1. Brent crude oil prices may touch $150 a barrel if military action against Syria sparks a broader regional spill-over and causes supply disruptions in major producers like Iraq, Societe Generale warned.

2. Under such a scenario, the French bank classified a "significant supply disruption in Iraq or elsewhere" as affecting between 500,000 to two million barrels a day. "Brent could spike briefly to $150" if this materializes, said Michael Wittner, Global Head of Oil research at Societe Generale

3. Brent crude prices rose more than $2 on Wednesday to trade as much as $117.13, highs not seen since February this year.

So to the so called genius (in denial...hhehehehe) in this thread, care to share your opinion on how the future hold for AA Group in this case?

Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Can the current crisis lead to civil unrest in India?

Crises tends to do that to a lot of countries. Even in Europe, during the height of the global financial crisis, many governments fell because of civil unrest.

When people do not have jobs, they have lesser to lose and so they go to the streets. From that perspective, it is probably a good thing that India has an election coming along.

It gives an outlet for citizens to express their dissatisfaction through ballet boxes than through the street.

Beyond that, the question really is, what is the big idea to solve this problem? I am waiting for elections to happen so that we can get some clarity on policy direction.

Probably after election, there is more room to use fresh capital to put in place some painful, but necessary policies.

Maybe a new regime change? What the future hold for AA India, folks?

Folks, AA recorded a low of rm2.43 back in 21/03/2011! Will this low be it support level for today now trading at rm2.44?

Only time will tell!

Too much optimism is denial, so face the facts and move on. It is wise to direct your anger towards problems & focus your energies on answers not excuses.

When investing never fall in love with stocks as they are not faithful & loyal partners! Those in denial maybe have fallen in love!

When AA is up everyone become an instant genius. But when AA is down everyone have inferiority complex syndrome!

What happenend to the """economist talk, stock market experts talk, held the stock for few hours or days, panic at price movement, monitor the price all the time, think a stock price is just a number.. Never forget you're buying an ownership of a business"""?

Can't be applied in the market now, right? Its only a waste money going to these so called "talks". Just a scam in a bullish market.

They won't give talks if they are able to practice it in the stock market and make ton money. Hahahahahaha!!

Now a big question, a new low in the making again?

Remember folks, massive volume traded:
22/08/13 36,763,400
23/08/13 26,186,000
26/08/13 10,948,400
27/08/13 7,183,100

Force sell & weak holders should set in soon. Will rm2.48 low recorded in the morning session, stand? Your guess, folks!

Global funds have withdrawn about $44 billion from emerging market stock and bond funds since the end of May through last week, folks.

Emerging markets have been reeling for the past few weeks on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce its $85 billion a month bond-buying programme as soon as next month.

As the selloff in deficit-stricken emerging market nations deepened, Indonesian exchanged traded funds saw heavy redemptions from U.S. investors overnight.

Indonesian shares tumbled as much as 3.3 percent to a 14-month trough on Wednesday, while Philippine stocks sank 5.6 percent to a nine-month low.

Indonesia's central bank board will meet on Thursday in a surprise move amid widespread speculation it will have to raise interest rates again to defend the fast-falling rupiah, now its lowest since April 2009.

Interest rate hike? Wowwwwwwwww........one of the remedy to make a perfect storm?

Stocks tumbled in a "beat down" that was deserved and it's not over yet.

The number one problem is Syria and the uncertainty over what is going to happen there.

Whenever investors don't know what's going to happen in the Middle East, they get a real selloff because you have to assume the worst.

Adding misery to the markets also the QE taper, weak currency & high fuel price.

The other issue is Washington–namely, the upcoming fight over the debt ceiling, which is not priced into the market yet.

A perfect storm in the making? Hmmmmmmmm...only time will tell!

Folks, since QE is mostly about lowering long-term rates, it shouldn't be hard to understand that its tapering would send rates soaring on the long end.

When the US Fed stops buying Treasurys, foreign and domestic investors will do so as well.

This means for a period of time there won't be anyone left to buy Treasurys unless prices first plunge.

The effects of rising rates will be profound on currencies, equity prices, real estate values and economies across the globe.

It would be wise to prepare your portfolio for a massive interest rate shock in the near future.

Be on alert, folks! A perfect will soon follow? Careful now! Heheheheheh!!

Folks, the selloff thus far appears orderly and driven more by an absence of buyers than a sellers' stampede.

The danger, though, is if the conflict is prolonged and starts pushing up oil prices.

The longer this goes on, then you extrapolate and look at the effect it will have on the consumer.

If prices at the oil rise markedly and quickly, then what you've got is a pullback in consumer spending. These issues are never isolated, folks!

The situation bears close watching, as the market faces the multiple threats of a Federal Reserve stimulus withdrawal, a oil price surge, weakening ringit and a wobbly economy.

Folks, the longer-term market tone remains barring any serious technical damage done to the emerging market bourses.

The current weakness may continue over the intermediate term. In that case, investors should stay on their toes.

You want to keep your exit strategy intact, right! Heheheheheh!!

AA Price Performamce:

1 month:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63 - Low
(06/08/13) Rm3.22 - High

6 months:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63 - Low
(05/06/13) Rm3.54 - High

One Year:
(21/12/12) Rm2.49 - Low
(29/08/12) Rm3.64 - High

AA created a new low in the morning session at Rm2.48 today! Now the big question, will it hold?

Trouble in Syria only adds to the laundry list of problems the stock market faces as summer fades into September.

All in all, it's a stock market that has transformed from full throttle risk-on to a skittish environment where even the bulls are getting antsy.

"The tone among investors has turned more cautious as they assess the investment landscape for the remainder of the year," said Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Jaffray.

With the confluence of negative market factors, Johnson advised investors to be selective.

Any suggestion on reccession proof stocks, folks? Airlines? Hehehehehehe!!

The biggest hurdle to the valuation trade is market momentum that could saddle you with big shortterm or maybe longterm losses for some stocks.

Investors will start looking at valuations again and see there is lot of value.

The time frame, folks? 6 months? 12 months? Not less than that, maybe!

"I am not looking at valuations but technicals and fundamentals. Situation wise you would want to be long but no one wants to grab a falling knife" said Marcelo Assalin, lead portfolio manager at ING Investment Management for emerging local debt strategies.

Dare to buy now, folks? Heheheheheh!!

Folks, companies from the emerging markets can sustain return on equity (ROE) levels only by taking more debt! So how?

Remember folks, ROE measures how much profit a firm makes with shareholder's money.

It would be inaccurate to perceive Emerging Markets equities as cheap relative to returns they generate because their quality of RoE is deteriorating more rapidly than developed markets.

"I'd be surprised if Brent broke $120 on fear alone," said Trevor Houser, a partner at Rhodium Group who leads the firm's energy and natural resources work.

"I wouldn't be surprised if it went to $120 immediately after a strike, and then I think the market would wait and see what kind of reaction that (the attack) elicited.

Careful with airlines stock, folks!

Folks, the potential for U.S. intervention in Syria has sent jitters through the oil market and should keep prices high, but the event's ultimate impact will be determined by what happens after the military strike.

Any price escalation has also been mitigated by the fact that the U.S. has ramped up oil production, reducing reliance on imported crude from Africa and the Middle East and allowing that supply to reach other markets in Asia and Europe.

A falling knife? Anyone? Still in denial state, meh? Well a little bit far too late listening to me now!

It going to be a long & painful wait for the price to recover above Rm3. This will only be possible if the ringgit strengthen below rm3.10 against US dollar & jet fuel below USD110!

So how long will that be? Heheheheheheheh!!

What a perfect storm in the red sea! Only when the tide goes out we discover who is swimming naked!

Heheheheheheh!!

AA Price Performamce:

1 month:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63*- Low
(06/08/13) Rm3.22 - High

6 months:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63*- Low
(05/06/13) Rm3.54 - High

One Year:
(21/12/12) Rm2.49 - Low
(29/08/12) Rm3.64 - High

A new low again today? Time will tell! Hahahahahahahah!!

US oil prices soared to their highest level in 18 months on Tuesday as Western threats to punish Syria for alleged chemical attacks raised worries over Middle East crude supplies.

The benchmark New York contract WTI crude for October delivery jumped $3.09 to hit $109.01 a barrel, a level last seen in February 2012.

In London, Brent North Sea oil hit its highest price in six months, reaching $114.36, up $3.63 from Monday.

The cost environment for AA remains hostile with high fuel prices compounded by a weak Ringgit!

Total Debt:
(2Q13) Rm8.813b
(1Q13) Rm8.464b

Investors have short memories!

Airlines will be the most affected by the weak currencies against US dollar, high jet fuel price & surge in borrowings rate!

Remember folks, a small leak will sink a great ship. Careful now! Wakakakakakaka!!

Changes in Director's Interest: Dato' Abdel Aziz @ Abdul Aziz Bin Abu Bakar:
Disposed 05/06/2013 50,000 at Rm3.500
Acquired 23/08/2013 50,000 at Rm2.660 (Hmmmmm..)

EPF still in the confused state on what to do with your money:
Acquired 22/08/2013 2,433,900
Disposed 22/08/2013 3,000,000
Acquired 22/08/2013 1,276,200

Must be sleeping on the job. Foreign funds are dumping before & after the 2QE13 announcement and yet EPF is still confuse! Hahahahahaha!!

AK 5133 27/08/2013 09:00 PM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5229 27/08/2013 08:25 PM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
QZ 8162 27/08/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 1826 27/08/2013 07:00 AM SINGAPORE-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5221 27/08/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 1455 27/08/2013 12:00 AM HO CHI MINH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1825 27/08/2013 10:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SINGAPORE CANCELLED
AK 5134 27/08/2013 09:25 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED
AK 5220 27/08/2013 09:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED
AK 1454 27/08/2013 07:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-HO CHI MINH CANCELLED
AK 1440 27/08/2013 06:30 PM KUALA LUMPUR-HANOI CANCELLED
QZ 8163 27/08/2013 04:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED
AK 5228 27/08/2013 04:30 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Folks this is a short selling done on 22/08/13 with 1,520,000 shares traded at an average price of Rm2.737, a day after the 2QE13 announcement. Who could that be? Tune, foreign funds of local funds?

What about short selling days or weeks before the 2QE13 announcement? Investors have short memories!

Criteria for short selling approved securities?
• Average daily market capitalization of more than RM500 million for the past 3 months
• At least 50 million shares in public float
• Average monthly volume traded of more than 1 million units for the past 12 calendar months

Investors interested to short-sell would need to open a designated Regulated Short Selling trading account with their brokers. All trades have to be executed via this designated RSS trading account.

Before any short-selling orders can be executed, investors must provide a confirmation to the broker (i) that they are not an associate, and (ii) that have borrowed the approved Securities or have procured confirmation from an Authorised SBL that securities are available for borrowing.

Folk, the wise things to do when investing is to use your head & not to follow your emotions! Also never fall in love with any stock especially an airline stocks.

The cost environment for AA remains hostile with high fuel prices compounded by a weak ringgit. So folks don't be the one caught swimming naked when the tide goes out!

Hahahahahahahahah!!

AA Price Performamce:

1 month:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63*- Low
(06/08/13) Rm3.22 - High

6 months:
(27/08/13) Rm2.63*- Low
(05/06/13) Rm3.54 - High

One Year:
(21/12/12) Rm2.49 - Low
(29/08/12) Rm3.64 - High

*a new low!

AA price today closed at Rm2.64! Remember folks, optimism is denial, so face the facts and move on. It is wise to direct your anger towards problems not people, to focus your energies on answers not excuses.

All the best, folks!

Folks, when AA is up everyone become an instant genius. But when AA is down near to it 1 year low everyone have inferiority complex syndrome!

Wonder why? Heheheheheheheh!!

To those falling in love with AA: Beware of the little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship!

In late Sep 2012, Tune bought shares after the announcement of Malindo:
Total shares: 68,030,000 at rm2.91 per share = Rm197,727,720.00

Recently Wellington Management saw a small leak which has triggered these:
Disposed 19/08/2013 1,758,800 (Before 2QE13 announcement)
Disposed 20/08/2013 5,782,890 (Before 2QE13 announcement)
Disposed 21/08/2013 1,231,000 (Before 2QE13 announcement)
Disposed 22/08/2013 3,357,700 ( After 2QE13 announcement)

Meanwhile EPF still in a deep slumber:
Acquired 19/08/2013 2,830,400
Acquired 20/08/2013 4,965,000
Disposed 20/08/2013 1,333,700
Acquired 21/08/2013 3,053,600
Disposed 21/08/2013 25,700

Will Tune buy again to instill confident that the 2H13 will be better than 1H13? Beware folks as a small leak will sink a great ship!

Now a big question, a new low in the making? Remember folks, massive volume traded on 22/08/13 (36,763,400) & 23/08/13 (26,186,000).

Force sell should set in soon. Will rm2.64 (...oopssss new low already at rm2.63) low stand? Heheheheheheh!!

Examples of complacency are all too easy to find.

In Indonesia, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seems to have forgotten that political stability only goes so far if corruption and inefficiency remain rampant.

In Thailand, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been too busy tweaking the constitution to notice a potentially disastrous bubble in household debt.

In the Philippines, President Benigno Aquino forgot that 7.8% growth only matters if you create lots of jobs.

In Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Razak has been too focused on trying to shore up his political position to tend to a current account that is swinging toward deficit.

“While the US has been given a free pass on the twin deficit issue, emerging-market countries will not be so lucky,” says Simon Grose-Hodge, head of investment strategy for South Asia at LGT Group in Singapore.

Asia should remember the years it squandered between 1994 and 1997. There are all too many similarities to the last few years, a period during which Asia should have been reducing vulnerabilities not basking in its headlines.

Source: Bloomberg

Asian governments need to face up to realities. Perhaps they can live without American and European consumers for four or five years, but thriving beyond that requires more buoyant and self-supporting domestic economies.

Also, if you are going to hitch your fortunes to another economy say, China’s it would be better not to choose a developing one whose growth model may have run its course.

The test, as it was in 1994, will be what Asia does now to modernize its economies.

A different kind of smugness has afflicted Asia in recent years. After the 2008 global crash, regional governments started believing their own press.

They were convinced they had decoupled from the West. Bankers were abandoning New York and London for Hong Kong and Singapore.

Asian debt had become a safe haven from turmoil in Europe. And, as China’s 1.3 billion people grew richer, the good times would keep rolling on.

Asia does indeed deserve a victory lap; the region has come a long way since 1997. But rapid growth and its unquestioned success in surviving the global meltdown has revived a hubris that policymakers need to own and analyse.

The price of this cockiness is mounting as currencies in Indonesia, Thailand and elsewhere suddenly seem toxic to investors. India is in chaos at a time when China’s growth trajectory is more uncertain than it has been in 15 years.

Asia’s real problem was hubris. All that hot money coursing in its direction in the 1990s made rapid growth too easy.

Policymakers were too busy signing foreign-direct investment (FDI) deals, attending ribbon-cutting ceremonies for factories and flashy skyscrapers, and congratulating themselves for surging stocks to do their real jobs.

Financial systems went neglected, unproductive investments accumulated and cronyism ran wild. Hahahahahahah!!

Folks, the same can’t be said of 1994, the year the Federal Reserve last reminded the world that its monetary policy is decided in Washington, not Bangkok, Jakarta or Seoul.

Then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan doubled benchmark interest rates over 12 months, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in bond-market losses and helping set the Asian financial crisis in motion.

The dollar’s post 1994 rally made currency pegs impossible to maintain, leading to devastating devaluations across the region.

Folks, it’s time to set our clocks back in Asia. Not to 1997, as many are recommending, but to 1994.

Memories of the former year remain raw. Currencies had gone into free fall and current-account deficits exploded.

Central bankers and IMF officials scurried to contain the chaos. It’s true that another 1997-like crisis is highly unlikely.

Today, exchange rates are more flexible, foreign-currency debt is lower, banks are healthier, countries are sitting on trillions of dollars of reserves, and economies are far more transparent.

The differences between 1997 and today trump the similarities.

Folks, we only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out! No hard feeling bro/sis as Warren Buffet & Peter Leech would sell anything to make money and that include their talks, books & etc! All the best bro/sis!

************************************

Posted by HJey > Aug 23, 2013 04:20 PM | Report Abuse
One simple question for everyone,
What would Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch does?
Listen to economist talk, stock market experts talk, held the stock for few hours or days, panic at price movement, monitor the price all the time, think a stock price is just a number...
Never forget you're buying an ownership of a business
Think about it and happy weekend

The biggest hurdle to the valuation trade is market momentum that could saddle funds with big shortterm losses.

"Investors will start looking at valuations again and see there is lot of value. The time frame? 6 months? 12 months? Not less than that," said Marcelo Assalin, lead portfolio manager at ING Investment Management for emerging local debt strategies.

"I am not looking at valuations but technicals and fundamentals," he said. "Valuation wise you would want to be long but no one wants to grab a falling knife."

John-Paul Smith, head of emerging equity strategy at Deutsche Bank says companies from the developing world can sustain return on equity (ROE) levels only by taking more debt.

Remember folks, ROE measures how much profit a firm makes with shareholder's money.

It would be inaccurate to perceive Emerging Markets equities as cheap relative to returns they generate because their quality of RoE is deteriorating more rapidly than developed markets.

1. Folks, of course some of these stocks are cheap for a reason and will stay cheap for years to come.

2. Bears will also note that slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock markets.

3. And falls in currencies real are a worry, eroding foreign investors' returns from local stocks.

1. Emerging markets are looking very cheap and the beaten-down prices could be a solid base for future returns, but funds should be prepared for more short-term losses if they take the plunge.

2. Stocks, bonds and currencies across the developing world are suffering a rout on a scale not seen for years. Asset price valuations look dirt cheap - versus emerging markets' own history and also possibly against their future prospects.

3. But on the downside, the impending rollback in Fed money printing will almost certainly drive up U.S. bond yields, the higher global borrowing costs seeping through to hit economic growth across the developing world! Hmmmm...borrowings rate will increase? High jet fuel price + weak currencies + increase borrowing rate? Disaster folks!

So how RUPIAH then?

On tuesday the rupiah lost 0.6 percent to 10,900 per dollar, its weakest since April 2009, in the local interbank market.

Traders said some corporates bought dollars above 11,000, while the central bank was spotted selling the greenback at lower levels. Jakarta stocks fell nearly 3 percent.

Forwards markets pointed to further declines in the rupiah with one month non deliverable forwards per dollar weakening to 11,708, its lowest since April 2009.

The one-month offshore/onshore forward spread widened to 700 basis points, the widest since November 2008, during the global financial crisis.

Some banks already placed dollar offers at 11,400-11,500 area. It won't take long to reach 11,500, the trader added.

What about PHILIPPINE PESO?

On tuesday the peso fell 0.4 percent to 44.445 per dollar, its softest since January 2011, as Manila stocks lost more than 4 percent.

Three, five and 10year government bond yields also rose.

How about the BAHT, folks?

The baht fell up to 0.7 percent to 32.160 to the greenback, its weakest since August 2010, pressured by capital outflows and dollar demand from importers.

The 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.31 percent, while the five-year yield advanced to 3.84 percent.

The baht's slide was limited as the central bank was spotted in the market, but it is on a falling trend, traders said.

The Thai currency is expected to weaken to 32.425, the 50 percent retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2013.

Hmmmmmm.......!!

Folks, the ringgit lost as much as 0.6 percent to 3.3300 per dollar, its weakest since June 2010, on selling from foreigners.

The Malaysian currency managed to stay firmer than the intraday low as the central bank was spotted buying the currency.

Still, the ringgit is seen heading to 3.3345, the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011.

Month-end dollar demand is usually strong, said an Asia bank trader in Singapore, adding that the ringgit was expected to weaken further.

With weak ringgit meaning the jet fuel price which is in US dollar will be more expensive! Careful now!

Folks, the Indian rupee fell towards record lows on Tuesday, leading slides among emerging Asian currencies with Southeast Asian units at multi-year lows as concerns over possible U.S. military action against the Syrian government dented risk sentiment.

The Indonesian rupiah hit a fresh four-year low on corporate dollar demand.

The Malaysian ringgit touched its lowest in more than three years on selling by foreigners, while the Thai baht hit a three-year low on capital outflows.

The Philippine peso fell to its weakest in more than two and a half years as local stocks plunged.

Syria escalated geopolitical risks and appetite for a safe haven. That will put pressure on Asian currencies.

Some of the currencies, like the rupee and the rupiah, are unlikely to see a recovery as their problems are not a short-term liquidity issue.

Even though they do their best, it will take a long time to stabilise their economies

So how now, buy & sell or hold folks?

European shares are set to open lower on Tuesday (27/6/13a) amid fears of a possible U.S. led military response to a suspected chemical attack in Syria.

The FTSE is called down 19 points at 6,473, the German Dax down 31 points at 8,404 and the French CAC down 22 points at 4,045!

Fasten your seat belt folks as more turbulence ahead! Hmmmm...danger..danger..danger!!

Folks, you want to know the truth? The truth hurts! Careful now!

Folks, Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday, while the Turkish lira hit a record low after the United States signaled possible military action against the Syrian government over a suspected chemical weapons attack.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, in the most forceful reaction yet to last week's gas attack outside Damascus, said President Barack Obama "believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable people.

The Turkish lira hit record lows of two to the dollar, pressured by the heightened concerns over neighboring Syria.

The Malaysian ringgit was also unloved, reaching a three-year low around 3.3290 per dollar.

There go your investments, folks! Careful!