I think you might be confusing simple with problematic/wrong. This article focuses on trend and correlation. Its pretty simple to compare, if you use any charts, you can easily see the period when they didn't have an inverse relationship and notice what happened next.

Its going to be hard to counter your 2nd argument, cause you changed the narrative. If I was talking about macroeconomic conditions, then we could have a fruitful discussion. However, the article only focuses on trend and correlation and if indeed it does follow historical situations, then you should look for stocks that typically trend in the direction you think it will go.

So I can't respond to that, cause thats not what I am presenting. But based on the context of what I have written, it not illogical. Depends if a reader buy into it or not. But don't mistake it as being wrong/problematic unless within the same context, you can provide a different view - maybe i'll buy your argument if its better.

Love to see a different viewpoint but can only respond if you share your own views. Maybe you can post one of your own to counter the points. Who knows, you may be right. But broad view, we know what we are looking at now.

We guess risk wise, its a matter of a cup half full or half empty. Everyone will summarize risk differently. So ya, invest at your own UNDERSTANDING of what risk is.

We guess with cyclic stocks and IF you want to purchase them, when is better time to get one of these. During their profit cycle or outside this cycle? Which one is better?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Axel/124391.jsp

Our discount rate is 8.78%. It low because we used the unlevered beta of about 100+ listed transportation companies in the region. It not surprising, logistics is growing and hot sector, its likely to be more resilient.

Our profit projections are in the similar ballpark. We have it at about 190-200m by 2020. Just that from free-cash flow perspective it won't be as explosive. Although a lot can argue there is organic growth, we typically stick to the believe, you need to pay for growth, it doesn't just grow in trees. They can leverage on their partnerships, but unless its a merger - if we get say a GD & City Link Sdn Bhd. They need to grow their own infrastructure. None of that will come free or cheap. That impacts DCF valuation.

A lot of things need to happen right - we don't want to give them too many free passes in our valuation. Others might be more optimistic they can achieve more with less.

Post1 - Off-loaded but only partially. They might takeover Nationwide next month. Who knows what will happen unless you are an insider. Companies tend to expand aggressively when it is in their favour.

When market euphoria is on your side, you take it, you don't always get it. See how far it runs.

Part 2 - https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Axel/123574.jsp

https://www.facebook.com/LaburlahPortal/photos/a.292639984488363.1073741828.265213237231038/334455570306804/?type=3&theater

The latest information I have, Lazada has roughly about 10% market share of online transaction in Malaysia. Mudah is the largest at about 20%. Zalora about the same at about 10%. Lelong and eBay less at 8%. The rest like Amazon, Groupon and Taobao has 5% or less. Can google check the report by Bain Capital on this info. Even if exclusive partner of Lazada, not enough really. Have to be a true regional player to sustain uptrend pricing.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Axel/123395.jsp

Very good write up. Quite reasonable picture of their growth prospects. If anything, I think you can use your 2019/2020 earnings projection instead for a more aggressive pricing. Considering their ability to bag 2 contracts recently - they are due some credit for a their long term strategy and capabilities to deliver. But still a great write up!