@Mohammad Hafiz Ramly, the criterias to look for coke prices relevant to Linyi Yehua Co. (or Huaan subsidiary) should be:
1) coke SPOT price
2) spot price in LINYI city, Shandong province (where Linyi Yehua Co. located)

1) we look for spot price because ".............coke supply contracts are short term and priced based on spot prices." http://www.sinohuaan.com/keyhighlights.html

2) we look for spot price in Linyi city, Shandong province because coke prices vary widely in different region of China and Linyi city commands much higher coke price than many other regions coke price in China. Hence only spot price in Linyi city would most closely reflect Linyi Yehua coke price.

So sites which offer coke FUTURES prices are out. They include sites like:
https://m.investing.com/commodities/metallurgical-coke-futures-historical-data
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J0.shtml ...... and many others.

The site you cited http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-346.html is also out because though it is coke spot price, but its price is the average coke prices of various regions of China, which definitely would not closely match Linyi Yehua coke price (which would be higher).

The site I refer to for coke spot price in Linyi city is
http://www.52steel.com/marketlist.aspx?lm=11&cs=2303&pz=1307&gc=&pg=1

You have to specifically look for 临沂市场冶金焦价格行情 in the list to find the daily rates specific to Linyi city (u may need someone who can read chinese to help you).

So if you select 17日临沂市场冶金焦价格行情 you will goto the link http://www.52steel.com/market/2017-11-17/0df1b9eb-3114-4cee-9151-ca6a33d9553b.html
which tell you Linyi city out of factory price for class 2 coke is 1700 per ton.

This Linyi spot price dated 17/11/17 of 1700 is very different from the Jan 2018 future price of 1832 on 17/11/17 (as in http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J0.shtml)

You may also check other cities/regions coke prices and you will find that many of their prices vary widely from Linyi city. That is why we must select Linyi city coke spot price.

I have checked steel52 site daily Linyi coke spot price from 3/7 to 30/9, which range from 1600 to 2250, and it produce average coke price of 1981. This is quite close to the Huaan 3Q average coke price of 2043.

Have fun with the 52steel site !!

Coal tar price today yet again increase 80 to rmb3286. It has increased more than rmb300 per ton (>10%) since early oct ! www.sci99.com/monitor-386-1.html

Let huaan drop. Allow those who miss the bus to come on board !!

Earlier have guessed can go down to 25 and now reached. Wonder how low can it go. Hope my tp on 2nd half 2018 is as just as chun !!

@等钱掉 any rational for 0.12?

The oct coke average price of rmb 2,000 is based on linyi yehua region 2nd class coke price 临沂二级治金焦价格 which stretched from rmb 2200 early oct to rmb 1800 by 31/10.

Wow, Q3 rpt is revealing yet another secret. This time it is telling us that annual production has increase from 900,000 tons to 1.6 mil tons (or ovens 4 & 5 alrdy in operation).

But first thanks to bunnypro who earlier mentionded a thread in investalks, which mentioned about increased inventories in Q3 rpt, which in turn hide the secret to be revealed here.

Q1 and Q2 inventories were about the same at 62.5 mil and 63.7 mil, but Q3 inv was much higher at 113.6 mil. Q3 inv have increased by 81% and 78% against Q1 and Q2 inv respectively.

The link http://www.sci99.com/zixun/26282777.html dated 19/10 said linyi yehua factory was full load at 1.6 mil tons. This is an increase of 78% from the qtr report 900,000 tons annual producton. This 78% increased annual production closely MATCH the Q3 inventories increase of 81% and 78% against Q1 and Q2 inv.

Based on the reasoning that any increase of production would bring forth an increase of inventories of about the same proposition, hence from the Q3 increased nventories, conclusion can be drawn that huaan production has increased from 900,000 tons to 1.6 mil tons (or ovens 4 & 5 alrdy in operation) !!

With oct average coke price about rmb2,000 and with the increased vol, huaan can get about 1.5 sen profit in oct. As long as coke margin does not go into negative in nov and dec, with the boost from by-products higher selling prices, Q4 will give very good result ! ......... hold tight bros !!

Thanks eskaylien, glad u find it helpful.

Short term price stimulus.
1. Upliftment from para 8.03A
2. Funds come in
3. Good 4Q of at least 2 sen EPS (if coke price at least keep at current level)
Let us wait for them one by one. Rome was not built in one day.

@bunnypro, it is ok if oven 4 & 5 not open yet, only that need to take longer to reach 1.00. If they are open now, aftet q4 qtr rpt, it will be high speed rail to 1.00 !

If we factor in that oven 4 & oven 5 already in operation (see http://www.sci99.com/zixun/26282777.html) and start to bring in revenue, then expect Q4 EPS = 4.0 sen and above !!

We have concentrated on coke but overlook the IMPORTANCE of Huaan by-products.

As coke price came down in Q4, coke profit margin in Q4 will be lower than Q3.
However this lower coke profit will be offset in large part by the by-products.This is because
(1) by-products is a BIG profit contributor to Huaan and
(2) unlike coke price which has slided in Q4, by-products prices keep going up in Q4 !!

Huaan Q2 and Q3 gross profit are 26 mil and 42 mil respectively. For the Q3 extra 16 mil gross profit, 9.5 mil is contributed by the coke better margin while the other 6.5 mil is contributed by the by-products better margin. That mean by-products contributed 40% of 3Q extra profit !!

Huaan biggest by-product is tar (> 50%), then follow by crude benzene and ammonia sulphate.
http://www.sinohuaan.com/productions.html

Based on the coal tar and the crude benzene indexes, coal tar and crude benzene prices keep on going up in Q4.
http://www.sci99.com/zixun/26282777.html <- Linyi Yehua coal tar price on 19-10-2017
http://www.sci99.com/tag/7235-21097.html <- coal tar index (chart) 煤焦油
http://index.sci99.com/coalchem-760.html <- coal tar index
http://index.sci99.com/coalchem-778.html <- crude benzene index 粗苯

So we expect the by-products to bring in bigger profit in Q4.

Based on the fact that by-products is a big profit contributor and their prices go up further in Q4, the following Q4 earning forecasts are made.

(i) If Q4 coke margin is less than Q3 but better than Q2, then EPS = 3.0 sen
(i) If Q4 coke margin is same as Q2, then EPS =2.5 sen
(ii) If Q4 coke margin is slightly less than Q2, then EPS = 2.0 sen

Good progress ! As operation already back as normal, approval is only procedural. Wait for funds to come in !

Regularisation approval could be anytime from now. After regularisation, ppl have to chase again.

Last qtr from 27 to 17, so this qtr may from 35 to 25. just a guess.

After regularisation, fund may come in. From 2 to 3 years perspective, it is a good buy at 30 sen. I expect 1.00 to be reached by 2nd half of next year.

If huaan can weathered through the next 2Q without going into red, it will come back strongly in 2Q'18, then we will see 1.00. Now is still early time.

huaan oct average coke price about 2000, still make good profit, But now price about 1850, very small margin or just break even.

SUSTAINABLE is the word. may be can hold until TP 1.00 !!

Based on eskaylien analysis above, look like Huaan not likely to be affected by the state production cut as it is a compliant plants.

@singunsin, the state production control affect different companies differently. If you believe sci data is accurate, u may subscribe to them. Sci will tell u the company production volume and the production cut.

Anyway it is still an EARLY pleasant surprise.

@singunsin, earning not as high as I expected, but still not bad at 3 sen.

I have factored in increased volume by recommencing of oven 4 & 5, based on sci report. http://www.sci99.com/zixun/26282777.html . But there is no increase of sale volume in Q3.

Maybe they need some time for products to roll out after recommencement, just like in 1Q, where after take back production in Feb, 1Q volume is very low.
If that is the case, then we shall see increase volume in Q4 for the oven 4 & 5 loads
(Sci is supposed to be reliable data source)

Oven 4 & 5 recommenced about early Aug, which almost double its 2Q production volume. Coupled with the high coke prices in 3Q, huaan earning in 3Q should be good. My guess is 3Q eps conservatively at 3sen, highly possible above 3.5 sen.

3100 is the by-product coal tar price, not the coke price.

False alarm, show is postponed. Nevertheless latest by quarter report, show will start.

HOT NEWS !!

Shandong Linyi Yehua Coking Co., Ltd. coal tar factory price 3100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, really simple talk, shipping normal. The plant 1.6 million tons of coke oven, started at full load, low inventory.
山东临沂烨华焦化有限公司煤焦油出厂报价3100元/吨，上调100元/吨，实单详谈，出货正常。该厂160万吨焦炉，开工满负荷，库存低位。
http://www.sci99.com/zixun/26282777.html

If as at 19.10.2017, 1.6 million tons oven in full load, that mean oven 4 & 5 already recommenced operation and huaan is not affected by the state winter production control starting from 1/10/17 till 31/3/18.

If the report is accurate, that mean production and profit will be double. Look like 1.00 is not a dream after all.

tmr show time.

Another cha cha session. Nothing to do with coke futures. Otherwise would have down rather than up this morning , as coke price alrdy dived at last night market.

If buffett888 can buy at 0.20, then by recent hardseller trend, it can go down to 0.18 !

Lately hardsellers have been buying at high price. Hanwen yeh at 0.225 and buffett888 at 0.22. Maybe ppl don't buy their stories !

Oven 4 & 5 recommencement need state approval. But any state coke production cut will not affect oven 1,2 & 3 as that is alrdy 50% cut from huaan total capacity.

pp price not yet set. Can't fly too high.

Forced selling today. If this continue, u just may get 0.18!

tmr t+4 is a big monster.

full brunt of combined t+3 and t+4 may come late afternoon ? we shall see.

Today and tmr are last wed/thu t+4.

等钱用 would be really prophetic if his lowest 0.12 is reached, which if happen, should be within about 1 month time, before pp price is set. Let's wait and see.

If further 2016 pp scenarios repeat again, we are going to see 2 strong qtrs coming. About time for bottom fish perhaps?

Perfect time for pp, right after negative qtr and just before jkr money report in the coming qtr. The buyer really know how to buy cheap.

So my hunch earlier on Apr was proven correct. Private placement after Datuk Lee dispose, just like in early 2016.
New hunch : lowest at 0.12, which is 2 sen down from indicative issue price of RM0.14.
(In early 2016 pp, indicative issue price is RM0.17, then the lowest reached was 2 sen down at 0.15)

Earning dilution by the LA, WB, WC and EOS is HUGE.
Atta only 94 million shares, but outstanding LA alone is already 184 million (conversion at 1.00) !

Depend what price u want to buy:-
1) best buy = 0.15
2) 2nd best buy = 0.155
3) good buy = 0.16
4) 2nd good buy = 0.165
5) 3rd good buy = 0.17

Don't joke leh, historically it never went below 0.15.

16 sen good buy, maybe 15 sen best buy.

Back to 11 - 12 sen, where it all started.

Slowly down to 10 sen.

From past year record, 16 sen is a good buy. Maybe the last opportunity to buy at 16 sen (if it get that low again) before JKR money come in on July and really turn the table.

Music stop. Definitely will go below 10 sen.

Heng Kee, i merely based on last year record whereby after major dispose, then did a private placement at low price, and major recently disposed again, so maybe pp again. Just a hunch.

Good time for private placement if that is what the management planning as JKR money coming in July will only show in qtr report 6 months later, ppl may not have patience to wait that long.