I think Kenanga the main big buyer from .16 -.33 and now selling back to small fries at high prices. If you go ask jcy, WD and seagate mananagement if HDD demand will be explosive, they will laugh at you.

No need to do warrant to print $ this time because bought at such low price already easier to sell back to small fry.

last 6 months in the worst of the virus pandemic, Both western digital and seagate reported terrible result and demand. With restrictions easing globally and a coming vaccine, suddenly hdd will have explosive growth because everybody will lock them self at home to work from home. This is laughable.

Wrong. Nearly 50% is western digital business enterprise cloud market and seagate more then 80%.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371910-western-digital-headwinds-abound

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/08/28/seagate-a-30-stock/amp/

This is deadly trap. Becareful. Both Jcy main customer Western digital and seagate hdd business on the decline. Share price of both company drop nearly 40% this Year.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.thestreet.com/.amp/investing/western-digital-plunges-post-earnings-takes-micron-lower

Why do companies acquire other companies? To buy the expertise, customer base and personnel so you don’t have to reinvent the wheel and start from scratch to be adventurous.

Of course revenue decreasing, last few years is down cycle in storage market for every player. Seagate and wd revenue also decreasing revenue during this time. But up cycle In storage just started so will be very good years ahead for jcy. Also diversifying into automotive will boost revenue further and may overtake their hdd revenue one day!

Sage, totally agree with you but we must be patience and allow whale to accumulate before they will let share price move higher.

Hdd prices will increase due to reduce supply on China production lock down on coronavirus.

https://blocksandfiles.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-outbreak-could-choke-nand-and-disk-supplies/

Flood version 2 in the making.

SDM sold to JCY and accept payment mostly inshares value jcy share at .43 each when share were trading for .34 Why? Because SDM must have confidence jcy can scale up their auto business quickly and share price will be a lot more then .43 in future!

SDM website

http://www.sandomet.com/networks_precision.htm

Read this first to understand what a CNC machine is. Jcy have thousands of these machines producing hdd. The same machines can be used to make a lot of other products like auto parts.

https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/custom-manufacturing-fabricating/understanding-cnc-machining/

Market do not realise the importance of SDM acquisition. The precision casting and machining machines are the same for HDd and auto, so they can scale up the auto component very quickly!

SDM makes precision auto components for Toyota and Honda. This will be a different company in future.

They make parts for automotive industry which JCY just acquire to break into automotive industry.

Wow. MA valuing the shares at 0.43 as company diversify into automotive parts. See announcement on bursa website.

Storage and chip market up cycle again. ...price will go much higher soon.

Domp the warrant issuer doesn't need to accumulate their own cx because it's theirs to list to sell in the first place. Cost them nothing other then listing costs. The huge warrant volumes you see each day is mainly them selling with left hand and buying back with right hand to inflate the price just like mother. do you think they prefer to distribute the warrant to the market at half a sen or six sen?

No shark will dare take on the 3 big bank who issue the warrants ( maybank, RHB and kenanga). The warrants are always issued in concert with other banks to maximize control of the price.

Warrant issuers always use third party, sometimes offshore unrelated entities to execute buy and sell on their behalf so it is not obvious to market. How do I know this?
I use to work in the derivatives dept of a bank. Often several offshore entities are employed to buy and sell the stock at the same time like a cycle to push the price up or press it down.
On the shareholder spread it looks like many different fund holding the stock when in fact it mostly owned/borrowed by the warrant issuers through 3rd parties.

Wrong domp. If current mother price is Maintained at current level of .64 and cx expire at this price. It means warrant issuer must pay .04 sen for every 1 warrant sold.
Why would they do that when they can press price down to under .60 and pay nothing to cx holders. 99.99% of warrant expire at a loss to the holder and warrant issuer payout ZERO.

why do you think the share price have not passed rm1 despite stellar results last Q? If the warrants did not exist, the price will be easily rm1 weeks ago already. Share price is now hamstrung by the warrant issuers. at current price level, the warrants have not sold much. The next move will be to pull the mother price down severely to sell more of the warrants at a heavy discount. Better to sell more of the warrant at a cheaper price then to sell no warrants at all as the warrants is free for them to issue. Be cautious and alert, the risk on this counter is now highly elevated.

No they would have already accumulated the mother share below the exercise price before issuing the warrant. This is why as explained by sage, they are able to control and contain the mother price to ensure it never runs up to high to a pint where they can't make it go back down to make the warrants worthless near expiry. This is why other big fish will not dare touch this counter now.

If they successfully acquire the ssd company, it will be the best diversification business decision they have made to date. Expect the share price to be rm2+ if this happens.

Cash rich JCY eyes overseas acquisitions
http://m.thesundaily.my/node/339412

The next 12 to 24 months is prime earning time for JCY. Ringgit will remain weak for at least another 12 months due to falling oil prices which is expected to stay low until 2017. Then on the other hand usd about to lift off due to interest rate raise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/as-opec-meets-world-oil-traders-see-prices-stagnating-into-2017

finished retracement in the last week. now the next leg up.

Funds suppressing price down for accumulation.

Once they finish collecting they will let the price run back up again. Use the opportunity to buy more while price is kept low.

Stellar result. Compare to same quarter last year is nearly 500% increase in net profit! Full year result is 100% more net profit then last financial year. Revenue increasing as well. The next few quarters will be very good considering the usd will keep appreciating due to coming fed rate increases.

USD expected to rally for 6 months from December fed rate hike. Earnings will continue to grow
on USD appreciation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-14/jpmorgan-says-dollar-rally-may-extend-6-months-after-fed-liftoff

Be patient. It will cross rm 1 easily. Fed will start increase rates in December, this will make usd appreciate. Future earnings will be explosive!

it will go higher then RM1. why? big result and big div coming. Also foreign funds are buying now because the ringitt is probably settling at current low point so cheap to buy with foreing currency. Coming Div and results will propel share price up and if and when ringitt recover will mean forex gain for them as well. double win. cheap to buy and share price risks are hedged against the very low ringitt. Expect major movement up in share price in coming weeks.

Red eye lah. When ever got counter move up, there will be a few red eye miss the train and throw few negative comment to try and buy at lower price. Funds already happily collecting away as can be seen with 42m shares traded hands last Thursday. This volume has not been seen since flood time. The funds know better then small fry wannabe experts.

Use the opportunity to collect while the big fish is holding price down to accumulate. in 5 weeks this will not be a penny stock anymore.

You do realize China company tsinghua just announce 3.8 billion usd buyout stake in WD. Do you know who owns tsinghua? The China government with affiliation to China top university tsinghua. I think the China govt and its top academic university knows better.

Difficult to crack rm 1 with 3 combined quarter profit of 133m yes. But 100m profit for 1 quarter alone is exponential profit. This only happened during flood. Guess how high the share price went then? Rm 1.62. Ringgit will stay weak for medium term and China WD buyout will only boost Jcy revenue. You made a big mistake selling out early my friend.

500m shares on market with other 1.5b shares held by ykk. Has not changed since listing in 2010 and during 2012 flood price went back to IPO price of 1.60.

2014 - 120m Net Profit

2015 - 233m Net Profit (inclusive of 100m upcoming profit for Q4)

Calculations below are based on 233m net profit for FY2015 which includes the upcoming 100m net profit for Q4.

-------------

EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS)
= Net Profit /Number of shares
= 233m /2 billion shares
= 11.65 sen EPS.

--------------
PRICE to EARNINGS RATIO (PER)

= Current Price Per Share / EPS
= .68/11.65 EPS

= 5.8 PER

Western Digital Current PER = 12 (90% of JCY sales comes from WD)

Assumming a conservative PER of 10 for JCY:
= 1.20/ 11.65 sen EPS
= 10 PER

JCY Fair Value (FV) at PER 10 = RM 1.20
Dividend yield for full financial year = 6.25 sen (5.5%)

Potential Share Price upside = 52 sen or 80% from current price of .68

* This is based on earnings alone and does not factor in future value of increased sales/orders from WD due to recent China Aquisition of WD which will give WD direct access to china market (90% JCY sales comes from WD). Noting any increase in sales will have an increased multiplier effect on net profit due to weakening ringgit strengthening USD.

Many the export company that sell in usd already double or triple in price in the last 12 months. Eg VS and Lihien. Jcy have not move much but With the coming Q big result and the China buyout of WD, should easily pass rm 1.

China very confident and bullish on HDD market. WD now have direct access to China market. Big increase in sales for JCY in the future as WD is a major customer of JCY.

Forbes Asia 9/30/2015 @ 9:52AM 1,176 views

China's Unisplendour Buys Western Digital Stake For $3.78 Billion

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2015/09/30/chinas-unisplendour-buys-western-digital-stake-for-3-78-billion/

Ray thanks for your valuable information. I too have vested heavily in Jcy and have been following your posts very closely and I must admit I have been overly concentrated on researching Jcy and hdd industry/competitors that I overlooked the developments in ssd. it is very hard to have an unbiased view when you are vested but I agree with you that 3D nand poses a serious risk to hdd. The question then becomes this, as an investor in Jcy do I see its future earnings to be poor, reasonable, good, excellent or outstanding excluding the currency gains. The next question then becomes are these earnings level enough to sustain the share price from any major impacts from the coming 3D band threat to hdd. For me the company has not been producing enough real sales profit to cushion the share price against a major shock to the hdd industry from 3D nand. for that reason better for me to protect my capital. Hopefully it doesn't drop too much tommorrow so I can exit.

Ringgit now 3.72 against usd and heading for 3.80+ as fed will likely increase interest rate in June. Big profit coming for jcy.


Dollar Rises to 12-Year High Amid European Bond-Buying, Fed Bets
by Lananh Nguyen
10:59 AM AEDT March 10, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar surged to the strongest level in almost 12 years as the specter of higher U.S. interest rates and the European Central Bank’s acceleration of its bond-buying program cascaded through global financial markets.
The U.S. currency rallied against 14 of its 16 major peers as national central banks in the euro region were said to have purchased sovereign debt for a second day in their quantitative-easing program. The dollar touched the highest in 7 1/2 years versus the yen and rose to a record against the Mexican peso.
“You could see another round of dollar strengthening on the back of people again realizing that a Fed rate hike could be imminent,” Thierry Albert Wizman, currencies strategist at Macquarie Capital USA Inc. in New York. “U.S. rates are going up, the U.S. economy is good and the rest of the world is not in as good shape.”

The Fed stands out among major central banks in accepting a higher exchange rate as a sign of economic strength. Peers from Tokyo to Frankfurt, Zurich and Sydney are cutting rates and buying government bonds to stimulate growth and, in the process, sometimes weakening their currencies.
The dollar appreciated 1.4 percent to $1.0698 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York and reached $1.0693, the strongest since April 2003. It touched 122.03 yen, a level unseen since July 2007, before trading little changed at 121.13 yen.
The greenback climbed to parity with Switzerland’s franc for the first time since the Swiss National Bank removed a currency cap against the euro in January.
Rate Speculation
Options traders see a 56 percent chance the Fed will raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2006 by September, up from 48 percent odds at the end of February.
The ECB and euro-region central banks began their 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion), 19-month QE program on Monday.
U.S. Treasuries rose for a second day Tuesday as investors sought higher yields than they can get in Europe amid the bond-buying. Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 2.13 percent, while 10-year German bunds yielded a record-low 0.23 percent.
“The U.S. dollar is likely to continue grinding higher against other majors” if the Fed increases borrowing costs while other central banks ease, Sireen Harajli, a strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in New York, said in a note.
The U.S. central bank meets March 17-18. Chair Janet Yellen told Congress last month that the Fed’s pledge to be “patient” on starting to raise borrowing costs means an increase is unlikely for “at least the next couple” of meetings. She signaled that dropping the vow would mean rates could be raised at any meeting.
‘More Hawkish’
“The market has become a little more hawkish in terms of what to expect” on the pledge at the March meeting, said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London.
Prospects of higher interest rates have helped the U.S. currency outperform most global peers in 2015 as central banks in Europe and Japan embrace stimulus to stoke growth. The dollar has rallied 6.9 percent this year, making it the top performer among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has gained 5.6 percent, while the euro dropped 6.9 percent, the group’s worst performer.
The Russian ruble led declines among emerging markets on Tuesday, sliding 3.4 percent against the greenback.
Peso Slides
Mexico’s peso weakened on speculation U.S. interest-rate increases will diminish the appeal of higher-yielding emerging-market assets as the drop in oil prices dims the outlook for foreign investment.
The peso depreciated as much as 1.1 percent to 15.6468 per dollar, past the record set in March 2009 when a global recession throttled export demand, before closing at 15.6240, down 1 percent.
“It’s a stronger-U.S.-dollar story,” Peter Dragicevich, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London, said by phone. “The general theme of the stronger dollar and markets positioning and looking to the Fed to raise rates later this year continues to come through.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Lananh Nguyen in New York at lnguyen35@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Greg Storey, Kenneth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/dollar-gains-as-fed-s-fisher-warns-against-delaying-rate-rise

"That would benefit the company as more than 80% of its total revenue is from WD and Seagate".

"Our company also has a strategic ‘two-way’ relationship with WD and Seagate. There are high barriers to enter to the HDD mechanical components manufacturing industry which puts us in a strategic position,” said Wong."

http://www.thestar.com.my/Story/?file=%2F2010%2F2%2F6%2Fbusiness%2F5618342

"Being one of the largest global hard disk component manufacturers, JCY benefits from the economies of scale."
http://www2.nst.com.my/business/bizbrief/jcy-back-in-the-black-with-q1-earnings-of-rm30m-1.489209

Supplier to big players such as WD and Seagate. JCY has maintained a good relationship with Western Digital (WD) since 1994 and Seagate since 2006. It has supplied WD with all its major components such as base plate, actuator arm, top cover and antidisc and it has also supplied Seagate with base plate since 2006 and antidisc since 2008. WD and Seagate are the world’s current top two players after the acquisition of Samsung by Seagate and Hitachi GST by WD. Both of them hold 85% of the HDD market share in terms of unit shipment in 1QCY12 from just 62% in 3QCY11 before the acquisitions. These big HDD OEMs nowadays rely on only two or three key suppliers and one or two secondary sources and this benefitted JCY since it is one of the key suppliers to these players.

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2012/09/27/1477294014--1047081320.pdf

Jcy is now the largest hdd component maker in the world with WD and Seagate getting 80% of their hdd components from Jcy. If Jcy were to suddenly disappear, both WD and seagate will be in trouble. You only have to look back at the floods to see how much hdd prices went up because of hdd component shortage. There are now few competitors left that have the size and scale to produce the quantities that WD and seagstr require and barriers to entry for new players are to high if you do not have economies of scale. Seagate and WD monopolise hdd, Jcy have monopolize hdd components. From a strategic point of view, Jcy is becoming very valuable for both seagate and WD and therefore it's only a question of time before it is bought out by either party to mitigate any risks to the supply of hdd components. The market cap for WD and segate means buying Jcy is like spending loose change. Medium term share price gain is great but it iis only a question of time before a bidding war takes place between seagate and WD to takeover Jcy.

Positives
favorable forex in long term (USD/Ringitt), steady increase in sales, monopilization of the industry due to consilidation (now in a strategic position to be taken over by WD or seagate as they already supply more then 80% of components for both companies), stable earnings growth compared to the past, proven consistent dividend payer (attractive to funds), strong Q1 earnings with 3Q of earnings left for the year.

Risks
Sudden breakthrough in SSD technology to allow SSD price to match HDD (unlikely in the near term as significant $ is required to further develop SSD to make it cheaper). Sudden reversal of earnings into losses again (unlikely given the above positives). No more upside on the share price as the current price already factors in earnings for the next 3 Quarters (unlikely). Share price already had a run up from .50 to now 74 in the last 6 months and no more steam left? (unlikely as the price was originally about what it was now (.74) before it was sold down heavily to .50 due to factory fire and global october sell down (ebola etc). the price has simply recovered to what it was prior to these 2 events in september/october).

Based on the above, what is the risk of the current share price dropping? Unlikely. The potential for more upside on the price is high given the positives (while paying dividend at the same time). Risks are low and probablity of reward is high at current share price.

Thats got nothing to do with the owners 75%. Its about the 25% public shareholding spread which may be slightly affected from time to time due to a number of reasons, eg company share buy backs which it has done previously etc. If YKK acquires or disposes any of his shares he must disclose this to bursa/public. Do you see any announcements over the last 5 years which advised YKK has sold any of his shares (75%). if so paste the link here.

During the flood there were more then 8 call warrants against JCY with all the exercise prices well below the IPO price. There are currently no CW on JCY. The owner is bound by the Bursa listing requirements and if he buys/sells he must disclose this to bursa/public. If his holdings exceed or fall below the allowable share holding spread (75/25) bursa will issue him with a notice. This has never happened since JCY was listed 5 years ago.

Lohman - 3.2702 on 1/10/14, 3.3085 on 1/11/14, 3.4325 on 1/12/14 and 3.4977 on 31/12/14 = 3.37 average rate over 3 months and still trending up (weakening against USD) and currently 3.65. Whats the point you are trying to make? The appreciating USD and subsequent
forex gains are a bad thing for the company? Sounds like you are worried that you sold off too early. from reading through your previous posts, you have been caught with pants down before. You better be smarter this time and buy in again after the next result is announced when the share price is rm1+.

thx faye. I figured as much. the last quarter profit of 50m was based on exchange
rate of 3.2MYR against the USD (between Oct and Dec). The ringitt has since weakened more (currently 3.65) and the USD continues to raise (despite the fed not even increasing interest yet). Continued ringitt weakening win for JCY, continued USD raising also win for JCY. USD will continue to raise in anticipation of fed rate raise in the next few months. When the rate raise happens the USD will surge even more due to more $ piling back to the USD. Also worth noting the USD has been at all time low since GFC and the USD is recovering from the all time lows as the economy recovers and is not a temporary currency gain. This means the continued growth in JCY profits are not due to temporary USD currency gains, but a recovery of its earnings due to the recovery of the USD. Expect profits to keep growing as the USD keeps appreciating/recovering. Share price should go past rm1+ easily in the coming months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/ringgit-weakens-most-in-a-month-before-release-of-fed-minutes