Pro palm oil price conditions:

Palm oil is at historical 40% discount to Soybean oil now. Historical average was 20% -25%.

US is reporting drops in both corn and soy yield
https://www.farmforum.net/story/news/columnists/2022/10/17/focus-on-ag-usda-decreases-corn-ending-stocks/69569134007/

Rainfall has been dragging South America planting
https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/10/21/excessive-rainfall-delays-soybean-planting/

Lets wait and see Indonesia extend levy waiver beyond Oct

Lets pray all CPO companies actually sell forward contact @6K in May

When will those forest conccession being unlocked?

Any updates on their timber license.

EWI has the commitment to fund those 3 JV, and their liability is quite high though can be covered by asset. But I cant find detail reporting ...

Is the property segment EWI involved in UK is facing a crunch? as I read the avg selling price has reduce to 600K, which is still above EWI JV avg selling price.

And how about the Btr project thats going to hand over to invesco?

Pain and suffer are usual for monitoring share price movement ...
There are indeed no counter to be look at if suffer from price movement.
Too cheap also pain, share price run up will feel regret.

If the September harvest maintain as of Aug Level, Jtiasa could generate 60~70 million free cash flow.
Jayatiasa current market cap is 470million, That's almost 15% return in one quarter.

Nevertheless, share price is free falling, and market is forward looking.

Jayatiasa in still in net debt position of 330million last quarter, should be denominated in MYR as Annual report FY2021 shows if USD strengthened 5%, will contribute to insignificant improve in profit.

Since India and China is major CPO export market, and MYR seems relatively stable towards both INR and RMB, while USD go up like crazy, would that make China and India reduce import of US soybean?

During the past 5 quarters, current owing by JV is decreasing while non current owings is increasing.
anyone know if the growing non current owings is due to repayment period of current owings extended or new launch of new projects?

The fact the management taking a precautious measure during uncertainty period is a good move. They repay big chunk of foreign debt and 90% debt left is MYR denominated MTN at fix rates, should be more manageble. (though the falling of GBP will affect their bottomline)

100miliion operating cash flow :p

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/foreign-shareholding-cimb-rose-256-july

Bursa said foreign investors' equity accumulations in January to July 2022 were largely concentrated in three sectors.

"Of the RM6.26 billion net inflow from foreign investors between January and July, financial (RM3.5 billion), plantation (RM2.25 billion) and industrial (RM1.88 billion) attracted the highest inflows.

Calvin, I know the numbers, but Jtiasa still havent resolved worker shortage and yet to get the FMU license, yet suburtiasa already obtained it.....

https://forestry.sarawak.gov.my/page-0-0-1242-Forest-Management-Certification.html

The marketforce is monitoring their monthly yield and current price instead of coming qtr report, which already can be calculated.

Anyone adding? how come the Bull and Bear member all vanish all togather? same identity?

Let's see if Qtr result or CPO current price trend will lead the share price ...

Danny, isnt Jtiasa past few qtr result good?

Just Indonesia lifted workers export ban to Msia starting Aug, can Sarawak get the quota?

Here's something interesting.
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/06/25/indonesian-palm-oil-farmers-call-for-removal-of-local-sales-rules

The ban was eventually lifted because of the pain it caused an industry that employs 17 million workers and with farmers complaining the policy had caused FFB prices to plunge 70%.

So won't cutting the levy and lift export curb causes the FFB price to plummet more and make life even more difficult for the small farmers?

It would be nice if Jtiasa just utilized 200mm to par down debt and pay 100million on dividend. that's about 10sen a share.

When are they going to get their approval on timber export?

With last month productionstatistic out, coming quarter Free Cash Flow estimate ~ 100million. pretty good. net debt could be further par down to ~300 million

how come Indonesia shift from export ban to flooding the market in just over a short period?

How long could 75-100% be sustainable? it's kinda hard to imagine that to sustain on commodity.

Also if we factor in rising cost of fertilizer and labour squeeze, what's the real margin for plantation companies?

during pandemic, gloves company orderbook stack up 1 year ahead with prepaid payments, Does the Palm oil company experience such? If the mill has stop taking in FFB from small estate, its highly unlikely.

But the recent run has turn a lot of CPO companies into Net Cash position ... too bad Jtiasa yet to achieve such yet.

I dunno where CPO price will be heading, but I dont think it will get back to 2000 unless oil price crash down to 30usd and supply of edible oil goes up. Usually in inflation scenario, dairy stocks will goes up, like canned food, bread, magenrine, butter, biscuitte, which required vegetable oil to process.

even the CPO price goes up, with labour shortage, its still an issue.

@joyvest how much Free Cash Flow are you projecting annually after CPO price normalised?

CPO avg price for Sarawak close out at 5700.
If June qtr output maintain same as May, The coming Q4 result likely be close to Q2 which generate ~100 million in free cash flow.

Sigh, when can labour issue be resolved... its moving into peak season now.

enterprise value = Market cap - cash + Debt

@speakup What are you still doing here as Koon is not here.

@joyvest, I am not evaluating its land value for development, but against CPO output vs others player

News reported mills are reluctant to buy FFB from plantation estate that sells to them at 6000+ (monthly avg) as the market price crash to 4600+.

Wonder if this would result in shortage, and benefit player who runs both plantation and mill.

Jayatiasa Current Market cap is around 608million, cash 218million , total debt 634mm

Enterprise Value = 608 + 634 - 218 = 1.028Billion

Jayatiasa has 64,022 Hectare (~158,000 acre) of Palm Oil plantation in Prime Age.
Assuming their forestry asset, factory etc worth zero.
So If a generous investor buy the whole Jayatiasa at 1.2B, he will be paying RM7,600 per acre.

How much is agriculture land selling in Sarawak per acre?

@skoh888 it's okay, just want to know how you work out the price of ~RM1.00.

Many people speculate different TP, but it doesnt helps at all. since well managed plantation counter KLK TAANN SOP BPLANT price has all retract significant following the downtrend CPO price.

And after staying in the forum for more than a year, its common when Jtiasa price goes up, all those voice bashing Calvin vanish, when price comes down, the teasing and laughing voice return. But it doesnt help at all, just pure emotional revenge on others, lose-lose for all.

@skoh888 how do you work out how much Jtiasa worth?

https://www.theborneopost.com/2022/05/20/len-talif-forest-management-unit-licensees-can-market-products-globally-without-restrictions/

Anyone speaks to Jayatiasa about progress on obtaining FMU license?

too bad we are too dependant on foreign labour. a hard lesson for the plantation sector... What a waste of planting effort all these years...

The biggest catalyst will be arrival of foreign labour to harvest, Sarawak is facing serious labour shortage.

calvin work hard promoting can be understand, but what motivates some of you guys working so hard demoting without selling any TA classes... hard to understand

@myfuad better go genting, so you can know win/loss in minutes.

Jayatiasa doesnt have so called options or warrants, why it suffers heavy retreat?

Though some say jayatiasa result is lousy, but Jan-March is their seasonal low, yet generate better cash flow compare to 21Sep quarter amidst lower production, thanks to higher CPO price.

so I still cant figure out any valid reason for the 40% drops. What's your view on Jayatiasa and Suburtiasa?

QOQ fall in revenue already expected since the production form Jan-March drops.

There are some factors that could put pressure on Jayatiasa price performance in short term:
1. rising interest rate as their debt is pretty high, thoug their operating cash generated is well enough to service the debt.
2. Russia opens up the corridor for Ukraine export, or Russia sanction lifted.
3. Zuraida's hopping could lead to delay in foreign worker imports and talks with Europe on CPO

Just compare the latest 3 qtr cpo harvested, and the operating cash flow generated.
And compare the trading receivables between Q3 vs Q2, also cash level increase to conclude yourself.

The fact that Indonesia has to lift export ban due to pressure shows the shortage issue in global market.
Even they lift the ban, is it clear if there's quota on export?

Ignore those act of share price prediction, if it works for them, they would have spent their time trading with margin instead of making prediction in forums.

*** correction on my previous post, a big chunk of the cash generated will be use to par down debt and service interest.

The comparison is not based on their market valuation,
but nett debt against revenue & cash flow.
Its just a rough view as I didnt dig through Subur tiasa in detail.

Subur Tiasa debt level almost on Par with Jtiasa, yet generating much less revenue, that means a big chunk of the cash generated will be use to service interest.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2022/04/27/furniture-parks-to-double-sarawak-timber-export-revenue-willie/

Would Jtiasa benefit from this?

Since October, the USDA has been systematically lowering the forecast for global soybean production in the current marketing year. If in October, the forecasts of the USDA allowed for a surplus of almost 9 million tons, but now a deficit of 11 million tons is already expected:

mainly due to worsening outlook for Brazil and Argentina Soy Production.

ignore the noise and the broad market fluctuation. everything is in favor of CPO except labor shortage.

Indonesia just started their export ban last week. hence its likely before the window close, customer stock up as much as possible from Indonesia, lets wait for a week or two for orders pouring into Malaysia.

added some @116, let's wait a few days for indonesia export ban detail to see how far they go.

dont get too excited over Indonesia ban, malaysia may implement the same.

Germany DW wrote an article promoting Palm Oil. It's an indication Europe will start looking at palm oil as a sustainable eco-friendly substitute for sunflower oil, and that will be a long term booster for CPO.

yeah USD0.70

@calvintaneng when its above rm3, is the timber division contributing profit to the company?