Unfortunately HY Q4 results have proven its earnings are just plain volatile. Relative to other refiners, HY Q4 was much worse compared to Q3, even after adjusting for tax impact. This unfortunately in a way help to justify market's low PE valuation for HY.

With almost one quarter shutdown period & big tax impact for 2018, 2018 EPS is for sure much lower than 2017. Further delay in Euro 4M upgrade as reported by HY just add more risks. Failure to get it done before required date by government will mean even more losses in revenue & profits.

Market seems to have little trust on HY earning's consistency vs it's peers. Market only give HY very low valuation throughout 2017 even when it's profits are growing. Why would market give higher valuation to HY now when 2018 is known to be decreasing profit? If market continue to give HY PE 4 or lower, HY indeed has much lower to go for 2018.

Unfortunately HY Q4 results have proven its earnings are just plain volatile. Relative to other refiners, HY Q4 was much worse compared to Q3, even after adjusting for tax impact. This unfortunately in a way help to justify market's low PE valuation for HY.

With almost one quarter shutdown period & big tax impact for 2018, 2018 EPS is for sure much lower than 2017.

If market continue to give HY PE 4 or lower, HY indeed has much lower to go for 2018. Market seems to have little trust on HY earning's consistency vs it's peers.

Without good explanation from HY management to shareholders on how they plan to use available fund to grow the company, the 2 cents dividend seriously looks like an insult to shareholders from HY management... good luck to all HY shareholders.

Best not to reply directly to people giving useless comments. Replying them will only encourage even more useless remarks. Certainly won't do us any good wasting time arguing with them.

Just concentrate on giving useful information for benefits of all. Useful info is the best way to counter wrong & malicious info.

Long or short comments / info / data, do not matter so much. What matters are useful information.

Those giving useful info, we know who they are. We continue to appreciate & use info given.

Those giving useless comments, we certainly know who they are as well. We just ignore them since their comments are not worth our time.

By doing some quick checks on data & info presented in few of their comments, it will quickly become clear who gives useful information & which commentors are just downright waste of your time.

To those giving useful information here, we really appreciate them.

Beware of comments from others especially those who can't really back up their statements with justifiable figures.

Few days ago some tried to show Q4 refining margin were down by 20% for some oversea refiners. Quick checks clearly shows that is not true at all.

Unfortunately many here go so far as to give wrong / manipulated figures to justify their malicious opinions.

Always check figures & data for yourself. Ignore comments from these malicious people. Not worth your time reading, much less replying their useless comments.

Valid forward looking period is highly dependent on your investing / trading time line & strategy. There is no such thing as only one "correct" time line.

Unfortunately some seems to be getting emotional when faced with facts. Not wise to let emotion takes over in stock market... be extra careful with emotional opinions.

Unfortunately some seems to be getting emotional when faced with facts. Not wise to let emotion takes over in stock market... be extra careful with emotional opinions.

It appears some still attempted to justify their wrong info with their own opinion of future refining margin... Most refiners clearly expect 2018 refining margins to stay strong in their latest quarter report... You can also easily see market data for future months refining margin contracts stay high... Again look at data for yourself, not unsubstantiated opinions.

RIL posts record profit on refining margins boost...

www.livemint.com/Companies/glFPckmkcqijLXOsCm2RRO/Reliance-Jio-powers-RIL-Q3-profit-up-25-to-Rs-9423-crore.html

Note RIL financial Q3 end on Dec which is calendar Q4.

Some post here apparently tried to show refining margin is down by 20% in Q4 for refining company. It appears those analysis are inaccurate. Take S-Oil for example, the huge 90 bil Won FX impact to operating profit, which is not related to gross refining margin, was not taken into account when trying to compare refining profits between Q3 & Q4 in an earlier comments. Similar inaccuracies in SK Innovation figures posted in earlier comments can be seen.

S-Oil in fact clearly stated Q4 Singapore gross refining margin was only slightly lower vs Q3, less than 10%. As Q3 refining margin was extremely high at one point, Q4 margin though slightly lower was still very high & very profitable for refiners.

Misleading info seems prevalent here. Best for you to verify figures posted by others. You can check the actual data & picture with a little effort. Market refining margin data is also readily available.

Hengyuan becoming comical. Extreme rapid share price movements up & down resemble more like manipulated & speculative counter.

KYY latest comments just echoed what he has written few days ago in his blog post. Take profit when it rising too fast too soon.

His fair value target price for HY remains high though.

Read his articles to get better picture of his views. Some like to copy small snippets & make narrow interpretation to try reinforce & justify their own views & theories.

Between people who can only show nice theories & endless arguments vs people who are consistently showing great results in the market, I think it is clear who we should take our advice from.

There are a lot of investment strategies with their own time horizon. Just make sure you know your strategy & execute accordingly. No need to listen to so called gurus who try to shamelessly push their own unwanted strategy & advice to you.

Was looking to grab some Hengyuan shares but report from China National Petroleum Corp (one of the largest integrated energy groups in the world) means worsening market condition for HY.

So far don't see strong argument against CNPC report though Stockraider gave few comments (appreciated).

With refined oil from China flooding market in 2018, that will mean crack spread will drop down. HY profits, PE & fundamental will become worse. Does not seems like a good idea to invest in a company with worsening 2018 financial prospect?

CNPC report:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/the-flow-of-unwanted-oil-from-china-is-set-to-turn-into-a-deluge

- China 2018 net fuel exports to rise 31% vs 7% growth in 2017: CNPC
- Diesel shipments seen soaring 47% as export quotas expand
- China may add 36 million tons of new refining capacity this year

Stockraider... seek your opinion... what do you think of China National Petroleum Corp (one of the largest integrated energy groups in the world) 2018 refined oil market view below?

A blow to HY profitability & fundamental in 2018? Would HY Q4 result matter much anymore for HY 2018 stock price if 2018 profitability will be badly affected?

Or is this report from China National Petroleum Corp nothing to be concerned about?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/the-flow-of-unwanted-oil-from-china-is-set-to-turn-into-a-deluge

Flow of Unwanted Oil From China Is Set to Turn Into a Deluge

January 17, 2018, 6:00 AM GMT+8 Updated on January 17, 2018, 6:40 PM GMT+8

The pace at which China exports the fuel it doesn’t want is set to jump by more than four times in 2018, according to the nation’s biggest energy producer.

That’s a harbinger of bad news for processors in the rest of Asia -- from South Korea to Japan and India -- who now have to contend with higher crude prices as well as the threat of the flood dragging down refining margins. Government-issued quotas to sell oil products abroad may also expand this year in order to ease a large supply glut in the domestic market, an analyst at China National Petroleum Corp. said on Tuesday.

China’s net oil-product exports -- a measure that strips out imports -- may climb about 31 percent to 46.8 million metric tons this year, CNPC said in its annual report released in Beijing. Shipments rose about 7 percent in 2017.

In particular, exports of diesel -- also known as gasoil -- are expected to soar 47 percent to 23.8 million tons in 2018 from a year earlier, according to the CNPC report.

Crude oil stock gain booking by refineries when oil price moves up is a normal practice in the industry. This info is easily available for those who care to look for it.

Analysis from probability below showing recent higher crude oil more than offset lower crack spread effect... translating to higher profit for HY.

probability Jan 15, 2018 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

The sole reason for the slight dip on Petrol margin is because of the sudden rise in crude oil price. It takes time for the refined products to adjust with the raw material price..eventually it has to adjust if not the demand for the crude oil itself will be affected.

As had been explained earlier, 2 USD/brl drop in Mogas95 has an effect of only 0.8 USD per barrel. Lets assume for simplicity Mogas 95 had dropped by 2.5 USD/brl and as such the impact on refining margin is 1 USD/brl.

Before we realize the implication, let us find first the implication of a 10 USD/brl rise in crude oil which is the CAUSE of the dip in Petrol margin temporarily.

10 USD/brl will cause a gain in HY inventory by approximately 50 Million USD.

Now what is the impact of 1 USD/brl drop in refining margin to offset the gain by the rise in crude oil.

Lets see:

1 quarter = 90 days operation.

At 112k bpd, 90 days provides:
= 112 k bpd x 90 days x 1 USD/brl
= 10 Million USD loss.

This means, HY can afford to run at reduced Refining margin of 1 USD/brl for 5 quarters ( 1 year 3 months) due to gain from 10 USD/brl in crude oil price.

So THE CAUSE that had made the refining margin dip (THE EFFECT 1), by itself has another stronger EFFECT 2 which vaporizes this EFFECT 1 for another 1 year 3 months....

Would be great if i3investor make available feature for us to just ignore comments from specific userid... really waste of space & time having to scroll through their mindless comments.

The odds surely won't be good with wrong analysis in recommendation. Repeated in future for other counters, likely end up in losses.

The point of great concern.. atta-la recommendation was done with unachievable target price assumption since PA impact was not considered then... if no preventive measures are taken to prevent recurrence, it will surely happen again in future.

With such unsustainably high premium, WB will race down much much faster than mother on extended downtrend... likely to hit stop losses... even those set at lower levels.

WB premium appears to be too high, coupled with market downtrend... doesn't look good at the moment

Fundamental valuation looks good for Luxchem.

I'll have to correct you there. Certainly I post & comment on other things than you. Everyone can check that.

Just giving my observations on error happened with this recommendation. Whether you choose to improve your ways or not is your choice... & consequently for the public to make informed decision.

It is a public forum. When you come here & talk about your results, naturally people will comment... it becomes public discussions especially when you offer your service to public. Not being able to take feedback, opinion & simply accusing people of attacking you is not going to do any good.

It will be positive if measures are put in place to prevent it from happening again... otherwise would be bad.

OTB offered his service to the public. Therefore how his service is conducted & performance is the public's business to know for the public to make informed decision when considering his service.

Dropping spectacularly, especially LA. Too bad OTB did not check regarding PA before recommending to paying subscribers, especially when the plan for PA was already public information months ago. I guess a lot got burned by this episode. Not good.

Confidence in the service will be badly affected if no assurance is given on steps taken to prevent recurrence.

OTB did not check regarding PA before recommending to paying subscribers? That's really too bad for paying subscribers. Any action offered to prevent such overlook in future?

Unfortunately this episode gives the impression OTB terasa pedas... need to be wiser when responding in future.

Hmm... linking different comments & just assume sifu (O) is OTB... hantam others just based on that... not wise.

Did Superb99 mentioned OTB in his comment above? Don't see it. Not wise to carelessly make assumption & shoot our mouth recklessly.

If comcorp management still have no effective answer to arrest business decline, as already proven for last 2 quarters, results will continue to get much worse... more pain to come...

Comcorp management admitted results will be worse with volatile energy prices, which is what we are seeing now... seems qtr results & share value will be even worse in coming quarters... going down further.

Even with high USD last qtr, which is supposed to be an advantage to Comcorp, their revenue & profit were deteriorating... shows how bad the demand for their products have become... & it is getting worse.

Many will likely continue selling & take their money to better performing company

Revenue & profit have been going downtrend for continuous 2 quarters... & demand for their products continue to decrease... does not look good for Comcorp in immediate future

With demand for their products clearly worsening, investors naturally expect worsening results in coming qtrs & continue sell down.

Weakening demand from their customers... looks bad for the company...

Anyone know what is the price of KC Chong's online investment course?

Dayang just got upgraded to BUY from HLIB Research... good for Dayang...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/hlib-research-upgrades-dayang-expects-stronger-year-ahead

Prlexus just formed golden cross. Very good.