Maybe the Company expect next QR to be good? They probably buy now and sell to profit later...

Company buying back almost daily for the past one week, at about Rm0.945 average price...

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/10/kenanga-initiates-coverage-on-century-with-outperform-call/

Jack Ma is coming to town again soon...

So the e-Commerce / Last-mile logistics plays is coming back to live again... It's about time for CL to get another rally...

This morning RHB Retail Research forecast immediate resistance level at RM1.43, followed by RM1.57 level...

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/prolexus-may-rise-higher-says-rhb-retail-research

@ SuperLaber, see this news link:

http://www.asiaasset.com/news/EPF_shariah_SG1708_FS_DM.aspx

EPF has allocated Rm100b as Shariah Fund (14.67% of EPF funds) for 2017, now fully subscribed. The other 85.33% are non Shariah funds, that's why their buying of Prolexus shares without Shariah-compliance status.

@ hero666, thanks for sharing this Maybank IB full report, it's very detailed and informative...

They are "Conservatively Optimistic" about Tomypak's next 3-5 years growth in production capacities, utilization rates, revenues and profits CAGR, and NPM improvements, etc...

But they also clearly show that their forecasts are somewhat below the market consensus, not sure whose consensus are they comparing to, as the other IB reports we know of, CIMB is ridiculously pessimistic and Kenanga is neutral but too conservative, both give much lower forecast which did not do justice to Tomypak's expansions which are on-track and are giving very promising results with the new Senai factory already in production, just awaiting full certification by international bodies which would enable them to get bigger orders from MNC clients, currently limited by the old factory's constraints...

Any way, the reason for having both QoQ and YoY comparisons, is for us to detect seasonality and cyclical effects, so both are relevant...

Don't look at 5-years ago, their business has grown so much over the past 5 years, any seasonality effect would be masked by such tremendous growth...

If u guys look at the latest Q3 vs Q4, Revenues 61.7M vs 90.4M, and Net Profits 1.59M vs 7.1M, this is definitely not due to seasonality...

@ nikicheong, according to the QR, the management say that the Company's businesses are not affected by seasonality or cyclicality, so the QoQ comparison is relevant...

Looks like accumulation mode for Prolexus shares after the Q4 announcement...

It means the Company feel that their shares is worth more than 95sen, they buy and keep, to sell at a profit later, like what they did few months ago...

CIMB analyst is always pessimistic on Tomypak's prospects, he keep revising down Tomypak's fair value, no matter how they performed or expanded. When Tomypak reported better results, he doubted their NPM was too high. When Tomypak built a new factory, he doubted the new capacity can be digested.

Kenanga analyst is conservative, he keep maintaining Tomypak's fair value at neutral, he won't change his valuation until he see Tomypak's earnings gone up high.

Finally we see Maybank analyst give an optimistic report that acknowledged Tomypak's earnings boost with their new capacities increasing at 6,000 tpa in 2017(phase-1), 6,000 tpa in 2018(phase-2) and 7,000 tpa in 2019(phase-3), or 38,000 tpa total capacity, versus 19,000 tpa old capacity.

The Maybank analyst report is inline with our earlier expectations. They forecast earnings to grow at a healthy 17.6% 3-year CAGR, assuming base price of Rm1.00 just after share bonus/split, then the target price should be Rm1.18 (end-2017), Rm1.39 (end-2018) and Rm1.64 (end-2019) respectively according to the CAGR forecasted.

Come Q4, the final quarter of 2017, stock market sentiments usually become better...

Due to weak market sentiments, most counters are stagnant or moving sideways...

Yeah..., some accounting practices are dubious and some rules are made to fool the majority... Some research analysts take even more conservative approach, they would take the maximum share base assuming all the ESOS and Warrants get subscribed, and disregard all the subscription and conversion money received by the company as zero... They often wait till the new factories start to run full steam with new orders taken fully, RM get thrashed again, wait for Shariah status to be reinstated, etc, etc... Then only they recommend "Strong Buy" or upgrade their price targets...

The latest share base issued is actually adjusted based on "Weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue" for the period...

Based on the latest QR, T4Q EPS = 13.27 (basic), 12.31 (diluted), and last Friday's closing price Rm1.15, the T4Q PE should be 8.67 (basic), or 9.34 (diluted).

The latest QR should provide the most accurate data, including the latest share base issued.

Prolexus price may drop a few sen tomorrow, it should be temporary, because many investors only read the QR's 1-page "Summary", without doing a deeper analysis, and some retailers don't even read the QR at all. They may react to sell irrationally, that partly contribute to the market inefficiency, that creates buy opportunities.

After these selling stop, the bargain hunting by smart investors will cause the price to recover.

The P/BV ratio has drastically reduced from about 1.28 before end-June down to about 0.9 now, or about -30%, it should be more attractive now.

The worst should be over for Prolexus, after it suffered double blows with a poor Q3 and lost of Shariah status, and caused it's stock prices fell from Rm1.5x down to 1.1x, or about -25%...

The optimism are based on the following facts :
1. This Q4 turned out to be better than expected, 2. The NPM improved to 7.9% vs last Q4's 8%, despite deducting Rm4.18M one-off loss.
3. They are close to regaining Shariah status now,
4. The Company management turned more optimistic now, they expect a "Stable market" instead of "Challenging market" in the past.
5. The Company is fast-tracking the Fabric Mill construction, this will boost their revenue and NPM substantially next year.
6. The TPP was stalled after US has withdrawn, and then US market slowdown, so on hindsight the Vietnam apparel factory's construction delay seems to be a blessing in disguise.

In general, optimism lead to creation of opportunities, and pessimism simply kills it.

Simply put, optimism expect good things to happen, thus often lead to taking actions that create opportunities and produce results. Whereas pessimism expect only more bad outcomes, thus would do nothing or do things that might erase or avoid any opportunities!

The hot debates above on this Q4 results, lead us to the proverbial question, "Is the glass half empty or half full?"

Could it be a cause for optimism (half full) or pessimism (half empty)?

Suddenly, we could see the herds are rushing to the O&G fields in search of juicy grassland...

Quite often the same transaction may get repeated announcements.

@pc_FA,
you are right... Thanks for clarifying...

ESOS offered on 6.9.2017 is 5.13M at Rm0.87.

Mr. Yong acquired 1M shares at Rm0.873, on 14.9.2017. Could be from his ESOS entitlement he exercised?

@3A0012,
Mr. Lim being the MD is entitled to a substantial amount of company's ESOS shares reserved for key personnel at certain fixed prices, usually discounted from market prices. He can increase his shares by exercising his options later when the time is right for him, so for now he just focus on growing the company's business...

@apolloang,
Don't always look back at their past prices, look at the future growth prospects...

For example, stocks like VS demonstrate how the prices run up after bonus, free warrants and split, because of their growth and expansion...

Strange... How Mr. Yong could buy 1M shares at 7.5% discount on the prevailing market prices... When he sold all his warrants, he also sold at big discount from the market prices...

Anyway, the major shareholders are loading up more shares, what does that mean to us? I see good signs written on the wall... :)

Goodbye Amundi/EPF Shariah fund... No more heavy selling pressure from now on...

Later when Prolexus regain its Shariah Compliant status, Amundi/EPF may buy back millions of Prolexus shares, and then with their new factories start their production, the prospects is good...

I say more likely the run up should be in 1-2 years time, 2-5 years is hard to foresee...

My actual average cost should also be about 1.40 with the free warrants from RI subscribed... But the opportunity costs of holding it for over a year probably make my costs go higher than that.

Anyway, whether the price is cheap or not is quite subjective, we can have all kinds of parameters to measure the value of stocks, but stock investment is not a science, it's more like a "Black Art"...

Infinite, you made a good point, that's what I suspect too, hopefully the upcoming Prolexus QR prove that this is the reason...

@Jon Choivo,

Actually my average cost is much higher than current price level, as I hold this stock since May last year and subscribed the rights-cum-warrants, so it makes good sense for me to average down my costs, which I actually did when the price breached Rm1.20. Then the price dropped further and I didn't expect a rebound so quickly, so I diverted to other stocks thinking that I still have time to buy more later...

I think Skliew got it right, EPF (Amundi) has just exhausted their Prolexus (Shariah) stocks, so the selling pressure has faded...

@Dolly_Chai,
My sentiments too..., lately I've diverted some funds into buying other stocks, on hindsight, I should have bought more Prolexus shares instead, huhu...

Look at Magni, price dropped nearly rm1 or 15%, this is so irritational, just one small hiccup on the Q1'18 QoQ and we see the panic selling...

Quote Mr. Harryt30 : ”爆发股是等出来的，不是一买就爆发的“。
有时候为了等待一家优质股爆发，等待的时间有可能是1 - 2年..."

If Prolexus has poor earning potential and bleak future as some people commented, why would EPF keep increasing their Prolexus shareholding?

Literally, it's like EPF Left-hand key in selling orders while Right-hand key in buying orders...

Overall, EPF bought 2 over millions Prolexus shares than few months ago...

@nikicheong,
Actually EPF (Amundi) only handles the Shariah funds in EPF, which only affect EPF members who specify they want to invest in the Shariah Compliant funds, so other EPF members don't get affected by the EPF(Amundi) actions.

In fact, from the past few months we can see that while EPF(Amundi) sold down their Prolexus shares, EPF(others) actually continue to accumulate more Prolexus shares.

When good news are exhausted it's time to sell, when bad news are exhausted it's time to buy...

After seeing Mr. Yong and then the Chairman bought so many lots recently at 93-95sen, I feel more confident and topped up more Tomypak shares over the past 2 days at 93-94sen...

I bought at 1.20 over the past 2 days, but today I spent my bullets on Tomypak, so I didn't buy any Prolexus when it dropped further this afternoon...

Is it time to buy now? The story below may help those who try to time the market :

http://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/kianweiaritcles/131582.jsp

From the past few days Bursa announcements made by Manulife fund, apparently the big buy orders were made by Manulife...

Manulife fund already owns 5.xx% since few months back, and now they are trying to increase their shareholding despite the latest QR disappointing results.

Similarly for EPF fund, they have increased their shares from 5.xx% few months ago to 7.xx% now, and still buyng after the last QR announcement.

Question: do EPF and Manulife fund-managers know something that most retailers and players don't know? Or is it simply due to their stupidity?

Did you guys notice something strange about Mr. Yong Kwet On's warrants all were disposed at low prices? The last batch 3.5M warrants were sold at 27.5sen, but the market prices hardly went below 40sen since the share split... I think he sold in blocks in closed-market deals, average at about 30% below the prevailing open-market prices.

BIG question marks : Who did he sell to? and why he sold to the buyer at such low prices?

@ tan Lucy, your metaphor of CLH's parcel delivery business still at semen stage is quite funny but it's not correct... :-D

When CJKE bought in 31.5% of CLH and became the majority shareholder, the semen had already impregnated the egg. When the CJKE transferred several Korean key personnel into CLH, the embryo was developed. When CLH announced they have created a new division of parcel delivery business, the baby was born. Now they are actively acquiring new vehicles to run the parcel delivery, and they have already secured several new clients, including some CJKE's current Korean clients, including their deal with Lazada to deliver Korean products exclusively. It means this baby has started walking baby steps already...

Also, on top of organically growing the baby, CLH is in the process of acquiring an existing parcel delivery company, so that the baby can grow up fast and start running quickly in order to harness the huge growth potential of e-Commerce industry after Jack MA made Malaysia as their Asean hub. CLH is definitely on the right path to become a major player in the new business...

hongweigiet88,

The EPF holding 76.5% is obviously incorrect, because the next Top-9 investors collectively own more than 60%, so Top-10 collectively own 136.5% already exceed 100%...

We can't deny the possibility that CJKE could see many lobsters behind the corals which small investors may not see... But to say that they hv too much to waste so they would rather overpaid 60% to buy 31.5% of CLH shares, that's too far fetched, Koreans are not stupid people, they maybe even more shrewd businessmen than we think, that's why they can so successful globally in their industries and businesses...

Many past examples have shown that after the majority shareholder of a company take it private with offer prices well above the average market prices, then only small holders started to whine n cry that the offer price was too low below the stock's intrinsic value...