investmalysia Someone said want privatize topglove at 80billion. LMAO. 1% also don’t know he/she got or not
20/09/2020 4:13 PM

Boss aiming for Fortune 500...did u buy or not...so much fake news.

SK1008 I believe the sell downs of Topglov and Supermx masterminded by the IBs is most likely towards the end. They should have bought back the battered stocks at the opportune time as a hedge against subsequent rise of their Call Warrants outstanding.
It is also to their interests to see that both stocks climb higher for them to use the higher margins to mitigate the losses with the old Call Warrants.
20/09/2020 4:08 PM

Yup...now their Risk management team...also never expect...Covid19 Pandemic keep on going...n glove counters market value keep on going up n up...so now they must analyse clearly. They are smart people n very cunning also. If not why they like to issue derivatives, lot of money involved.

As Buffett say, "derivatives are weapons of mass destruction." Why he said that...u analyse lah.

hahalolwtf Tan Sri thinks his company worth more than Maybank?

Maybank every quarter >RM1bil net profits for the last 10 years. Maybank gave more than 6% dividend returns for every year for the last 10 years. Maybank never used share buybacks to sustain share price.

PUI! What is topglove?
20/09/2020 3:43 PM

Make it #20 years lah...#6% per annum...aiyoo...yoo...bonus issue every 8 years...okay lah maybe rate of return...@20% per annum.

TopGlove is...#1,750% per annum...Ask u choose...lah.

Axe888 if IB sell at bargain price sure got the buyer. Even Tan Sri will also buy back. Lets enjoy and watch how far IB can cope with their losses by continue press down.
20/09/2020 3:48 PM

Yup...I think boss still can take out 10% to buyback... around RM 220million.

jasonred79 unless TG diversifies into other fields other than just gloves, it's going to be hard for them to grow. Like, Genting for instance, having just 1 casino on top of a mountain didn't give much room to grow. So, they expanded into other areas.
...
Right now, property prices are quite cheap, I expect that if TG took their 11b windfall profits and made some solid ventures into property development, they could indeed make some really solid growth!
20/09/2020 3:45 PM

Did you check their current assets of securities held...RM 1.6 billions. I think boss also bought other companies shares.

Makeabuck That is if ur ep is above 7.50
20/09/2020 3:34 PM

Fundamental analysis...aren't just numbers...look into those big whales holding n buying...plus those insiders holding n buying... roughly what are those average prices they bought. Insiders are running their business day in n out. Watch their every movements n what they have to say. Maybe you can go n find out from their employees, how many will hold their ESOS long term. What are the percentage.

Makeabuck Now that we know there will be selldown the strategy is different for me...sell a small portion at 20% gain from ep and buy in when there is sell down...capitalize on it...if its not 20% return capital gain i would not think its worth it...but its good to hold some access cash to buy when hits sub 7...what ya think?
20/09/2020 3:32 PM

Yup...we never know...but looking at those derivatives we cannot really know, what are their hedging strategy...but next year definitely will price higher. Crisis nobody can predict...what type of crisis. So all those noises are just distraction...focus on your FA n understand what products u invest. Plus who is your boss. All those FA, very, very important for long term.

jasonred79 Eh I'm not comfortable buying in above RM8. but below RM3, I would buy in for sure!

FY2020 n FY2021...two different valuation. Unless financial crisis...u can get cheaper price...but during...Mar this year... TopGlove didn't drop much...in fact shoot up around...#6.00.

jasonred79 @geary, so, if I want to buy and keep in 30 years, what should be my entry level? as i said, i think RM5 would be a decent entry level price.
... Ah, in october a bunch of warrants mature and their exercise price is around RM2. c66 =RM1.50, c67= 1.67,c68=2.07.
If those crazy IBs push TG below RM3, I definitely agree with you, it's pretty much a no brainer to just buy everything you can get and hold it like crazy!

Oh not just the IBs... we can buy from that TPrm2 guy as well.
20/09/2020 3:12 PM

At present valuation...Buy on stages like me...@<9.00-7.00...buy lesser... below...@7.00...can buy more...But do remember to sell some to hold free cash... volatility isn't risk...if u know your games n strategy. Good luck.
20/09/2020 3:18 PM

Be focus...invest only in earnings growth, dividend, bonus, where boss take care of shareholders. Earnings growth must be at least average 10 years above >#18%...ROE...>#12%. So it's not easy to find in Bursa. Focus Value Growth/Dividend Investing.

geary jasonred79 @morpheus61, keep for how long?
20/09/2020 2:45 PM

#30 years... Untill TopGlove is 60 years old... Retirement age. Probably your capital value down...@75% in #30 yrs...but your rate of return is...#1750% per annum.
20/09/2020 2:56 PM

Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai...now is 62 years old...So by 25/30 years he already retired. 100%...HOLD.

Morpheus61 jasonred, no need to estimate. Just tell the IB's we don't want their TP assessment. We Want their shares. Sell more. We buy more and we keep.
20/09/2020 2:42 PM

Yup.

loong66 My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had 2000 TG shares from Mar 2001 IP0. After check with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issue, 2000 shares now amount to 244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM

Just follow this guy father...Bought only 2,000 shares at IPO price of... RM 2.70/RM 5,400...Mar 2001...kept inside his locker... forgot about...his son asked him then he realised. Now market value... RM 1.9 millions... That's dividend/value growth investing.

supersaiyan3 I did DCF briefly and get like RM11.40.
20/09/2020 11:05 AM

Tangible valuation...#33% are Purely FA...<@8.00...Fair,..<@6.00...Undervalued...#33%...Need to study historical TA price movements... Interest rates at present... macroeconomic factors...plus market directions...on such products or services...#33%... management efficiency...or intangibles valuation.

Not easy bros...Right.

Axe888 @hahalollwtf, yes ASP and Price will fall will fall. We got your message. You can go sleep already. You bark whole day already.
20/09/2020 12:01 AM

Woof...woof...woofff... Barking at the Salah Tree...ಠ ೧ ಠ

pBlue The two viruses can infect the same person, even the same cell. However they cannot swap genetic material. The structure of their genes are too different... the same way you cannot get a cabbage to breed with a mouse.

A double infection would make a bad situation worse. However we will be spared any strange hybrids of the two viruses.

Aiyoo... what's happening in humanity...(●__●)

pjseow geary , the earning growth rate for the past 20 years was about 20 %. I will do a DCF computation.with different assumptions.
19/09/2020 11:09 PM

#10 years a better option...less Margin of Errors...#20% earnings growth...yup.

pjseow geary, RHB previous tgt price was rm11.10 when they used terminal growth rate of 3 %.
19/09/2020 11:03 PM

That's quite fair...so present price can buy or not...???

pjseow RHB is the only analyst used DCF to compute tgt price which is 9.50. The question of what PE.and which year earning to use.to compute tgt price should not arise since all future earnings.from 2021 till infinity are considered . We can only question their profit assumptions , discount and growth rates after.2023. In my opinion, the assumption of 2023 earning.at.4.478 billion is on the high side and the terminal growth.rate of 1 % is too low . The discount.rate of 7 %
is fair .
19/09/2020 10:51 PM

Terminal growth rate 1%...they must out of touch...at least 3%.

A slight changes of discount n terminal rates...the said Intrinsic value at present will be much different...even Buffett n Munger came out with different valuation... that's they never talk so much about DCF.

Fong Zhin Bok Covid 19 virus and H1N1 virus will be present at the same this winter. Both of the virus will infect the same cell and exchange genetic materials while consuming the DNA of the infected human host cell. Therefore, the next generation of Covid 19 or H1N1 virus will be the hybrid of the two virus.

The next generation of virus will have the following property:
a) transmitting rate is same as Covid - 19 virus, 10 times of transmitting rate than H1N1 virus.
b) mutation rate is same as H1N1 virus, higher than the Covid-19 virus.
19/09/2020 10:43 PM

(●__●)

geary : [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD

May 7, 2019 1:02 PM | Report Abuse

Over Diversification... Probably No...there aren't many wonderful companies...a Bird in the hand is Worth two in the Bush...!!!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/garymishuris/2019/05/05/5-insights-from-t...

Probably some thought I was a robot...¯\_༼ᴼل͜ᴼ༽_/¯

jasonred79 eh. did this actually happen? guys? I don't remember glove prices "falling steeply" in june. Was I just not paying attention, or did this actually happen?
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/06/30/glove-prices-soften
19/09/2020 9:46 PM

Bunch of rubbish analysis...maybe they think impregnated 9 women...9 babies can come out in one month...so it takes how many month for a baby to born...ಠ︵ಠ

Herosan Supermax FYE 2021 annualized EPS should be around 1.5-2.00. At present price of 7.6 is very much under value (below PE 5 FYE 2021)
19/09/2020 9:20 PM

Just buy n hold loh.

humongainz @jasonred79 mind sharing how to get in touch with IPO? I am interested but no expereince.
19/09/2020 8:21 PM

IPO are usually issued during bullish market...so many are probably...Initial Public Overpriced or Overhyped...Be careful.

That is abt 1200% return in 20 years which is abt 60% return per annum.

Note: Calculations based on ZERO pandemic in next 20 years, zero dividend rate and zero bonus issue.
19/09/2020 7:56 PM

That guy only 2K...can have 1,750% per year...woof...!!!

Just buy n hold lah. U can gambler a bit also. Just 2,000 shares. After almost 20 years...@2001...IPO...@2.70...Rm 5,400...now become millionaire...how many baggers...I don't know leh...(●__●)

Note: Calculations based on ZERO pandemic in next 20 years, zero dividend rate and zero bonus issue.
19/09/2020 7:56 PM

2001...Glove business expensive...RM 2.70/share...I think his father just anyhow buy with some money...that time Public Bank was selling at around maybe RM 3/4.

geary loong66 My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had 2000 TG shares from Mar 2001 IP0. After check with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issue, 2000 shares now amount to 244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM

This must be true investment story...that time @2001...TopGlove IPO was...@2.70...I think. #2,000 shares only. He just kept it n forgot about it. U see...because I had same experience with my dad HLbank. But no so Kaya lah.

Just buy n hold lah. U can gambler a bit also. Just 2,000 shares. After almost 20 years...@2001...IPO...@2.70...Rm 5,400...now become millionaire...how many baggers...I don't know leh...(●__●)

Rm5,400 become...Rm1,905,496...Wow... gains 35,000%...350 baggers...!!!... Hold... unless u need some money urgently.

Morpheus61 humongainz, geary as stated the link to imgur post is below.

https://imgur.com/o3g0ZDS
19/09/2020 6:26 PM

Thanks. Hahaha...those iBs Risk management still think gloves isn't such a golden goose...by the way. Let see how high it can go next year...will probably stabilised after the 2nd quarter reports.

Makeabuck @geary of course la...everyone should have a plan on whether to buy and when to buy...as everyone have their on ep for their own investment...we all mature here and should decide for ourselves...

Just having a good read on yall discussions...im learning too...never stop getting other perspectives for own analyzing purpose...

Just that some ppl will flock to the forum and post nonsense makes it boring to read...
19/09/2020 6:13 PM

Yup...many people just lazy to analyse deeply...and take responsibility when they invest. They never monitor their investment. Never try to understand the financial statements. That's very high risk. So if something went wrong they blame those who said buy. They never ask themselves what are their weakness n mistakes. That's why there are people blaming here n there...but never blame themselves. Never analyse where are the mistakes, n don't do it again. Sometimes I just keep quiet, but today, since few good guys are analysing, I just say something. Keep on learning anyway.

humongainz Now, instead of thinking of investing TG as primarily a glove company, if you intend to go long, ask yourself this question, would you invest in a company specializing in an array of different rubber/healthcare related products, in Malaysia where they are just primed to do so. I predict that the next factories to be built in Thailand and Indonesia as they had expressed the intention of owning their own rubber plantations to reduce volatility of rubber pricing and shortages. Another good reason to build factories/plantations over there would be the wider sales channel besides lower overheads. In fact, Vietnam is one of the cheaper places for this, so Lim must have this in mind oso, assuming he is a visionary. Then again, he actually built factories before pandemic started, so I don't know, everything seems to be just lined up for him.

Then again, better for them to just their name to TG, instead of TopGlove, must nicer sounding for a more diversified business.
19/09/2020 6:11 PM

I think Tan Sri Lim, already had a small rubber plantation in Southern Thailand. Small plant processing natural rubber. Maybe he can collaborate with Petronas to build more synthetic rubber manufacturing plant in Malaysia. That's will benefit it's nitrile gloves cost of production n margins. I think he will, because this two years, he got the free cash flow.

Makeabuck I finally reading some good discussions thanks @humongainz @geary @jasonred79 @growingrich
19/09/2020 6:01 PM

Don't see so far...less than 3 years enough...don't jump over a ten feet barrier...look for a 2.5 feet to jump over. Now is Covid19... remember it n analyse it thoroughly...plus it's mutating, very scary right. So can buy or not... TopGlove...this...Price...nobody point a gun forcing u okay. U decide after all the facts n database, understand first then decide.

Vc Looi The world in the recent years never short of pandemic, in around 3-5 years there will be pandemic here and there be it flu be ebora be it covid-19 and in future there sure be another pandemic, dont just focus on and only think that covid is the only pandemic..
19/09/2020 5:47 PM

Normally a ten years average earnings growth of 25% is okay. 5 years much higher. 2.5 years very much higher. So we focus less than 3 years... that's 2.5 years. So the the earnings growth very high. I can slap a 50x PE multiple for all glove counters...no problem. Any PE below 50x is consider reasonable. That's below 3 years average, because of present Covid19 maybe other type of bacterial infections, etc. So at present TopGlove is selling at below 35x PE it's okay for u to invest...ask yourself...if not don't buy...if yes just buy. What so difficult.

jasonred79 Opposite happened to me. I bought a bunch of eurospan like 15 years ago because they were giving good dividend, then I somehow forgot about them. Took a look recently and they lost 35%... haiz!!!
19/09/2020 5:13 PM

Eurospan...what product or service...many old people buy share to keep n take dividend...like my dad. Lucky he bought HLbank. Got bonus one time only. The rest dividend n right issues. That's why I said just now:
1. Dividend Growth Investing.
2. Value Growth Investing.

No question about it.
19/09/2020 5:22 PM

Plus must always monitor your investment at least half yearly...any earnings or dividend down are red flags. Sell.

Axe888 @wengtat,pls ask your fren and IB throw as low as possible for charity ,so that more ppl can afford to collect it. If possible below rm5.
19/09/2020 4:49 PM

Yup...wait long long...the opposite will happen...with such rumours.

loong66 My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had 2000 TG shares from Mar 2001 IP0. After check with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issue, 2000 shares now amount to 244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM

This must be true investment story...that time @2001...TopGlove IPO was...@2.70...I think. #2,000 shares only. He just kept it n forgot about it. U see...because I had same experience with my dad HLbank. But no so Kaya lah.

wengtat I dont usually use the forum. But I felt like i needed to let someone know before something bad happens. Would be terrible if they really work together. All the best guys
19/09/2020 4:34 PM

Friend or not... because of money n prestige...no one will tell u the real truth... don't be naive.

humongainz jasonred79 Interesting perspective. If the IB win, I have nothing to say dy, and will never in my life touch Bursa again.
19/09/2020 4:32 PM

In the bloody long run...the Glove Whales still Win... it's your own stamina n emotion that's make the difference.

I see many cannot endure those emotional...STRESS...to earn big money.

TigerWoods geary
No fool proof okay...mother shares is still golden goose...^_^

Yes ... i only hold mother shares.... For the loooooggg term. I never contra
19/09/2020 3:56 PM

By two more quarters...TopGlove...will be damn good...@18.00.

geary TigerWoods Morpheus61
humongainz, it's all about the warrants
125.5 million underlying TG shares at an avg Strike price of RM 6.18
That should give you a fair idea

WOW !!! cant wait to queue at that price. Will get my bullets ready
19/09/2020 3:46 PM

No fool proof okay...mother shares is still golden goose...^_^
19/09/2020 3:49 PM

Lowest on SEP 10...was...#6.15...then limit up...@8.03...am time...so analyse that okay...mother share is still the golden goose.

humongainz More like very high risk high gain, with small market like Bursa, you don't just have IBs, you also have sifus sending buy sell calls, if youre lower in the Peking order of the news chain, you'll get thoroughly screwed.
19/09/2020 3:44 PM

Yup...be prepared.

Morpheus61 humongainz, it's all about the warrants
125.5 million underlying TG shares at an avg Strike price of RM 6.18
That should give you a fair idea
19/09/2020 3:42 PM

Banyak Pandai...but we shall see...how those manipulators react to Mr. Market. No fool proof strategies.

humongainz Small gloves even easier to manipulate. Good if you know the manipulators well. Shit if you don't.
19/09/2020 3:39 PM

High risk high gain...but please know your trading strategies.

ThePowerOfGlove Well if you got substantial spare cash you could indulge in some range play I guess

Could be quite lucrative but at the same time also somewhat high risk
19/09/2020 3:35 PM

Just remember to sell high buy low...but where is the low point...that u have to study the historical charts... sometimes u must put a cut lost at certain price. Preserve your free cash by all means.

Morpheus61 BountyoftheBourse. If that question was for me, my response: What affects me is the manipulation.
19/09/2020 3:29 PM

I always like Volatility n some irrational manipulation...B-)

BountyOfTheBourse No I don't want to sell I don't want to run

And many other guys here feel the same like me too

Okay?
19/09/2020 3:21 PM

I see many aren't focus n patience enough...most are contra or margin traders. I only use 10% for that. Investing for big money need to be very, very patient...if u understand your investment. It's a Marathon n a Sprint.

geary supersinginvestor Geary@wat ur glove u like ?
19/09/2020 3:13 PM

At present only TopGlove...@50% my capital...n some in Supermax...@20%...N...#30%...free cash...8-)
19/09/2020 3:16 PM

Just an illustration...I can change like a...Chameleon...very quick...^_^

geary. There are only two profitable investing:
1. Value Growth Investing.
2. Dividend Growth Investing.

All Must have growth...no growth or erratic earnings n dividend...share price will go sideways...n downtrend...no question about it.
19/09/2020 2:29 PM

Plus market volatility is always there...Mr. Market can be very irrational at time...n can be very rational at time... it's a matter of how you manage your Risks.
19/09/2020 2:38 PM

Diversification only taught in business school. So we are real life investors n traders. So be focus...on earnings growth or dividend growth investing. Go for the jugular if u spot a very good chance. If not just hold or stay on shore. Do remember to sell some on strength to have cash on shore. Usually Mr. Market is volatile anyway which way u see it.

Dividend cannot make u filthy rich. Maybe the most 10% yield/year. Focus more on capital gains...study some TA...besides FA...plus market directions or trends.

Edwardong53 Don't know true is it that my friend was telling us that IBs have been doing "Permitted Short Selling" or PSS which is allowed by Bursa bcos many of their warrants are expiring in last quarter of 2020. Therefore, these IBs are manipulating the glove counters like TopGlov & Supermax with high volatility every day.
19/09/2020 2:12 PM

There are only two profitable investing:
1. Value Growth Investing.
2. Dividend Growth Investing.

All Must have growth...no growth or erratic earnings n dividend...share price will go sideways...n downtrend...no question about it.
19/09/2020 2:29 PM

Plus market volatility is always there...Mr. Market can be very irrational at time...n can be very rational at time... it's a matter of how you manage your Risks.

Our geary is definitely a long time loyal TopGlove supporter

So you could just imagine it

How much profit he is now sitting on

If he had bought like 500 big lots of TopGlove at then cheap time
19/09/2020

I bought in stages lah...since gloves got overcapacity problems...net margins was only 7/8%. My lowest price was...@4.40...in May 2019. Then I did sold some when it was above 11.00. bought back again above average...@20.00. I win quite a lot...I didn't compute...my average price probably below...@6.00.

hahalolwtf yes, i agree. Weak retailers out. Now left banks with expiring CW that are going to sell down. Just wait.
19/09/2020 1:53 PM

Good chance to add...CW or whatever derivatives are good for long term investing...for earnings growth counter. I have been Q'ing at below...@6.00 for long time...only got some at...#6.18...last SEP 10. So how they hedge also cannot beat big whales of gloves lah.

Invest1688 Geary: surprise you are still in this forum
Few days ago you said TG will drop till $4
I thought you already sold at $4?
19/09/2020 1:43 PM

Probably u didn't know who l am...I was in TopGlove since May 2019.