better benchmark is BPI instead of BDI or BCI... Recent uplift of BDI is mainly come from capesize and maybulk do not have capesize vessel. Be optimistic but not too overly optimistic. If not, may harm you more than good.

https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-panamax?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=14714441741&utm_content=546922691688&utm_term=dsa-923342536302_&GL_Ad_ID=546922691688&GL_Campaign_ID=14714441741&gclid=CjwKCAjwtfqKBhBoEiwAZuesiPuXmW7RwqQJNZAGWldnZwYcePdzbS1n3u49qI0BqAzpURPTdv2jChoCSkgQAvD_BwE

Refer to BDI is not a good benchmark for maybulk. Should directly refer to BPI since 3 out of 5 vessels in maybulk are kamsarmax. Anyway, it's high, just not as high as BDI or BCI.

it's time to forecast the Q3 result:
Q3 average TCE= 25k USD
Hire day = 500 (assume 6 vessel in average in Q3, before completed 2 sold vessel, still can operate)
Gross revenue = 500 x 25k USD x 4.15 = RM 52mil (net of voyage expense)
operation cost = RM 23mil
Net operating profit = RM 29mil
One-off gain from 2 vessel = RM50mil
PAT is around RM79mil.. finger crossed.

"Asian dry bulk owners take the lead in accepting containers on deck - Splash247" https://splash247.com/asian-dry-bulk-owners-take-the-lead-in-accepting-containers-on-deck/

Current valuation is around 15-17mil usd per vessel for supramax. On book should be around 10mil usd only. So you will get one off gain 5-7mil usd x 2. Convert to ringgit should be close to 50mil. + charter rate remain high. Easily 15-20mil for Q3. Next quarter result should be PAT around rm65-70mil.

Personally don't think so. Maybulk get use to trade vessels in the past. But with 5 fleets on hand, the potential revenue is quite limited. Hopefully they will cash out to trade some younger vessels. Never worried about Q3 or Q4 2021 result. Should be good since it's a peak season for Maybulk. 2021 is great year for Maybulk. But I plan to hold longer than that. Hopefully Maybulk starting to have longer term strategy and start to buy younger fleets then it is more sustainable in higher share price

Mixed feeling. Result as expected,good. But sell 2 more vessels to get one off gain next quarter. Can be 20mil gain for each vessel since +75% value compare to last year end valuation. Next quarter PAT can be reach 20mil + 40mil (one off) =60mil. So hold or sell?

I will use end July estimation price for Q3 forecast if my estimation for Q2 is close to actual. Fingers crossed.

chief999, that one is refer to Q3 result. Also, estimation price in those link should be spot price. So have to use 2-3months spot price to estimate coming quarter result. i.e for Q1 result is using end Jan for estimation. Q2 is using end April. Also, dont think that selling vessel make so many money, just 1 handysize with almost 10 years old. Assume no gain/loss in this transaction.

If using estimated rates @ 30 Jun 2021 for Q3 21 forecast result, net profit can be close to RM50mil. It is better than my expectation. Fingers closed.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-june-30-2021/

I'm using estimation in the path below (end of April) to estimate Q2 2021 result
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-april-28-2021/
Also, if you refer to Q1 21 Maybulk actual result, it's quite close to estimated rates @ 28 Jan 2021
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-january-27-2021/

Forecast for Q2 2021: Hire day for Q2 should be around 580 days (with 7 vessels) with average TCE 20k USD. Revenue after net of cost of vessel = 20k x 4.15 (Currently exchange) x 580 = RM48mil , operating cost should be around RM20mil+. Net profit is expected to be around Rm23-28mil

@chief999 my Q2 estimation at PAT 30mil is before they release Q1 result. So have to adjust it accordingly with 7 vessels left in Q2 2021. TCE 20k is too optimistic in my view, im still using TCE 15-18k in my own forecast. Thus my estimation for next Q PAT should be around 20mil for Q2 2021. there are some limitation there if vessels remain 7. anyway, 20mil PAT is still good resul. 80mil annual PAT with current market value of 730mil, forward PE is still single digit.

@sharonchong
Compare to glove sector is not appropriate in Dry Bulk business. Malaysia is the top production in glove sector and also benefits of geographical indications. This is not the case for dry bulk business. As long as you got vessel, you can do the business.

But don't get me wrong, I'm still positive to dry bulk business and i hold some share of Maybulk.

Pros:
1. BDI is on uptrend now. If can sustain the current level of BDI, definitely will benefit Maybulk.
2. Maybulk vessel is quite new and average age of 5+ years. Operational cost should be remain
3. Demand vs Supply. Demand is remain strong for now and supply is remain low for at least for coming 2-3 years. A Stimulus Plan in US should keep the demand strong for raw materials.
4. Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad should be no ticket left behind for Maybulk. Should not have big sell off for Maybulk.

Cons:
1. Maybulk only have 7 vessels for coming Q2 2021. Not sure is there a plan for Maybulk to buy more vessels in future. So far i did not heard any. If not, the profit will limited at 15mil-20mil max per quarter. It's good but not great.


From Sharochong:
Money from other sectors are pouring in due to MCO 3.0 and high Baltic index.. And Maybulk is lucky as it does not being affected by lock down, and it's also the only counter doing dry bulk shipping in Malaysia.. What if there's only one glove company in Malaysia during the pandemic... Can you imagine?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-june-02-2021/
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-may-05-2021/

the charter rates are remain high in June for all sizes except Capesize and Maybulk do not have Capesize for now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-fundamentals-support-new-rally-after-latest-overcorrection/

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-may-19-2021/

2021 Q1 vs 2020 Q1, 8 vessel vs 10 vessel, operating expense reduce 12mil (23mil vs 35mil), 6 mil saving each vessel.
Even with Q1 21 TCE 12860 USD, average revenue (net of voyage expenses) = 41.7mil/8 vessels= RM5 mil.
Mean that if Maybulk maintain this 2 old vessels, they need to spend RM2mil more in operating expense. It's consider a good move to dispose loss making vessel to maintain high profit margin.

Q1 21 margin is around 35%. With expected TCE18k usd next Q, profit margin should be around 60%. Next Q2 result is targeting at least RM20mil. Let's wait for another 3 months.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
Extending losses for a fifth straight session, 2795 today. Remained high but with 5 straight losses, a bit worrying. Good news is supramax index was up 14 points, continue uptrend.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
BDI drop to 2856. But supramax index remained slight increase.

Management are quite conservative in their forecast and uncertain for coming Q3 and Q4.
Let's us wait for fruitful Q1 and Q2 result and check for Q3 Q4 BDI at that time.
If the demand is continue strong, it is worth for us to hold longer term. In addition, during AGM, did mentioned that no more impairment loss this year (suppose to mark it as gain instead of loss since 2nd hand value for dry bulk vessel increase a lot this year).

TCE is time charter equivalent. It's a daily rental rate. You may refer to their quarterly report. Maybulk did show this figure in their quarterly report.

Have to wait for Q2 results 1st and estimate the average TCE again. By then only know what to do next. If average TCE for maybulk can reach 15k usd and above, for me anything below rm1 is worth to collect more. Anyway, won't do anything now, I have not much bullet to collect more now. Lol.

Base on my estimation for Q1 2021, revenue is around RM50mil with PAT RM10mil. It is assumed that average TCE 12k USD and Hire Day 860 day for Q1 2021.

Base on current BDI, Q2 2021 average TCE should be able to achieve >18k USD. Then Q2 2021 can reach revenue RM70mil with PAT RM30mil. Forward PE is around 6 only if it's true.

Let's wait for Q1 financial result to verify all my assumption.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-january-06-2021/

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-march-31-2021/

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-may-12-2021/

I just hold although we know that next quarter result is nothing fancy. when we have next Q or next next Q result, we should have better idea how to value Maybulk.

@ Lawman, with today volume 120mil share, nothing to worry about BPMP, i suspect they are lesser than 30min share now. let's wait for BDI 4000 then we just sit and watch the show.

the volume is higher than goreng stocks. crazy. Hope that BPMB no more bullet to sell. haha..

top 5 volume today and it's GREEN.. haha..

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
BDI 3266 today although mainly due capesize index. But it's still a good news to dry bulk business.

breakwave dry bulk shipping etf historical high now.

Assumed 25% of selling for today and yesterday are from BPMB, they only left 30million share. should be no more bullet before raya. Look at the share price for Star Bulk Carrier Corp yesterday, +12.8%. 5 years record high.

https://www.drycargomag.com/dry-bulk-week-17-2021

I'm not too familiar with technical. but today's volume is extremely high. it is only comparable to volume during 2016 April which is sound good to me. Haha..

hopefully, BPMB no more bullet. then we can see the price naturally mark to market.

Next week should be the last week we saw BPMP in insider news.

The Baltic Dry Index rose 2.4% to an over 10-1/2-year high of 2,957 on Wednesday, extending gains for an eleventh straight session, linked to the strong performing Brazilian iron ore exports as key markets replenish supplies that were drawn down in the year of the pandemic. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, rose 3.6% to a more than one-year high of 4,680; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore, advanced 1.3% to 2,584. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index edged up 11 points to 2,140.
source: Baltic Exchange

No one will care about impairment loss or gain. Unless they plan to dispose all the vessels (which I doubt anyone will sell their fleet now). As long as BDI remained high (average 2500 until end of year) especially index for Panamax and Supramax, maybulk should be perform well.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

few benchmarking:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bdry?ltr=1
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBLK/

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/finally-some-backed-optimism-in-the-dry-bulk-sphere-capes-benefiting-from-chinas-hunger-for-iron-ore/

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-latest-data-suggests-china-will-keep-feeding-demand-growth/

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/freight-rate-spike-puts-dry-bulk-carriers-back-spotlight

A good start

Hi, everyone. I'm back.. Started to collect AA since last Friday..

no more 20% today, sad.....

wish day day like this then this weekend I can enjoy big meal liao..