you will never be able to time the market, O&G companies may fall into negative account deficit and hence a loss making company for some of them while banking counter will still be profitable but at a lower profit. If you are taking a long term view, banking counter is still good to hold on to medium to long term, at least you get your dividends when it is due, can you say the same for o&g?

I have never seen a national bank being beaten down by the foreign fund and yet there's nothing that they will do but just let the price slide down...

Consolidation will expand the bank profits, the short term cost of retrenchment will be absorb by the long term savings. Anyway stock price move ahead of results, hence will be too late to buy after merger. Looking at the analysis chart, CIMB is at 5 year low, the down side is limited while chances of moving up is enormous...I doubt it will go any lower from here. Depending on the macro market, once the oil and larger market stabilize, the stock will out perform many other counters.