Bird Flu Alert

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2018/09/04/latest-bird-flu-case-detected-tuaran

From the QR:
Profit before tax lower year-on-year mainly due to increase in feed cost, as a result of rising exchange rate.

The recent strengthening of the US dollars against the Ringgit have caused all imported raw and packing material particularly the feed cost to rise that will impact profitability going forward.

I find the reason given by the management is not right.
USDMYR average rate in Apr17-Jun17 (1Q18) = 4.3329
USDMYR average rate in Apr18-Jun18 (1Q19) = 3.9463

Actually, the Ringgit gained over 9% year-on-year, not the other way round. The mgmt need to provide more explanation!

price continues to fall just the way sharks want
where is the bottom?

Wah big seller in the market, falling to 0.60

Thank you very much. More guidance is very appreciated.

https://www.sutori.com/story/lay-hong-bhd

Most of us have fallen to the trap set by the shark manipulators.
The recent correction has already take in Bird Flu news and upcoming so so quarterly results. After some research, I'm convinced now the sharp drop is overdone and being played by sharks to squeeze out honest investors. Please open your eyes. The mgmt probably knows it too.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/coincidences-abound-lay-hong

The trap was set long time ago and triggered in July this year. I'm sorry for those who were caught at high level.

Now, I'm fear that those long-term institutional investors (see AR 2018) will start selling after ard 30% loss in value. Without their support, the price will be further pressured downward.

Based on my est, the sharks' cost is around 0.35-0.50. Not sure their strategy. Gurus out there, pls share on how they play their game. I think only way for us to win is to be able to wait many months for the rebound :(

P.S.: Sharks pls PM me. I'm interested to learn your game.

Margin call trigger around 0.625, be careful and good luck!

Herbert is so funny, lol

Study shows potential of H5N1 AI virus to cause pandemic

https://www.poultryworld.net/Health/Articles/2018/7/Study-shows-potential-of-H5N1-AI-virus-to-cause-pandemic-309030E/

Same strain found in Sabah

Seems like other countries also facing bird flu outbreak

http://www.worldbulletin.net/health-environment/204858/bird-flu-kills-one-in-vietnam

hopefully the bird flu doesn't spread to peninsular Malaysia...

Sarawak bans poultry from Sabah after bird flu outbreak
https://www.malaymail.com/s/1659924/sarawak-bans-poultry-from-sabah-after-bird-flu-outbreak

Hong Kong suspends imports of chicken, eggs from Malaysian state after bird flu outbreak
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-birdflu-malaysia-hongkong/hong-kong-suspends-imports-of-chicken-eggs-from-malaysian-state-after-bird-flu-outbreak-idUKKBN1KS1GL

20180806 Wild aquatic birds on migration believed to have caused avian influenza in Tuaran

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2018/08/398582/wild-aquatic-birds-migration-believed-have-caused-avian-influenza-tuaran

technical factors signal overselling; current looks favorable from technical perspective but i notice the price has been falling very gradually 0.005-0.01 cent past week....so weird

The news are fact, check the links yourself.

Just sharing research. If you don't like them then just ignore.

Some other comments I see here are really nonsense without any analysis and fact/research.

new bcuz just started to come here. Just bcuz it's new doesn't mean it's bad...

Sentiment likely to be weak as investors stay cautious. Fat tail risk so, limited upside in the near term (2-3 mths for the bird flu to confirm spread or not). Good growth potential but have to hold it for long-term (down b4 up and up if no bird flu).

I think the selling started when the whatsapp info abt bird flu circulated before mid-Jul and the Sabah minister stated no outbreak at the time. But announced outbreak in last Friday (3 Aug) when tested +ve ard end Jul.

Director selling warrants at loss likely due to margin call when the sell-off started. Bad timing that's all, bought alot warrant end of Jun.

Better be safe than sorry.

Good luck.

Bird Flu trend below:

20180212 Avian flu hits more poultry in Iraq, Iran, Asia
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/02/avian-flu-hits-more-poultry-iraq-iran-asia

20180315 Duck farm culls thousands of poultry and 'huge area locked down'in South Korea
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/932009/bird-flu-avian-influenza-duck-farm-thousands-culled-south-korea-china-news-latest

20180529 Nepal reports outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/health/nepal-reports-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-h5n1-bird-flu-10286486

20180613 Outbreak Spreads to European farms
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/973901/bird-flu-outbreak-spreads-european-farms

20180627 China reports outbreak of highly contagious H5N1 bird flu at chicken farm
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2152647/china-reports-outbreak-highly-pathogenic-h5n1-bird-flu-chicken-farm

20180803 Deadly bird flu RETURNS Hundreds of birds KILLED and thousands culled in latest outbreak
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/998631/bird-flu-virus-vietnam-h5n6-infection-bird-flu-outbreak-latest

20180803 Farm in Tamparuli-Tuaran tested positive Bird Flu virus

I think lay hong has a quite a number of farms in Sabah. See annual report. Good luck

could be due to recent claims that chickens in poultry farms in the state are dying due to bird flu infections:
http://www.theborneopost.com/2018/07/12/no-bird-flu-outbreak-in-sabah/

Department of Veterinary Services (DVS) Sabah is doing further test to ascertain if there is any disease outbreak.

China reports highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu at chicken farm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-birdflu-china/china-reports-highly-pathogenic-h5n1-bird-flu-at-chicken-farm-oie-idUSKBN1JM1ZS

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/business/article/2152955/chinas-birds-nest-crackdown-leaves-indonesia-struggling-feather

better be safe than sorry, will wait and see