target price of 63 sen pegged to a price-to-book ratio (P/B) multiple of 0.85 times based on FY22 book value per share (BVPS) of 72 sen.
“As the raw material supply has returned to a healthy level, we anticipate that HeveaBoard should see sequential improvement in 2QFY22 (second quarter of FY22). This improvement is further bolstered by the increasing particleboard export sales to the Japanese market that fetch a better margin compared to other export markets.
“While we are cognizant that glue cost is increasing following the oil price hike, we understand that the price level is still below its peak in December 2021,” he added.
At 10.31am on Wednesday, HeveaBoard shares gained one sen or 1.9% to 53.5 sen, giving the particleboard manufacturer a market capitalisation of RM300.93 million.
Heveaboard is set to resume its uptrend movement as it climbed above the recent high of MYR0.565 on improved trading volume – marking a new YTD high, after breaching above the MYR0.565 immediate resistance on stronger volume – printing a “higher high” bullish pattern. The uptrend which started on 21 Mar may persist until the stock reaches MYR0.60, before marking the MYR0.64 resistance. Conversely, the stock may reverse direction if it falls below the MYR0.54 support, as it forms a “lower low” bearish structure.
The company has RM120m net cash; take that out from the current market capitalisation, the company is selling for RM130m only. One-year depreciation charge is RM30m, which more than covers for all sorts of capex the company wants to do. So, the company can actually declare all its profits as dividend without affecting its net cash balance of RM120m. It should be able to make at least 3sen net profit per share a year. Potential dividend yield will be very attractive.
Excluding net cash, the company is selling for less than RM100m. Net operating cash flow for 2022 will be at least RM35m. First 2 quarters of 2022 saw it make RM22m operating cash flow. Japan is opening up its tourism again to foreigners, and a stronger economy in Japan bodes well for Hevea. It’s a super-cheap price now for the major shareholders to take the company private.
The Net Cash is not in doubt. Stock price hit peak in 2017 when dividends was also high at 7.7 sen that year paid 4 times a year. Since then, stock price fell in line with dividend drops, from 7.7 down to 1.25 last year when it was paid twice only, and this year, so far 1 time for 1 sen and unclear. Clearly company is conserving monies due to recent losses, so, this company can also lose monies which they need to turnaround. Otherwise, net cash will also go down, dividend goes down, stock price goes down. Nice to see stock price is downtrending, for those with cash and holding power for several years (e.g. 5-10 years) this one deserves to be a part of one's diversified portfolio. 1 sen / 36 sen < 3% dividend yield which is not that attractive relative to FD, but if they want to stabilize the price fall, then, just give another 0.5 sen dividend yield and suddenly, it's a lot better than FD rates and company has much, much more cash to pay 0.5 sen dividend ... the question is will it do so? Next price fall target could be near 30 sen, at this price, I will definitely add more. For long term accumulators, this one is worth the risk, betting that company will turn profitable again, like it has many years prior. Risky for sure, but sleep soundly when it's part of a diversified portfolio.
As a dividend investor, I like the Group decided to give a token 1 sen dividend when it is making losses. The Group has a policy of paying 30% of its Profit After Tax as dividends, so, this company needs to turn around into profits first, before the stock price fall stabilizes. Pretty sure market is watching closely since it's been nearly 2 years now ... the question is will it turn around? What catalysts? And when? because at a low base price, a turnaround will give 100% price gains.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....