and product diversification) and decent dividend yield of 3.5%


2016-04-01 16:26 | Report Abuse

wow, crazy USD/MYR today


2016-04-01 16:23 | Report Abuse

andrew, your comparison of RM151m and RM111m and the resulting 26.49% (actually it should be 36% as 40/111 not 40/151) increase means you assume the full RM40m sales increase is due to volume increase and nothing to do with forex even though forex went up from 3.7 to 4.3.


2016-04-01 13:57 | Report Abuse

Hi andrew. I'm really not here to say whether Hevea is good or bad. But like bunny and ezra said, market is boring so what the hey, let's talk.....

If I look at hevea's 2Q2015, revenue was RM111m vs RM151m revenue in 4Q15. That's an increase of RM40m. How much of it is due to forex and how much due to volume sales increase? I dont know. Hahahaha.... But if I may use this method: 2Q15 COS is RM88m, 4Q15 COS is RM109m. So RM21m COS increase I just assume is due to volume increase. Now the GP for 2Q15 is 21%. So applying this on COS means sales increase due to volume should be RM27m (RM21m/79%). So GP increase of RM6m would have came from volume increase. Now GP in 4Q is RM19m higher than GP in 2Q. After minus RM6m, left GP of RM13m that came from increased forex. This RM13m before tax correspond to my earlier post. I dont know if this means my calculation is correct or not but hey, nothing to do now except talk.

My earlier post that ended up with EPS of 3.4sen a quarter is based on Hevea's best Q so far, ie 4Q15 but at lower exchange rate of RM3.80 scenario as first suggested by andrew.

Again, pls note I'm not saying buy or sell hevea, whether hevea good or bad, RM going up or down, Rosmah cantik or not. I'm just here to jabber....


2016-04-01 12:10 | Report Abuse

Hi Hulk. I am not saying whether Hevea is good to invest into or not. I am only looking at effect of forex drop on revenue and profit.

I follow Hevea as I think it had a pretty good turn around from the near-disaster a few years back. But I am not invested in Hevea. I dont know enough about it to commit.


2016-04-01 11:41 | Report Abuse

Today got volume. Looks like Hong Leong's report is well received