Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-27 19:46 | Report Abuse

Raymond

this is a very serious matter

In USA the ganging up of cartels to manipulate prices and stock market manipulation that victimizes innocent investors are offenses punishable by fines by hundreds of millions and jail sentences

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-05-27 22:09 | Report Abuse

you have your point calvin, but its hard to prove these so called sindikets and ib strategy, in order for them to surpress the mother share price, they need to stock up heavily in order to be able to sell, dont tell me they buy and and sell same time !! if they do this then price will stay the same.... so if what you say is true, then u need to prove how it works

Posted by Mabel > 2022-05-28 00:41 | Report Abuse

What Calvin said is correct.. Don't buy Call Warrant..

It's a double edge swords..

Just buy in small number mother shares and accumulate slowly if not enough money.

You get double bonus on capital appreciation and Dividend..

Why want to support IB?

Meow

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 07:14 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 07:32 | Report Abuse

Happy greetings to all who visited this page

7,000 thanks as of 7.30am on this day of 28th May 2022

Posted by Mabel > 2022-05-28 07:47 | Report Abuse

Good Morning Calvin

Absolutely.. Not only we tango in FGV, We also tango in TDM, SOP, TAANN, KLK, SIMEPLT, IOIPLT, TH PLT, BP PLT etc etc..

Now Mabel can goyang kaki oledi..

Yes please avoid Call Warrant. If still want to play warrant go for the company WA warrant..


IB will bites you. Mabel have seen similar strategy by IB in the Gloves industry.

Focus on the mother shares. Don't gamble with call warrant..

Thanks a million Calvin for all your sharing. You are the Real Darling..

To Our Success

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 16:20 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-28 19:01 | Report Abuse

The Issuers do not want the mother shares to go down.
In fact they want the mother share to go up, the higher the better.

They are not gambler, they want sure win.
The time they sell call warrants, there are mother shares in their hand to hedge against it.

Please ask some one who has worked in Investment Banks.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 19:21 | Report Abuse

i3gambler

if they really want the mother shares to go up then when Tsh was Rm1.50 to Rm1.60 THEY SHOULD NOT GIVE SELL CALL ON TSH TO GO SO LOW AS RM1.40

THEY SHOULD UPGRADE TSH TO RM3.00 or RM4.00

THE VERY FACT THEY GIVE SELL CALL SHOWS THEY HAVE NO INTENTION FOR MOTHER SHARE TO GO UP

AND IF THEY MEANT WHAT THEY SAID THEN THEY WILL FOLLOW THROUGH BY "THROWING DOWN" THE MOTHER SHARES TO OWN TO PRESS DOWN THEIR CALL WARRANTS
.ANYTHING CONTRARY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE AT ALL

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 19:36 |

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Posted by Pinky > 2022-05-28 23:16 | Report Abuse

When you buy warrants you are gambling on share price movements.

When you buy mother shares you are investing in businesses, and enjoy dividends.

You cannot retire on warrants. But you can retire owning shares of profitable businesses.

Talking of which, Ta Ann got warrants by IBs? :P

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 09:39 | Report Abuse

Calvin,
With what basis did you come out with 7m mother share vs 200m CW?

Look at 27th May Trading,
The most active traded call warrants for KLK was KLK-C14.
Go to bursamalaysia.com and read CIMB monthly issuers's announcement for the month of April.
Total Issue Size of KLK-C14 is 150,000,000,
However, No. of KLK-C14 not held by CIMB on End April (meaning out in the market) was only 661,200 units.
The conversion ratio of KLK-C14 is 15, meaning 661200 / 15 = 44080 mother share.
This 44080 units is chicken feed compare to KLK volume 1,778,000 on Friday.
I do not think it is worth for CIMB to manipulate.

One guy from one Investment Bank told me that trading volume is one of the criteria set by Bursa (or SC?).
They can not get approval to issue structured warrant on mother share which are not actively traded.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 11:36 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNJ8K0xiqLg

Watch the above explanation.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 12:45 | Report Abuse

My understanding of how the IBs manage call warrants business, take example of KLK-C14.
1) Let say Monday, some one buy 300,000 KLK-C14 from Issuer,
2) As the No of KLK-C14 not held by Issuer increase by 300,000, Issuer will immediately go and buy 20000 KLK.
3) 10 minutes later, if another guy sell 150,000 KLK-C14 to Issuer, the Issuer will go and sell 10000 KLK.
4) This will continue until before the 5 settlement days.
5) Then the Issuer will dispose slowly their mother share holding in that 5 settlement days.
6) Sure win for IBs, no need to manipulate the market.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 14:00 | Report Abuse

Hi i3gambler, can you explain why/how do issuers issue call warrants and how do they earn from this?

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 14:37 | Report Abuse

The video doesn't say any details about how the bank or investor earn in specific. Let me take an example, SIMEPLT-C2
Current price RM5.05
Maturity 29 June 2022
Exercise price RM4.50
Warrant price RM0.065
Ratio 10:1
Premium: 0.20
Gearing 7.615

If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares?
It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid?
Hey wait, it makes no sense....

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:14 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

1) They calculate the Historical Volatility (HV), let say it is 20%,
2) Apply a factor of, say for example 1.25, it is 20%*1.25=25%,
3) This 25% become Implied Volatility (IV)
4) Input 25% to Fair Value Calculator, and let say they get the Fair Value is 60 sen,
5) Then they set the ratio as 4, the issue price will be 60 sen / 4 = 15 sen.
6) After listing, they set market making, Buy at 15.0 sen and Sell at 15.5 sen,
7) The Spread 0.5 sen, that is 3.3%, and is their profit,
8) If the price go down to 10 sen, then 0.5 / 10, that is 5%, higher profit,
9) If the price go up, they can set buy / sell spread to 1.0 sen to maintain the profit margin,
10) But the problem is when the price go up further, let say to 50 sen,
11) They can set market making buy 50.0 and sell 52 sen,
12) But I can jump Q to buy 50.5 sen , or the person who have that CW can jump Q to sell at 51.5,
13) Then Issuer can not maintain their profit.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:31 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

Input:
1) Dividend Yield = 0%, as there will be no dividend from now to Expiry.
2) Historical Volatility, 35% to 42%, I use 40%
3) Interest Rate, I use 4%.
4) Expiry, I use the 3rd settlement day, 24th June 2022.

My calculation show that the fair value for SIMEPLT-C2 is 0.0597.

May be you can read my post, SUNWAY-WB.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:38 | Report Abuse

If the current price RM5.05, the fair value is 0.0597, then as retail if I buy at 0.065 means it's not worth it for me? But if I buy at 0.065, I should wait the current price goes up to RM6.5? Just an example. I try search online on how it calculated but no result come up.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:39 | Report Abuse

If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares?
It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid?
Hey wait, it makes no sense....

No, you will not get any mother share.
They will calculate the 5 days average price of SIMEPLT,
Let say the average is 5.1234,
Then (5.1234-4.50)/10 = 0.06234,
Then 10000*0.06234=623.40,
A few days after Expiry, your account will be credited with RM623.40.

If the average price is lower then 4.50, then you will not receive any money.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:47 | Report Abuse

Hi i3gambler, I see, so that's what exercise price means. This makes it much clearer.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:47 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the explanation.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 17:51 |

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Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 18:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks Calvin, in short, stay out of warrants, except those issued by the company itself.

Posted by hannahtai > 2022-05-29 18:27 | Report Abuse

@calvindaneng, thanks for the explanation!

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-29 19:13 | Report Abuse

I still remember very well the volatility of gloves at that time. Calvin really has the wisdom, keeps the records and does his homework very well. Salute

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 23:33 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-30 08:26 | Report Abuse

Calvin,

You said "After IB banks have bought enough glove shares to hedge then only glove bull run resumed"

If what you said is from reliable sources, they should have learned the painful lesson, the big bosses should have scolded the managers and from then on they would buy mother shares immediately to hedge against any call warrants that they sell. Logically the history will not repeat so soon on plantation counters.

And myself believe that from the very beginning, the Issuers want "Sure Win" and "Kia-Su", they immediately hedge against any call warrants that they sell.

Sell Call Warrant without hedging or so-called Sell Naked is subject to unlimited losses.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-30 08:57 | Report Abuse

Actually mkt is bearish & mkt is also skeptical of the commodity bulll run of;

1.CPO
2. Steel
3. Crude Oil
4. Crack spread
5. Aluminum, Tin and Copper

Thus mkt is taking a cautious approach to its sustainability mah!

If say CPO continue to perform at above Rm 5000 going fwd and the management has good corp governance & pays good div to reward shareholders, I m sure the Plantation share price will continue to go up mah!

Even if the CPO price come down to Rm 4000, I m sure the impact on plantation share price is minimal as currently it is not overvalue mah!

Currently with all food inflation in the world plus limited land available for future cultivation due to the environment concern, plantation valuation & its land will be valuable loh!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-30 11:48 |

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Posted by Beltland > 2022-05-30 12:32 | Report Abuse

On market financial theory, Calvin is 100% correct. i3 gambler is totally wrong ! IB bank issues cw for the purpose to gamble with ikan billis. In gambling world ,the bankers must make sure they are on the advantage to make money from customers .So simple !!! Like that also don't know ! Pasar old lady selling kuih also know the secret !

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-30 13:13 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
skoh888 in his post have explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities".
The Youtube video link that I put here also explain IBs would not earn money that way.
What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them?
What an arrogant person you are.
Telling what financial theory?
You are joker?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-30 13:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-30 13:37 |

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Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-05-30 13:42 | Report Abuse

see jtiasa please.

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-05-30 13:43 | Report Abuse

talk so much but the earning so lousy. dare to talk many some more? no shame?

Posted by Beltland > 2022-05-30 13:56 | Report Abuse

i3gambler
Are you one of the jobless joker ?


" Telling what financial theory? "

If you don't known how to read from Calvin's writing ,stay away from share market and come to my factory at Kepong and I will give you a job .

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-30 14:05 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
True, I am jobless for more than 10 years already.
My "full time job" now is trading call warrants and future index.
So, no need another job.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-30 14:09 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-30 14:20 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
If I did not make money from call warrants and future index,
I would have died from hunger many years ago, so no need blessing from you.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-31 22:49 | Report Abuse

10611 pages views

21 persons clicked likes

Calvin say thank you to all dear dear people out there

Tyvm

Posted by up41 > 2022-06-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

Warrant issuers have deep pocket and network of equally deep pockets players to move shares prices just before or on the maturity dates. Not sure the Oversight body has the knowledge, resources , standards, spine, character & will to monitor and control these manipulation. Singapore oversight body could be more through and may punish any wrong doing so the prices there are more reflective .

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-01 10:59 | Report Abuse

Just avoid call warrants mah!

It is a kon job loh!

Posted by ahbah > 2022-06-01 11:30 | Report Abuse

CA ... kon stuff onli !

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-06-01 11:44 | Report Abuse

ahbah so innocent and sincere

may you be protected from all forms of evil

stay safe

Posted by ahbah > 2022-06-01 14:13 | Report Abuse

ahbah a small kampong kid now so veri hapi bcos got protection by the angels from all evils.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-06-01 16:11 | Report Abuse

@up41, refer to Serba interaction with SC, we can estimate the answer.

Posted by MrPatience > 2022-06-02 22:09 | Report Abuse

Jayatiasa doesnt have so called options or warrants, why it suffers heavy retreat?

Though some say jayatiasa result is lousy, but Jan-March is their seasonal low, yet generate better cash flow compare to 21Sep quarter amidst lower production, thanks to higher CPO price.

so I still cant figure out any valid reason for the 40% drops. What's your view on Jayatiasa and Suburtiasa?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-03 07:45 | Report Abuse

What is the key diff in ownership & management between Bplant V Jtiasa leh ?
Bplant reward its shareholders by distributing reasonable dividend whereas Jtiasa siphoned cash & profit for its own major shareholder profit mah!

In other words even if Jtiasa going to make good profits, they are not going to share any with u loh!

On the other hand, u can rely on Bplant for its good corporate governance mah!
And right now Bplant is actually making more monies than Jtiasa loh!