Hi kcchongnz,

It is long time you never share your investment return for your latest stock pick service.
Just curious how is the return despite the fluctuation at 1st half of 2018.

another case of buy on rumors, sell on news... anyway, TG good in long term...

first IB re-rate post Aspion confirmation, CIMB IB Research raises target price for Top Glove to RM10.


“We raise our FY18-20F EPS by 3-20% to reflect Aspion’s earnings contribution to the group.

“Maintain Add on Top Glove, with a higher target price of RM10.00, now based on 22.4x CY19F P/E vs. 19x previously, a 20% discount to our target P/E for Hartalega (28x),” it said.

imho, TopGlove should set maximum cap at the finessis incentive.

if finessis super hot selling, PAT 20m, TopGlove pay incentive only already vomit blood... TopGlove got think about it??

yes, the variable now is finessis incentive.

Assume 1,300m loan, 3% interest, 39m interest per year, 81m extra profit from Aspion for first year.
meaning extra profit 42m or eps 3.35

break even level is finessis PAT 12.367m, TopGlove need to pay 41.875m incentive. All extra profit 42m will be use to pay incentive...

can have more complicated calculation, I leave it to IB professional and account analyst...

in summary,
TopGlove need to pay Aspion one time 1,370m (cash+shares) + "Finesis incentive" in 3 financial years.
Aspion guarantee PAT for 2 financial years. Total 80.9+108.3 = 189.2m (Any shorfall, Aspion will pay but capped at 100m)

Hi Chin Leong, "Finessis incentive" is pay by topglove to vendor (aspion)

As TopGlove shareholder, I am not happy with the "Finessis incentive"... need to multiply 16.93!!!

FYE 31 October 2018, Finessis incentive = Finessis PAT × 20.0% × 16.93
FYE 31 October 2019, Finessis incentive = Finessis PAT × 30.0% × 16.93
FYE 31 October 2020, Finessis incentive = Finessis PAT × 50.0% × 16.93

Walaoye... if my understanding is correct...
if Finessis PAT in FY18 is 1m, TopGlove need to pay 3.396m to Vendor
if Finessis PAT in FY19 is 1m, TopGlove need to pay 5.079m to Vendor
if Finessis PAT in FY20 is 1m, TopGlove need to pay 8.465m to Vendor!!

So Finessis PAT 3m, TopGlove need to pay approx. 17m to Vendor? Correct?? T-T

Issuance of 20,505,000 Consideration Shares to the Vendor of about RM6.6813 each.

20.505m / 1,257m = 1.63% new share...

Announcement out. Buy entire equity interest in Aspion, for a purchase consideration of RM1,370.0 million.

Quite surprise no IB report after AGM. Still waiting IB report until today...

Orange88, some IB did not include Aspion in their earning forecast in FY19... if Aspion is confirm, hope those IB re-rate and raise TP for Topglov...

good news... hoping re-rating from IB analyst report

Aspion acquistion 100% confirm deal or still in progress?

tomorrow AGM... MSWG will ask the status of Aspion acquisition... hope for the best...

顶级手套(股东大会/特大)前线把关

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180108/%E9%A1%B6%E7%BA%A7%E6%89%8B%E5%A5%97%E8%82%A1%E4%B8%9C%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%9A%E7%89%B9%E5%A4%A7%E5%89%8D%E7%BA%BF%E6%8A%8A%E5%85%B3/

我们也持续内部扩展，两间新手套厂将于2018年开始营运，其中31厂房2018年5月营运，32厂房2018年12月营运。

顶级手套的保险套厂房设施，则于2018年4月投产。

截至2017年12月共有33间厂房，28间在大马、4间泰国，另一间在中国；共有550生产线，年产能519亿个手套，有1万2000名员工。

2017年11月，顶级手套签约收购Aspion有限公司，完成收购后将崛起为全球最大医疗手套生产商。

公司亦签买卖合约以4625万令吉全购印刷与包装原料商，预期这项收购带来协同利益，改善共同链协调，体现更佳成本与品质管控。

同年5月，集团收购汝来与麻坡2间天然胶手套厂，年产能达11亿个，相信可开创更大中国市场。

另外进军保险套业务，这与手套的行销、生产程序与原料密切相关；保险套需求增长可提供良好赚益。

break record high... if no 1:1 bonus issue on 21-Jan-2016, price is 8.79x2=17.58 now...
waiting Aspion news... hope got good news before AGM...

PE50 a new high record set by Harta...

can Harta break 20B soon? it should be included in Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index in next review.

Harta break 18B!! All huat!!

Price 7.98 +0.50 (6.68%)
Market Cap: 10,023 Million
NOSH: 1,256 Million

Congrats!!! 10B company!!!

Harta ttm eps 22, pe 49! Topglove ttm eps 29, pe 25. Hmmmm... what is mr. Market thinking??

Break 9b... 10b should not be a problem after aspion acquisition

eps 8.41... exceed my expectation.... congratulation!!

latex drop to rm4.62/kg now... the highest in this year was rm7.98/kg in February... this is good for FY18Q2 vs FY17Q2 if this latex downtrend continue...

imo, FY18Q1 may not have good result as FY17Q4 because FY17Q4 has the orders delay from FY17Q3. I am happy if FY18Q1 eps got 7.0 cent.

NOTIFICATION OF FIRST QUARTER 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS RELEASE

The Board of Directors wishes to inform that the Company will be releasing its first quarter financial results for the period ended 30 November 2017 on Tuesday, 19 December 2017.

however, please verify my calculation before make decision... i am human and might be wrong...

to me... this news is positive... with potential 24% eps growth and only 1.5% eps dilution...
only potential downside is net cash company become net debt company...

"The purchase consideration is intended to be satisfied via a combination of cash and the issuance of new ordinary shares in the company (Top Glove). The new shares to be issued will comprise not more than 10% in value of the purchase consideration. The issue price of the new shares will be determined at a later stage," Top Glove said.

10% of 1.28b = 128m
assume issue price = 6.70
number of shares = 19.1m

NOSH 1,257 Million

19.1/1257=1.5%... meaning EPS diluted around 1.5% after new shares issued...

pls correct me if I am wrong...

not sure why Adventa shoot up this afternoon because of this news??

just found out Aspion is under Adventa Capital Pte. Ltd, if not mistaken, it is not under Aventa listed company in Malaysia

finally have update news even though it is not final 100% yet...

topglove last 4Q net profit = 332m, Aspion 80m PAT...
80/332 = 24% potential increase in net profit...

PE 16 to 18 means Topglove need to fork out 1.28b to 1.44b...

harta reach 15b market cap... topglov only 8.5b market cap... when topglov can reach 15b market cap?? harta net profit 365M, topglove net profit 332M...

i am not interested in how many PhD, Master or Uni Degree hired by your research lab... I am more interested in what new technology and new innovative product introduced by your research lab... like what have been achieved by Harta...

harta 15b market capitalization... more than IJM (11b market cap) and BAT (11b market cap)... expect to be included in KLCI index in coming review...

Executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai said the company is about to announce what potentially can be its biggest takeover to date.

“It is a very interesting acquisition and a good one and we are 99% sure it’s in hand. We’ll announce it within the month. It can be a more than a billion ringgit acquisition. We will give you more details soon,” he said at a press and analyst briefing at the company’s headquarters here on Tuesday.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/19/rm1bil-buy-by-top-glove-soon/#kLaFzG9ToLSQDCF1.99

99%...

previous hike is due to 1B acquisition... but worries starting now... no news for 1 month...

imho, senior management should not mention anything before the 1 billiion acquisition... if management already mention it, please update the progress...

latex rise to 5.75/kg

@Tatyang Liew, 谢谢你的讲解

I am learning warrant too. Please correct my understanding if wrong.

I found a reference "A Quick Guide to Cash Settlement on Expiry!"
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangawarrants/127289.jsp

Let say I have 100,000 units Annjoo-CD

Case 1: What if Ann Joo price is RM3.50 by 8 Dec 2017 later, what will happen to Annjoo-CD?
Cash Settlement Amount
= Number of Annjoo-CD exercised x [(Cash Settlement Price - Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio ]
= 100,000 x [(3.50-3.00) / 3.5]
= 100,000 x RM0.1429 per warrant
= RM14,290 approx

If bought 100,000 units Annjoo-CD at price 0.145.
profit/lost = 14,290-14,500 = -210 (lost)

Case 2: What if Ann Joo price stays at 3.20 by 8 Dec 2017, what is expected to Annjoo-CD?
Cash Settlement Amount
= Number of Annjoo-CD exercised x [(Cash Settlement Price - Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio ]
= 100,000 x [(3.20-3.00) / 3.5]
= 100,000 x RM0.05714 per warrant
= RM5,714 approx

If bought 100,000 units Annjoo-CD at price 0.145.
profit/lost = 5,714-14,500 = -8,786 (lost)


Case 3: Ann Joo price below 3.00 (Assume 2.99)
Cash Settlement Amount
= Number of Annjoo-CD exercised x [(Cash Settlement Price - Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio ]
= 100,000 x [(2.99-3.00) / 3.5]
= Out-Of-The-Money

If bought 100,000 units Annjoo-CD at price 0.145.
lost = -14,500


Ideal case: What if Ann Joo price stays at 3.80 by 8 Dec 2017, what is expected to Annjoo-CD?
Cash Settlement Amount
= Number of Annjoo-CD exercised x [(Cash Settlement Price - Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio ]
= 100,000 x [(3.80-3.00) / 3.5]
= 100,000 x RM0.2286 per warrant
= RM22,860 approx

If bought 100,000 units Annjoo-CD at price 0.145.
profit = 22,860-14,500 = +8,360


* The Cash Settlement Price of RM3.50 is the average daily volume weighted average price (VWAP) of the ordinary shares of GENM for the five (5) market days prior to and including the market day immediately before the Expiry Date.
* The Cash Settlement Amount will be delivered to the warrantholders by ordinary post within seven (7) market days from the Expiry Date.

net profit 77m... eps 6.20... annualize 24.80... price 6.20 if PE given 25... HARTA PE is >30...

steel price in China http://top.100ppi.com/zdb/detail-week---13.html

@Sephy, I hope profit hit 100m too. Do you have any source for management guide 100m profit?

I have a beginner question. If I hold call warrant until expiry and the option is in the money, what should I do to get return/money from investment bank? Or the return will be auto bank in to my account?

Nice article for beginner in warrants...

http://www3.lgm.gov.my/mre/daily.aspx today latex price drop below 5.80 per kg...

ooppsss.. sorry... my mistake...

revenue 80 to 85m, but PAT estimated to be higher rebound sharply...

艾芬黄氏资本研究（AffinHwang Capital Research）在研究报告中指出，由于低基数效应，加上平均售价走高，赚幅也随之扩大，顶级手套的盈利或按年大幅反弹。

“我们预计，2017财年第三季盈利水平介于8000万至8500万令吉。”

KUALA LUMPUR (June 8): Shares in Top Glove Corp Bhd rose as much as 10 sen to a one-year high of RM5.60 per share in early trade today, after AffinHwang Capital Research raised its target price on the stock to RM6.50 this morning, citing expectations of an earnings rebound and an improvement in average selling price (ASP).

--------------------------------------

In its note, AffinHwang said it expects Top Glove's earnings to rebound sharply year-on-year on its low base, as well as a margin expansion driven by the improved ASP.

“We expect 3QFY17 earnings to range from RM80 million-RM85 million,” the research house said.