I have given you all the tools to make your decision.....this message is for those who feel for this counter....if you don't feel for it, this is NOT for you. I would like to share some very intimate information with you on this counter however I don't want attract the wrong ppl. So just trust at this point. If not pls don't buy......my sincere advice....

Nothing to question here.....nothing to regret......BE confident

For those who keep shouting market will crash, will some day be right! For those other days that market did not crash, many are making money........

Lesson 101 - why penny stock and not anything more?

Penny stocks are desirable at this point because ppl are cautious of the market outcome with most indexes at new heights.
Imagine for a RM2 stock vs a RM0.50 stock.- assuming both have good fundamentals
1. With rm50k I can buy 100k shrs of penny vs 25k shrs of RM2
2. With a downturn, which stock will decline more? The penny stock that is undervalued or the rm2 stock which is undervalued? Ask yourself how much more can an undervalued penny stock decline
3. Penny stocks are more affordable, this means more players in the market can participate and in short more desired during low period to high
4. In this period, judge for yourself, how many mid premium stocks can move at least 10cents....mid premium here refer to (rm2 to rm4) vs small cap and penny stocks which are trying to grow. If you have the answer, then ask yourself would you keep a lot of money in amid premium stock but hold little volume of it or penny stocks with equivalent amt of money however wih large volume?

In the example above of a 50cents vs rm2 stock means the rm2 stock must move 4 time more ...right? If you agree, this means to make same amt of money, a 10cents move in penny stock must be reciprocated with a 40cents move in a rm 2 stock.
Assuming if they are still equal in the movement, then ask yourself, if there was a crisis, who would sell faster....remember not many can afford mid premium to premium until the price drop by a significant margin whereas a good penny stock can retain better.

So again ask yourselves why the market is buying penny stocks......:) if you got the answer, then ask again why are ppl are still playing the market?
Bottomline is the market is played by different ppl at different time
Example, there are those
1. opportunist.....buy when market crash,
2. Middle position player.....like most are and they play for extra income
3. Investors who only collect when low or perceived low
4. Traders who play the difference in margin or TP

So which are you?

Don't be affected by what ppl say......believe and focus in your own understanding ........it's only 1mths to hold

Don't take my words....watch.....

I told you before about ghost buyers.....they are not seen in queue but they are there.....when option cannot turn (price cannot move up or down) they will come in because they know it's the lowest.

I m in another 3000 lots......embrace.......

Merdeka!.....Merdeka!.....Merdeka!

The beautiful thing about a Titijaya vs IOI is there is no history for Titijaya. IOI is relisted and certain fundamental linger with the investors......

Are you ready??
FYI I will be doing multiple 5 sons and 1 mother each round. I think you shud be clear why I pick that ratio and to buy both.

Those cannot decide shud not price will not drop or stagnant at 64.5.....you sell I buy....you sell more I buy.....son mother, son, mother all day long tomorrow......:)

Tomorrow mother will move!!
Why?
Because 2 cents of current 64.5c is 3.1% within less than a month. Ex-date is 23 of next mth. Where can you do 3.1% in less than a mth??
FD is 3.15 % a year......so essentially if every mth I do 3.1%, a year I can do 3.1x12 = 37.2% a year. 37.2% is further more not compounded as it should be.
Compare this 37.2 % vs 3.15% a year. It will be gold rush folks.

Where will it end?
Technically it will end when equivalent to 8% per month approx before 23Sept......why 8%? Because 8% is the benchmark we use for avg earnings per annum (at very least) to be considered good investment. Note most condos are yielding at 5.5 to 7%

Technically it should end at 69.7cents at least and investor would have covered for the year....

Today's closing for son is a very good example....
Approx closing 52cents
For those contemplating to convert LA, each conversion will cost you 13cents
Hence 4 LA conversion will cost you 13 x 4 = 52cents.....equivalent to closing today
This means that the price you fork out for conversion you can buy 1 LA. Essentially if you don't convert, you can have 1 additional LA for very for that you had wanted to convert right?

So for every 4 L a that you don't convert, you add 1 LA to it for the price of conversion?hence you will have 5

Assuming you have 100 LA to convert, you can have 125 if you don't convert right....?
Ok let's do the calculation....if they move in tandem, mother and son, and assuming up 5cents before dividen ex, you would make additional 25k shrs of 5cents you would have made additional RM1250 vs RM2000 from dividen.

True in an ideal case, however in real situation ppl sell before ex or upon ex right? So if you sell upon ex, the price would have factored in the price appreciation due to dividen right? Base on 5cents example, the price for mother would have been 69.5cents before ex and upon ex, it will drop 2 cents or more to = < 67.9c.....most will go before ex and take the 5 cents example. If so why bother to convert when son can buy you more .....

FYI I hold both mother and son.....use logic and common sense and answer is clear.....
Also read my earlier example of 75cents for mother would meet market cap comfortably and read what will happen then....

Take this fact and decide for yourself
1. Son convert to mother is 1 way street
2. When mother heavy after conversion, son fast...law of ohysic....lol

Question for no 2 is when right....I am saying when mother is stable at 70+c and I believe it's 75cents to take son clearly into 60cents....GOTit??

Take example 2cents dividen and take 13cents conversion divide by it.....you get 6.5 more shares right. What this means is when mother moves due to dividen son will move also and you can enjoy 6.5 times more with son at that point.

Once again read and feel for where I am coming from........

Again, my final focus is M&A in this counter. Remember the noose by the hangman is getting tighter coming 2015. L&G is one of those company who will have the advantage. They carry mix of premium and non premium landbanks which will ensure launches and churn rate continue.

Remember, to cross the 70c and 60c for mother and son is a tall order. This is a double jump and mother must guide son carefully. I won't repeat and u can read my earlier posting on how mother will bring son over 60c.

Today, we want to re-focus. To re- focus on the objective and inner thinking of the Senior Management.

I have already touch on Low Gay Teck and who he is in his adept and who is Mayland in this equation changing game.

These guys are strategically sound planners who are going to deliver step by step and you can take this with you in your pocket. Why did I say that?
For a start, Tan Sri of Mayland has already place his 2 children here early and then removing one. This was a period of adjustment and fitting. Then followed by Low Gay Teck delivering the numbers of the last 5 years which I told you for last Q result will be based on 3 3 3.........5 years is a good number though I like 6 years better. So think of it this way...if you have worked hard last 5 years and accumulate a sizeable amt of money, what will you do? On a personal basis I will go for a spa or treat my self to something nice first...right? Then I will think of how to double my money or maybe even triple..rights?


So in most cases to expand business, we pump in more money. They however have resorted to the first option ie loan stock. The use the same tool to convert to market capital so that the loan money will be retain and at the same time developing a bigger market cap. So now you have already expanded without having to put in your own money...what's next?

The next is to ensure you plan expansion has space to inflate right? This is where the Bonus must come in. However before the bonus issue can be implemented, they need to prop the price up over and above the earlier settle price. My guess is 50+cents for mother and 40+cents for son. So assume bonus base on 2/3 (dilution) mother must be in region at least 75cents and stable and son above 60cents. Note I use the term at least or minimum......

I already said loans done for expansion ie loan stock and conversion to mother and that double up with the market cap to get buy in of investors.....heavy weight investors. But is that enough? Generally no because the exercise must create some free cash flow or additonL cash.....as i wrote earlier financial loan upstream and downstream is capped. This means harder to get loans.....I see a private placement partnership coming. PP is normally project based. This will enable loan stock money to be used for other projects while PP money will help co develop major project without having to take another loan during the difficult times of 2015

I won't write too long on this one and I believe you understand where I m coming from.....
1. Reward on the way
2. Loan & loan conversion and market cap base in the works
3. PP to offset GST and loan interest by hedging the PP partnership share
4.Bonus issue......this will expand the base and market capital further

I believe 3 will come first before 4.....

Good Luck and God Bless

2016 is suppose to read 2015

Hahaha...Merdeka!....Merdeka!.....Merdeka!!....

Wait for 4Q ramp up.....pre GST, pre 2016

H20 selling at 850psf.....let's see how they ramp up towards end of year...

Hermen, I m just a writer......

New88 search my posting, I wrote on that before.

I will keep my promise........Merdeka!.....Merdeka!!.......MERDEKA!!!!!!!

Pls don't buy if you don't subscribe to the logic, pls don't hold if you do not have your own!

This message is meant for those who understand what I m talking abt*******

With the world becoming more global, this means that the stronger stake holder has more control over the lesser one. And to exude more influence they have the like of TPPA and other voluntary sanctions.

But understand why all these policies? These policies are to moderate the market and raise alarm bells before any occurrence. Much like the tsunami buoy.
I have said earlier that RECESSION is an old technical term already and cannot be applied to our market anymore. Reason being businesses are more diversified and global and performance may come at different time of the year. Since recession measure 2 consequetive quarter of non performance or performance below par, this is no longer realistic.

Have a thought......

If u already know property price is going to go up, who will be the beneficiary of good margin??
With equal raw material quality and cost, and equal upstream and down stream financing, the difference in margin and volume will go to the one with the cheaper Landbank and good strategy.

What is a good strategy??
Remember when they were taking away DIBS? And developers strategize to launch towards year end? And sales and bank LO must be awarded before year end 2013? It will happen again this year with the anticipation of all the point I have put forward on why property price won't go down.

If you think for a moment , inflation can be contained in 1 year ie 2015, you r wrong
If you think 2015 nobody will buy property and price will fall, you are wrong again
If you think Property Developer will die from the lack of sales in 2015 you are equally wrong.......

I can assure you PD will merge and continue launches with most already marketing abroad.
Ringgit still weak susceptible to attacks and foreign buyers will continue to come in.
With Security heighten in Iskandar and stakeholders taking charge of them, they will replicate this to Penang and Perak Development.......
Nothing will happen for nothing
And something will happen for many things......

BE READY.......

Don't keep becoz of low PE....why did this stock become undervalued in the first place? For a stock to fall from rm8 to penny stock is because it became undesirable......lack of direction and focus makes it undesirable = undervalued.

Is it desired now?
1. There is a direction and management plan ie Market Cap, Dividen, Bonus, Target, Multi year generator......
2. There is a reason i.e Timing ....they carry less premium Landbank which they can develop and sell cheaper in inflation enviroment
3. There is an achievement in over last 5 years

At PE of 4.88, and with a Landbank in Lembah Beringgin set for Developement with GDV of. RM100b, u can expect something to happen!!! Watch and learn...

Why...
1. Property prices will go up
2. Everything else is down from CPO to Gold
3. Foreign buyers are evaluating and they are already buying in key areas
4. Hedging

Property price go up because
1. inflation - raw materials have all increased. Assuming the launch and sell now and property ready in 3 years time, the price of the property with the inflated price of raw material cannot be lowered
2. GDC deposit - Gross Dev Cost deposit is a deposit that is base on % of overall Developement cost. This will be refunded when project completed however the developer will lose bank interest and free cash flow for churn. This cost factored interest will definitely be passed on to consumer
3. GST - developers fall under except rated GST which means they cannot claim back though the upstream manufacturers (ply wood, bricks,alumimium,....) can do so. This cost again will be passed on to consumer
4. OPR rate increase will set the tone supply an demand. The rate will likely increase again. This means upstream and downstream loans (developer and consumer loans) will be limited and thus appreciating the margin to cover the holding cost.
5. Property price appreciation....this means if you develop a land at a location where property price has gone up, your selling price cannot be cheaper

If property price a will go up, how to afford property? Let's face it, what ever happens, we will hedge esp the Chinese. What will happen is they will match the price against the property and location and buy as many as possible....true?
Prices around central Klang Valley where the MRT landings has already gone up 30%. This means those houses which used to be rm300k 10years ago is now rm600+k and those at landing of MRT will be rm800+k

So how? The only way to afford is to buy outside KV to ride thru the next 6 years. Why 6 years? Because 6 years is the next 2 years development cycle with each having 3 years grace because the price at central KV will be another 30% in the next 3 to 6 years. Mind you it's a global inflation, you cannot hedge raw material in large qty due to market and forex fluctuations. Expect the same hse which cost RM600+k today to be 900k and those with MRT landing to be above rm1Million.

Solution? Those with cheaper landbanks to counter the raw material inflation!
Land banks outside KV is still relatively cheaper however there must be a catalyst ....eg near Iskandar, near Perak Developement or near penang bridges where next phase of Developement will happen. Malaysia WILL build the next high speed rail....it's a fact and a question of when only. This means the rail must run thru most major development area to be feasible. Hence those location I mention will be next in line within the 3 to 6 years cycle.
I already told you abt PSB in penang and the opening will create a massive hike in those counters esp Tambun and GOB. That cycle has subsided but a new one is coming soon......

Find out more about. Lembah Beringgin based on my facts above and where it's location is near and why it will be a catalyst??
Good Luck