doublesunday

doublesunday | Joined since 2017-04-18

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2022-07-01 01:34 | Report Abuse

Is Coastal the only oil and gas asset play company with a net cash position?

Stock

2021-12-14 02:26 | Report Abuse

PTRANS is a good company. I did invest in this company as well and it is my defensive stock choice. Steady income and dividend. I hope their business model works well and the management is able to source more terminals to manage. Project facilitation fee is a big sum of revenue and we do not know if this income stream is consistent over coming years? Their interview with ET Online, said they target 50% of the market share. and it should last ~5 years.

I think there is always a reason for a stock to become "undervalued". it might be a misunderstanding from Mr, market, and we need to know what is point Mr, market misunderstood the stock. I think this helps an investor to hold on when the stock price is falling and avoid value trap.

A lot of people who invested in this stock will consider the stock was undervalued "a lot". But how much is it undervalued? Is it really fair for analysts to give a targeted price of RM1.XX where they used Airport as reference. Bus terminal vs airport terminal, really can compare like it is?

We all know the only solid reason for a stock to go up is the company going to make more money. but how that money is used will influence the value of the company as well. payback debt, reinvest in high Capex business, distribute to shareholders, etc.

just trying to access the company from a different point of view.

Stock

2021-12-08 02:31 | Report Abuse

why the price stay low? let's do some calculations.

Total number of shares: 634,733,573

warrant : 158,683,393 (conversion price 0.75)

Assume the fair price is RM0.80 I think a lot of people will say it is still low.

Total cost to buy up the business is
Total number of share plus warren: 634733573+158683393=793,416,966
market caps = 0.8*793416966= 634million

Debts: 300M
Cash: ~200M (per q3 report have ~90m cash, warren conversion will gather 120M).

enterprise value is market cap + debt - cash = 634m+300m-200m =734M.

734M buy you 2 terminal is a good deal?

the current share price is RM0.6, which values the company at ~387M. EV at around 587M.

the warrant with conversion price at 0.75, and 300M debt is a big roadblock for the share price to go up. may the company able to release the value for Kampar Putra Sentral to push up the valuation for this asset.

Stock

2020-12-06 17:05 | Report Abuse

@DannyArcher

Thanks for the good comment and perspective. I will take this into consideration in my investment, and watch out the margin closely.

Stock

2020-12-06 16:25 | Report Abuse

@DannyArcher

Glad we both agree Time is a good company lead by good management. I like the CEO Afzar so much, seeing him bring Time from nothing company to Time now a day. Here is his talk at tedtalk 9 years ago, you may take a look https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpBbV2elOBE. Wish to talk to him to understand Malaysia internet landscape again.

I myself just using my phone as a portable hot spot, but if I observe people around me, most household with more than 2 people will have a fix line. And if i talk to my colleague included fresh graduates, most of them having fix line at their house as well. The only groupp of people don't have fix line is usually young couple who stay on their own, or a people who stay on their own, it is just too luxury to have a fix line if only used by 1 or 2 person right? However my observation is just the current trend, how it going in the future we can do our own estimate, and this is the beauty of investment, time will tell if we are right or wrong. For me, I think in 5 years' time, I don't see the trend people will drop their fixline and move to mobile, and I think the retail business for Time will be gaining ground in the market, as they provide the best product.

I think growth is a factor we need to consider when we value a company. For example, if we assume a company going to double its revenue in 3 years, how much PE we will be paid for the company? Tech sector is a high growth sector, as you can see most tech company where investor believe to have high growth in business is now value at 40 PE, and Vitrox at 80. High PE is not a problem if the company able keep up with revenue growth. but if the revenue growth is not meeting the target, the stock will fall. I do have high PE company in my portfolio as well.

Come back to Time. How do we evaluate this company?
1. This company is in a duopoly business at Malaysia.
2. Most of its revenue is recurring.
3. It provided around 10% growth in revenue and profit anually.

Currently, the market gave PE27. Some investors said it is too expensive, and some investors said the PE not yet justify the company's intrinsic value. Nestle is on PE 58. market not only provided high PE for high growth company, market also give high PE to stable company who can give a consistent earning.

I believe there is no best company to invest, as different investors have different goal and risk appetites.

Stock

2020-12-06 01:59 | Report Abuse

When we transition from 3G to 4G around 2013, we still using the single-digit Mbps fix line. At that time people said we no longer need fix line internet like streamy as 4G potentially can support up to 100Mbps. Now 5G coming and fix line is at 1Gbps or commonly at 100Mbps.

Content on the internet will changes, how people using the internet will change, just like when we were at 3G, no people are watching so much video on their handphone, and from time to time you hear people complain they got charged thousand for their mobile bill, and now people watching, posting so much video to the internet every day thru mobile internet. whereas people start using fix line internet for gaming, streaming of FHD 1080 movie on TV, or download game(game size is getting bigger and bigger).

Check out Google Stadia. Check out how big the file is a for 4k movie(around 100G). PS5 model no longer come with a disc drive, mean all game will thru download.

Fix line will not die, more and more people will need fix line for their daily media consumption and entertainment.

Data don't lie, retail segment for Time up 27% year over year, Maxis fiber up 23% YoY.

Time is a good company, seeing its capex is dropping, probably due to no new undersea cable investment, hopefully, management will be kind with dividend.

Stock

2020-06-19 02:18 | Report Abuse

3 years ago I sold Time due to concern on the high PE and high capex. Bought into time now as pass 3 year result was proven capex bring back money. Look at EBITDA, it reaching 500M.